Fiscal Data Overview - In September, total public fiscal revenue reached 15,678.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to August[5] - Tax revenue for September was 11,579.0 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points from August[5] - Non-tax revenue fell to 4,099.0 billion yuan, down 11.4% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 7.6 percentage points from the previous month[5] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - For the first three quarters of 2025, government fund budget revenue totaled 30,717.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points[17] - In September, government fund expenditure was 12,322.0 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year[20] - Central government fund expenditure in September was 481.0 billion yuan, up 19.7% year-on-year, while local government fund expenditure fell by 0.3% to 11,841.0 billion yuan[20] Central Fiscal Contributions - The central fiscal budget is a significant contributor to overall fiscal expenditure, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3% in September, contributing 2.0 percentage points to the overall fiscal expenditure[22] - The central government plans to allocate 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support effective investment, increasing the total scale by 100 billion yuan compared to last year[22] Economic Risks - Risks include heightened overseas recession concerns and increased geopolitical uncertainties, which may impact fiscal policies and economic growth[22]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of implementing Xi Jinping's recent speeches and directives, particularly regarding women's roles in society and their development [1][2] - The city has maintained a stable economic performance in 2023, with a focus on growth, technology, industry, risk prevention, and improving people's livelihoods [2] - The fourth quarter is critical for achieving the goals set for the 14th Five-Year Plan and ensuring a good start for the 15th Five-Year Plan, with a call for enhanced responsibility and action [2] Group 2 - There is a strong focus on enhancing demand potential, expanding effective investment, and promoting urban renewal initiatives [2] - The meeting highlighted the need for a comprehensive approach to stabilize the industrial base, improve service quality, and support enterprises facing difficulties [2] - The city aims to ensure social stability, safety production, and ecological protection while effectively managing risks in key areas [2]

Economic Outlook - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the dual challenges facing the Chinese economy, including insufficient demand and structural transformation, with a focus on the real estate market and foreign trade as key variables [1][3][12] - 71% of economists predict that the GDP growth rate for Q3 will be between 4.7% and 4.9%, while 75% expect the full-year GDP growth for 2025 to be between 4.8% and 5.1% [1][3] Real Estate Market - 90% of economists believe that the real estate market is currently in a phase of slowing decline and has not yet reached the bottom [1][7] - The real estate market is seen as a critical support for economic growth, with recent policy adjustments aimed at stabilizing the market [7][8] - The market is experiencing a divergence in recovery, with core cities responding more positively to policy changes compared to second and third-tier cities [8] Employment and External Factors - Employment pressure is identified as a significant concern, with 33% of economists highlighting it as a key issue, alongside external influences such as financial and foreign trade factors [1][12] - Trade friction is viewed as the largest external disturbance affecting the economy, with 73% of economists identifying it as a major concern [1][12] Inflation and Price Trends - The article discusses the potential for PPI (Producer Price Index) to rise significantly in the second half of 2025, driven by anti-"involution" policies [4] - CPI (Consumer Price Index) is expected to see a slight increase in 2025, but will remain at historically low levels due to insufficient domestic demand [4][10] Policy Measures - The article outlines the need for continued policy support to address the challenges in the real estate sector and employment, emphasizing the importance of a coordinated approach between fiscal and monetary policies [12][16] - Suggestions for enhancing the real estate market include optimizing credit and tax policies, promoting urban renewal, and ensuring financial stability for real estate companies [8][12]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the need to implement the important speeches and instructions from General Secretary Xi Jinping during his visits to Shaanxi, ensuring adherence to the decisions of the Central Committee, State Council, and provincial government [2] - The focus is on balancing development and safety, continuing the "Three-Year" activities, and tackling the "Eight Hard Battles" to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [2][3] - There is a commitment to enhance safety production across various sectors, including mining, hazardous chemicals, fire safety, and construction, while effectively preventing major accidents [2][3] Group 2 - The meeting called for improved economic operation scheduling, management of deviations, and high-quality project construction to support industrial stability and service sector enhancement [2] - Efforts will be made to stimulate potential consumer spending and expand effective investment, while addressing challenges faced by key industries [2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of rectifying issues identified in inspections, audits, and supervision to ensure the completion of annual targets for growth and employment [2][3]

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of project construction and consumption stimulation to promote stable growth and high-quality development in the fourth quarter [1][2] - The local government is focusing on enhancing service awareness and innovating business models in newly opened international business hotels to meet diverse consumer needs [1] - The completion of the State Grid Shaanxi Electric Power Company's smart grid dispatch communication project will enhance the province's power supply capabilities and modern management [1] Group 2 - The current phase is critical for achieving annual economic and social development goals, with a strong emphasis on stabilizing industrial growth, expanding investment, and promoting consumption [2] - The government is committed to improving policy implementation efficiency and closely monitoring key industries, projects, and enterprises to ensure effective economic operation [2] - The aim is to achieve substantial physical work output in the fourth quarter, ensuring a successful conclusion to the 14th Five-Year Plan and a strong start to the 15th Five-Year Plan [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The bond market is affected by the stock market rebound driven by tariff black swan events, with a decline in risk appetite. The continuous expectation of Fed rate cuts and rising global trade uncertainties increase the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 0.30% year - on - year decrease; China's monthly PPI has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year decrease [9] - Monthly updated economic indicators: Social financing scale is 437.08 trillion yuan, with a 3.42 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and a 0.79% increase rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.40%, with a 0.40% month - on - month decrease and a 4.55% decrease rate; Manufacturing PMI is 49.80%, with a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a 0.81% increase rate [10] - Daily updated economic indicators: The US dollar index is 98.68, with a 0.36 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.36% decrease rate; The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.1274, with a 0.015 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.21% decrease rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.41, with a 0.01 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.63% decrease rate; DR007 is 1.42, with a 0.01 point month - on - month decrease and a 1.01% decrease rate; R007 is 1.53, with a 0.02 point month - on - month increase and a 1.49% increase rate; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.59, with a 0.01 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.38% decrease rate; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a 0.00 point month - on - month increase and a 0.38% decrease rate [10] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Not elaborated in detail in the text, only mentions related charts such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation fund trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, etc [12][16][25] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - The text mentions related charts such as the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and the local bond issuance situation [26] 4. Spread Overview - The text mentions related charts such as the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures and the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [26] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [30][33][41] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [43][50] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [51][52] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [58][60][64]

