1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The downward trend of PX and PTA may be difficult to reverse due to weakening demand and high inventory. The polyester industry chain is expected to continue its weak operation, with the core drivers being the marginal weakening of demand and the suppression of absolute high inventory. PTA processing fees may further shrink, and inventory reduction depends on large - scale production cuts or unexpectedly strong demand [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On August 6, 2025, the PX main contract closed at 6,794.0 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 98.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,724.0 yuan/ton, up 0.9% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 64.0 yuan/ton [2]. - Cost - end: On August 6, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 67.68 US dollars/barrel, and WTI at 65.17 US dollars/barrel. OPEC + plans to increase production from August to September, and the pressure of oil price surplus is gradually materializing. The low - level oscillation of crude oil prices provides limited cost support for PX, but attention should be paid to the risk of crude oil supply disturbances caused by the North American hurricane season [2]. - Supply - end: The basis of PX and PTA main contracts maintains a contango structure, indicating a relatively loose supply pattern in the current spot market. The recent compression of PTA processing fees has led to production cuts in some plants, offsetting the output of newly - commissioned plants, and the supply pressure of TA has slightly decreased [2]. - Demand - end: The trading volume of Light Textile City has been continuously lower than the seasonal average, confirming the weak peak - season characteristics of terminal textile demand. The inventory pressure in the polyester segment is transmitted upstream in the industrial chain. Although large - scale polyester enterprises maintain rigid operation in the short term, the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain has not been fully released [2]. - Inventory - end: The current PTA factory inventory is at a medium level. The deterioration of processing fees has led to production cuts and load reduction in plants. The operating rate of downstream polyester segments remains at a low level characteristic of the off - season. Demand has not reached the end of the off - season, and there is no more positive support for the supply - demand situation at the PX end, with insufficient upward driving force [3]. 3.1.2 Polyester - On August 6, 2025, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,414.0 yuan/ton, up 1.46% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,480.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 66.0 yuan/ton [4]. - The futures prices of PX and PTA showed a trend of rising first and then falling from late July to early August 2025. PX dropped from a high of 6,984 yuan/ton to 6,794 yuan/ton, and PTA dropped from 4,856 yuan/ton to 4,724 yuan/ton, reflecting the weakening of cost support and a loose supply pattern [4]. - The 15 - day moving average trading volume of Light Textile City decreased from a high of 4940,000 meters to 4840,000 meters, indicating a marginal weakening of terminal replenishment momentum. The inventories of various polyester products are significantly higher than the five - year average, and the inventory pressure is fully prominent [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX: The main contract price of PX futures increased by 0.89%, the trading volume increased by 21.42%, and the open interest decreased by 2.15%. The spot prices in China's main port CFR and South Korea FOB remained unchanged. The PX basis decreased by 157.89% [5]. - PTA: The main contract price of PTA futures increased by 0.90%, the trading volume increased by 33.21%, and the open interest decreased by 5.94%. The spot price in China's main port CFR remained unchanged. The PTA basis decreased by 190.91%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 9.52%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 17.07%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 25.00%. The PTA import profit decreased by 0.39% [5]. - Short - fiber: The main contract price of short - fiber futures increased by 1.46%, the trading volume increased by 78.51%, and the open interest increased by 172.71%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 0.08%. The PF basis decreased by 59.51%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 3.23%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.47%, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged [5]. - Other: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged on August 6 compared with August 5 [5]. - Processing spreads: The processing spread of PTA decreased by 2.58%, while the processing spreads of naphtha, PX, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester short - fiber, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged [6]. - Light Textile City trading volume: The total trading volume on August 6 was 4330,000 meters, a 10.18% increase from the previous day, with 3580,000 meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 780,000 meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [6][8]. - Industrial chain load rate: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged on August 6 compared with August 5 [6]. - Inventory days: From July 24 to July 31, 2025, the inventory days of polyester short - fiber increased by 0.51%, polyester POY by 16.77%, polyester FDY by 13.79%, and polyester DTY by 5.34% [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macro Dynamics - On August 6, Trump said he might soon announce a new Federal Reserve Chairman, with four candidates, and Bessent hoped to stay in the Treasury. - On August 5, Trump said he would significantly increase tariffs on India for its purchase of Russian crude oil, and India responded that the accusation was unfounded. - On August 5, Goldman Sachs expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times in a row starting from September; if the unemployment rate rises further, it may cut interest rates by 50 basis points. - On August 5, Citigroup raised its gold price forecast for the next 0 - 3 months to 3,500 US dollars/ounce (previously 3,300 US dollars/ounce). - On August 5, Federal Reserve's Daly said the time for interest - rate cuts was approaching, and the number of interest - rate cuts within the year was more likely to be more than two. - On August 5, Trump said he would announce a candidate to fill the vacant Federal Reserve governor position in the next few days [7]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand - Demand - On August 6, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 4330,000 meters, a 10.18% increase from the previous day, with 3580,000 meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 780,000 meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to PX and PTA main futures and basis, PX and PTA spot prices, PX capacity utilization, etc., with data sources from Wind and Tonghui Futures R & D Department [9][11][13][15]. 3.5 Appendix: Big - Model Inference Process - Supply - end: The basis of PX and PTA being negative may indicate relatively sufficient spot supply. The price increases of PTA and PX may be supported by crude oil costs or due to supply shortages. Further analysis of factors such as plant maintenance and changes in operating rates is needed [33]. - Demand - end: The decline in the trading volume of Light Textile City may indicate weakening downstream demand, which in turn may lead to a decrease in PTA demand and put pressure on prices. The impact of polyester operating rates on PTA demand needs to be considered in combination with other factors [34]. - Inventory - end: Without specific inventory data, the change in inventory can be inferred from the supply and demand situation. If supply decreases while demand remains stable, inventory may decline; if supply increases while demand decreases, inventory may rise [34]. - Overall view: Future PX prices may fluctuate strongly, affected by crude oil and its own supply - demand situation. PTA prices may be limited in upward space or under pressure due to weak downstream demand and inventory pressure [36].

