Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing dynamics of wealth management in light of declining interest rates and increased market volatility, emphasizing the need for strategic asset allocation rather than mere trading [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The concept of "quality assets" is highlighted, defined by sustained demand and relatively limited supply, which applies to both traditional consumer goods and emerging sectors like AI and semiconductors [3]. - The importance of returning to the fundamentals of supply and demand and maintaining independent judgment is emphasized as a key strategy for navigating market cycles [3]. Group 2: Asset Management Strategies - The discussion includes the significance of asset allocation, advocating for a gradient strategy that starts with defensive assets before moving to more aggressive investments [5]. - The "pyramid accumulation strategy" is introduced, where investors gradually increase their positions in risk assets during market downturns, with specific thresholds for adding to positions to manage risk [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article contrasts the regulatory environments of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, noting that Hong Kong's more accommodating regulations allow for greater innovation and the emergence of significant companies [7][8]. - The impact of anti-involution policies on industry development is discussed, particularly in the context of the photovoltaic industry, where government intervention is seen as necessary to alleviate competitive pressures [10].

广发证券认为，30%是当前锂电行业供需平衡的核心临界增速阈值。当前测算26年锂电总需求将达2495GWh，较25年1944GWh同比+28%，尚处于供需紧平 衡的区间;一旦需求增速突破30%，供给端将快速陷入紧缺状态。看好动力和储能需求共同带动锂电周期反转，电池和材料均有望迎来发展新机遇。 固态电池方面，方正证券指出，行业步入由技术验证阶段向量产筹备阶段跨越的关键窗口期，设备与材料端多点突破。 本周最后一个交易日，三大指数集体拉升。板块上来看，碳酸锂期货突破13万元关口，锂电池产业链全线高开。储能60%+固态40%的电池ETF（561910） 盘中大涨超3.36%，实时成交额突破2.17亿元。 | | 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 季 年 多周期 设置 画线 | 浄值 音 × | | --- | --- | --- | | | 分时走势 电池ETF 最新:0.860 均价:0.846 IOPV:0.8602 | | | 0.861 | | | | 0.858 | | | | 0.855 | | | | 0.852 | | | | 0.849 | | | | 0.847 | | | | 0.8 ...

记者丨曹恩惠 编辑丨骆一帆 最近一周，光伏组件环节传来涨价消息。 根据市场消息，隆基绿能、晶科能源等光伏组件厂商相继上调了组件报价，每瓦上调的区间在0.02元至 0.05元。而各家组件厂商涨价的原因基本一致：上游材料价格上升。 据21世纪经济报道记者了解，此番组件企业给出的涨价原因是银浆涨价，向产业链传导。 数据显示，12月24日，白银期货和现货价格持续刷新历史纪录。年内，白银期货和现货价格涨幅分别超 过130%、150%。 相较于其他主链环节，光伏组件今年价格涨幅较低。有业内人士对21世纪经济报道记者表示，组件价格 何时真正回暖才能代表着全行业走上盈利轨道。 在日前举行的"2025光伏供应链配套发展研讨会"上，国金证券分析师姚遥指出，以2025年12月产业链成 交价格测算，目前组件成本较高的前三大单一项依次为银浆、硅料、玻璃，占比分别为17%、14%、 13%。且随着银价上涨，银浆成本占比在过去半年内显著上升，从而加速光伏行业少银或无银化技术推 进。 按照上述数据，银浆已成光伏组件第一大成本来源。在此之前，是硅料。但由于近些年来硅料价格持续 下跌，其在光伏组件的成本占比亦随之下滑。 从成本端看，此次光伏企业 ...

