1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals returned to an upward trend. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 2.09%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.30%. The short - term safe - haven demand increased due to the trade war and the US government shutdown, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy rose with weak employment and moderate inflation, leading to the realization of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The precious metals are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare Silver ETF slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term safe - haven demand increased due to the trade war and the US government shutdown. The risk of stagflation in the US economy increased with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation began to be realized. Trump's trade war escalation, the US government shutdown, and the French Prime Minister's resignation increased market uncertainty. The Fed Chairman hinted at a possible halt to balance - sheet contraction, and Fed officials warned of negative employment growth. The market expected a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more rate cuts this year. The London silver 1 - month implied lease rate soared, and the silver spot was in short supply. The CRB commodity index rebounded under pressure, and the RMB appreciation was negative for domestic prices [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2][3]. - **Data Summary**: International gold prices (Comex gold and London gold) increased, with daily increases of 0.72% - 0.74% and weekly increases of 3.70% - 3.79%. Domestic gold prices (Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D) also rose significantly, with daily increases of 1.97% - 2.27% and weekly increases of 9.83% - 10.00%. Positions and inventories showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [3]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The price of silver is anchored by the price of gold. The net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare Silver ETF slightly increased, and the recent explicit inventory of silver slightly decreased [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary**: International silver prices (Comex silver and London silver) increased, with daily increases of 0.95% - 6.86% and weekly increases of 4.91% - 5.51%. Domestic silver prices (Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D) also rose, with daily increases of 3.74% - 3.75% and weekly increases of 9.60% - 10.17%. Positions generally increased, and inventories decreased [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The federal funds target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets increased by 42.68 billion US dollars (0.00%). M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 2.52%. The US dollar index decreased by 0.21% daily and increased by 0.19% weekly [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: The US Treasury yield spreads, US - EU and US - China yield spreads, and inflation - related indicators showed different trends. US economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and other aspects also had various changes [10]. - **Other Data**: Central bank gold reserves in some countries changed slightly. The proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves increased in some cases. The geopolitical risk index increased, the VIX index decreased, the CRB commodity index increased, and the offshore RMB slightly decreased [12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) signals a strong stabilization, with the central parity rate rising above 7.10 for the first time since late October of the previous year, indicating a potential new round of RMB appreciation [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - On October 15, the RMB central parity rate was reported at 7.0995, an increase of 26 points from the previous day, marking a significant upward movement [1]. - The offshore RMB against the US dollar saw a sharp increase, rising approximately 200 points within the day, while the onshore RMB remained stable around 7.12 [2]. - Key indicators reflecting domestic dollar liquidity, such as the year-on-year growth rate of foreign exchange deposits in domestic financial institutions, have surpassed the threshold of 6%-10%, suggesting the RMB is entering an appreciation cycle [2]. Group 2: Supportive Factors for RMB Stability - Multiple factors are expected to support the RMB's stability and potential appreciation, including the acceleration of new policy financial tools worth 500 billion yuan, which will help stabilize economic operations [3]. - The overall market expectations for the RMB remain stable, with a notable convergence of the central parity rate and onshore spot rates, indicating a reduction in divergence and a stable market outlook [4]. Group 3: USD Index Trends - The USD index has rebounded over 3% since the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on September 18, reaching a two-month high, driven by global uncertainties that enhance its safe-haven appeal [5]. - Analysts suggest that the recent strength of the USD index is largely a result of weakness in other currencies, particularly the euro and yen, influenced by domestic issues in Europe and expectations of monetary easing in Japan [5]. - Despite the current strength of the USD index, experts express concerns about its long-term outlook, citing risks associated with the prolonged government shutdown and potential impacts on economic data [6].

