Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed. With increasing supply and weakening demand, the fundamental contradiction of rebar is accumulating, and steel prices are under pressure. However, the continuous reduction of low - level inventory is a positive factor. Under the game of long and short factors, steel prices continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the rebar 2510 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening". It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has weakened, and steel prices are oscillating to find the bottom [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply of rebar has continued to rise and reached a high level this year as construction steel mills are actively producing. In contrast, the weekly apparent demand has declined again and is at a low level in the same period in recent years, and it will seasonally weaken in the future. The demand is relatively weak. Under the situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, the fundamental contradiction of rebar is accumulating, and steel prices are under pressure. The positive factor is that the low - level inventory is continuously being destocked [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market currently has high inventory, but the basis provides some support in the short - term. In the long - run, due to weak demand and over - capacity, the price is mainly driven by the macro - environment, and the expected rebound space is limited [2]. - The caustic soda market has high supply pressure and limited demand growth. The short - term is in a volatile state, and the medium - term 09 contract is mainly for shorting [3]. - The rubber market has fundamental pressure, with slow short - term supply increase and high raw material prices providing some support, but the overall upward drive is insufficient due to strong future supply increase expectations and weak demand [4][5]. - The urea market has stable supply and expected demand release, but there is obvious upward price pressure. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [6]. - The methanol market has relatively abundant supply and strong downstream demand wait - and - see sentiment. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [7]. - The plastic market has reduced supply pressure due to increased maintenance, but weak downstream demand. It is expected to have a wide - range volatile run in the short - term [8]. Summary by Product PVC - On May 22, the PVC 09 contract closed at 4926 yuan/ton (- 43), and the market prices in different regions showed different trends. The basis strengthened recently, providing some support to the futures price [2]. - In the long - term, demand is dragged down by the real estate industry, and exports are restricted. The supply side has new investment plans, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern. The price is mainly affected by the macro - environment [2]. - The short - term tariff relief exceeds expectations, but the actual impact on demand is still expected to exist. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to tariff progress [2]. Caustic Soda - On May 22, the caustic soda SH09 contract closed at 2528 yuan/ton (+ 1), and the market prices in Shandong increased. The inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises is high and the de - stocking is not smooth [3]. - The supply side has high - profit and high -开工, with new device production expectations. The demand side is affected by tariffs, and the non - aluminum industry's demand has slowed down. The alumina industry has mixed production situations [3]. - The short - term is in a volatile state, and the medium - term 09 contract is mainly for shorting. It is necessary to pay attention to multiple factors such as delivery volume, inventory de - stocking, and alumina production [3]. Rubber - On May 22, the rubber price center declined slightly. The short - term supply increase is slow, and the high raw material prices provide some support, but the future supply increase expectation is strong and the demand is weak [4][5]. - As of May 18, the inventory in Qingdao and the social inventory of natural rubber showed different trends. The capacity utilization rates of semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises changed, and the inventory continued to increase [5]. - The prices of raw materials in Thailand and different regions in China are provided, and the basis between Yunnan full - latex and the RU main contract changed [5]. Urea - The urea 2509 contract fell 0.48% to close at 1849 yuan/ton, and the spot price continued to decline slightly. The supply side has stable production, and the cost of anthracite is stable or decreasing [6]. - The demand side shows that the capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The demand support of other industrial sectors is weak. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, and the port inventory has increased [6]. - The supply is stable, and the demand is expected to be released, but there is obvious upward price pressure. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [6]. Methanol - The methanol 2509 contract fell 1.1% to close at 2241 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Taicang decreased. The supply side has a reduced capacity utilization rate and production volume [7]. - The cost of coal - to - methanol has decreased slightly, and most are in a profitable state. The demand side shows that the olefin industry's开工 rate has decreased, and the traditional demand has limited support [7]. - The inventory of sample enterprises has increased, and the port inventory has decreased. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [7]. Plastic - On May 22, the plastic 2509 contract fell 1.01% to close at 7159 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of plastics decreased. The supply side has reduced开工 and production due to increased maintenance losses [8]. - The demand side shows that the export of plastic products has increased in the short - term, but the demand for agricultural films has declined, and the demand for packaging films and pipes is average [8]. - The inventory pressure has been relieved to some extent, but the future market expectation is still weak. It is expected to have a wide - range volatile run in the short - term [8].

| | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/21 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/5/20 2025/5/20 | 美元/桶 美元/桶 | 62.03 65.38 | 62.69 65.54 | 涨跌(幅) -1.05% -0.24% | | 上 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/5/20 | 美元/吨 | 569.63 | 569.38 | 0.04% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/5/20 | | 美元/吨 | 699.00 | 709.50 | -1.48% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/5/20 | 美元/吨 | 828.00 | 840.67 | -1.51% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/5/20 | 元/吨 | 4732.00 | 4776.0 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢格局平稳运行，周产量环比微增，继续位于年内高位，相应的周度表需回升，需求迎来 改善，但仍易季节性走弱，供高需弱局面下螺纹基本面矛盾易积累，钢价继续承压运行，相对利好 还是库存偏低，预计钢价走势将延续震荡寻底走势，重点关注需求变化情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价弱势震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 5 / 2 0 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 氧化铝涨停与后市分析 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2025年5月19日氧化铝涨停，主要是几内亚铝土矿供应风险发酵所致。几内亚政府撤销部分矿山采矿 许可，Axis矿区被下达停工指令，涉及产能约4000万吨/年，恢复时间不明，引发市场对铝土矿供应 短缺的担忧。 从基本面来看，国内氧化铝开工率下调，贵州、广西地区新增集中检修，山东也有少量检修 。电解 铝方面，虽有部分地区复产，但水电表现不佳，复产低于预期。 短期内，氧化铝价格或因供应端减产检修和矿端消息炒作继续上行。但从中期视角，1-3月国内铝土 矿进口4707万吨，自几内亚进口3639万吨。目前港口库存回升至2458万吨，超过过去2年的同期水平。 结合目前海漂库存仍有1483万吨，处于近4年高位，短中期矿石供给无虞。铝材在中美关税下出口承 压，下游电解铝维持刚需采购，一旦氧化铝产能回归，供需过剩格局可能重现，压制价格。 投资者需密切关注几内亚矿端动态、新增产能进度以及矿价波动。操作上，短期追涨需谨慎； 中长线而言，可待价格稳定后 ...

2025 年 5 月 18 日 二 〇 二 五 年 度 锰硅：矿端报价提振，锰硅震荡偏强 硅铁：主产地供应收紧，硅铁震荡偏强 | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 报告导读： 【走势回顾】本周硅铁 2506 合约走势震荡偏强，收于 5,598 元/吨，周环比变化 116 元/吨，成交 199,314 手，持仓 36,431 手，持仓环比变化-45,598 手。本周锰硅 2509 合约价格走势偏强，收于 5,858 元/吨，周环比变化 100 元/吨，成交 9698 手，持仓 35698 手，持仓环比变化-19,483 手。 【供应】硅铁本周产量为 9.35 万吨，产量较上周环比变化-0.94 万吨，环比变化率为-9.1%，周开工 率为 31.22%，较上周变动-1.31 个百分点。锰硅本周产量 16.28 万吨，产量较上周环比变化-0.93 万吨，环比变化率为-5.4%，周开工率为 33.6%，较上 ...

| 19 E K # 5 | 日度策略参 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品種 | 股指 | 震荡 | 持有的多头头寸考虑减仓,警惕进一步调整风险。 | 110 | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 容间。 | 宏观金融 | | | | | | | 短期金价或进入盘整;但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。明终 | 農汤 | 黄金 | 整体跟随黄金,但关税超预期结果将利好白银商品属性,因此短 | 農法 | 三 千尺 | | | | 期银价韧性或强于黄金。 | 近期市场情绪好转,铜价走高,但下游需求转弱,铜价存在回调 | 股 | | | | | | | 风险。 | 电解铝自身产业面无明显矛盾,在中美贸易谈判结果超预期情况 | 看头 | | | | | | | 下,铝价延续反弹走势。 | 铝土矿及氧化铝供应扰动有所提升,氧化铝供需格局有所好转 | 氧化铝 | | | | | | | 短期价格或进一步反弹。 | 步入淡季终端需求明显走弱,叠加 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - After the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the market sentiment has improved. The steel market has returned to the fundamental logic, with the hot - rolled coil production and inventory decreasing, and the inventory of five major steel products decreasing week - on - week. The iron ore market is generally in a situation of strong supply and demand, and the long - term pattern is relatively loose. The coking coal and coke markets are weak due to high inventory, and the动力煤 market is under pressure with high inventory [1][3][6] Group 3: Summary by Different Products Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of rebar was 3118 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil was 3260 yuan/ton. The spot trading was generally weak, with 100,000 tons of building materials traded nationwide. Affected by increased routine maintenance, the production and inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the inventory of five major steel products decreased week - on - week [1] - **Strategy**: The single - side strategy is to be volatile, focusing on the repair of the discount when the sentiment improves [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore was 736.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The spot trading was weak, with the total transaction volume of major ports at 1.007 million tons, a decrease of 18.33% compared with the previous day. The long - term spot transaction volume was 1.56 million tons, a decrease of 23.53%. The iron - making water production reached its peak and then declined, with the daily average of 247 steel mills at 2.4477 million tons, a decrease of 8,700 tons [3] - **Strategy**: The single - side strategy is to be volatile, focusing on the repair of the discount when the sentiment improves [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased. The inventory of imported Mongolian coal at the port increased. The supply of coke was sufficient, and the demand was weak. The supply of coking coal increased, and the market was pessimistic, with high - level inventory remaining stable [5][6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The decline of port coal prices slowed down, and the pit - mouth coal prices fluctuated weakly. The inventory at the port continued to accumulate, and the import market was weak. The demand for coal prices lacked support in the short term, and the supply pattern remained loose in the long term [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment is expected to cool down after the previous macro - positive factors are digested. The price of PX has adjusted due to the decline in raw material prices. Although the supply of Asian PX is tightening, the demand is also higher than expected, and it will still be in a de - stocking phase in the next few months. PTA prices are expected to be mainly driven by costs, with short - term prices running strongly. The polyester bottle - chip market is currently in a state of relatively high supply, and downstream demand is mainly focused on consuming previous inventories. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On May 15, 2025, the prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, naphtha, and xylene all decreased. The settlement price of WTI crude oil was $61.62/barrel, down 2.42%; the settlement price of Brent crude oil was $64.53/barrel, down 2.36%; the spot price of naphtha was $572/ton, down 3.05%; and the spot price of xylene was $709/ton, down 3.08% [1] - **PTA Futures and Spot**: On May 15, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,798 yuan/ton, down 1.56%; the settlement price was 4,824 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 5,103 yuan/ton, up 3.45% [1] - **PX Futures and Spot**: On May 15, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,762 yuan/ton, down 1.72%; the settlement price was 6,806 yuan/ton, down 0.82%. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged at 6,817 yuan/ton [1] - **PR Futures and Spot**: On May 15, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 6,116 yuan/ton, down 1.35%; the settlement price was 6,154 yuan/ton, down 0.10%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6,150 yuan/ton, down 0.49% [1] - **Downstream**: On May 15, 2025, the prices of most downstream products increased slightly. The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,900 yuan/ton, up 0.56%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,250 yuan/ton, up 0.69% [2] Operating Conditions - On May 15, 2025, the operating rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, and bottle - chip factories remained unchanged. The operating rate of PX was 73.32%, the PTA factory load rate was 74.41%, the polyester factory load rate was 91.34%, and the bottle - chip factory load rate was 85.13%. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased by 3.83 percentage points to 68.10% [1] Production and Sales Rates - On May 15, 2025, the production and sales rates of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips all decreased. The production and sales rate of polyester filament was 36%, down 16 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 44%, down 17 percentage points; and the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 41%, down 52 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest is planned to restart between May 15 and 20 [2] Trading Strategies - The TA2509 contract closed at 4,798 yuan/ton, down 1.11%, with an intraday trading volume of 1.35 million lots; the 2509 contract closed at 6,762 yuan/ton, down 1.46%, with an intraday trading volume of 30,500 lots; the PR 2507 contract closed at 6,116 yuan/ton, down 0.71%, with an intraday trading volume of 50,000 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]

Summary of Coal Chemical Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal chemical industry is significantly influenced by coal prices, with cost control being a key factor for profitability. China dominates the global coal chemical market, holding pricing power in certain products, which contrasts with the global energy landscape [1][2][3]. - The decline in crude oil prices has weakened the relative advantage of coal oil, but the overall situation remains manageable. The coal coking sector is affected by a sluggish real estate market, maintaining low price differentials [1][2]. Key Market Dynamics - In the second half of 2024, the price differentials between synthetic ammonia and methanol are expected to overlap, indicating a shift in supply-demand dynamics [1][5][6]. - The new methanol and synthetic ammonia capacity from Hechang will exceed 4 million tons in 2024, impacting the supply-demand balance and putting pressure on price differentials [1][8]. - The methanol market is experiencing capacity growth driven by downstream products, with the MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) ratio increasing, which inversely amplifies the coal oil linkage effect [1][9]. Price Trends and Projections - Crude oil prices are projected to fluctuate around $80 per barrel in 2025, with a notable decline of $5 from Q3 to Q4 2024. In contrast, coal prices remain stable at approximately 700 RMB per ton [3][4]. - The urea market is expected to enter a downward cycle due to increased supply pressure from new capacity releases, with significant price drops anticipated starting in the second half of 2024 [3][12][13]. - The acetic acid market is facing continuous pressure from new capacity releases, with prices expected to decline further, although it is not anticipated to enter a loss-making state [3][16]. Profitability and Cost Control - The profitability of coal chemical enterprises is under pressure due to product price declines, despite stable coal prices. The first quarter of 2025 may see some recovery in profitability due to improved coal prices [1][17]. - The cost advantages of coal-to-olefins (CTO) processes are significant, with profitability typically higher than other methods. However, the CTO price differential may narrow if crude oil prices remain low [1][10][11]. Future Considerations - The coal chemical industry is expected to face challenges in 2024 and 2025, with a focus on core cost control capabilities becoming increasingly important for profitability [2][15]. - The overall supply-demand dynamics in the synthetic ammonia and methanol markets are changing, with potential implications for pricing strategies and market positioning [6][7][8]. Conclusion - The coal chemical industry is navigating a complex landscape influenced by fluctuating raw material prices, capacity expansions, and changing market dynamics. Continuous monitoring of these factors will be essential for strategic decision-making and investment opportunities [1][2][3].