Group 1 - Analysts believe that the Indian stock market will face adjustment pressure due to the U.S. imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, raising the total tariff rate to 50% [1][4] - The sectors most affected include oil, pharmaceuticals, textiles, footwear, and jewelry, as these industries are closely tied to U.S. trade [1][6] - Foreign investors sold $2 billion worth of Indian stocks in July and an additional $900 million in August, indicating a trend of capital outflow amid rising uncertainties [4][5] Group 2 - The Indian economy has approximately 20% of its export goods (2% of GDP) directed towards the U.S., making it vulnerable to the new tariffs [6] - The pharmaceutical sector has seen significant declines, with the NSE Nifty pharmaceutical index breaking key technical support levels, indicating potential further declines [7] - Companies like Reliance Industries may face pressure if India succumbs to U.S. demands to limit oil purchases from Russia, which could impact refining margins [6]

特朗普最新表态，如果欧盟不履行义务，将对欧盟征收35%的关税。 据央视新闻，当地时间5日，欧盟负责贸易的高级官员对外解释美欧日前签订的关税协定。 特朗普：将大幅提高印度关税 北京时间8月5日晚间，美国总统特朗普表示，将在未来24小时内大幅提高印度关税，印度是关税最高的 国家。他表示，印度并不是一个好的贸易伙伴，与印度存在的分歧在于关税过高。 据央视新闻，当地时间8月4日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"发文表示，印度不仅大量购买 俄罗斯石油，还将其中大部分石油在公开市场上出售，牟取暴利。因此，他将大幅提高印度向美国缴纳 的关税。 特朗普上月在"真实社交"平台上向印度发出威胁：如果印度继续购买俄罗斯武器和石油，美方将在对印 度商品征收25%进口关税的基础上额外施加惩罚性关税。8月1日，特朗普又对媒体记者说，他相信印度 打算停止购买俄罗斯石油。 路透社8月2日援引印度政府消息人士说，印俄双方所签为"长期石油合同"，"要在一夕之间停止采购， 不是这么简单的事"。另一名消息人士说，印度进口俄罗斯石油，协助抑制全球油价上涨。在美国为首 的西方国家自2022年2月起对俄罗斯能源实施制裁后，全球油价并未显著上涨。这两 ...

特朗普表示，他已将潜在的未来美联储主席范围缩小到四名候选人，该名单不包括财政部长斯科特·贝 森特。 他表示：" 一年，最多一年半，税率将升至150%，之后将升至250%，因为我们希望药品在我们国家生 产。"但他没有透露药品的初始关税税率是多少。 综合自：央视新闻 特朗普表示， 他还将在"下周左右"宣布对半导体和芯片征收关税，但未详细说明。 此外，特朗普表示，鉴于印度持续购买俄罗斯石油， 他将在未来24小时内"大幅"提高对印度输美商品 征收的关税，目前税率为25%。特朗普并没有明确提到对印度的新关税税率。 此前一天，8月4日，特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"发文表示，印度不仅大量购买俄罗斯石油，还将其 中大部分石油在公开市场上出售，牟取暴利。因此，他将大幅提高印度向美国缴纳的关税。 当地时间8月5日，美国总统特朗普在接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）采访时表示， 美国将首 先对进口药品征收"小额关税"，并在一年左右的时间内提高税率。 另外，特朗普还表示，可能很快宣布美联储新任主席。 责编：陈丽湘 ...

