中金研究 中金公司研究部发布了2025年二季度图说中国，本产品汇集了中金公司研究部宏观、策略、量化及ESG、固收、大宗、外汇等各组对于当前中国经 济、市场和资产价格的最新观点和数据更新。近120页的图册提供了对于中国市场的一个全景式展示和介绍，这对于希望快速了解中国市场的投资者是 一个很好的总结和更新。 点击小程序查看报告原文 目求 | ● 中金研究团队介绍 p. 2 | | --- | | · 宏观经济 p. 3 | | ● 市场策略 p. 14 | | ● 量化及ESG p. 45 | | ● 固定收益 … p. 52 | | ● 大宗商品 ……………………………… p. 74 | | · 外汇研究 p. 94 | 注:除特别说明,本产品中所有价格数据均截至2025年4月21日 返回目塞 中金研究团队介绍 | 宏观经济 | 市场策略 | 量化及ESG | 固定收益 | 大宗商品 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | · 彭文生 | · 缪延亮 | · 刘均伟 | · 陈健恒 | · 郭朝辉 | | · 张文朗 | · 刘刚, CFA | · 周萧漬 | · 许艳 | · ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《信用拉久期的性价比如何？》 - 2025.04.16 固收周报 生产走势分化，大宗商品价格企稳回升 ——高频数据跟踪 20250419 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产端行业走势分化，项目开工范 围扩大，钢铁需求增长，焦炉、高炉开工率持续升高，沥青开工率低 位上行；PX、PTA 受检修季影响开工率持续下降；轮胎开工率稳中有 降。第二，商品房成交、土地供应面积小幅下降，基本与上年同期持 平。第三，大宗商品价格企稳回升，原油、焦煤价格涨幅较大，铜价 微涨，整体仍未收复前期跌幅。短期重点关注新一轮稳增长刺激政策 落地、房地产市场恢复情况及大宗商品价格走势。 生产：焦炉、高炉、沥青开工率升高，化工、轮胎下降 4 月 18 日当周，焦炉产能利用率升高 0.42 pct，高炉开工率升 高 0.28 pct，螺纹钢产量减少 3.15 ...

Economic Overview - The first quarter of 2025 showed a good economic start, with March export data exceeding expectations, driven by a "rush to export" effect, leading to a year-on-year export growth rate of 12.4%[6] - Core economic indicators such as consumption, investment, and real estate showed significant improvement, primarily due to the effectiveness of growth stabilization policies[6] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.3% year-on-year, with manufacturing and infrastructure investment being the main drivers[6] Trade and Policy Implications - The recent trade conflict that erupted in early April did not impact the first quarter's economic performance; instead, the "rush to export" provided some support[7] - The upcoming April Politburo meeting is expected to focus on macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth, with a high probability of further policy implementation[7] Domestic Demand Expansion - Expanding domestic demand is identified as the government's primary task for 2025, with a focus on childcare subsidies, real estate, and tourism[8] - Recent policies include increased childcare subsidies and support for the real estate market, indicating a commitment to releasing market potential[8] Market Expectations - Since late February, market expectations for the 2025 performance of the Wind All A Index have weakened, with the consensus forecast for net profit declining from CNY 66,149.50 billion to CNY 63,991.29 billion, a drop of 3.26%[10] - This decline reflects a market reassessment of the U.S. government's trade stance towards China, particularly following tariff increases[10] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.19%, while the CSI 300 rose by 0.59%, indicating a stronger performance compared to other indices like the ChiNext and the CSI 500, which saw declines[5] - The overall A-share market's price-to-earnings ratio is currently at 17.95, up by 1.02% from the previous week[5]

本文字数：1401，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 王媛丽 4 月 14 日 A 股 百 货 零 售 概 念 掀 涨 停 潮 ， 其 中 国 芳 集 团 （ 601086.SH ） 实 现 7 连 板 ， 南 宁 百 货 （600712.SH）、茂业商业（600828.SH）等多股涨停，板块热度持续升温。 2025.04. 15 国内扩内需稳增长政策持续推进，国内线下消费有望进一步复苏，多家线下百货商超一方面通过"改 调性"积极寻求服务模式变革，一方面通过"数字化+AI"助推降本增效，为传统商超零售业务带来新的 业绩增长刺激。 新世界年报表示，2024年推进公司百货零售业板块新世界城业态结构调整，布局首发经济，引进二 次元文化，打造差异化竞争优势；重庆百货则加快旗下百货、商超调改升级，2024半年报中表示， 百货毛利率同比增长，加快城市奥莱与购物中心业态打造。 降本增效方面，百货企业加速线上线下融合，通过AI技术优化库存管理、提升服务效率。新世界、 武商集团、中兴商业（000715.SZ）、茂业商业2024年销售毛利率较同期增加1.96、2.03、0.75、 3.1个百分点。 针对美关税影响，多家百货 ...

