Monetary Policy Overview - The monetary policy has shifted to a stance of "moderate easing" this year, with comprehensive measures including cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates implemented in early May, leading to accelerated social liquidity and reduced financing costs [1] - The stable economic foundation and growth are essential for high-quality development, with monetary policy playing a crucial role in adjusting money supply and influencing economic activities [1] Monetary Supply and Economic Indicators - As of the end of June, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.3% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) increased by 4.6%, indicating a significant rise in the activity level of monetary funds [2] - The new corporate loan weighted average interest rate was approximately 45 basis points lower than the previous year, and personal housing loan rates were about 60 basis points lower, contributing to a GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year [2] Financial Support for Key Areas - The central financial work conference emphasized the importance of supporting five key areas: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, which are crucial for high-quality economic development [2] - The monetary policy has effectively guided financial resources towards key sectors, with loans in these areas growing significantly, such as a 27.4% increase in green finance loans [3] Price Levels and Monetary Policy Effectiveness - Weak price levels have been a prominent issue in the economy, necessitating a focus on promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration for monetary policy [4] - Despite continuous interest rate cuts, low price levels have kept real interest rates relatively high, which may suppress consumption and investment demand, indicating the need for ongoing adjustments in monetary policy [4]

数据来源：Wind、Mysteel、富宝资讯、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发明货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整件不作任何保证。本报告反馈研究人员的不同观点、见解 的体制合合同意的。 但一会的权德主营。报影中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种实践的出价或询价、投资 改装定客户及其他专业人士、版权归广发期货所有、未经广发期货书面授权、任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发 。风险目控。本报告旨在发送给厂友拥资 知识图强, 求实奉献, 客户至上, 合作共赢 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人员的不同观点、见解及 分析方法，并不代表广发明货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所零达的意见歼不动成所法品种买来的出价或向价，投资寄据此 投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发明货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权旧厂发期货所有，未经了发期贫守面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制 。如引用、刊发，需注明 ...

——石化化工反内卷稳增长系列之四 石油化工/基础化工 增持（维持） 7 月 18 日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍 2025 年上半年工业和 信息化发展情况。工业和信息化部总工程师谢少锋表示，将实施新一轮钢铁、有 色金属、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案，推动重点行业着力调结构、 优供给、淘汰落后产能，具体工作方案将在近期陆续发布。 要点 点评： 事件： 2025 年 7 月 22 日 行业研究 老旧装置退出有望改善炼油景气度，炼化产业转型加速 炼油老旧装置占比较高，老旧产能淘汰助力行业竞争力提升 我国炼油行业起步较早，1958 年兰州石化投产填补了我国石油化工行业空 白，改革开放后炼油行业进入快速发展期，至 2000 年我国炼油能力为 3.6 亿吨， 2005 年我国原油加工量为 2.86 亿吨，为 2024 年原油加工量的 40%。炼油行业 发展过程中产生了大量建设历史较久老旧装置，根据中国石化 2001 年披露的 A 股招股说明书，2000 年中国石化拥有原油一次加工能力 1.3 亿吨，相当于公司 2024 年炼能的 44%，拥有 13 家炼能超过 500 万吨的炼厂和茂名、镇海、齐鲁、 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Short - term market trades on strong expectations under policy guidance such as "anti - involution" and "stable growth", and the improvement in the supply - demand situation of coal and coke drives the futures and spot prices to run strongly in resonance [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Report Content Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices rose strongly, with multiple coking coal contracts hitting the daily limit, and the night - session continued the strong trend [2] Policy Factor - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, and the specific work plans will be released soon, which stimulates the commodity prices to strengthen [2] Supply Side - Last week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi continued the resumption rhythm, but the overall resumption process was still slow. The pressure of high supply and high inventory of coal mines was significantly reduced. Last week, the daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines was 1.929 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,000 tons; raw coal inventory was 6.153 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 276,000 tons; clean coal inventory was 3.391 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 381,000 tons. In June, the import of coking coal was 9.108 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.69%; the cumulative import in the first half of the year was 52.8223 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.95% [2] Demand Side - Recently, coking plants and steel mills have accelerated the replenishment of raw materials. The available days of coking coal inventory in factories have rebounded from the low level. The average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces has rebounded to 2.4244 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons [2]

