*三大股指上扬，纳指涨近0.7%； *中长期美债收益率走高，基准10年期美债报4.61%； *受特朗普言论影响，汽车和钢铁股悲喜两重天。 周一美股低开高走，尽管美国总统特朗普发表上调进口钢铁和铝关税言论，但投资者仍对美国与其贸易 伙伴之间的贸易谈判持乐观态度。截至收盘，道指涨35.41点，涨幅0.08%，报42305.48点，录得日线三 连阳，纳指涨0.67%，报19242.61点，标普500指数涨0.41%，报5935.94点。 明星科技股涨多跌少，Meta Platforms涨3.6%，英伟达涨1.6%，亚马逊涨0.8%，苹果涨0.4%，微软涨 0.3%，谷歌跌1.5%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.5%。 市场概述 经济数据方面，供应管理协会（ISM）周一公布的数据显示，美国5月份制造业指数跌至48.5，连续第 三个月收缩，供应商在关税压力下交付投入的时间更长，这可能预示着一些商品即将出现短缺。 标普全球市场情报（S&P Global Market Intelligence）首席商业经济学家威廉姆森（Chris Williamson） 表示，尽管上个月制造商的整体情绪有所改善，部分原因是暂停关税，但"在不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, particularly focusing on the decline of major indices and the impact of U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, which has led to significant gains in the steel and aluminum sectors. Market Performance - On June 2, the three major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.5%, S&P 500 down 0.25%, and Nasdaq down 0.05% [1] - Specific stock performances include Tesla dropping nearly 3% due to poor sales in Europe [1][8] Steel and Aluminum Sector - Following President Trump's announcement to increase tariffs on imported steel from 25% to 50%, steel and aluminum stocks surged, with Century Aluminum rising over 28%, Cleveland-Cliffs up over 21%, and Nucor and Steel Dynamics both increasing over 10% [5][6][7] - The market response indicates a strong bullish sentiment in the steel and aluminum sectors due to the tariff hike [5] Tesla's Sales Performance - Tesla's sales in Europe were notably poor in May, with France experiencing a 67% drop, marking the lowest sales level in nearly three years. Other countries like Portugal, Denmark, and Sweden also reported significant declines in sales [8][9] - As of the latest trading session, Tesla's stock price fell by 2.69%, contributing to a year-to-date decline of 16% [9] Technology Sector Performance - In the technology sector, Nvidia rose by 1%, while Apple saw a slight increase, and Meta Platforms gained over 1%. Conversely, Amazon and Microsoft experienced minor declines, with Google down 1.59% [10][11]

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Metal Stocks - President Trump's announcement to increase tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% has significantly influenced U.S. metal stocks, strengthening domestic producers by reducing foreign competition and increasing prices [1][2] - Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE: CLF) stock surged about 33% in pre-market trading following the tariff announcement, while Nucor Corp (NYSE: NUE) shares rose around 13% [2] - United States Steel stock (NYSE:X) increased by 22% over the past week and is up nearly 65% year-to-date [2] Group 2: Cleveland-Cliffs Performance - Cleveland-Cliffs stock has decreased by 66% over the last year and approximately 76% over the past three years, with a 15% revenue decline in the last twelve months [3][4] - The company's price-to-sales (PS) multiple has dropped from 1.1x in 2020 to 0.48x in 2023, currently at 0.2x, indicating potential for upside compared to previous years [4] - For Q1 2025, Cleveland-Cliffs reported revenues of $4.6 billion, up from $4.3 billion in Q4 2024, but incurred a net loss of $483 million, attributed to underutilized assets and low steel prices [5] Group 3: Strategic Responses and Future Outlook - Cleveland-Cliffs plans to temporarily close several facilities and pause capital spending on a transformer facility, expecting to save over $300 million annually [5] - The long-term impact of the tariff increase on metal stocks will depend on the sustainability of the tariffs, global market responses, and domestic production capabilities [6] - Diversification across sectors and stocks is emphasized as vital to mitigate concentration risk, with the Trefis High Quality (HQ) portfolio outperforming major indices with returns exceeding 91% since inception [7]

