从基本面看，7 月烧碱检修产能较 6 月减少明显，7 月检修主要集中在西北、华东。同时，烧碱 7-8 月 份新增产能或达到 110 万吨，因此供应压力会逐步增加，不过厂家在出口方面存在超卖情况，新增产能压力 基本被出口消化。需求端，非铝需求淡季，支撑偏弱，氧化铝的烧碱库存中性，出口方向支撑强，低价补库 意愿较强。 2025 年 7 月 21 日 烧碱：旺季仍有期待 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | 陈嘉昕 | | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 烧碱基本面数据 | | | 山东最便宜可交割 09合约期货价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 现货32碱价格 | | | 2469 840 2625 156 | | | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 | | | 【现货消息】 | | | 以山东地区为基准，今日山东液碱市场局部持稳观望，高度碱有前期订单支撑下，库存低位，但涨价后 高价走货不佳。低度碱高价走货放缓，各厂走货表现不一，整体库存出现累库，个别高价出现回落。 | | | 【市场状况分析】 | | | 宏观方面，短期国内受反内卷影响， ...

2025年07月21日 星期一 商品期货早班车 单击此处输入文字。 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：上周贵金属价格继续高位震荡，白银录得新高。 | | 金 | 基本面：贝森特访日后释放乐观信号，会见石破茂后表示美日可以达成不错的贸易协议；继特朗普宣布 8 月 1 | | 属 | 日将生效的铜关税后，特朗普团队讨论对木材、芯片、关键矿产和药品发布征关税的公告。这些产品都是美 | | | 国商务部在进行的 232 调查对象；据报道特朗普推动对所有欧盟商品加征 15%-20%的最低关税。国内黄金 | | | ETF 前一交易日流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1154 吨，增加 11 吨；上期所黄金库存 28 吨，继续增加；伦敦 6 | | | 月黄金库存 8774 吨；上期所白银库存 1211 吨，减少 6 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1326 吨，增加 7 吨， | | | COMEX 白银库存 15448 吨，减少 16 吨；伦敦 6 月白银库存增加 421 吨至 23788 吨；印度 6 月白银进口约 | | | 200 吨左右。全球最大白银 etf-- ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC trend strength is 1, indicating a "neutral" outlook [5] 2) Core Viewpoints - Short - term, domestic macro is affected by anti - involution, with overall commodity sentiment being strong, but PVC is in a range - bound market temporarily due to high - yield, high - inventory structure and external risks [1][2] - In the future, the market will continue to short the chlor - alkali profit as the high - yield and high - inventory situation of PVC is difficult to ease [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Fundamental Tracking - 09 contract futures price is 4937, East China spot price is 4840, basis is - 97, and 9 - 1 month spread is - 119 [1] Spot News - The domestic PVC spot market is in a weak and volatile state. Supply has steadily increased this week, it's the off - season for demand, and industry inventory has continued to grow. The spot price is under pressure, with the transaction price in East China for calcium carbide type five at 4800 - 4920 yuan/ton and ethylene type at 4850 - 5100 yuan/ton [1] Market Condition Analysis - Macro: The anti - involution sentiment is strong, especially in the petrochemical and chemical industries. But the impact on PVC may be limited as most PVC devices have continuous maintenance and upgrades [1][2] - Fundamentals: Northwest chlor - alkali integrated devices still have profits. In the second half of the year, there is insufficient drive for supply - side production cuts, and the high - yield and high - inventory structure is difficult to ease [1][2] - High - yield Structure: PVC maintenance volume is lower than in 2023, and the high - yield pattern continues. Chlor - alkali cost has declined, and the caustic soda demand in 2025 supports high profits. There will be about 110 million tons of new capacity put into production from July to August [1][2] - High - inventory Pressure: In 2025, the PVC export market faces greater competition. Exports are affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification, and the sustainability of exports is uncertain. Domestic demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is weak, and enterprises have low inventory - building willingness [2][4]

Group 1 - The EU has drafted two rounds of retaliatory tariffs and is evaluating a series of measures, including the activation of the "anti-coercion tool" [1] - The US has threatened to impose "reciprocal tariffs" on trade partners, with a deadline approaching on August 1, leading to a stalemate in US-EU negotiations [1][3] - The US is currently imposing a 25% tariff on imported cars from the EU and a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum [1] Group 2 - German Chancellor Merz expressed concerns about the trade negotiations, indicating that the US is hesitant to lower industry tariffs [3] - The German Finance Minister emphasized the need to resolve global trade conflicts but insisted that agreements should not be made at any cost [3] - The German central bank president warned that tariff uncertainties are causing significant damage to the global economy [3] Group 3 - The EU is prepared to implement retaliatory measures if the US maintains its proposed tariff rates of 15%-20% [4] - The EU plans to impose tariffs on $21 billion worth of US imports starting August 6, with a second round targeting $72 billion in US goods if negotiations fail [4][5] - The EU Commission stated that the current US tariff policy affects €380 billion of EU exports, accounting for 70% of EU exports to the US [5] Group 4 - Warnings have been issued that proposed US tariffs could severely hinder Germany's economic recovery, with a potential recession in 2025 [6] - Analysts predict that a 30% tariff on EU exports could push the Eurozone economy into recession by late 2025, with significant growth reductions expected [6][7] - Deutsche Bank's analysis suggests that the effective tariff rate could range from 12%-17%, significantly higher than the approximately 1% level at the beginning of the year [6] Group 5 - Despite the trade tensions, European stock markets are performing well, with major indices near historical highs [7] - The CAC 40 index in France has risen by 5.8% year-to-date, while the DAX index in Germany has increased by 21.3% [7]