Group 1 - President Trump announced plans to significantly increase tariffs on India, citing high tariffs and trade disagreements as key issues [2] - Trump accused India of profiting from the sale of Russian oil, which it purchases in large quantities, and threatened additional punitive tariffs on Indian goods [2] - Indian officials responded that halting Russian oil purchases is not a simple task due to long-term contracts [2] Group 2 - Trump stated that if the European Union does not fulfill its obligations, a 35% tariff will be imposed on EU goods [3] - A new trade agreement between the US and EU was reached, establishing a uniform 15% tariff rate on most EU exports to the US [4] - The EU emphasized that while formal terms are still being developed, the framework agreement has already provided immediate relief [5] Group 3 - Trump plans to announce a significant increase in drug tariffs, starting with a small initial rate that could rise to 250% [6] - The banking sector faced scrutiny as Trump claimed discrimination against conservative clients by major banks, leading to a slight decline in stock prices for major banks [7] Group 4 - The US trade deficit narrowed in June, primarily due to a significant drop in consumer goods imports, reflecting the impact of Trump's tariffs on global trade [9] - The overall trade deficit decreased by 16.0% to $60.2 billion, marking the lowest level since September 2023 [9]

特朗普：将大幅提高印度关税 一起来看下最新的海外动态。 【导读】特朗普：将大幅提高印度关税 北京时间8月5日晚间，美国总统特朗普表示，将在未来24小时内大幅提高印度关税，印度是关税最高的 国家。他表示，印度并不是一个好的贸易伙伴，与印度存在的分歧在于关税过高。 据央视新闻，当地时间8月4日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"发文表示，印度不仅大量购买 俄罗斯石油，还将其中大部分石油在公开市场上出售，牟取暴利。因此，他将大幅提高印度向美国缴纳 的关税。 特朗普上月在"真实社交"平台上向印度发出威胁：如果印度继续购买俄罗斯武器和石油，美方将在对印 度商品征收25%进口关税的基础上额外施加惩罚性关税。8月1日，特朗普又对媒体记者说，他相信印度 打算停止购买俄罗斯石油。 特朗普最新表态，如果欧盟不履行义务，将对欧盟征收35%的关税。 最终会提高到250% 据央视新闻，当地时间5日，欧盟负责贸易的高级官员对外解释美欧日前签订的关税协定。 据称，根据美欧最新达成的框架性贸易协议，美国决定对绝大多数欧盟出口商品统一征收15%的关税税 率，该税率已包括对最惠国待遇下商品的适用税率。欧盟出口商无需再单独应对不同品类的税率， ...

Summary of the Conference Call on US-China Trade Talks Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Trade relations between the United States and China - **Company**: J.P. Morgan Key Points and Arguments Trade Negotiations Overview - The third round of trade negotiations between China and the US took place in Stockholm on July 28-29, 2025, following previous meetings in Geneva and London. The meeting was described as "very constructive" but did not yield significant breakthroughs or concrete outcomes [2][3][4] Tariff Truce and Future Meetings - A tariff truce announced after the Geneva talks is set to expire on August 12, 2025, but is likely to be extended pending President Trump's approval. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that a 90-day extension is a possibility, suggesting a potential summit between President Trump and President Xi in November 2025 [2][4] Economic Developments and Trade Imbalances - Discussions included updates on economic developments in both countries, efforts to reduce bilateral trade imbalances, and the implementation of previous agreements, particularly concerning China's rare earth exports to the US and US technology export controls [3][6] Tariff Rates and Projections - The US average effective tariff rate is projected to rise to 18-20%, up from 13.4% at the beginning of the year. New general tariff rates of 15% for the EU and Japan and a 20% ceiling for ASEAN were mentioned, with ongoing negotiations with Korea, India, and Taiwan [5][6] Impact on China's Economic Outlook - The outcome of trade negotiations and tariffs is crucial for China's economic outlook in the second half of 2025 and into 2026. The current tariff rate of 42% on Chinese imports is expected to remain stable, although sector-specific tariffs may increase due to ongoing investigations [6][8] Global Trade Dynamics - The US's trade negotiations with other partners could negatively impact China if higher tariffs reduce US import demand. However, if the increase in tariffs on China is smaller than those on other trading partners, the impact on Chinese imports may be less severe than anticipated [9][10] Multilateral Trade Relationships - China's trade relationships with non-US partners are becoming increasingly important as the US adopts a unilateral trade approach. There are calls for trade multilateralism, but concerns about China's manufacturing dominance complicate these efforts [10][11] Risks and Uncertainties - While the worst of the tariff shocks may be over, trade uncertainty remains a significant risk for the Chinese economy. The Chinese government's response to external uncertainties and domestic challenges will be critical [11] Other Important Content - The document includes contact information for analysts involved in the research, emphasizing the independence of the research team and the importance of compliance with regulatory standards [7][25][57]