时局依然不稳！ 今天早上，全球市场全线杀跌。日经指数一度杀跌近1.5%，中国台湾股指大跌近1%，港股三大指数全线杀 跌，恒生科技指数一度杀跌近3%，A50跌幅亦明显扩大。与此同时，美股三大期指亦是集体杀跌。那么，究 竟又发生了什么？ 分析人士认为，可能有三大变数出现。 一是，关税方向， 除了欧洲发出征收报复性关税信号之外，据报道，美国众议院上周通过的美国总统特朗普 税务及开支法案，即《大而美法案》，内容包括大幅修改在美海外资本税务安排的条款，包括向外国在美资本 投资征收报复税收条款。 二是，俄乌方向， 在俄乌谈判之际，局势突然恶化。据乌克兰安全局消息人士称，乌克兰无人机1日袭击了多 个俄罗斯军用机场，其中包括位于西伯利亚东部深处的贝拉亚军事基地。包括A-50、图-95和图-22 M3在内的 40多架飞机在此次行动中受损，损失约为20亿美元。 全球股市再度进入到情绪低迷期。今天早上，亚太股市开盘，几乎是全线杀跌。其中，率先开盘的日本股市持 续走低，跌幅扩大至1.5%附近；中国台湾股市在低开之后，跌幅扩大至1%。 香港股市波动更大，恒生指数开盘报23043.10点。翰森制药跌超4%，比亚迪股份跌近3%，快手跌2. ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of Emirates Airlines stated that there has been no observed change in demand patterns due to tariff adjustments [1] Group 1 - Emirates Airlines has not seen any impact on demand as a result of tariff changes [1]

SHEIN's IPO Plans - SHEIN is reportedly planning to shift its IPO focus to Hong Kong, aiming to submit an application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange soon and complete the IPO within the year [2] - The company's IPO journey has faced multiple setbacks since 2020, including a failed attempt to go public in the U.S. due to geopolitical changes and subsequent adjustments to its corporate structure [2][3] - In 2024, SHEIN's sales are projected to increase by nearly 40% to approximately $10 billion, with overall revenue growth expected to reach 19% to $38 billion, although profits are anticipated to be significantly lower than the company's expectations [3] Birkenstock's Price Increase - Birkenstock plans to raise global prices to offset the impact of a 10% tariff on EU goods imposed by the U.S., with some styles seeing price increases close to 10% [4] - The company reported a revenue of €574.3 million in Q2 2025, a 19% year-over-year increase, with the Americas market growing by 23% [5] - Birkenstock is expanding its presence in Asia, particularly in China, India, and the Middle East, with a focus on online retail [5] Walmart's Restructuring and Layoffs - Walmart plans to lay off approximately 1,500 employees as part of a restructuring effort to simplify operations and reduce costs, primarily affecting its global tech department and e-commerce fulfillment operations [6] - The company will raise prices on certain products starting at the end of May due to increased costs from tariffs, with CEO Doug McMillon stating that the company cannot absorb all tariff pressures [6] - This marks the second round of layoffs for Walmart in 2023, following earlier job cuts in February [6][7] Jacquemus Group Formation - French designer brand Jacquemus has established a holding company, Jacquemus La Maison Mère, marking its transition to a group structure [18] - The new company has an overall valuation of €576.1 million, following a strategic partnership with L'Oréal, which acquired a 10% minority stake in Jacquemus [18][19] Dior's Creative Director Resignation - Maria Grazia Chiuri has resigned as the artistic director of Dior's women's wear, ending speculation about her future [21] - Under her leadership, Dior's sales grew from €2.2 billion in 2017 to €9 billion in 2023, making it one of the fastest-growing brands in the luxury fashion sector [21] ELF Beauty's Acquisition - ELF Beauty announced the acquisition of Hailey Bieber's skincare brand, Rhode, for a total of $1 billion, marking the largest acquisition in ELF's 18-year history [24] - The deal will involve an initial payment of $800 million, with the remaining $200 million contingent on Rhode meeting specific revenue targets from 2025 to 2027 [25] POLA Group's Exit from China - POLA Group has announced the dissolution and liquidation of its wholly-owned subsidiary in China, raising concerns about the potential exit of its ORBIS brand from the Chinese market [26] - The subsidiary has experienced continuous declines in operating and net profits from 2022 to 2024, with 2024 revenue estimated at only 40 million RMB [26]

Core Viewpoint - The recent court ruling regarding tariffs has positively impacted consumer goods companies, particularly Kohl's, which reported better-than-expected Q1 earnings despite ongoing sales declines [1][6][10]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - A U.S. Court of International Trade ordered the lifting of certain tariffs imposed by President Trump, which has led to a positive reaction in the stock prices of consumer goods companies [1][2]. - Companies like Deckers Outdoor and Five Below saw stock increases of 1.9% and 2.6% respectively, while Kohl's stock rose by 4.3% [3][4]. Group 2: Kohl's Q1 Earnings - Kohl's reported a