Market Overview - On January 26, the market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 0.91%[4] - The total trading volume on January 26 was 3.28 trillion, an increase of approximately 160 billion compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - Over half of the sectors saw declines, with non-ferrous metals, coal, and oil sectors leading in gains, while military, automotive, electronics, and social services sectors faced the largest declines[1] - The semiconductor and aerospace sectors, which had previously seen significant gains, experienced notable declines, indicating a rare phenomenon of widespread losses in technology sectors since the beginning of the year[1][2] Regulatory Impact - The primary reason for the market adjustment is attributed to regulatory measures aimed at cooling down the market, particularly following rapid increases in sectors like commercial aerospace[2] - Significant sell orders were observed in large-cap stocks, reflecting the regulatory intent to maintain market stability[2] Fundraising and Investment Trends - In the last week of January, 43 new funds were launched, with equity funds remaining the dominant category, indicating strong investor interest in the market[12] - Since the beginning of the year, 76 new funds have been established, raising a total of 71.94 billion, with an average fund size of 9.47 billion[13] Consumer Trends - In 2025, household appliances, mobile phones, and new energy vehicles showed significant growth, with sales of household appliances increasing by 17.4%, mobile phones by 18.6%, and new energy vehicles by 24.3%[7] - The elderly care services sector also saw substantial growth, with spending on elderly care and nursing home services increasing by 24.9% and 15.4%, respectively[11]

融 期 货 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变动 | 持仓量 | 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 4707 | ↑0.10 | | 7968.3 | | | | | | IF2602 | 4713.8 | ↑0.10 | 6.84 | 469.7 | 33112 | ↑4297 | 41677 | ↓328 | | IF2603 | 4719.4 | ↑0.11 | 12.44 | 1605 | 112956 | ↑28482 | 191907 | ↑18020 | | IF2606 | 4701.6 | ↑0.24 | -5.36 | 443.5 | 31319 | ↑10613 | 77122 | ↑4614 | | IF2609 | 4653.4 | ↑0.34 | -53.56 | 170.7 | 12162 | ↑5675 | 17758 | ↑6428 | | 上证50 | 3049.6 | ↑0.57 | | 239 ...

媒体报道，2026年春节9天假期被称为"史上最长"假期，不少人已提前制订出游计划。某旅游集团媒介 公关经理表示，国内旅游市场出游人数预订量较去年同期激增300%，可以明显感受到国内民俗游、冰 雪游、避寒游成了游客今年首选的出游方向。尽管距离春节假期还有一段时间，不少热门线路已进 入"抢订"阶段，部分产品名额所剩不多。 责任编辑：栎树 华创证券认为，春节假期预订窗口已经打开，国内航线及出境航线预订同比表现较好，海南持续受益于 封关带来的客流量。同时，促进服务消费相关政策持续落地有望催化板块行情。建议持续关注春节前交 通、酒店等预订数据变化及服务消费相关政策带来的投资机会。 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 万联证券表示，展望2026年，中央经济工作会议继续将坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场列为首要任 务，促消费政策导向保持稳定，但受居民资产负债表调整影响，基本面复苏仍需时间，上半年社会服务 板块预计以结构性机会为主。今年春节将形成9天长假期，旅游市场景气度有望进一步提升。 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's statement that he does not rule out the possibility of reaching a diplomatic agreement with Iran has led to a short - term decline in risk - aversion sentiment and an increase in market risk appetite. The dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. - The upcoming policy to promote service consumption may have an impact on the A - share market. The market is currently in a state of rapid rotation, and the overall risk is controllable. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures [17]. - The long - term bearish logic of the bond market remains unchanged. Although there is a short - term rebound, it is advisable to short after the upward momentum fades [20]. - The steel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to hedge on rallies. The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The动力煤 market is expected to have strong price support. The iron ore market is expected to be weak in February [23][25][27][28]. - The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to weather conditions in South American production areas. The vegetable oil market is affected by various factors, and it is not recommended to take unilateral positions in rapeseed oil. Attention can be paid to arbitrage strategies [29][33]. - The lead price is expected to remain in low - level consolidation. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. The zinc price can be considered for buying on dips, with caution in chasing up. The lithium carbonate price is likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, and long - biased strategies can be adopted with attention to risk control [34][40][45]. - The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term. The tin price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. Attention should be paid to supply recovery and consumption improvement [49][53]. - Oil prices are affected by geopolitical situations. Attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation. The asphalt price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes [54][57]. - The urea price is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, with a possible further correction around the Spring Festival. Low - buying opportunities for the 05 contract can be considered after the relative valuation provides a safety margin [60]. - The styrene price may deviate from the industrial logic in the short term due to the intensification of short - squeeze sentiment. It is recommended to shift from low - buying to cautious waiting. The PVC price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space may be limited. The caustic soda near - month contract's rebound height is expected to be limited, while the far - month contract can be considered for light - position long - side layout on dips [63][65][67]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump will raise the tariff rate on a variety of South Korean goods to 25% due to the South Korean Congress's failure to approve and implement the previous trade agreement [10]. - Trump does not completely rule out the possibility of resolving the Iranian issue through diplomacy, leading to a short - term decline in risk - aversion sentiment and an increase in market risk appetite. The dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. - Investment advice: The dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump announced an increase in the tariff rate on South Korean goods to 25%. - The US durable goods orders in November increased by 5.3% month - on - month, exceeding market expectations, mainly driven by aircraft orders. The market risk appetite has marginally improved. - Investment advice: During the earnings season, US stocks are expected to be more volatile and maintain high - level consolidation [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Policies to promote service consumption are即将推出. The A - share market is in a state of rapid rotation, with overall controllable risk. - Investment advice: Continue to hold long positions in stock index futures [18]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 780 million yuan on the day. - The long - term bearish logic of the bond market remains unchanged. Although there is a short - term rebound, it is advisable to short after the upward momentum fades. - Investment advice: Short the bonds after the upward momentum fades [21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Policies to optimize consumer goods replacement and promote the consumption of large - scale durable goods such as automobiles will be implemented. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to hedge on rallies in the short term. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy and hedge on rallies [24]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is fluctuating, with prices rising and falling. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. - Investment advice: The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [25]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The FOB price of Indonesian Q3800 Panamax steam coal is maintained at $50 - 51 per ton. The price is expected to have strong support in the short term. - Investment advice: The steam coal price is expected to have strong support due to seasonal supply decline and high demand in February [27]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore market of MGX Resources showed a divergence in production and sales in the fourth quarter. The iron ore price is expected to be weak in February. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to be weak in February [28]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased last week. The futures price is expected to remain volatile. - Investment advice: The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to weather conditions in South American production areas [30]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil production in Malaysia from January 1 - 25 decreased by 14.81% month - on - month, and exports increased by 7.97% month - on - month. The rapeseed oil market is affected by the uncertainty of China - Canada relations. - Investment advice: It is not recommended to take unilateral positions in rapeseed oil. Attention can be paid to arbitrage strategies [33]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $44.56 per ton on January 23. The domestic lead ingot inventory increased. The lead price is expected to remain in low - level consolidation. - Investment advice: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [36]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - South 32's zinc concentrate production in Q4 2025 increased by 25% quarter - on - quarter, and 29Metals' zinc production in Q4 increased by 72% quarter - on - quarter. The domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased. - Investment advice: Buy on dips for unilateral positions, with caution in chasing up. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [40]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will introduce overseas traders to lithium carbonate futures and options. Sigma Lithium sold 100,000 tons of high - purity lithium ore concentrate powder. - Investment advice: Adopt a long - biased strategy, look for low - buying opportunities after the position volume and volatility stabilize, and pay attention to risk control [45]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The roadblock in the Escondida copper mining area in Chile has been lifted. Zangge Mining's subsidiary's copper mine phase - II project was put into operation. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [49]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME 0 - 3 tin was at a discount of $245 per ton on January 23. The exchange strengthened risk prevention and control. The tin price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. - Investment advice: The tin price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to supply recovery and consumption improvement [53]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is preparing to resume production. Oil prices are affected by geopolitical situations. - Investment advice: Pay attention to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation [55]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt refinery inventory decreased, while the social inventory increased. The asphalt price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. - Investment advice: The asphalt price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. Pay attention to geopolitical changes [57]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate increased. The urea price is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, with a possible further correction around the Spring Festival. - Investment advice: The urea price is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term. Consider low - buying the 05 contract after the relative valuation provides a safety margin [60]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The styrene inventory in East China ports increased. The styrene price may deviate from the industrial logic in the short term due to short - squeeze sentiment. - Investment advice: Shift from low - buying to cautious waiting for styrene. The far - end expectation game of pure benzene may not end [63]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price increased. The PVC export tax - rebate policy will be cancelled on April 1. The PVC price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space may be limited. - Investment advice: The PVC price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space may be limited [65]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda price in Shandong decreased. The caustic soda market has high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. The near - month contract's rebound height is expected to be limited, while the far - month contract can be considered for light - position long - side layout on dips. - Investment advice: The near - month contract's rebound height is expected to be limited. The far - month contract can be considered for light - position long - side layout on dips [67].