钢铁板块近期表现强劲，多只个股连续涨停。柳钢股份更是走出了16天10板的惊人表现，成为市场关注焦点。这一轮上涨背后，既有政策层面的积极信号， 也有行业基本面的改善预期。 钢铁板块集体发力 钢铁板块在近期交易中展现出强劲的上涨势头。7月22日，钢铁板块持续拉升，西宁特钢、柳钢股份双双涨停，八一钢铁涨超5%，三钢闽光、方大特钢、华 菱钢铁等个股纷纷跟涨。这种集体上涨的态势在此前几个交易日中已有所显现。 7月21日，钢铁板块同样表现活跃，西宁特钢、八一钢铁、柳钢股份、重庆钢铁等个股涨停，抚顺特钢涨超8%。板块内个股的轮番上涨，显示出资金对钢铁 行业的关注度明显提升。从7月15日开始，钢铁板块就开始出现短线拉升的迹象，柳钢股份、盛德鑫泰、河钢股份、钒钛股份等个股相继走高。 这种持续性的板块轮动表明，市场对钢铁行业的预期正在发生变化。多只个股的连续涨停，不仅带动了板块整体情绪，也为后续的持续上涨奠定了基础。 在稳增长和"反内卷"等政策推动下，尾部产能面临更大的竞争压力，粗钢供给有望进一步优化。叠加远期铁矿新增产能的逐步释放，钢企盈利能力有望得到 修复。这种政策环境的改善，为钢铁板块的持续上涨提供了基本面支撑。 责任编辑 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant rise in coal futures, particularly coking coal and coke, driven by supply constraints and seasonal demand increases [1][6][8] - The energy ETF (159930) saw a strong surge, with a trading volume exceeding 1 billion yuan and an increase of over 4% at one point [1][3] - Major coal stocks, including Shanxi Coking Coal and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, reached their daily price limits, indicating strong market performance [3][4] Group 2 - The government announced a new round of growth stabilization plans for key industries, including steel and coal, aimed at optimizing supply and eliminating outdated production capacity [4] - Coal production rates have been affected by environmental inspections, leading to a decrease in operational coal mines, which has tightened supply [4][7] - The price of thermal coal has rebounded, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price reaching 642 yuan per ton, a 5.4% increase from its lowest point earlier this year [5][6] Group 3 - The current market for thermal coal is characterized by high seasonal demand and tightening supply, with operational coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia at a low utilization rate of 81.1% [7][8] - The inventory of coal at ports has decreased by 18.7% compared to the highest levels earlier this year, indicating a tightening supply situation [7] - The demand for electricity has increased due to high temperatures, leading to a rise in coal consumption for power generation [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in rebar futures prices is attributed to the government's announcement of a new growth plan for key industries, including steel, which is expected to boost market confidence and demand [2][3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - On July 21, rebar futures opened at 3159 CNY/ton and peaked at 3240 CNY/ton, closing at 3224 CNY/ton, marking a 2.45% increase, the highest in nearly four months [1] - Coking coal futures also saw significant gains, with the main contract rising by 4% to 1012 CNY/ton [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new round of growth plans for ten key industries, including steel, which is expected to drive structural adjustments and eliminate outdated production capacity [2][3] - The announcement has led to market expectations for continued capacity elimination and the initiation of "Supply-side Reform 2.0" in the steel industry [2][3] Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The commencement of hydropower projects in Tibet is projected to increase steel demand by 1.2 to 2 million tons [2] - Despite being in a traditional demand off-season, ongoing infrastructure projects and marginal improvements in the real estate market have positively influenced market sentiment regarding rebar demand [2][6] Group 4: Raw Material Costs - The rise in rebar prices is also linked to increasing raw material costs, particularly coking coal, which has seen price fluctuations due to supply and demand dynamics [5][6] - As of July 21, coking coal prices have risen to 1012 CNY/ton, supported by strong demand from downstream steel and coking enterprises [5][6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the upcoming Central Political Bureau Economic Meeting may introduce economic stimulus policies that could further impact market dynamics [7] - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations for rebar prices to trend strongly in the third quarter, driven by policy expectations and seasonal demand recovery [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the non-ferrous metal sector, with the Zhongzheng Subdivision Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Theme Index (000811) rising by 1.88% as of July 22, 2025 [1] - Notable individual stocks include Yahua Group (002497) up by 9.99%, Western Gold (601069) up by 8.97%, and Steel Research High-Tech (300034) up by 6.96% [1] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) has seen a 2.00% increase, marking its fourth consecutive rise, with a latest price of 1.07 yuan [1] Group 2 - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF has experienced a significant increase in trading activity, with a turnover rate of 19.5% and a transaction volume of 56.2392 million yuan, indicating active market participation [1] - Over the past week, the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF has accumulated a rise of 4.16% [1] - The fund has seen a net subscription of 31 million shares, reflecting strong investor interest [4] Group 3 - Recent policy changes regarding lithium mining in China have introduced stricter management and approval requirements, impacting local mining operations [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release a growth stabilization plan for key industries, including non-ferrous metals, which aims to optimize supply and eliminate outdated production capacity [6] - Gold prices have surged, with COMEX gold futures reaching 3,410.3 USD per ounce, driven by rising risk aversion ahead of tariff deadlines [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is positive, and the prices of finished products are showing a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The upcoming release of the stable - growth work plans for ten key industries and the construction of the Medog Hydropower Station are expected to boost the demand for building materials, and the market is expected to strengthen due to the low inventory level [3]. - In the short term, with the