交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-11-17 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：生产利润修复乏力，供给同期历史低位；下游深加工订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期， 地产终端需求疲弱，库存高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1028元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1032元/吨，基差为-4元，期货 升水现货；中性 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6324.70万重量箱，较前一周增加0.18%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策、环保政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业产能出清，沙河地区"煤改气" ， ...

Market Overview - The market remains in a volatile pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating around the 4000-point mark. Last week, the index showed strong performance on Monday and Thursday but failed to maintain upward momentum, falling below 4000 points on Friday due to a significant drop in global markets. The cyclical sectors performed actively, while the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices both declined over 3% [1] Economic Data - In October, new RMB loans amounted to 220 billion, a decrease of 280 billion year-on-year. The new social financing scale was 815 billion, down 597 billion year-on-year. Overall, the social financing data showed weakness, with both new credit and social financing scale falling short of expectations and seasonal norms. The household sector's credit contracted again, indicating a "de-leveraging" trend, while corporate credit growth relied heavily on bill financing [2] - Industrial value-added in October grew by 4.9% year-on-year, down from 6.5% previously. Retail sales increased by 2.9%, slightly up from 3%. From January to October, fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7%, with real estate investment down 14.7% [2] Economic Outlook - The economic data for October indicates a slowdown in total output, with key metrics such as industrial, service, investment, retail sales, exports, and real estate sales growth all falling below previous values. However, achieving the annual GDP growth target of around 5% remains likely, as only a 4.4% growth in the fourth quarter is needed to meet this goal. This suggests that while short-term policies may intensify, the focus will be more on planning for the next year [3] - The A-share market continues to show an upward trend in margin trading balances, with the balance stabilizing above 2.5 trillion, reflecting market confidence and risk appetite. Additionally, southbound capital inflows reached 24.77 billion, indicating ongoing support for Hong Kong stocks [3] International Developments - The U.S. government has taken a significant step towards ending its longest shutdown by passing a temporary funding bill, which will provide funding for most government agencies until January 30, 2026. This development is expected to restore government operations [5] - The absence of key economic data in the U.S. has increased uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in December, with the probability of a rate cut now below 50% [5] Investment Opportunities - To effectively break through the 4000-point barrier, a combination of mainline logic and profit-making effects is necessary. Despite risks such as economic fundamentals lagging and external market volatility, the trend of economic stabilization and supportive policies remains unchanged, suggesting that the A-share bull market's certainty is gradually strengthening. The core broad-based index, the CSI A500 ETF, is highlighted as a strategic investment opportunity to capture the long-term recovery of the Chinese economy [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in investment in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly through the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876), indicates a strong market sentiment anticipating a rebound in this sector. Group 1: Investment Activity - On November 14, the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) saw a net subscription of 150 million shares, amounting to 139 million yuan in a single day, reflecting early capital entry into the non-ferrous sector [1] - The ETF currently holds 152 million shares, with 161 subscription transactions recorded [1] Group 2: Performance Drivers - In the performance aspect, the Q3 2025 report shows that out of 60 constituent stocks in the non-ferrous leader ETF, 56 companies reported profits, with 44 companies experiencing year-on-year net profit growth. Notably, Chujiang New Material's net profit surged 20 times year-on-year, and 10 other companies reported triple-digit net profit increases [2] - The current bull market in non-ferrous resources is characterized as a "new quality productivity bull market," driven by demand from emerging sectors such as new energy, AI, and aerospace, contrasting with the previous market driven by real estate and infrastructure [2] - Supply-side disruptions have intensified supply-demand conflicts, further elevating non-ferrous metal prices and highlighting their scarcity and strategic value [2] Group 3: Policy Support - The joint issuance of the "Non-ferrous Metal Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" by eight departments aims to strengthen strategic resource security and promote digital upgrades in the industry [2] - Policies aimed at optimizing industry supply structures and large-scale infrastructure projects, such as the Yaxi Water Conservancy Project, are expected to create significant demand for non-ferrous metal raw materials [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts from Dongfang Securities suggest that the non-ferrous metals sector is entering a new cycle driven by supply-demand tightness, with a relatively independent price trend [5] - CITIC Securities anticipates that supply tightness will continue to drive prices of copper and cobalt upward, while lithium prices may benefit from unexpected demand in energy storage [5] - The overall bullish sentiment for precious metals like gold remains unchanged, with attention expected to shift towards underperforming sectors like electrolytic aluminum in the fourth quarter [5] Group 5: Global Economic Factors - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in December has risen above 50%, which could provide long-term benefits for non-ferrous metals as lower interest rates typically lead to increased demand for physical assets [3] - Geopolitical tensions are expected to drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold, while industrial metals like copper may also see increased investment due to stable demand and supply chain disruptions [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the bulk supply chain industry [12] Core Viewpoints - The bulk supply chain industry is at a dual bottom of "commodity prices" and "corporate profits," with a cyclical turning point approaching. Historical data shows a positive correlation between the profits of bulk supply chain companies and PPI, indicating that profits tend to rise in inflationary environments. Since July 2025, the "anti-involution" policy has been implemented, driving improvements in PPI growth rates [2][6][28] - Leading companies in the sector, such as Xiamen Xiangyu, Wuchan Zhongda, and Jianfa Co., have actively adjusted their business strategies and strengthened risk management, with their supply chain business profits turning positive year-on-year in Q3. The combination of liquidity easing and global supply chain restructuring, along with the steady advancement of domestic policies, suggests that the cyclical turning point for certain bulk commodities is gradually approaching, with clearer signals of profit improvement in the sector [2][6][42] Summary by Sections Bulk Supply Chain - The bulk supply chain industry is driven by capital, where the scale of business is determined by the amount of capital and turnover efficiency significantly impacts profitability. Macro demand is a crucial variable affecting trade turnover demand. The industry is currently at a dual bottom of "commodity prices" and "corporate profits," with a cyclical turning point approaching. The implementation of the "anti-involution" policy has led to a rebound in commodity prices, with indices for metals, energy, and agricultural products showing year-on-year increases of 4.5%, 2.5%, and 2.1% respectively in Q3 2025 [6][28][34] - Leading companies are accelerating their globalization efforts and integrating resources across the entire supply chain to enhance market share both domestically and internationally. Companies like Xiamen Xiangyu and Xiamen Guomao are maintaining favorable dividend policies, providing a safety net for investors [6][34][42] Transportation Chain - Domestic passenger traffic continues to grow, with a 5% year-on-year increase in domestic passenger volume and a 19% increase in international passenger volume as of November 14. The average domestic passenger load factor has improved by 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the international load factor has increased by 4.8 percentage points [7][43][48] - The report highlights that the supply-demand relationship in the domestic market continues to improve, with oil prices rising by 1.0% year-on-year. The outlook for the industry suggests that revenue is expected to improve marginally, driven by tightening supply and significant cost improvements [7][48] Shipping - The oil shipping sector remains buoyant, with the average VLCC-TCE rate rising by 26.2% to $120,000 per day. The overall tight capacity and OPEC+ production increases are expected to sustain the positive outlook for oil shipping. Conversely, the container shipping sector has seen a decline, with the SCFI index dropping by 2.9% to 1,451 points [8][13] - The report recommends companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy for investment, given the favorable conditions in the oil shipping market [8][42] Logistics - During the 2025 "Double Eleven" shopping festival, the average daily express delivery volume reached 634 million packages, a 9% year-on-year increase. The air freight price index has shown a slight increase as the cross-border e-commerce peak season approaches [9][14] - The report suggests focusing on companies like SF Holding, which is entering a phase of absolute return, and Xiamen Xiangyu, which is expected to benefit from improved export expectations and strong dividend capabilities [9][42]

中国银河证券认为，展望未来，市场风险偏好趋于谨慎，场内热点轮动加快，港股或延续震荡走势。配 置方面，建议关注以下板块：1、"反内卷"政策效果逐渐显现，供需格局变化下，商品价格上涨的周期 股或持续反弹。2、美联储降息政策面临较大不确定性，市场风险偏好下降，投资者或转向红利股寻求 防御。 ...