10月15日，A股主要股指集体收高。 上证指数涨超1%，重上3900点；创业板指涨超2%，热门科技权重全线反弹。电力设备及新能源、汽车、保险等板块涨幅居前。 Wind金融终端输入命令 WBUY（万得交易快线） 一次开户，基金市场一键链接 国家统计局发布最新物价数据显示， 9月PPI同比下降2.3%，降幅比上月收窄0.6个百分点；9月核心CPI同比上涨1.0%，为近19个月以来涨幅首次降至 1%。 此外，10月15日早上，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0995，上调26点， 为去年11月来首次升至7.10元上方 。离岸人民币兑美元一度直线拉升超100点。 广发证券认为，本次美国政府停摆对经济数据的影响可能更大，金融市场的不确定性加大，加速资金从美国向非美国家流动。美元指数及人民币汇率反应 较上一轮更迅速，美元贬值、人民币迅速升值。跨境回流对国内流动性的支撑预计持续到明年一季度，但年底可能面临购汇额度等因素短期扰动。 海外方面，当地时间10月14日，美联储主席鲍威尔暗示，可能在未来几个月停止收缩资产负债表，他承认货币市场出现了紧缩的"一些迹象"。 鲍威尔还暗示 ，即使政府停摆严重削弱了美联储对经济形势的掌握程度，但仍 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton fell 0.25% to 63.43 cents/pound on Tuesday, CF601 decreased 0.15% to 13,265 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest increased by 4,581 lots to 568,000 lots. The international market focuses on the macro - level, with the US government in a shutdown and a data vacuum. Short - term US cotton is expected to remain in low - level oscillations. In the domestic market, new cotton has a strong harvest expectation, with faster picking, delivery, and inspection progress. Supply pressure will persist. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure but has few major negative factors, so it is expected to operate under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's exports of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of October increased by 9.45% year - on - year. Domestic sugar spot prices were lowered, and the raw sugar's rebound from a 4.5 - year low drove a slight rebound in domestic futures prices. However, due to the over - supply problem, the rebound is weak. The domestic market lacks strong drivers, and it is expected to have a weak oscillation. Future attention should be paid to the beet sugar pressing progress and the estimated output of cane sugar [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 55, up 5; the main basis was 1,490, up 1. The Xinjiang spot price was 14,598 yuan/ton, down 44; the national spot price was 14,755 yuan/ton, down 34 [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 26, down 4; the main basis was 403, up 53. The Nanning spot price was 5,810 yuan/ton, up 10; the Liuzhou spot price was 5,800 yuan/ton, down 20 [2]. 3.2 Market Information - **Cotton**: On October 14, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity was 2,823, down 44, with 52 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 14,598 yuan/ton, Henan 14,868 yuan/ton, Shandong 14,758 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 14,947 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 50.9, up 0.2; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 26.1, up 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 52, unchanged; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 29.3, unchanged [3]. - **Sugar**: On October 14, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5,810 yuan/ton, up 10; the Liuzhou sugar spot price was 5,800 yuan/ton, down 20. The sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity was 8,488, down 193, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: There are charts showing the closing price of the main cotton contract, the main contract basis, the 1 - 5 spread, the 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, the warehouse receipt and valid forecast, and the China Cotton Price Index: 3218B [6][9][10]. - **Sugar**: There are charts showing the closing price of the main sugar contract, the main contract basis, the 1 - 5 spread, and the warehouse receipt and valid forecast [12][15]. 3.4 Research Team - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, a resource product research director focusing on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures; and Sun Chengzhen, engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy [17][18][19].

Core Points - The U.S. Senate failed to pass a new temporary funding bill, leading to the federal government shutdown entering its third week [1] - The Senate voted for the eighth time on a temporary funding bill proposed by the Republican Party, which had already passed the House of Representatives, but it did not receive the necessary 60 votes for approval [1] - The shutdown began on October 1 after the Senate could not agree on key issues such as healthcare-related spending before the end of the previous fiscal year on September 30 [1] Government Impact - Since the government shutdown began, 4,108 federal employees have been laid off according to a statement from the U.S. Department of Justice [1] - The Office of Management and Budget announced plans to continue layoffs and is preparing for the ongoing shutdown [1] - The National President of the Federal Employees Union accused the Trump administration of "illegally firing" thousands of employees who provide essential services to communities and has filed a lawsuit to overturn the layoffs [1]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have surpassed $4,100 per ounce for the first time, marking a year-to-date increase of over 50%, making it one of the best-performing assets globally [1] Group 1: Price Movement - The recent surge in gold prices began in late August, with London spot gold prices rising more than 23.2% from August 21 to October 14 [1] Group 2: Driving Factors - Increased global risk aversion and declining confidence in the US dollar are the main drivers behind the current rise in gold prices [1] - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the US government shutdown, and geopolitical tensions have catalyzed safe-haven trading [1] - Continuous gold purchases by central banks worldwide have also been a key factor in driving up gold prices [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Most market institutions predict that gold prices may continue to strengthen, supported by potential further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, high US government debt burdens, and increasing geopolitical risks [1] - According to the World Gold Council, global official gold reserves increased by 166 tons in the second quarter, reaching historical highs [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices reached a historic high, with New York futures surpassing $4200 per ounce and London spot gold also rising significantly, indicating sustained market enthusiasm for gold assets [1][3] - The auction for exploration rights of the Xinhe Mining Company in Jilin Province was highly competitive, with the final bid reaching 15.06 million yuan, a 488.93% increase from the starting price of 2.5566 million yuan [1][2] - The exploration rights, valued at 1.249 million yuan, have appreciated significantly since 2019, when they were valued at 471,100 yuan, reflecting a doubling in value over six years [2] Group 2 - The exploration rights have a validity period from September 24, 2021, to September 24, 2026, with planned investment for exploration increasing from 4.31 million yuan in 2020 to 6.4594 million yuan in 2021 [2] - The gold mining sector has seen increased activity, with companies like Zijin Mining acquiring gold assets, such as the 100% stake in the Raygorodok gold mine in Kazakhstan for $1.2 billion, indicating a trend of consolidation in the industry [4][5] - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar, with major mining companies looking to enhance their competitiveness through acquisitions [5]

