美元近日反弹引发市场关注。本周三的美联储利率决议或为9月降息奠定基础，美元承压，但真正推动下一 轮走势的关键仍将是周五的非农就业数据。 据追风交易台，花旗分析师在最新研究报告中指出，美国劳动力市场若出现疲软迹象，将引发美联储更为鸽 派的预期重估，进而推动美元新一轮下跌。花旗预计，7月份非农就业增长将放缓至10万，失业率可能上升 至4.2%。 对于本周三的美联储会议，花旗预计不会成为市场主要催化剂，因为市场已经为9月降息预期计价。真正的 焦点将落在周五的非农就业数据，这将成为美元走势的决定性因素。 花旗强调，目前市场对美元看空立场的吸引力依然存在，尽管欧洲央行的鹰派立场对欧元的支撑已经减弱。 美元反弹背后：欧央行鹰派效应减弱 最近一周，美元出现明显反弹，这主要反映了两个因素的共同作用。花旗银行分析师指出，一方面，欧洲央 行的鹰派立场作为欧元上涨的支撑力量正在减弱；另一方面，自上次非农就业数据公布以来，杠杆资金一直 在买入美元。 数据显示，尽管欧洲央行行长拉加德发出鹰派信号并且市场重新定价了欧洲央行的政策预期，欧元兑美元却 未能上涨。这表明欧央行政策对欧元的推动力正在减弱，而美元则借此获得了反弹动能。 花旗还观察 ...

花旗强调，目前市场对美元看空立场的吸引力依然存在，尽管欧洲央行的鹰派立场对欧元的支撑已经减弱。 美元反弹背后：欧央行鹰派效应减弱 最近一周，美元出现明显反弹，这主要反映了两个因素的共同作用。花旗银行分析师指出，一方面，欧洲央行的鹰派立场作为欧元上涨的支撑力量正在减 弱；另一方面，自上次非农就业数据公布以来，杠杆资金一直在买入美元。 数据显示，尽管欧洲央行行长拉加德发出鹰派信号并且市场重新定价了欧洲央行的政策预期，欧元兑美元却未能上涨。这表明欧央行政策对欧元的推动力 正在减弱，而美元则借此获得了反弹动能。 美元近日反弹引发市场关注。本周三的美联储利率决议或为9月降息奠定基础，美元承压，但真正推动下一轮走势的关键仍将是周五的非农就业数据。 据追风交易台，花旗分析师在最新研究报告中指出，美国劳动力市场若出现疲软迹象，将引发美联储更为鸽派的预期重估，进而推动美元新一轮下跌。花 旗预计，7月份非农就业增长将放缓至10万，失业率可能上升至4.2%。 对于本周三的美联储会议，花旗预计不会成为市场主要催化剂，因为市场已经为9月降息预期计价。真正的焦点将落在周五的非农就业数据，这将成为美 元走势的决定性因素。 花旗还观察到近期 ...

7月29日国内黄金市场动态：国内品牌金店金价继续下跌，但部分金店已经有持稳迹象。其中，老凤祥黄金继续下跌2元/ 克，报价998元/克，与多家金店并列最高价金店。周六福黄金下跌12元/克，报价978元/克，与菜百黄金同为最低价金店。今 日最高与最低金店间价差扩大至20元/克。 昨日金价下跌主要还是美欧贸易协议落地，贸易紧张局势缓解，市场避险情绪削弱。不过昨日美国称本周的中美谈判，预 计无重大突破，还是限制了昨日金价的跌幅。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： 瑞银财富旗下多资产策略师Anthi Tsouvali分析称，今年早些时候，市场对美国经济可能因高关税政策遭受冲击的担忧曾引 发美元大幅下挫；但随着贸易协议最终达成，市场情绪已回归平稳，美元的强势格局重新确立。在此背景下，黄金价格的 下行几乎成为必然趋势。 | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年7月29日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 995 | 元/克 | 2 | 跌 | | 六福黄金价格 | 998 | 元/克 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic and international gold prices are experiencing downward pressure due to a favorable US-EU trade agreement and a strong US dollar, which diminishes gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][4][5]. Group 1: Domestic Gold Price - As of 8:30 AM, the domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 770.84 CNY per gram, down 0.31% [1]. Group 2: International Gold Price - The international gold price is reported at 3307.4 USD per ounce, down 0.08% [2]. Group 3: Influencing Factors on Gold Prices - The US and EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, alleviating fears of a larger trade war and enhancing market optimism, which reduces the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The strong performance of the US dollar, which rose 1% to a one-week high, makes gold more expensive for overseas buyers, further decreasing its attractiveness [4]. - Ongoing US-China trade negotiations are expected to provide limited breakthroughs, maintaining some uncertainty in the market, which may offer slight support for gold prices despite the downward pressures from the US-EU agreement and the strong dollar [5].