Summary of Xiamen Xiangyu Conference Call Industry Overview - Xiamen Xiangyu operates in a highly competitive industry with significant barriers to entry, achieving annual revenues of approximately 400-500 billion CNY [2][4] - The company has experienced substantial growth in revenue and profit since its listing in 2012, although its performance is cyclical and closely tied to commodity price fluctuations [2][5] Financial Performance - In 2022, Xiamen Xiangyu reported a profit of 2.7 billion CNY, but this is expected to decline to 1.4 billion CNY in 2024 due to industry cycles [2][6] - Profit is projected to recover to 1.9-2.0 billion CNY in 2025 and reach approximately 2.4 billion CNY by 2026, with corresponding valuations of about 11 times and 15 times earnings, respectively [2][6][7] - The company maintains a dividend payout ratio of approximately 45%-50%, with a dividend yield exceeding 4% [2][6] Business Strategy and Growth Potential - The implementation of anti-involution policies and capacity reduction measures is expected to lead to a recovery in the industry, with increased market activity benefiting the company [2][7] - Xiamen Xiangyu plans to enhance its cargo volume to 240 million tons by 2025, with overseas business potentially increasing from 45% to over 60% [2][7] - The introduction of an equity incentive plan in April 2025 reflects the company's confidence in future growth [2][7] Competitive Position - Xiamen Xiangyu is positioned similarly to Japanese trading companies like Mitsubishi and Mitsui, focusing on the trade of resource commodities such as metals, coal, agricultural products, rubber, and corn [3][4] - The company offers comprehensive trade services, including light processing, logistics, information services, and supply chain finance, providing full support to downstream factories [3][4] Comparison with Peers - Compared to peers like Wucai Zhongda, Xiamen Jianfa, and Xiamen Guomao, Xiamen Xiangyu demonstrates superior performance, particularly in its equity incentive mechanisms and pricing power in aluminum, coal, and agricultural sectors [2][8] - Historical data indicates that the company's valuation has previously exceeded 20 times earnings, and it is currently in a recovery phase [8] Market Outlook - The overall growth rate is expected to be around 30% for the upcoming year, with a projected 20% growth in 2026, leading to a compound annual growth rate of 20% [9] - The relationship between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait has acted as a catalyst for the company's performance recovery, although the fundamental reliance remains on the company's actual performance [10]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The notes primarily discuss the impact of U.S. Federal Reserve policies on the market, the domestic policy environment in China, and the performance of various sectors in the A-share market. Core Points and Arguments Federal Reserve Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's policy is influenced by the chairman's desire for reappointment, with Powell likely to maintain a hawkish stance until 2026, after which a dovish shift may occur, benefiting U.S. stocks and global tech stocks in the long term [1][3] - Current Nasdaq valuations are significantly lower than historical highs, with stronger profitability, indicating limited long-term risk despite short-term volatility due to hawkish policies [1][6] Domestic Policy and Market Dynamics - China's anti-involution policies aim to increase industry concentration and promote leading enterprises, with a higher likelihood of successful implementation if led by top companies [1][5] - The focus on major power dynamics and the potential for increased fiscal deficit rates may create consumption opportunities in strategic sectors like computing power, military, and energy [1][8] A-Share Market Performance - A-shares showed significant improvement in Q3, with overall revenue growth of 1.16% and net profit growth of 5.34%, indicating a robust recovery [1][10] - There is notable performance divergence among sectors, with steel, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials showing high net profit growth, while real estate and retail sectors faced declines [1][12] Sector-Specific Insights - The technology and high-end manufacturing sectors maintained high growth, driven by AI and digital content demand, with significant profit increases in electronics and communications [1][13] - The cyclical industries showed mixed results, with steel profits rising significantly due to low base effects, while coal profits declined due to falling prices [1][15][18] - The renewable energy sector remains a key investment area, although high trading concentration in solar energy suggests caution in the short term [1][7] Consumer Sector Trends - Traditional consumer sectors are generally weak, with significant declines in net profits for food and beverage, textiles, and retail, while emerging sectors like pet economy and gaming show structural opportunities [2][22] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The anticipated increase in the central government's fiscal deficit rate in 2026 may provide a temporary boost to consumer stocks [1][8] - The ongoing rotation within the market indicates a shift towards emerging technology sectors, which continue to attract capital inflows despite overall market caution [1][9]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the outlook for the Chinese stock and bond markets in 2025, primarily driven by technology stocks and influenced by the "anti-involution" policy [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Economic and Market Outlook - The Chinese stock market is expected to be driven by technology stocks, while the bond market