Economic Data Release - The National Bureau of Statistics will release Q1 GDP and various economic data on April 16, including March industrial added value, fixed asset investment, and retail sales of consumer goods [1] - Zhejiang Merchants Securities predicts that the industrial production in March will remain stable, with an expected year-on-year growth rate of 5.5% for March and 5.7% for Q1 [1] Consumer Expo and Conferences - The 5th China International Consumer Products Expo will be held from April 13 to 18 in Hainan, featuring over 1,700 consumer enterprises and more than 4,100 brands from 71 countries and regions [2] - New exhibition areas for consumer technology will showcase products like smart connected vehicles and smart home technologies [2] - Other significant events include the World Internet Conference Asia-Pacific Summit in Hong Kong and the 137th Canton Fair in Guangzhou, which will have over 30,000 participating enterprises [2] Oil Price Adjustment - The domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open on April 17 at 24:00, with a projected decrease of 430 yuan per ton based on a reference crude oil price of $64.99 per barrel and a change rate of -8.79% [3] Stock Unlocking - A total of 32 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked from April 14 to 18, amounting to 711 million shares and a total market value of 12.676 billion yuan [4] - The peak unlocking day is April 14, with 11 companies unlocking shares worth 5.427 billion yuan, accounting for 42.83% of the total unlocking scale [4] - The companies with the highest unlocking values include Zhuozhao Point Glue (1.799 billion yuan), Weijie Chuangxin (1.753 billion yuan), and Knight Dairy (1.289 billion yuan) [4] New Stock Issuance - Three new stocks will be issued from April 14 to 18, with a total of approximately 85.4 million shares and expected fundraising of 4.274 billion yuan [7] - The specific stocks include Tianyouwei on April 14, and Zhongjie Automobile and Jiangshun Technology on April 15 [7]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 关税超预期：经济、政策、债市影响几何？ ——债券周报 20250406 一、关税超预期：经济、政策、债市影响几何？ 北京时间 4 月 3 日凌晨美国宣布对等关税征收方案，其中对华对等关税加征 34%，叠加 2 月、3 月落地两次报复性加征关税"10%+10%"，对华累计加征关 税 54%，高于市场此前预期。 1、关税影响测算：或拖累名义 GDP 约 1.5~2.2pct。参考市场和学术主流观点， 中国对美出口金额的弹性系数约为-1.0 至-1.5。54%关税加征或对总出口拖累 7.9%-11.9%、下拉名义 GDP 约 1.5pct-2.2pct。由于暂未考虑部分出口需求或转 向非美经济体带来的抵消效应，实际冲击可能低于上述测算结果。 2、国内政策应对：经济下行压力加大，"稳增长"诉求回归。 （1）财政需要多少规模对冲？结合测算，54%关税对应下拉名义 GDP 约 1.5- 2.2pct、拖累经济总量 2.0-3.0 万亿。参考财政乘数 1.0-1.5，则对应需要 1.3 万 亿-3.0 万亿财政资金进行对冲，均值约为 2.18 万亿。 （2）国内政策组合如何演绎？节奏上 ...

点击上图 ▲立即预约 美联储连续两次会议暂停降息 3月20日，美联储在联储的货币政策委员会FOMC会后宣布，联邦基金利率的目标区间继续保持在4.25%至4.5%不变。 这是美联储连续第二次货 币政策会议决定暂停降息。 美联储宣布 ，将从下月起放慢缩减资产负债表（缩表）的步伐。这是联储自去年6月以来首次调整缩表。自2022年6 月至去年底，美联储已累计缩表近2万亿美元。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，衰退风险不高，美国经济仍然强劲，就业市场依旧稳固。现在判断是否能忽略最初与关税相关的通胀打击还为时过早。 如果长期通胀预期能控制得好，美联储就可以忽略关税这类政策的一次性冲击。（华尔街见闻） ｜点评｜ 美联储3月如期暂停降息，好消息是，美联储现在至少没有加息的打算。在美联储看来，关税对通胀带来的扰动只是暂时性的因素，无 须为此调整利率。目前，特朗普的关税政策雷声大，雨点小，真正生效 的关税加征并不算多，对美国通胀影响有限。然而，特朗普在未来政策 制定上存在较大不确定性，美联储也无法确认4月初特朗普是否会开始对全球国家实施对等关税，所以保持观望的态度越发明显。 长沙县推出购房7天无理由退订 3月20日消息，湖南长沙县 住房和 ...

