Group 1 - The U.S. job market shows resilience despite increasing uncertainty in global trade policies, with initial jobless claims decreasing by 2,000 to 227,000, the lowest in four weeks [1] - The number of individuals continuing to claim unemployment benefits has increased to 1.9 million, indicating some long-term unemployed individuals still rely on these benefits [1] - Overall, the decline in initial jobless claims reflects relative stability in hiring and employee allocation by U.S. companies, maintaining a certain level of labor demand despite trade tensions [1] Group 2 - Not all experts are optimistic about the future economic outlook, as St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem noted that tariffs may continue to suppress economic activity, potentially putting pressure on the labor market [3] - Major companies like Nike and Amazon have announced layoffs, aligning with the trend of cost-cutting and workforce reduction in response to economic uncertainty [3] - The four-week moving average of unemployment claims has risen to 231,500, the highest level since October of the previous year, indicating potential long-term weakness in the job market [5] Group 3 - Some states, particularly Michigan and Virginia, have seen significant declines in initial jobless claims, suggesting regional variations in labor market conditions [5] - Despite current employment data indicating that the labor market has not entered a recession, there are notable risks from global trade policies and economic factors that could exert greater pressure on the U.S. job market in the future [5] - The ability of the U.S. job market to maintain its current resilience in the face of increasing economic uncertainty remains challenging in the coming months [5]

报 告 正 文 继续暂停降息，等待实际数据降温 。 本次议息会议中，美联储决定将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.5%的目标范围内，并按原有节奏继续执行缩表。在本次议息会 议声明中，美联储新增判断 "高失业率和高通胀风险已经增加" （the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen），经济前景不确定性"进一 步"（further）增加。美联储主席鲍威尔在记者会上表示，不需要急于调整利率，目前等待的成本较低。政策是适度限制的，等到6月才能做出预测。 美联储需 要真实数据反映，而不仅仅是情绪 ，尽管市场很担心，但关税冲击还没有到来。如果双重目标之间存在矛盾，要考虑与目标之间的距离和弥合差距的时间。 此外，鲍威尔重申特朗普施压不会影响美联储的工作。 我们认为， 一方面，美国就业仍趋于降温 ，4月新增非农就业人数回落、前值下修，失业率保持平稳，薪资增速略有回落，整体表现仍然稳健。不过，政府裁 员影响在未来仍将逐渐显现，同时关税等经济政策不确定仍高，或在一定程度上减缓企业招聘，关税等经济政策或对私营企业招聘决策造成负面影响，就业市 场或仍将趋于 ...

美联储官员在5月7日利率决议声明中表示，他们认为通胀和失业上升的风险正在加剧。由于当前失业率 仍处于低位，市场需求也相对平稳，官员们表示在更清楚地了解经济走向之前，他们愿意维持利率不 变。"美联储愿意按兵不动，直到有经济数据迫使他们调整利率，"Bankrate的Greg McBride表示，"鉴于 通胀率已经高企且料将进一步走高，因此需要有就业市场显著放缓的证据，美联储才会重启降息。"(新 浪财经) ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31 号 4 月非农点评：就业相对稳健，但未来仍有下行 风险 报告日期 2025-5-6 专题报告 ⚫ 个人建议，仅供参考！ 宏观 | 分析师：白素娜 | | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3023916 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0013700 | 美国非农、失业率走势图 农产品指数与油脂期货价格走势 数据来源：WIND ⚫ 4 月非农就业报告要点：美国 4 月非农新增就业人数 17.7 万人， 低于 3 月但高于预期， 2、3 月新增就业人数合计下修 5.8 万 人。虽然 4 月劳动参与率意外回升至 62.6%，但 4 月失业率维持 4.2%不变，且关键的 U6 失业率连续 2 个月下降至 7.8%，表明当 前的美国就业市场仍相对稳健，关税政策的冲击尚不明显。美 国 4 月平均每小时工资增速环比为 0.2%，同比为 3.8%，双双低 于预期。 ⚫ 点评解析：就业整体仍相对稳健：美国 4 月非农新增就业人数高于 预期，加上在劳动参与率意外回升的背景下，失业率仍维持稳定 且 U6 失业率下降，表明美国当前的就业市场仍相对稳健，关税政 策的冲击尚 ...

2025 年 5 月 6 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 资料来源：Wind, 招银国际环球市场 资料来源：Wind, 招银国际环球市场 资料来源：Wind, 招银国际环球市场 (15) (10) (5) 0 5 10 15 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 失业率(左轴) 非农就业增速(右轴) (%) (%) (1,000) (800) (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 政府 服务 商品 月均新增就业(千人) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 ...