support of fundamentals and positive market sentiment, iron ore prices may remain strong, but risk control is needed after increased volatility [6]. - For manganese - silicon and silicon - iron, in the context of high volatility and no obvious trend, it is recommended to wait and see. The fundamental logic still points downward, but the current positive market sentiment may affect prices [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term upward trend continues, but it still faces the problems of over - supply and insufficient demand. It is recommended that speculators be rational and industrial players consider hedging [14][15]. - For glass, in the short term, it is boosted by macro - policies and inventory reduction. Long - term price trends depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments. It is recommended to avoid short positions [17]. - For soda ash, it is temporarily strong due to market sentiment, but there are still supply - demand contradictions in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term and wait for opportunities to go short after the sentiment cools down [18]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton (2.446%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 897 tons, and the main - contract positions increased by 20,122 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,394 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton (2.537%), with a decrease of 293 tons in registered warehouse receipts and an increase of 4,222 lots in main - contract positions [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply - demand of rebar both decreased, and inventory slightly accumulated. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased, demand slightly increased, and inventory decreased. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are at a five - year low. The market is affected by policies and terminal demand, and attention should be paid to policy signals and demand recovery [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 809.00 yuan/ton, up 3.06% (+24.00), with a decrease of 29,220 lots in positions to 663,400 lots. The weighted positions were 1,120,900 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 25.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.06% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Overseas iron - ore shipments increased overall, with a decline in Australia and an increase in Brazil and non - mainstream countries. The near - end arrivals decreased. The daily average pig - iron output increased, and port inventories slightly increased while steel - mill inventories decreased [6]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Prices and Trends**: The manganese - silicon main contract (SM509) closed up 1.90% at 5,914 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract (SF509) closed up 2.90% at 5,668 yuan/ton. The manganese - silicon is still in a rebound trend, and the silicon - iron shows a wide - range shock [9][10]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is recommended to wait and see due to high volatility and no obvious trend. The fundamental logic still points downward, with over - supply, weakening demand, and potential cost reduction [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Trends**: The main contract (SI2509) closed up 6.50% at 9,260 yuan/ton. The short - term upward trend continues, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 9,700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: It still faces over - supply and insufficient demand. It is recommended that speculators be rational and industrial players consider hedging [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China increased. The total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises decreased. It is boosted by policies and inventory reduction in the short term. Long - term trends depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments. It is recommended to avoid short positions [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The demand is still weak, and the supply is relatively loose in the medium term. It is temporarily strong due to market sentiment, and it is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term and wait for opportunities to go short after the sentiment cools down [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant recovery in commodity prices, driven by policy support and improvements in supply-demand dynamics, indicating potential profitability recovery for companies in affected industries [1][2] - Recent price increases in commodities such as polysilicon, lithium carbonate, coking coal, and alumina suggest a positive shift in the market, with polysilicon futures rising over 28% in the last 10 trading days and lithium carbonate surpassing 70,000 yuan per ton [1] - The Chinese government's policies focusing on "anti-involution," "expanding domestic demand," and "stabilizing growth" are aimed at addressing low-price competition, enhancing consumption, and ensuring macroeconomic stability, respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The collaboration between "anti-involution," "expanding domestic demand," and "stabilizing growth" is essential for creating a conducive environment for economic recovery, with consumer spending contributing 52% to economic growth in the first half of the year [2] - The article suggests that with continued policy support, the commodity sector may transition from cyclical growth to sustainable growth, leading to a healthier industrial ecosystem and promoting high-quality economic development [2]