Group 1 - Taxpayers in China are required to declare and pay taxes on overseas income from stock trading, as there are no tax exemptions for such income according to the personal income tax law [1] - Shanghai has issued measures to support enterprises in enhancing basic research, aiming to attract more companies in integrated circuits, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence to join the "Explorer Program" [2] - Significant progress has been made in HIV vaccine research in China, with the completion of the first phase clinical trial of a replicating Tian Tan smallpox vaccine vector HIV vaccine [3] Group 2 - In July 2025, A-share new accounts reached 1.96 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 71% compared to July 2024, and a month-on-month increase of 19.27% [4] - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.18 million units in July, marking a year-on-year growth of 25% but a month-on-month decline of 4% [6] - Companies such as Fengli Intelligent and Lvtong Technology are planning to raise funds through private placements and acquisitions, indicating active capital market activities [7][8] Group 3 - Guizhou Moutai has repurchased a total of 3.45 million shares, with a total payment of 5.301 billion yuan [10] - The net profit of Shangwei New Materials for the first half of the year is expected to be 29.9 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.91% [10] - The net profit of Haowei Group is projected to increase by 39% to 50% year-on-year for the first half of the year [10] Group 4 - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation plans to absorb China Shipbuilding, which may lead to the termination of the latter's stock listing [12] - The U.S. President has indicated plans to increase tariffs on India due to its oil trade practices, which could impact international trade dynamics [13] - The Federal Reserve's comments suggest potential interest rate cuts, which could influence market conditions and investment strategies [14]

美国总统特朗普在社交平台发文称，印度不仅大量购买俄罗斯石油，还将其中大部分在公开市场上转 售，赚取巨额利润。特朗普表示，将大幅提高印度向美国支付的关税。 ...

Group 1 - The average tariff rate in the US increased to 18.3% after August 1, down approximately 4 percentage points from 22.5% on April 2 [62][63] - The new tariff rates for countries with trade agreements range from 10% to 20%, while those for countries with trade deficits range from 25% to 41% [62][63] - Ongoing negotiations between the US and other countries, including India, aim to finalize a phase one agreement by fall 2025, focusing on agricultural products, medical devices, and digital trade tariffs [62] Group 2 - Developed market indices experienced declines, with the S&P 500 down 2.4% and the French CAC40 down 3.7% [2][3] - Emerging market indices also saw declines, with the South Korean Composite Index down 2.4% and the Ho Chi Minh Index down 2.3% [3] - The majority of sectors within the S&P 500 fell, with materials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and financials down 5.4%, 4.5%, 3.9%, and 3.8% respectively [6] Group 3 - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond decreased by 17.0 basis points to 4.2% [16] - The yield on 10-year bonds in other developed markets also fell, with Germany at 2.8% and Japan at 1.6% [16] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields mostly declined, with Turkey down 21.0 basis points to 29.3% and South Africa down 24.0 basis points to 9.6% [22] Group 4 - The US dollar index rose by 1.0% to 98.69, while most other currencies depreciated against the dollar [27] - The offshore Chinese yuan depreciated to 7.1929 against the dollar [39] - Major emerging market currencies also saw depreciation, with the Mexican peso down 1.6% and the Philippine peso down 1.0% [27] Group 5 - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with WTI crude oil rising 3.3% to $67.3 per barrel, while coking coal prices fell 13.2% to 1093 yuan per ton [45] - Precious metals experienced varied performance, with COMEX gold up 0.9% to $3360.1 per ounce, while COMEX silver fell 3.4% to $36.8 per ounce [52]