四月以来的美股，像极了一个不稳定的新兴市场。 这话的出处，并不是憋屈已久的 A 股股民终于恶语反制，而是来自美国前财政部长萨默斯4 月 9 日晚 上发的推特——"过去 24 小时的发展表明，我们可能正走向一场完全由美国政府关税政策引发的严重 金融危机…… 我们正被全球金融市场当作一个有问题的新兴市场对待。 " 从美东时间4月2日特朗普宣布向所有贸易伙伴征收"对等关税"，到七天之后的 4 月 9 日又宣布暂停大 部分"对等关税"，再到豁免的语焉不详、谈判预期的摇摆反复，全球市场在贸易体系的不确定性里出现 罕见波动。几个月前还在"美国例外论"里岁月静好的美国资产更是处在漩涡中心，股债汇全面震荡。 美国媒体把这场动荡称为"Tariff Crash"，直译是关税熊，但很多简中标题则沿用了上一个任期的顺口 溜：一顿分析猛如虎，涨跌还看特朗普。 尽管在 4 月 9 日之后，短期的硝烟似乎有所消散。在可能出现部分政策纠偏的预期下，一度警告大衰 退的华尔街投行们也试图重新回到常规的分析框架内，对美国以及其他经济体的前景做出新的预测。 值得一提的是，在这场关税大震荡里迎来自己三十周年的世界贸易组织（WTO）却没有任何直接行动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in market expectations from "American exceptionalism" to concerns about liquidity challenges in the U.S. market, particularly in light of upcoming corporate debt maturities and the potential impact of U.S. monetary policy [1][19]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. market recently experienced a rare simultaneous decline in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, indicating heightened market volatility and uncertainty [1]. - The dollar index has surpassed the psychological level of 100, with expectations that it may continue to rise in the second and third quarters of the year [3]. - Funds are shifting from high-yield U.S. markets to lower-yield, more liquid markets like Japan, raising concerns about global liquidity [5]. Group 2: Debt and Liquidity Risks - The article highlights that all crises are essentially debt crises disguised as other narratives, with historical examples illustrating how corporate debt maturity spikes can lead to market turmoil [7][10]. - Current liquidity indicators suggest that a liquidity crisis is just beginning, with specific metrics indicating that the market has not yet reached critical levels of risk [19]. - The article outlines three key observation markers for liquidity: the spread between onshore and offshore dollar liquidity, the dollar index's decline rate, and the OAS (option-adjusted spread) for U.S. investment-grade and high-yield bonds [16][18]. Group 3: Potential Scenarios - Three scenarios are proposed for future market developments: - Pessimistic: Both the White House and the Federal Reserve do not compromise, leading to a prolonged period of economic stagnation and declining risk appetite [22]. - Baseline: Either the White House or the Federal Reserve makes concessions, potentially stabilizing the market and improving risk sentiment [22]. - Optimistic: The White House proactively compromises, leading to a reversal in market sentiment before significant corporate bankruptcies occur [22].

坏账的问题并非仅在坏账本身，若坏账制约了社会资本投入的意愿，那么将导致更严重的后果。韩国 在IMF等国际机构的协助下仅在3年时间内快速出清了坏账和债务问题，并未对全社会的资本投入意愿 产生强烈的疤痕效应。我们看到在债务危机发生后，韩国社会举债意愿仍较高，居民和企业杠杆率持 续增长。 外交政策需向出口优先倾斜。 若需寻求最大化商业价值，可能需要出口国的外交政策更多考虑经济发展和出口优先的战略诉求。 重资本投入模式需配合有效的出口附加值升级。 由于劳动力红利的退坡，韩国在债务危机后的发展更多由资本投入和全要素生产率的改善所带动。虽 然在全球贸易环境变革之后，伴随全球贸易环境从此前注重发挥各个国家比较优势的效率优先，转向 对等贸易的均衡优先，上述这种重资本投入的模式可能越发显得难以为继。但伴随有效的出口升级， 国家意志所加速的产业升级容易在重资本行业快速积累壁垒和经营优势。东亚模式经济体在高速增长 期因低汇率和低人工成本更易获得海外扩张，而在贸易摩擦和人口红利退坡后这种优势难以维系。韩 国的经验显示，配合贸易和增长优先的外交政策，东亚经济体可以在转型期依然获得商品的海外竞争 优势。 韩国的经验显示，当东亚经济体陷入 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hebei Haiwei Electronic New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as Haiwei Electronics) has entered the IPO process, revealing both its growth potential and underlying issues related to its family ownership and debt history [1][4][8]. Financial Performance - Haiwei Electronics reported revenues of 327 million RMB, 330 million RMB, and 282 million RMB for the years 2022, 2023, and the first nine months of 2024, respectively. Net profits were 102 million RMB, 69.8 million RMB, and 56.7 million RMB, indicating a period of revenue growth without corresponding profit increases [3][4]. - The company held a 13.6% market share in capacitor base films in 2023, ranking first in a market with a total size of 2.9 billion RMB [3]. Ownership and Corporate Structure - The company was founded in September 2006 by the Song family, with significant changes in shareholding over the years, including a restructuring that increased Song Wenlan's shareholding to 63% by August 2021 [5][11]. - The historical ties between Haiwei Electronics and Haiwei Group, which faced significant debt issues, have raised concerns about the company's financial stability and governance [8][10]. Customer Relationships - In April 2023, BYD invested 50 million RMB in Haiwei Electronics, becoming its largest customer, with procurement amounts of 40.3 million RMB and 33.5 million RMB in 2023 and the first nine months of 2024, respectively [12]. - Haiwei Electronics has been involved in complex procurement relationships, including purchasing metalized films from third parties while also supplying its own base films for processing [13][14]. Supply Chain and Procurement - The company relies heavily on polypropylene, which constitutes over 70% of its raw material costs, and has historically sourced this material from overseas suppliers [22]. - Haiwei Electronics has faced challenges with overdue trade receivables, with amounts overdue exceeding 58 million RMB and 71 million RMB in 2022 and 2023, respectively [25]. Future Plans - The IPO aims to raise funds for capacity expansion, including the installation of two production lines and the establishment of a new factory in southern China by 2027 [26].