【导读】现货黄金再创历史新高，多家品牌金饰价格达1235元/克 中国基金报记者 晨曦 黄金，继续飙涨！ 10月15日上午，现货黄金价格继续走高，盘中触及4186.8美元/盎司的高位，涨超1%，再创 历史新高。 | W | | 伦敦金现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 4183.000 | | 昨结 4141.535 | 开盘 | 4141.987 | | | +41.465 +1.00% | | 总量(kg) 0.00 | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 4186.800 | 持 仓 0 | 外 盘 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 4140.065 | 增 仓 0 | 内 盘 | | 0 | | સેમ્ય | 五日 日Ｋ 周Ｋ 月Ｋ 更多 | | | | | | 叠加 | | | | 雷口 | | | 4186.80 | | | -1.09% 卖1 4183.300 0 | | | | | | | 流 | 4183.011 0 | | | | | | | 10:17 4182.82 ...

【导读】现货黄金再创历史新高，多家品牌金饰价格达1235元/克 中国基金报记者 晨曦 黄金，继续飙涨！ COMEX黄金同步走高，盘中站上4200美元/盎司，涨超1%。 | W | COMEX黄金 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | GC.CMX | | | | | | | 4200.6 | | 昨结 | 4163.4 | 开盘 | 4160.1 | | | +37.2 | +0.89% | 总手 | 3.72万 | 现手 | | 2 | | 最高价 | 4205.8 | 持 仓 | 37.45万 | ター 할 | 1.81万 | | | 最低价 | 4157.3 | 增 仓 | 562 | 内 참 | 1.91万 | | | સ્ત્ર B4 | モ日 日K | | 周Ｋ 月K | | 童冬 | | | 叠加 | | | | | 풀□ | | | 4205.8 | | | 1.02% 卖1 | | 4200.9 | 3 | | | | | | 录1 | 4200.6 | 1 | | | | | | | 22:03 4201.1 ...

Core Insights - Spot gold prices reached a historic high of $4186.8 per ounce on October 15, 2025, with COMEX gold also rising above $4200 per ounce, reflecting an increase of over 1% [1][3] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have surged to 1235 RMB per gram, with significant increases noted across major brands [1][3][4] Market Performance - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a trading volume of 8.6579 million contracts for gold futures in September, a month-on-month increase of 78.49%, with a transaction value of 7.23 trillion RMB, up 90.99% [2] - Year-to-date, the total transaction value for gold futures has reached 60.93 trillion RMB, marking a year-on-year growth of 112.46% [2] Influencing Factors - Comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have contributed to rising gold prices, as he indicated no significant changes in the economic outlook since the September policy meeting, with expectations for further interest rate cuts [3] - Factors such as escalating US-China trade tensions, ongoing government shutdowns, and market expectations for more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve are supporting the upward trend in gold prices [3] Price Projections - Bank of America’s precious metals team anticipates a 14% increase in investment demand, potentially driving gold prices to $5000 per ounce, with a possibility of reaching $6000 per ounce if purchasing volume increases by 28% [3] Domestic Price Trends - As of October 15, 2025, major brands like Lao Miao Gold, Chow Tai Fook, and Luk Fook Jewelry have listed their gold jewelry prices at 1235 RMB per gram, reflecting a notable increase from the previous day [1][3][4] - The price of platinum jewelry is reported at 560 RMB per gram, while gold bars are priced at 1190 RMB per gram [4]