【要闻回顾】 随着美国与欧洲达成15%的关税协议、以及美日、美中间贸易缓和的积极进展，市场风险偏好回升，削 弱了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力。 据市场调查显示："当前的贸易乐观氛围削弱了黄金的避险需求，而美元走软又为金价提供支撑，两股 力量相互抵消，使黄金呈现震荡格局。" 投资者重点聚焦将于本周二召开的FOMC会议。尽管特朗普持续对美联储施压要求降息，但市场普遍预 期本次会议将维持利率不变，因美国劳动力市场仍表现强劲。 摘要7月25日，COMEX黄金库存录得1174.54吨，较上一交易日增持4.53吨；COMEX黄金周五（7月25 日）收报3338.50美元/盎司，下跌0.97%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至3376.60美元/盎司，最低触及 3325.50美元/盎司。 7月25日，COMEX黄金库存录得1174.54吨，较上一交易日增持4.53吨；COMEX黄金周五（7月25日） 收报3338.50美元/盎司，下跌0.97%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至3376.60美元/盎司，最低触及 3325.50美元/盎司。 最新comex黄金库存数据： 日期 COMEX黄金库存量(吨) 增持（吨） 2025-0 ...

Core Insights - The actual economic impact of Trump's tariff policy has diverged significantly from initial predictions, leading to unexpected consequences for the dollar and inflation [1][5][9] - The anticipated "stagflation" effect has not materialized, as the U.S. economy remains resilient despite rising tariff revenues [4][6][9] Group 1: Tariff Policy and Economic Impact - Trump's tariff policy was expected to strengthen the dollar and induce stagflation, with economists estimating a 0.1% reduction in economic growth and a 0.1% increase in inflation for every 1% rise in tariff rates [5][9] - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. has increased from 2.5% to 15%, yet the dollar has weakened, experiencing its most severe decline in half a century [5][6] - Tariff revenues are growing at an annualized rate of $300 billion, approximately four times higher than the previous year, but the economy continues to show resilience [4][6] Group 2: Factors Mitigating Negative Effects - The surge in artificial intelligence investments and ongoing government fiscal stimulus have countered the negative impacts of the tariff policy [4][6][9] - Projected annual spending on AI infrastructure by tech giants has increased by $60 billion since January, reaching $350 billion, which has bolstered economic growth [6][9] - Trump's tax cuts have allowed U.S. companies to absorb much of the tariff costs, with an estimated savings of $100 billion in 2023, primarily through tax reductions [7][9] Group 3: Complexity of Economic Systems - The current economic situation illustrates the limitations of simplistic economic models that attribute outcomes to single factors, as the economy is influenced by multiple variables [8][9] - Despite the potential for stagflation to emerge if average effective tax rates continue to rise, the current tariff rates have not overwhelmed the larger forces supporting growth and controlling inflation [9][10]