smaller-than-expected loss of $0.13 per share against an analyst forecast of a $0.22 loss, with sales reaching $3.1 billion [6][8]. - The company experienced a 4.1% decline in sales and a 3.9% decline in same-store sales, but managed to improve its gross margin by 37 basis points to 39.9% [7][8]. Group 3: Future Guidance - Kohl's forecasts a sales decline of 5% to 7% through the end of 2025, indicating worsening sales trends compared to the 4.1% decline reported in Q1 [9]. - The company expects to be profitable for the year, projecting earnings between $0.10 and $0.60 per share, which falls short of Wall Street's expectation of $0.67 [10]. Group 4: Stock Valuation - Kohl's stock is currently priced at approximately $8, translating to a valuation of 12.5 times analyst forecasts, which are likely to decrease in line with the new guidance [11]. - If Kohl's achieves the midpoint of its earnings guidance at $0.35 per share, the stock would be valued at around 24 times current-year earnings, which is considered too high given the declining sales and earnings [12].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted earnings per share for Q1 2025 were $0.22, down from $0.88 in the previous year [29] - Total sales for Q1 2025 were $614.2 million, a decline of 6.8% year over year, which was below expectations of a 5% to 6% decline [26][27] - Consolidated gross margin decreased to 45.4%, down 150 basis points compared to last year [27] - Operating earnings were $12.2 million, resulting in an operating margin of 2% [28] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - Brand Portfolio sales declined by 6.9%, with gross margin at 43.8%, down 280 basis points due to lower initial margins and higher markdown reserves [27][28] - Famous Footwear sales decreased by 6.3%, with comparable sales down 4.6%, but e-commerce sales increased by 2.5% [20][21] - The Brand Portfolio's lead brands, including Sam Edelman and Allen Edmonds, represented about 60% of sales and 80% of operating earnings [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Brand Portfolio gained market share in women's fashion footwear despite overall sales declines [11] - Famous Footwear gained 0.5 points of market share in shoe chains within the kids category [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to reduce SG&A expenses by $15 million annually through structural cuts [7][34] - An acquisition of Stuart Weitzman is expected to enhance the company's premium positioning and direct-to-consumer presence [19] - The company is focusing on optimizing sourcing strategies and managing inventory levels in response to tariff impacts [9][32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged a challenging operating environment and emphasized the need to drive growth and profitability [6][7] - There is cautious optimism regarding back-to-school preparations, with no major cancellations reported [40] - The company is suspending guidance due to the volatile environment but is seeing improving retail trends [33][34] Other Important Information - Inventory levels increased by 8.1% year over year, with a significant portion attributed to the upcoming launch of the Jordan brand [30] - Cash flow from operations was negative $5.7 million due to lower net income and higher inventory levels [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: How are you thinking about the prices of your portfolio brands moving into the summer and fall? - The company is making selective price increases, starting with fall receipts, and is managing this in real-time with key partners [38][39] Question: What adjustments are being made for the $15 million in strategic expense cutting? - The reductions are permanent and structural, expected to begin in the third quarter, with $7.5 million in savings for the back half of the year [43][44] Question: How is the Jordan launch performing? - Early trends for the Jordan launch are encouraging, with strong sell-throughs in men's and boys' categories [56][57] Question: What is the impact of tariffs on the business? - The company is managing tariff-related challenges through factory concessions and selective price increases, but the situation remains fluid [32][60] Question: How should we think