中金公司（601995）认为，1)2025年受到上年同期高基数、极端天气等影响，国内休闲需求增速有所放 缓。2)出入境游延续较快增速。展望2026年，看好休闲旅游需求韧性，关注春秋假、最长春节等政策的 带动作用。此外，在当前旅游需求日趋多元化背景下，看好具备优质资源禀赋和强运营能力的头部旅游 目的地表现，关注各景区新项目投产、存量项目调整等潜在催化。 央视新闻消息，根据国内居民出游抽样调查统计结果，2025年，国内居民出游人次65.22亿，比上年同 期增加9.07亿，同比增长16.2%。2025年，国内居民出游花费6.30万亿元，比上年同期增加0.55万亿元， 同比增长9.5%。 东莞证券认为，从2025年节假日出游表现来看，旅游需求仍较旺盛，但需求释放向节假日集中，可能导 致假期旅游资源供需错配问题加重，但反过来看也可能促使政府落实年休假制度、通过秋冬假期等模式 释放出游需求。2025年来政策路线更加注重服务消费，旅游出行作为服务消费的重要组成部分有望获得 更多政策支持。短期内长线游复苏或提振人均旅游支出，改善旅游企业收益。 ...

春节将至，辞旧迎新的大扫除成为不少家庭的"必修课"，各地家政市场火热起来。与此同时，年货消费 和关注生活服务消费也升温。58到家最新数据显示，进入1月，家政清洁、宠物寄养、旧物回收、租车 返乡等多类服务需求集中显现，其中宠物寄养与家政深度清洁需求均增长超四成。 春节生活服务消费趋热，既是传统节日消费规律的体现，也是我国消费结构转型升级的必然结果。随着 社会经济发展，人们生活品质的提高，消费理念和习惯跟着发生重要转变，春节的内涵已超越了单纯的 物质采购，生活服务和精神需求在春节期间迸发出越来越多的活力。 让春节生活服务消费更顺畅，作为相关商家要抓住商机，主动作为。一方面强化内部管理，出台支持举 措鼓励服务人员节日留岗，确保节日之际服务需求集中释放时"接得住、不断档"，争取做到"随叫随 到"；另一方面加强与技校等机构的合作，招聘专业人才，开展相应培训，增强从业人员服务技能，满 足大众高标准、多元化的消费需求。与此同时，作为中介服务机构、第三方平台，需进一步提升其数字 化服务水平，便利大众通过手机应用、微信公众号、短视频平台等渠道轻松下单，享受高效便捷的家政 服务。 除此之外，作为行业协会、政府相关部门，有必要制定 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4132.61, down 0.09%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.85% at 14316.64 [5][8] - The overall market saw a trading volume of 32,806.44 billion, an increase of 1,625.37 billion from the previous trading day, indicating active trading despite the market's downturn [9][11] Economic Insights - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 150.5 billion at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 7.8 billion for the day [21] - By the end of 2025, the total number of new energy vehicles in China is expected to reach 43.97 million, accounting for 12.01% of the total vehicle population [22][23] - Domestic travel by residents is projected to increase by 907 million trips in 2025, with total travel expenditure reaching 6.3 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [24][25] Industry Dynamics - Tianjin has adjusted its housing provident fund loan policies, raising the maximum loan limits for first and second homes to 1.2 million and 1 million respectively [26][27] - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines to promote the sustainable development of intercity railways, emphasizing planning, operational optimization, and risk management [32][34][35] Company Updates - Micron Biologics (688321.SH) expects a revenue of 910 million for 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 38.32%, with a projected net profit of 53 million, marking a turnaround from losses [36][37] - Miaokelan (600882.SH) plans to recognize a fair value change loss related to an acquisition fund, which may significantly impact its net profit for 2025 [38][39] - Six Nations Chemical (600470.SH) anticipates a net loss of 480 million to 410 million for 2025 due to intensified competition and export restrictions [41][42] - Huaxin Co. (600621.SH) expects a net profit increase of approximately 77.48% for 2025, driven by growth in investment and brokerage business revenues [43] - Hunan Gold (002155.SZ) forecasts a net profit increase of 50% to 90% for 2025, attributed to rising sales prices of gold, antimony, and tungsten products [44][45]