南华期货2026钢材年度展望 ——供需再平衡，区间震荡起涟漪 陈敏涛（投资咨询证号：Z0022731） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月25日 风险提示：钢厂大规模减产风险，钢材需求不及预期，海外经济衰退风险，反内卷政策落地不及预期、 铁矿供应宽松风险 第二章、2025年钢材市场行情回顾 2025年上半年钢材价格在年初出现短暂反弹后呈现单边缓慢下跌的走势，主要原因在于钢材的消费需求 疲软，钢材的成本定价逻辑成为市场主流，而上半年围绕焦煤过剩导致的钢材成本不断下移，钢材价格跟随 焦煤不断下跌，焦煤让利给钢厂，即使在钢材价格下跌过程中钢厂仍能盈亏平衡，致使钢材价格难以反弹。 以及中途的中美关税政策利空频繁，加深了市场对未来钢材价格走弱的预期。 进入三季度，"反内卷"的政策预期从光伏行业刮到焦煤板块，多晶硅和碳酸锂的触底反弹行情形成示范 效应，叠加国家能源局公布关于煤炭超产审查的通知，使得市场对焦煤供应收紧的预期进一步升温，焦煤价 格持续升温上涨，带动了成材价格的上涨。当时产业链各环节库存整体偏低，预期推动下自下而上的补库行 为启动，叠加投机需求上升，形成成本推动型上涨。但进入8月 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Chemicals Industry**: Benefiting from anti-involution policies and domestic demand recovery, with specific sectors like pesticides, refrigerants, organosilicon, and phosphate chemicals seeing improved profitability. The chemical sector index has significantly risen since July 2025, indicating a potential oil price bottom in the first half of 2026 [1][3][6]. - **New Energy Materials**: Experiencing explosive growth in downstream demand, particularly in electric vehicles and energy storage, while upstream resources are limited and midstream capacity expansion lags behind demand, leading to price increases for lithium and cobalt [1][3]. - **Electronics Industry**: Supported by AI hardware demand, semiconductor capacity expansion, and domestic policies, with increased demand for electronic chemicals and storage chips [1][4]. - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Supply constraints due to resource scarcity, rising extraction costs, and geopolitical disturbances, alongside sustained demand from photovoltaics and energy storage, have driven prices of copper, gold, and silver to historical highs, with expectations for copper prices to continue rising in the first half of 2026 [1][4][19]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Chemical Sector Performance**: The chemical sector index has risen nearly 40% since July 2025, despite marginal performance declines in Q2 to Q4. The reversal in supply-demand dynamics, particularly on the supply side, has been a key driver of stock price increases [6][12]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The polyester industry chain, particularly PTA and its derivatives, is highlighted as having significant price elasticity and potential for investment due to high concentration and recent price increases driven by global oil demand [7][9]. - **Refrigerants Market**: The refrigerants industry is expected to see price increases due to changes in supply-demand dynamics and anti-dumping measures, with applications in automotive and liquid cooling sectors [10][11]. Additional Important Insights - **PPI Recovery**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown signs of recovery, with a notable decrease of 2.3% year-on-year in September, but the decline has narrowed significantly [5]. - **Weak Dollar Environment**: The overall weak dollar trend is expected to persist, providing unexpected opportunities despite changes in interest rate expectations [5]. - **Electronics Price Trends**: Significant price increases have been observed in the electronics supply chain, particularly in wafer manufacturing, storage, and analog devices, driven by increased demand and supply constraints [13]. - **Communication Sector**: The optical device sector is experiencing price increases due to rising demand for 1.6T optical modules and 800 laser modules, with expectations for continued price growth in the fiber optics market [15][16]. Future Outlook - **Chemical Industry**: The chemical sector is still in the early stages of a bull market, with expectations for significant performance improvements in 2026 [12]. - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Continued price increases are anticipated for major metals like copper and aluminum, with a focus on demand-side changes in the latter half of 2026 [22]. - **Lithium Battery Materials**: Prices for lithium and its derivatives are expected to rise due to strong demand growth outpacing supply, with projections for lithium carbonate prices to reach 150,000 to 200,000 yuan [24][25]. - **Copper Foil and Membrane Materials**: The copper foil industry is expected to see significant elasticity due to potential supply-demand gaps, while the membrane industry is facing challenges due to long expansion cycles [27][28].

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Core Viewpoint - The metal market is experiencing a significant price surge, with various metals reaching historical highs due to a combination of macroeconomic factors, geopolitical tensions, and supply-demand dynamics [2][4][6]. Group 1: Price Movements - On December 24, 2023, gold reached a peak of $4,525.83 per ounce, while silver hit $72.701 per ounce, and copper reached $12,282 per ton [2][4][5]. - Domestic futures for gold and silver also saw significant increases, with gold futures peaking at 1,022.88 yuan per gram and silver at 17,671 yuan per kilogram [2][5]. - Platinum and palladium futures also surged, with platinum reaching 675.65 yuan per gram and palladium at 578.45 yuan per gram [2][5]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The price increases are attributed to a combination of a declining interest rate environment, geopolitical tensions, and structural changes in supply and demand [2][6]. - Analysts suggest that the weakening of the dollar and the expansion of U.S. government debt are contributing to the rise in metal prices, as metals are typically priced in dollars [6][7]. - The demand for metals is also being driven by the growth of the AI industry, which requires substantial amounts of metals for infrastructure development [6][7]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints and rising demand are creating a favorable environment for price increases, particularly for copper, which is experiencing a supply crisis [8][9]. - The global inventory of many base metals is at historically low levels, which reduces the market's ability to respond to supply-demand shocks [8]. - Specific factors affecting copper prices include anticipated supply shortages and increased demand from the AI sector, as well as geopolitical factors affecting supply chains [8][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the upward trend in metal prices is likely to continue, although there may be short-term volatility due to profit-taking and market corrections [10][11]. - The copper market, in particular, is expected to face pressures from high prices and weak demand, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to structural supply-demand imbalances [12]. - The market is advised to remain cautious of potential corrections, especially if macroeconomic conditions change, such as shifts in interest rate expectations [11][12].