综合来看，特朗普近期可能计划访华，促使中国再次签署价值2000亿美元的协议，承诺购买美国商品，以推动其所谓的"贸易再平衡"政策。回顾特朗普第一 任期，双方的贸易摩擦比现在更为激烈，彼时中国首次遭遇了来自美国的全方位贸易打击，特朗普的政策频频变动，导致中国无奈地表示："我们还是把美 国人想得太好。" 过去的报道显示，在特朗普第一任期内，2019年10月，中美曾在华盛顿举行第十三轮高层经贸磋商，并在12月双方就协议文本达成一致。最终在2020年1月 15日，中美正式签署了第一阶段协议。特朗普在选举前夕向选民递交了这份"关税答卷"，当时中国承诺在2020至2021年期间，新增采购价值2000亿美元的美 国产品。 事实上，当时中国由于缺乏经验，对与美国的贸易战缺乏足够的自信，因此才同意以2000亿美元的订单作为妥协。然而，到了特朗普的第二任期，他似乎打 算重蹈覆辙，继续施压中国，再次要求其提供2000亿美元的采购，以增添他的政绩。从这一点来看，中国是不可能重蹈覆辙的。 从最近的中美贸易战动态来看，中国也明确表示不会再为美国庞大的债务买单。中国拒绝向美国"低头"，而美国则主动削减关税，近期还放松对中国的贸易 管制，逐步 ...

Core Viewpoint - Brown-Forman, a leading whiskey producer, has seen its stock decline significantly, down 63% over the past three years, underperforming the broader market despite its strong brand portfolio [1][2]. Company Performance - The company has faced revenue and profit declines, with Q3 fiscal 2025 revenue falling 3% to $1.04 billion and net income slipping 6% to $270 million [5]. - In Q4, revenue further decreased by 7% to $894 million, although operating income slightly increased from $198 million to $205 million when adjusted for a prior year gain [6]. - Overall, the company is experiencing broad-based headwinds, with revenue down across all geographies and a gross margin decline of 150 basis points [6]. Industry Trends - The alcohol sector is under pressure due to shifting consumer preferences, health concerns, and the rise of non-alcoholic options, particularly among Gen Z [4]. - Trade tensions have also impacted the company, with American spirits being targeted by foreign tariffs in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on exports [2][4]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued challenges, with guidance indicating organic sales and operating income declines in low single digits for fiscal 2026 [9]. - Recent tariffs imposed by President Trump on key markets, including the European Union, are expected to exacerbate existing issues [8]. - Rising prices reflected in the Consumer Price Index may lead consumers to opt for cheaper alternatives, further impacting sales [9]. Investment Considerations - Despite Jack Daniel's being a major brand, the lack of growth limits the company's ability to enhance shareholder value beyond dividends [10]. - The stock is currently valued at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15 with a dividend yield of 3.4%, suggesting reasonable value but ongoing struggles without significant changes in trade policy or consumer preferences [11].

美国总统特朗普此前在社交媒体上宣布，决定对越南商品实施20%到40%的关税。具体来说，这20%的 税率是针对直接从越南输入的产品，而40%则是针对那些经越南转口的商品。值得注意的是，特朗普并 没有详细解释什么算是转口商品，这也使得不少分析人士对此产生了困惑。自从特朗普宣布与越南达成 贸易谈判协议以来，越南方面至今未公布该协议的具体内容，以及美国对其产品所适用的税率，这也引 来了外界对两国协议的质疑。同时，特朗普表示，越南承诺对美国产品实行零关税，这无疑让美国在某 种程度上占据了优势。 如今，根据外媒的报道，越南似乎在谈判中被美国所欺骗。在美国与越南的谈判期间，越南最初预计美 国会同意11%的税率，认为这对于自身是可接受的。然而，从特朗普的最新表态来看，实际税率几乎翻 了一番，达到了20%。美国媒体曝出内幕，称特朗普在最后时刻的这一决定是"临门一脚"。事实上，在 4月2日时，美国本有计划对越南征收高达46%的关税，而越南第一时间做出了零关税的承诺，但最终的 税率仍然超过了越南的预期。 即使美国在对待其盟友时表现出这种强硬态度，欧盟却似乎已经开始屈服，试图在数字问题上向美国让 步，以换取对自身的关税减免。从关税的 ...