Group 1 - Steel stocks have shown significant gains, with China Oriental Group rising by 6.67% to HKD 1.44, Maanshan Iron & Steel increasing by 6.92% to HKD 2.78, Angang Steel up by 5.96% to HKD 2.31, and Chongqing Iron & Steel rising by 2.88% to HKD 1.43 [1] - Guotai Junan Securities reports that the negative impact of real estate on steel demand has significantly weakened, with demand expected to gradually bottom out; the prolonged losses in the supply side indicate that market-driven supply clearance is beginning to occur, suggesting a gradual recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [1] - According to Sinolink Securities, under the backdrop of anti-involution, capacity management in the steel industry is expected to strengthen through safety production inspections and curbing disorderly competition and excess capacity release; the low export ratio of ordinary steel companies makes them less affected by overseas tariffs, and demand for steel in real estate and infrastructure is expected to marginally improve under the "stabilizing growth" policy [1] Group 2 - Current profits per ton of ordinary steel are considerable, and under the "anti-involution" context, there is significant room for performance improvement for ordinary steel companies, indicating a potential value recovery and favorable allocation opportunities for the steel sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The steel sector is experiencing significant stock price increases, indicating a potential recovery in the industry as demand stabilizes and supply-side adjustments begin to take effect [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Oriental Group (00581) increased by 6.67%, reaching HKD 1.44 - Maanshan Iron & Steel Company (00323) rose by 6.92%, reaching HKD 2.78 - Ansteel Company (00347) saw a 5.96% increase, reaching HKD 2.31 - Chongqing Iron & Steel Company (01053) grew by 2.88%, reaching HKD 1.43 [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The negative impact of real estate on steel demand has significantly weakened, with expectations for demand to gradually bottom out [1] - The steel industry has been experiencing prolonged losses, leading to market-driven supply adjustments, which are anticipated to improve the industry's fundamentals [1] - If supply policies are implemented, the contraction of supply may accelerate, facilitating a quicker recovery in the industry [1] Group 3: Industry Management and Outlook - Under the backdrop of reducing competition, enhanced capacity management in the steel industry is expected through safety production inspections and curbing excessive competition and surplus capacity [1] - Companies with lower export ratios, particularly ordinary steel producers, are less affected by overseas tariffs, and demand from real estate and infrastructure sectors is expected to marginally improve under the government's "stabilizing growth" policies [1] - Current profits per ton of ordinary steel are substantial, and under the "anti-involution" context, there is significant potential for performance improvement among ordinary steel companies, indicating a favorable investment opportunity in the steel sector [1]

Core Insights - The recent "anti-involution" policies in China aim to combat unhealthy competition and promote high-quality economic development through a series of measures targeting ten key industries [1][3][4] Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released new growth plans for ten major industries, which collectively account for approximately 70% of the industrial economy [1] - These plans set clear quantitative growth targets, such as an annual average growth of 5% in the petrochemical and non-ferrous metal industries from 2025 to 2026 [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have issued guidelines to address chaotic pricing competition while maintaining fair market conditions [1][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In August, profits of industrial enterprises showed a significant turnaround, increasing by 20.4% year-on-year, marking the highest growth rate since December 2023 [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained stable month-on-month in August, ending an eight-month decline, with a narrowing year-on-year decrease of 0.7 percentage points [3] - Profit growth was particularly noted in upstream industries such as coal, steel, and non-ferrous metallurgy, indicating a positive initial response to the "anti-involution" policies [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider ETFs that align with the "anti-involution" policies, which span both traditional and emerging industries [4][5] - Specific sectors highlighted for investment include non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, steel, cement, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic industries, each with supportive policy measures and improving fundamentals [5] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are expected to enhance gross margins and capacity utilization, thereby improving the long-term investment value of related sectors [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the acceleration of major project construction in various provinces as a key strategy to achieve economic growth targets for the year [1][2] - Jiangsu Province held a meeting on October 11 to coordinate major project construction and strengthen planning for next year's projects [1] - Hubei Province convened a meeting on October 9 to promote major project construction for the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting a strong focus on large-scale projects [1] - Anhui Province launched 587 major projects with a total investment of 332.38 billion yuan on September 30, indicating a robust project initiation trend [1] Group 2 - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated significantly this year, with a total of approximately 366.13 billion yuan issued as of September 28, surpassing the 3.6 trillion yuan mark [1][2] - New policy financial tools are being introduced to support project construction, with a total scale of 500 billion yuan designated for project capital [2] - Economic forecasts for the fourth quarter remain optimistic, with expectations of a GDP growth rate of around 4.5% for the quarter and approximately 5% for the entire year [2]