看，主要工业品产量增速跌多涨少。其中，高基数下机器人、集成电路增速跌幅较大，较上月下行超8个百分 点。乙烯增速增幅最大，上行13.8个百分点至17.6%；新能源车增速高位上行至47.7%。工业高端化智能化发展态 势明显，数字产品制造业增加值同比增长9.1%，服务器产量增长73%。 地产投资有所回暖。 1-2月全国固定资产投资同比增速上升1.9个百分点至4.1%，两年年均增速上行至4.1%。 其中，民间投资增速自上月实现正增长后，本月下降2.9个百分点回落至0，两年年均增速下降至0.2%。 具体来 看三大类投资 ，房地产企业经营改善，带动地产投资降幅收窄至-9.8%。随着重大基建项目陆续启动，1-2月 旧口径基建增速升至9.9%，新口径基建投资降至5.6%，两年平均增速下行至5.9%。 新经济带动制造业投资高位上行。 制造业投资高位升至9%，结构上，产业升级和设备更新推动高技术、技改和 设备工器具投资高增。行业上，与生产相关的交运和通用设备制造表现较好。具体来看，高技术产业投资同比增 长9.7%，其中信息服务业、电子商务服务业、计算机及办公设备制造业、航空航天器及设备制造业投资分别增 长66.4%、31.9%、 ...

重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 注：表中红字为《政府工作报告》公布的目标，其他为实际值，"-"表示未披露。 01 实际增长目标持平，财政赤字隐含名义增长改善 摘 要 1、中国2025年经济增长目标5%左右，高于年初大部分机构预测，财政赤字隐含名义增长4.9%， 显示官方认为广义物价将得到明显改善。 2、CPI目标从3%下调至2%，是政策目标从过往防通胀到提升物价水平的转变，具有积极意义。 3、财政支出力度与2020年应对新冠疫情冲击时相近，结构更优，可实现性更强。货币政策基调保 持宽松，但对降息偏谨慎，现阶段对汇率稳定和宏观审慎管理更加重视。 3月5日，李强总理在全国人大会议上做《政府工作报告》，提出中国政府对2025年经济社会发展的总体 要求和政策取向，主要指标目标如下表。《政府工作报告》是对中央经济工作会议所作部署的细化和落 地实施计划，此次公布的经济发展目标整体符合市场预期，具体来看有以下几点值得关注： 中国经济发展主要目标一览 | 科目(单位:亿元) | 2025年 | 2024年 | 2023 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, which is higher than most domestic and international forecasts, indicating a commitment to stabilize economic growth and boost market expectations [3][6]. Economic Growth Targets - The actual GDP target for 2025 is set at 141.5 trillion yuan, with a nominal GDP growth rate of 4.9%, which is an improvement compared to the previous year's nominal GDP growth of 4.23% [3][6]. - The consumer price index (CPI) target has been lowered from 3% to 2%, signaling a shift in policy focus from preventing inflation to promoting price stability [3][8]. Fiscal Policy - The total fiscal deficit for 2025 is projected at 5.66 trillion yuan, with a broad deficit rate of 8.4%, similar to the levels seen in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic response [3][9]. - The structure of fiscal spending is optimized, focusing on four key areas: investment construction, land reserve, acquisition of existing housing, and settling local government debts to enterprises [3][9]. Revenue and Budget - The target growth rate for general public budget revenue is set at 0.1%, indicating a more cautious approach compared to the previous year's 2.9% [3][10]. - The government expects improved realizability of budget revenues this year, particularly due to anticipated recovery in real estate sales [3][10]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, with an emphasis on reducing social financing costs, although there is caution regarding broad interest rate cuts [3][12]. - The central bank has maintained a tight monetary market condition, focusing on the stability of the RMB exchange rate and the risks associated with low long-term interest rates [3][12].