根据美国商务部的数据，他们与巴西的贸易顺差明显，按理应当维持现状。然而，特朗普却无视经济利 益，担心其他国家的团结会对美元构成挑战。此次巴西的反击成为了一个典型的案例，若更多国家效 仿，美国的关税政策将面临全面的失效。 最近，美国突如其来地针对巴西加征了50%的关税，这一举动显得非常不寻常。面对这一挑衅，巴西总 统卢拉立即采取了对等的反击策略，同样对美国的商品征收了50%的关税。不仅如此，韩国和日本也遭 遇了美国加征25%关税的困扰，而韩国还被要求支付100亿美元的军费。美国在与巴西的贸易中本是获 利的，但现在却选择对立，这背后显然隐藏着不为人知的动机。 7月9日，美国贸易代表发布公告，针对八个国家实施关税政策，巴西成为了重点攻击的对象。特朗普政 府或许认为，巴西在金砖国家峰会上表现得太过活跃，尤其是卢拉公开表示"世界不需要皇帝"，这显然 是针对美国的强硬言辞。在金砖国家会议上，巴西提议减少对美元的依赖，这一想法直接威胁到了美国 在全球的霸权地位。 那么，巴西此次敢于强硬反击的底气从何而来？首先，他们拥有丰富的石油、铁矿等自然资源，市场也 相当广阔。此外，金砖国家之间的互相支持意味着，尽管美国加税，巴西仍然能 ...

Group 1: Domestic Crisis - President Trump's recent comments at the Pennsylvania Energy Summit indicate a surprising shift towards a more cooperative stance with China, contrasting sharply with his previous hardline rhetoric [2] - Tensions with the Federal Reserve escalated when Trump nearly attempted to fire Chairman Powell over a $600 million renovation cost, leading to significant market turmoil before he reversed his decision [3] - The Epstein case has created a political storm, with public skepticism surrounding the official narrative of his death, further isolating Trump as he faces backlash from both supporters and opponents [3] Group 2: Trade War Consequences - The U.S. is experiencing the negative impacts of the trade war, with prices for Chinese products, such as toys and clothing, increasing significantly, indicating inflationary pressures on consumers [5] - China's restrictions on rare earth exports pose risks to critical U.S. industries, including defense and electric vehicle manufacturing, highlighting vulnerabilities in supply chains [5] Group 3: Failed Containment Strategy - Trump's strategy to unite allies against China has faced rejection, with key allies like Germany and Japan opposing decoupling efforts, and Australia resuming coal trade with China [7] - The New York Times has characterized Trump's containment strategy as ineffective, suggesting a lack of international support [7] Group 4: Compromises and Diplomatic Postures - The U.S. government has allowed companies like NVIDIA and AMD to sell modified AI chips to China, reflecting a contradiction to its stated goal of preventing technology leaks [8] - Diplomatic efforts are being made, with U.S. officials seeking dialogue with China, indicating a shift towards a more conciliatory approach [8] Group 5: China's Response - China continues to review rare earth export licenses and is advancing its own chip self-sufficiency, demonstrating a strategic focus on maintaining its technological independence [9] - The Chinese government perceives Trump's recent friendly rhetoric as a tactical response to domestic challenges rather than a genuine shift in policy [9]

Group 1 - Hedge funds have turned bearish on the Japanese yen for the first time in four months, driven by concerns over the ruling coalition's election prospects and potential negative impacts on Japan's fiscal outlook and economic policy stability [1] - Speculative traders currently hold approximately $1.1 billion in short yen futures and options contracts, totaling around 12,606 contracts, marking the first bearish stance since the end of March [1] - Recent polls indicate that the ruling coalition, consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, may struggle to maintain a majority in the upcoming elections, prompting investors to reassess the investment value of the yen and Japanese government bonds [1] Group 2 - Wall Street strategists generally have a pessimistic outlook on the yen's performance post-election, with Wells Fargo's currency strategy team suggesting that a defeat for the LDP could lead to increased fiscal spending and larger budget deficits, putting pressure on long-term Japanese government bonds [2] - If the opposition party wins, the yen is expected to weaken further, potentially reaching 150 yen per dollar [2] - Analysts from TD Securities noted that previous long positions on the yen appeared excessive and fragile, predicting continued pressure on the yen in the short term [5] Group 3 - Concerns over fiscal prospects ahead of the elections and ongoing uncertainties regarding tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have exerted pressure on both Japanese bonds and the yen [6] - The sell-off in Japanese government bonds has spread to the 10-year maturity, with yields reaching their highest level since 2008, close to 1.6%, while 20-year and 30-year bond yields have hit their highest levels since 1999 [6] - The yen has declined approximately 3% in July, following a nearly 10% increase in the first half of the year due to the weakening of the dollar amid the initiation of the U.S.-China trade war [9]