will show a divergence in trends, particularly influenced by the "anti-involution" policy from June to August [1][2]. - The goal for China's economic growth over the next decade is set at a minimum of 4.17% with a vision of achieving a per capita GDP of $29,000 [1][7][8]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to transition the economy from localized deflation to moderate inflation, enhancing corporate profitability and capital returns [1][9]. Stock and Bond Market Dynamics - In 2025, the stock market is expected to perform strongly, with a projected target for the A-share market at 4,400-4,500 points [2][19]. - The bond market's 10-year treasury yield is currently at 1.8%, with expectations of it fluctuating around this level unless significant economic changes occur [4][6]. - The correlation between stock and bond markets is weak, with distinct driving forces for each, although they may converge under certain macroeconomic conditions [2][3][4]. Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - The focus for 2026 includes AI applications and cyclical sectors, with specific attention on software, media, hardware, and industries related to PPI such as electrical equipment and defense [2][17][18]. - The potential for AI integration in various sectors is highlighted as a significant growth opportunity, particularly in robotics and autonomous driving [17][18]. Risks and Considerations - The volatility of global technology stocks may impact the growth rate of the information technology sector, which is crucial for overall economic performance [5][6]. - The transition from deflation to inflation is critical; if successful, it could lead to adjustments in corporate earnings and bond market dynamics [4][6]. Long-term Economic Goals - The long-term economic strategy emphasizes the importance of enhancing total factor productivity to avoid stagnation similar to Japan's economic experience over the past 30 years [12][11]. - The need for a balanced approach involving reasonable inflation and currency appreciation is essential to meet the ambitious GDP targets by 2035 [8][10]. Capital Flows and Market Valuation - The influence of southbound capital on Hong Kong stocks is becoming more pronounced, with significant inflows expected to continue [15][16]. - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks is at a historical high risk premium, indicating strong demand despite a deflationary environment [15]. Other Important Insights - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a pivotal measure for economic transformation, potentially attracting international capital and leading to a systemic revaluation of Chinese assets [9][10]. - The conference emphasizes the importance of monitoring CPI and PPI trends as they will significantly influence interest rates and overall economic health in the near future [6][4].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the "anti-involution" policy aimed at optimizing supply-demand structures and promoting inflation recovery, which has been strengthened since September 2025 [2][3][5] - The current market shows a clear high-low switching phenomenon, with cyclical industries such as coal, petrochemicals, and non-ferrous metals performing well [2][7] Key Points and Arguments Anti-Involution Policy - The anti-involution policy aims to clear supply first and stimulate demand later, optimizing the supply-demand structure to promote inflation recovery [3][6] - The policy has been increasingly enforced since September 2025, with a focus on regulating production behaviors and eliminating irrational competition [2][3][5] - Specific measures include supply-side constraints and governance of low-price competition in various sectors, including electronics and steel [5][6] Market Impact - The anti-involution policy is expected to have both short-term and long-term impacts on the equity market, with a positive catalyst effect on prices and performance over the next year [6] - The policy is anticipated to lead to a deeper adjustment of the capacity cycle over the next 3-5 years, similar to the supply-side structural reforms initiated in 2016 [6][8] Sector Performance - The cyclical industries benefiting from the anti-involution and inflation trading include non-ferrous metals, steel, coal, petrochemicals, and sectors like agriculture and logistics [2][11] - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing price increases due to capacity exits, while the wind power sector has seen an 18% increase in turbine prices [2][12] - In the lithium battery sector, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has doubled, and global energy storage demand is growing at over 50% [2][12] Steel Industry Insights - The steel industry is facing challenges with rising raw material prices but is expected to see a gradual recovery in steel prices and profits due to policy support [13][15][16] - Major companies like Baosteel and Hesteel are expected to benefit from the anti-involution policy, which supports advanced enterprises [3][14][16] Polyester and PTA Industry - The polyester and PTA industry is characterized by high concentration, with supply growth lagging behind demand growth, leading to a healthy supply-demand relationship [17][18] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is taking measures to potentially reduce production or curb new capacity, benefiting integrated companies [18] Organic Silicon Industry - The organic silicon industry has not seen new capacity since 2025, with demand growing rapidly at 24% in the first half of the year [19][20] - A recent meeting led by state-owned enterprises aims to reduce capacity by 30%, which could improve profitability and market concentration [20] Livestock Industry - The livestock industry has