about inventory reserves and customer credit issues moving forward? - The company believes it has adequately reserved for spring product markdowns and is closely monitoring customer credit ratings [62][63]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Insights - The overseas shading fabric market is large, and domestic companies are accelerating their international expansion, with market share expected to continue increasing. Some domestic shading material companies have also expanded into overseas shading finished products, primarily through cross-border e-commerce, achieving significant results [4][9] - The company West Gate (605155, Buy) is recommended for attention due to its dual-driven strategy focusing on shading fabrics and finished products, with potential for improved profitability [4] Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The U.S. government announced a reduction in tariffs on small packages from 120% to 54%, easing the pressure on cross-border e-commerce businesses. This adjustment is expected to maintain the competitiveness of Chinese shading finished products in the U.S. market [9] - The shading materials industry is experiencing a dual-driven growth model, with domestic companies leveraging manufacturing advantages to capture a stable growth in the overseas shading fabric market [9] Company Performance - West Gate's shading finished product business achieved revenue of 320 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 119.7%, primarily driven by cross-border e-commerce [9] - The gross profit margin for this business was 48.7%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.0 percentage points, indicating strong profitability potential [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall EC market showed a volatile downward trend [9]. - Spot prices in May averaged between 1700 - 1800 $/FEU, with a slight decline compared to early May. Affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and demand recovery on the US route, airlines attempted to raise June freight rates on the European route. Market sentiment was influenced by shipping companies' price adjustments [10]. - The strategy is to gradually take profit on long positions and arbitrage [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was at 1586, up 7.21% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was at 1107, up 0.23%. Rates on different routes had varying changes, such as a 5.95% increase on the SCFI - US West route and a - 1.44% decrease on the SCFIS - Northwest Europe route [5]. - **Contracts**: For contracts like EC2506, EC2508, etc., most showed a decline. For example, EC2506 was at 1773.0, down - 0.51% from the previous value [5]. - **Positions**: Positions of different contracts also changed. For instance, EC2506's position decreased by 1440 to 15946 [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread was 600.1, down 65.0 from the previous value [5]. Spot Market - **May Spot**: The average price in May was between 1700 - 1800 $/FEU, with a slight decline compared to early May [10]. - **June Price Adjustments**: Affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and demand recovery on the US route, airlines tried to raise June freight rates on the European route. Some shipping companies made price adjustments, such as CMA reducing prices in early and mid - June, and Maersk adjusting prices on different routes [10]. Market Conditions - **Overall Trend**: The market was in a volatile downward trend. After the Sino - US negotiation results exceeded expectations, contracts first rose rapidly and then returned to fundamental games, with overall volatility this week [9][10]. - **Contract Focus Shift**: As the June pricing became clearer, the market started to focus on the more certain 06 contract, and the spread between the 6 - 8 contracts began to shrink [10]. Trade News - China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days [6]. - US President Trump said the US may unilaterally set new tariff rates for many trading partners in the next two to three weeks [7]. - The fourth round of Japan - US tariff negotiations is scheduled for the 30th [8]. - Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting from June 1st [8].