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 2025 年 12 月 24 日 通威股份 (600438) ——周期拐点确立，成本壁垒构筑长期护城河 报告原因：首次覆盖 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025Q1-3 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 91,994 | 64,600 | 90,909 | 106,471 | 124,081 | | 同比增长率（%） | -33.9 | -5.4 | -1.2 | 17.1 | 16.5 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | -7,039 | -5,270 | -6,098 | 2,883 | 5,963 | | 同比增长率（%） | -151.9 | - | - | - | 106.9 | | 每股收益（元/股） | -1.58 | -1.17 | -1.35 | 0.64 | 1.32 | | 毛利率（%） | 6.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 10.7 | 14.1 | | ROE（%） | -14.5 | ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **A-shares and Hong Kong Market Performance**: In 2025, A-shares showed significant structural differentiation, with the metals and TMT sectors outperforming, while domestic consumption and real estate sectors lagged. The Hong Kong pharmaceutical industry, particularly innovative drugs, performed better than A-shares [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Commodity Prices and Economic Conditions**: The price of rebar in the domestic commodity market weakened in 2025, contrasting with the previous seven years of a bull market. The bond market also showed overall weakness, with interest rates trending upwards. The RMB depreciated against the USD but is expected to maintain strength in the future [1][5]. - **Export Strategy Adjustments**: China has diversified its export targets, significantly increasing exports to countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative while decreasing its reliance on the US market. This indicates a strategic adjustment in response to changes in the international trade environment [1][6][7]. - **Economic Outlook for 2026**: The macroeconomic environment in China is expected to remain stable, with a growth target of around 5%. Strong stimulus policies are unlikely, with a focus on structural optimization and alleviating internal pressures [1][10][11]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Market Sentiment and Liquidity Concerns**: By late 2025, the market experienced a prolonged adjustment period, particularly in growth sectors. Despite a rebound in the ChiNext board, the overall market sentiment remained cautious, with potential liquidity issues anticipated by year-end [1][9]. - **Investment Focus Areas for 2026**: Key sectors to watch include AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals, as well as industries benefiting from cultural exports and manufacturing [1][12][19]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The current price-to-book ratio for public fund heavyweights is around 8 times, indicating that the market is not yet in a bubble phase, as historical peaks have reached 14 to 15 times [1][21]. Future Market Trends - **Sector Performance Predictions**: The performance of the innovative drug sector is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by technological advancements and cost advantages. However, high valuations may limit future performance, suggesting a need for tactical investment strategies [1][25]. - **Asset Allocation Strategies**: For 2026, a balanced approach between growth and value stocks is recommended, with a focus on sectors like AI and cyclical industries. The use of a "barbell strategy" is suggested, combining growth tech stocks with value stocks [1][27]. Conclusion - **Overall Economic and Market Dynamics**: The Chinese economy is undergoing complex adjustments, with various factors influencing asset performance. Investors should remain vigilant about macroeconomic developments and adjust their strategies accordingly to capitalize on emerging opportunities while managing risks [1][8][26].

Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is expected to grow at a rate of 4.8%, characterized by stable external demand, improved internal demand, and price recovery [2] - Export growth is projected to reach 5%, driven by a marginal easing of international trade tensions and the resilience of China's industrial chain [2] - Retail sales are anticipated to rise to 4.5%, supported by strong consumer policies [2] - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to recover to 1.8%, bolstered by increased fiscal spending and the initiation of major projects [2] - Infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates are projected at 6.5% and 4.6%, respectively, while real estate investment is expected to decline by 13.6% [2] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is set to be more proactive, with a target deficit rate maintained at 4.0%, corresponding to a deficit scale of 5.85 trillion [3] - The broad deficit rate is expected to rise to 9.7%, with total fiscal arrangements increasing by 1.6 trillion to 43 trillion [3] - The structure of fiscal spending will focus on "investing in people," optimizing tax structures, and enhancing fiscal sustainability [3] Monetary Policy - Monetary policy is expected to be moderately accommodative, balancing long-term and short-term growth with risk prevention [3] - The OMO rate may be reduced by 10 basis points to 1.3%, and a reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points is anticipated [3] Capital Markets - The domestic stock market is expected to grow, driven by improved liquidity and corporate performance, while the bond market may experience fluctuations [4] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to rise slightly to 1.8%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may decrease to 4.0% [4] Foreign Trade - China's exports are expected to maintain resilient growth, with a projected annual growth rate of 5.0% for 2026 [22] - The trade surplus is anticipated to remain high, although its contribution to GDP growth may weaken compared to 2025 [28] Consumption - Retail sales growth is expected to shift from being policy-driven to being led by service consumption and structural recovery, with an anticipated growth rate of 4.5% for 2026 [49] - Service consumption is projected to become a major support force, while durable goods may show signs of demand exhaustion [50] Investment - Real estate investment is expected to decline by 13.6%, with sales volume and value significantly reduced compared to previous years [66] - Infrastructure investment growth is projected to rise to 6.5% in 2026, with a focus on enhancing the quality and efficiency of investments [81] - Manufacturing investment is expected to recover, with a projected growth rate of 4.6% for 2026, supported by improved external demand and policy incentives [95]