faced challenges, with pig prices dropping to a four-year low, leading to a shift towards capacity reduction [21][22] - Major companies are actively reducing production in response to policy adjustments [21] Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector has implemented anti-involution measures, resulting in price increases across the industry [23][24] - Companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express have reported increased revenue per shipment, indicating successful price adjustments [24][25][26] Recommendations - The conference recommends focusing on cyclical industries that benefit from tight supply and inflation trading logic, particularly in sectors like electric cells, metals, chemicals, agriculture, and transportation [10][11] - Specific express delivery companies such as YTO Express, Shentong Express, Jitu Express, and ZTO Express are highlighted as having strong performance potential under the anti-involution policy [27]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview New Energy Sector - New energy installations need to maintain an annual increase of over 200GW to meet consumption demands, with policy support focusing on nearby consumption, integrated water-wind-solar development, and offshore wind power development [1][2] - The coupling of eastern industrial transfer with new energy is crucial for creating green industrial clusters, emphasizing direct green electricity connections and renewable energy heating and cooling as important development directions [1][2] Gas Industry - The gas industry has benefited from cold waves and a decrease in primary energy prices, with eastern gas companies performing well [1][4] - CPI turning positive and expectations of economic rebound suggest rapid growth in gas demand, indicating a positive outlook for the gas industry [1][4] Cleanroom Engineering Market - The cleanroom engineering market is expected to exceed 350 billion yuan by 2026, driven primarily by the electronics industry, especially the semiconductor sector [1][5] - Companies like Shenghui Integration and Yaxiang Integration are performing well and actively expanding into overseas markets [1][6] - Significant growth in cleanroom engineering is anticipated in 2025, with Yaxiang Integration achieving nearly 40% growth in Q3 and Shenghui Integration signing new contracts worth 2.25 billion yuan, a 70% year-on-year increase [1][7] Real Estate Market - The overall real estate market is in decline, but structural data shows signs of improvement [1][11] - It is expected that policies will primarily focus on stabilizing the market in 2026, with a narrowing of sales decline and potential improvements in new construction, although completion area faces significant pressure [1][11][12] Coal Industry - Coal production in October was 410 million tons, continuing a negative growth trend for four consecutive months, with an annual production estimate of 4.8 billion tons [1][18] - Domestic coal prices are expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend due to winter storage demand and increased thermal power generation [1][18][19] Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is showing signs of recovery from anti-involution policies, with CPI turning positive and PPI declines narrowing [1][20] - The energy chemical sector is crucial for industrial product inflation, and the industry is expected to have upward elasticity due to improved demand structure and capital expenditure trends [1][21] Key Points and Arguments New Energy Consumption - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration have introduced measures to promote diversified consumption paths for new energy [2] - By 2030, China aims to achieve 3.6 billion kilowatts of wind and solar installed capacity, requiring annual additions of over 200GW [2] Cleanroom Engineering Growth - The cleanroom engineering market has grown from less than 80 billion yuan in 2015 to nearly 250 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 15% [1][5] - The semiconductor and high-end manufacturing sectors are major drivers of demand for cleanroom engineering [1][5][10] Gas Industry Performance - Companies like Shouhua Gas have seen stock price increases due to demand surges from cold weather, with expectations of a cold winter in 2025 boosting gas demand [4] - Eastern companies are performing well, while the central and western regions face challenges [4] Real Estate Market Trends - Despite weak overall performance, there are signs of improvement in structural data, with expectations of a narrowing sales decline in 2026 [11][12] - New construction is expected to improve, while completion areas face significant pressure due to past low construction volumes [12][14] Coal Price Outlook - Domestic coal prices are expected to rise steadily due to winter demand and limited supply growth [18][19] - The focus on thermal power generation and coal chemical demand will provide support for coal prices [19] Chemical Industry Recovery - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from anti-involution policies, with significant impacts on industrial product inflation and corporate profitability [20][21] - The sector is showing signs of upward elasticity due to improved demand and capital expenditure trends [21] Additional Important Insights - The cleanroom engineering sector is experiencing strong growth in international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, driven by domestic semiconductor companies expanding overseas [8][9][10] - The coal industry is facing a tight supply-demand balance, which is expected to support prices despite short-term fluctuations [19] - The chemical industry is at a low valuation point, suggesting potential for recovery and growth in profitability [21]