Group 1: Consumer Promotion and Service Sector Growth - In 2026, the Ministry of Commerce will optimize the implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy to boost sales of durable goods such as automobiles and home appliances [2] - The service sector is identified as a key driver for domestic demand expansion and transformation, with initiatives to enhance the supply levels in cultural, entertainment, tourism, and healthcare sectors [2] - The Ministry will continue to promote service consumption quality improvement actions and remove unreasonable restrictions in service consumption areas [2] Group 2: Foreign Trade Stability and Innovation - The Ministry of Commerce aims to stabilize the foreign trade base through a combination of policies and support for cross-border e-commerce development [4] - Service trade and digital trade are highlighted as important areas for innovation, with plans to establish national service trade innovation development demonstration zones [4] - The Ministry will promote the "Export China" brand and leverage major trade exhibitions to expand imports from countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [4][5] Group 3: Attracting Foreign Investment - In 2026, efforts will be made to enhance the attractiveness of foreign investment by expanding access in sectors like telecommunications, healthcare, and education [7] - The Ministry will implement policies to support foreign enterprises in participating in consumption stimulation and government procurement activities [7] - A national-level overseas comprehensive service platform will be established to provide a one-stop service for companies going abroad, integrating various service resources [8]

他指出，2026年，商务部将持续推动扩大服务消费、促进服务消费高质量发展。一方面，优化供给，坚 持"对外开放、对内放开"，扩大服务业高水平开放，深化云计算、生物技术、外商独资医院等领域开放 试点，引导外资投向服务消费领域，丰富高质量、多元化的服务供给；同时清理不符合市场规律、阻碍 消费升级的服务消费领域不合理的限制措施，减少隐形壁垒。 另一方面，培育新增长点，加力培育交通服务、家政服务、网络视听服务、旅居服务、汽车后市场服 务、入境消费等服务消费新的增长点。此外，还将加力推进消费新业态新模式新场景试点建设，促进商 旅文体健融合发展，打造一批带动面广、显示度高的消费新场景。 编辑：徐芸茜 1月26日，国新办就2025年商务工作及运行情况举行新闻发布会。会上，商务部副部长鄢东介绍，2025 年全年社会消费品零售总额首次突破50万亿元，达到50.1万亿元，增长3.7%，消费对经济增长的贡献率 达到52%，提高了5个百分点。 其中，服务消费零售额同比增长5.5%，居民人均服务性消费支出同比增长4.5%，占居民人均消费支出 的比重为46.1%。文体休闲、通讯信息、旅游咨询租赁、交通出行等服务零售额保持两位数增长。居民 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 宏观深度报告 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 26 日 从"有钱"到"有闲"：中国假日经济变革影响几何？ 核心观点 在服务消费成为扩内需主线的背景下，假日经济正在从一个偏微观的出行热度概念， 升级为可被宏观政策配置与评估的时间要素工程。2024 年以来，假期制度的逻辑从做 大节日脉冲走向平滑释放服务消费，围绕扩内需与促进服务消费的政策框架，假日制 度的变化呈现出三条较为清晰的主线：其一，法定假日适度增加，并强调少调休、少 连班的约束；其二，假期结构从集中长假与调休拼接向更均衡、更可预期、错峰分散 优化，以降低拥堵、涨价与体验波动对消费的折损；其三，把带薪年休假从有制度进 一步推向可得、可用、可休，并与小长假连休、弹性错峰等组合，目标是把服务消费 从少数假期的脉冲，转成全年更稳定的释放；与此同时，春秋假从地方探索开始获得 更高层级政策支持，成为淡季填谷的重要抓手。 基于此，我们假设四种情形分别测算假期制度改革对 GDP 的拉动作用，结果显示政 策效果依次为带薪年假落实明显改善＞不加天数、假期结构更均衡＞春秋假由试点扩 散至全国＞法定假日净增 2 天。总体来看，相较 ...