财料｜一图读懂4月美国非农报告 新增非农就业人数超预期，政府雇员连续三个月减少。特朗普点赞美国就业市场，并继续喊话美联储"快降息"……一图读懂 2025年4月美国非农报告 20 10 0 2025-04 公布值 17.7万人 预期值 13万人 ·失业率 0.5% 0 4960 492 49 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 2025-04 0% 0.2% 公布值 预期值 0.30% 02 | 2025年04月非农就业人口全貌 4月非农总就业人口1.5952亿人 ▲17.7万人 单位: 万人 采矿和伐木 62.5 联邦政府 +0.1 298.9 0.9 建筑 HIRAHA 831.6 552.2 +7.7 +0.6 F 5577 TA S P J 13590.5 +16.7 私营服务生产 11419.9 +15.6 专业和商业服务 技7 设计、 2261.4 +1.7 信息技术 293.8 0 03 | 美联储利率预期 ·CME"美联储观察"工具对美联储利率未来预期 数据公布后 数据公布前 ■ 100% 95.3% 97.6% Q 是十数据 80% 60% 52.7%55.2% 46.1% 42.1% 4 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. private sector added only 62,000 jobs this month, marking the smallest increase since July 2024 and significantly below the expected 115,000 jobs [1][3] - Wage growth has also slowed, with salaries for employees staying in their current positions rising by 4.5% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from March, while salaries for job switchers increased to 6.9%, up 0.2 percentage points [3] - The leisure and hospitality sector saw the largest job increase, adding 27,000 positions, followed by trade, transportation, and utilities (21,000), financial activities (20,000), and construction (16,000) [3] Group 2 - The report comes amid increasing uncertainty regarding the impact of Trump's tariff policies on corporate hiring plans and the broader economic situation [3] - The ADP data serves as a leading indicator for the Labor Department's non-farm payroll report, which is expected to show a job growth of 135,000, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.2% [3]

广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 根据美国劳工部3月7日公布数据 ，2月新增非农15.1万人，略低于预期的16万人；12月数据上修1.6 万人至32.3万人，1月数据下修1.8万人和12.5万人。失业率上行0.1pct至4.1%，高于预期的4.0% 。 第二， 从非农数据来看，美国就业市场基本平稳，但已有分化和弱化特征。一方面，1月非农受天气和火灾 影响的部门（建筑业）2月有较大幅度回补。就业扩散指数（表征就业广度）回升，特别是制造业扩散指数明 显回弹。另一方面，消费相关行业（零售）就业显著走弱，这一点和Q1沃尔玛调降全球收入和盈利预期一致 ，即2025年消费者消费能力和意愿降温带动雇佣需求弱化。此外，DOGE冻结招聘以及裁员政策导致联邦政 府部门新增就业由正转负，这一趋势可能还将延续 。 第三， 失业率小幅上行。一是失业率（U3）从前值的4.09%升至2月的4.14%。从失业原因来看，永久失业 贡献0.03pct，永久性失业人数的上升意味着公司裁员意愿有所提升。需要注意的是，1月劳动力人口显著回 落，若不考虑劳动力人口下降的38.5万 ...

Employment Data Summary - In February, the U.S. added 151,000 non-farm jobs, slightly up from January's revised figure of 125,000 but below the market expectation of 160,000[9][10] - The three-month average for job additions is 199,700, indicating a slight downward trend compared to previous values[10][11] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, exceeding expectations, while the labor force participation rate decreased to approximately 62.4%[3][15] Labor Market Dynamics - The increase in permanent unemployment and re-employment rates suggests a continued decline in the labor market, with temporary unemployment and voluntary departures decreasing[19][15] - Average hourly earnings rose to $35.93, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, but the month-on-month growth rate showed a slight decline[23][19] - The leisure and hospitality sector has seen job losses for two consecutive months, indicating potential weaknesses in the service industry[11][14] Future Outlook - The employment market may continue to weaken due to federal government layoffs and the impact of illegal immigration policies, which are expected to have a negative effect on job availability[35][39] - The government layoffs have not fully impacted the February employment data, suggesting potential future job losses[35][36] - The ongoing deportation of illegal immigrants, although currently below expectations, may increase and further strain the labor market[38][39] Economic Implications - The February employment data is unlikely to significantly influence the upcoming FOMC meeting, with expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates[39] - Asset prices, including U.S. stocks and bonds, may remain under pressure due to concerns over economic momentum weakening[39][40]