周一（7月28日）亚盘时段，美元指数徘窄幅波动，最新美元指数报97.65，跌幅0.02%，本周将是全球 金融市场的关键时刻：美联储的政策决议、贸易协议的进展、以及关键经济数据的发布都将成为美元走 势的重要驱动因素。 美联储周三的利率决议是全球金融市场的焦点。目前，市场对美联储维持利率不变的预期高达97%，表 明短期内市场对政策稳定性有较强共识。然而，期货市场同时显示，交易员预计美联储将在9月会议上 实施降息，并在12月进一步降息。这种偏鸽派的市场预期为美元提供了挑战，特别是在美联储未来的货 币政策指引上，市场密切关注美联储是否会改变政策立场，暗示维持高利率或实施降息。 上周五美元指数呈现出上涨的态势。当日美元指数价格最高攀升至97.882的位置，最低则下探至97.402 位置，最终以97.664的价格收盘。今日美元指数早盘再度回踩四小时支撑，之后需要关注日线阻力进一 步上破并站稳表现。 在日线级别上，前期美元突破日线阻力，但是在周二再度跌破日线支撑，跌破后短线延续下跌，目前日 线阻力于97.90位置，后续还是需要关注进一步测试并再度站稳表现。从四小时上看，价格在上周四向 上突破并站稳四小时阻力，则短线将依托四 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by a combination of strong dollar performance, developments in US-EU trade agreements, and geopolitical tensions, with potential implications for future investment strategies in gold [3][4][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Gold prices showed a rebound after hitting a low of $3320 per ounce, currently trading around $3335 per ounce, following a nearly 1% decline last Friday [1]. - The decline in gold prices is attributed to a strong dollar and optimistic sentiment regarding US-EU trade agreements [1][3]. Group 2: Dollar Strength and Its Impact - The dollar index rebounded from a two-week low, increasing the holding costs of gold for non-dollar investors, which contributed to the recent drop in gold prices [3]. - Despite short-term support for the dollar from economic data and trade negotiations, it recorded its largest weekly decline in a month, indicating potential limitations on further dollar appreciation [3]. Group 3: US-EU Trade Agreement - The recent US-EU trade agreement, which includes a 15% tariff on EU goods and commitments from the EU to increase investments in the US, has reduced market uncertainty and diminished gold's appeal as a safe haven [4]. - The agreement's details have sparked controversy, with some European leaders criticizing it as unbalanced, which may leave room for future trade conflicts and potentially revive gold's safe-haven demand [4]. Group 4: Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, such as conflicts in Thailand and Cambodia, and tensions in the Middle East, continue to provide long-term support for gold prices despite short-term declines in safe-haven demand [6]. - Central banks globally are increasing gold reserves to reduce reliance on the dollar, which is expected to sustain long-term demand for gold [6]. Group 5: Federal Reserve Policies - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a critical factor influencing gold prices, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged in the upcoming meeting [7]. - Political pressures on the Federal Reserve could impact its independence and create downward risks for the dollar, indirectly supporting gold prices [7]. Group 6: Upcoming Key Events - A series of important economic data releases and central bank meetings are scheduled, which may provide insights into future Federal Reserve policies and influence gold price movements [9][10][11][12].

Group 1 - The dollar index continues to show an upward trend, currently reported at 97.70 with a slight increase of 0.03% [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates this month, but plans for a high-rate policy exit are underway, with no rate cuts anticipated on July 30 [1][2] - Employment growth remains strong, but concerns about underlying economic vulnerabilities are emerging, particularly as nearly 90% of new jobs in recent years have come from government, leisure, hospitality, and healthcare sectors [2] Group 2 - Core economic growth engines such as technology and manufacturing are underperforming, leading to a decline in consumer confidence and spending [3] - The impact of Trump's tariff comments on inflation may be temporary, with stable energy prices and moderate wage growth expected to alleviate inflationary pressures [4] - The market is speculating on a potential rate cut in September, but it may be premature, with the Fed possibly waiting until December to act [4] Group 3 - The dollar's performance has been volatile this month, but short-term yields are expected to rise, providing support for the dollar, especially if Powell maintains a hawkish stance [4] - Strong non-farm payroll data could further enhance the dollar's rebound potential, particularly against low-yield currencies like the yen and Swiss franc [4] - Current resistance for the dollar index is at 97.90, with support around 97.00 [5]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish stance on the US dollar while advocating for long positions in the euro, pound, and yen [2]. Core Insights - The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to reach 4% in 2025, with further declines anticipated in 2026, driven primarily by significant rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][3]. - The difference in two-year yields between the US and Europe significantly impacts the dollar's performance, with a decline in US yields likely to weaken the dollar [4]. - The term premium is influenced by multiple factors, including foreign investor sell-offs of US Treasuries and Federal Reserve policies, with expectations of rising term premiums during rate cuts [1][4]. - Economic stimulus policies have a negligible effect on actual GDP growth, and reduced tariff revenues lessen the Treasury's need to raise long-term bond issuance rates [5]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Expectations - The yield curve is expected to steepen, with a forecasted decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4% in 2025 and further decreases in 2026, primarily due to anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Currency Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the US dollar is likely to weaken due to falling yields, while the euro may appreciate as European investors have not hedged significant US asset exposures [2][4]. - The pound is expected to rise due to favorable valuations and the parliamentary recess, while the yen's positive fiscal dynamics support its strength [2][6]. Fiscal Policy Implications - Economic stimulus is projected to contribute minimally to GDP growth, with estimates around 20 basis points, and the Treasury's financing needs are expected to remain stable without raising long-term bond rates [5]. Central Bank Decision-Making - Understanding the decision-making tendencies of central banks, particularly those that maintain market pricing ambiguity, is crucial for forex investors [6].