Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coking coal, maintain a volatile outlook in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with intraday being slightly stronger. Supply disruptions persist, and the futures market is in a volatile adjustment phase. It is expected to maintain wide - range volatility, and attention should be paid to the July production in Shanxi coal mines [1][5] - For coke, maintain a volatile outlook in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with intraday being slightly weaker. With the potential increase in coking coal production after the end of the safety production month, cost - side supply disruptions re - emerge. It is expected to maintain wide - range volatility, and attention should be paid to the actual production of coking coal [1][8] Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the main production areas resumed production after safety inspections, causing concerns about supply. In the week of June 27, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 73.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 million tons and 3.5 million tons lower than the same period last year. From June 16 - 21, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 4,207 vehicles, a week - on - week increase of 374 vehicles, equivalent to a daily average of 701.2 vehicles [5] - **Demand**: The combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 111.97 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 million tons [5] Coke - **Supply**: The combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 111.97 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 million tons. After the fourth price cut on June 23, the profit per ton of coke for sample independent coking enterprises was - 46 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan/ton, and the production expansion enthusiasm was average [8] - **Demand**: In the week of June 27, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 242.29 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.11 million tons, and the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, unchanged from the previous week [8]

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 主产国预期产量强劲，原糖承压 报告内容摘要: [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-07-01 [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将增产，而巴西的干旱影响相对有限， ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1375.74 points, down 3.17 points or 0.23% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1907.36 points, down 4.39 points or 0.23% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - The photovoltaic industry chain continues to show strength, with industrial silicon contracts hitting the limit up before retreating, closing with a 2.94% increase, while polysilicon surged by 4.55%, leading the domestic commodity market [3] - Multiple factors are driving the upward momentum for industrial silicon, including strong policy expectations for "price limits and production guarantees" in the photovoltaic sector, rumors of major manufacturers reducing production, and rising coking coal prices supporting costs [3] - Despite the optimistic sentiment, the market is cautious as downstream demand remains limited, and short-term feedback pressure on photovoltaic raw materials persists, which may restrict the upward price potential [4] Group 3 - Coking coal prices rebounded significantly due to production cuts in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, but prices retreated as market expectations shifted towards a recovery in coal supply post safety inspections [5] - The European shipping index continues to decline, reflecting a pessimistic market outlook, with previous price increases in the US market not sustaining, leading to downward pressure on European rates [5] - Analysts suggest a cautious approach to trading strategies, recommending short positions on high prices while acknowledging limited downward space for future contracts [5]

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 30 日） 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：目前豆粕交易逻辑并未改变，来自于原料大豆进口成本的变化，令豆粕期价跟随外盘美豆波动 节奏。在国内油厂远期买船依旧谨慎的背景下，下游市场对远期供应收紧的预期支撑了采购需求。近期油 厂开工率持续攀升，豆粕提货量高位回落，油厂豆粕库存连续 8 周缓慢回升，但仍处于偏低水平。短期而 言，上下库存均在增加，对豆粕价格构成一定压力。令豆粕期价或转为区间震荡运行。 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收 ...

商品期货开盘，多晶硅、工业硅主力合约涨超3%，对二甲苯涨超2%，PTA、纯碱、焦煤、焦炭、碳酸 锂、烧碱涨超1%。原油、沪银、沪金、燃料油跌超1%。 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Performance - On June 27, the domestic commodity futures market saw more gains than losses, with polysilicon leading with over a 3% increase, followed by焦煤 and industrial silicon with over 4% gains [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1377.97 points, up 5.01 points or 0.36% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1910.45 points, up 6.95 points or 0.37% [1] Group 2: Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - Polysilicon surged over 6% on June 27, driven by positive market sentiment and news of production cuts from major manufacturers in Xinjiang, impacting daily output by approximately 1500 to 1700 tons [2] - Industrial silicon also experienced a price rebound, closing above 8000 yuan per ton, but faces potential supply increases due to the resumption of production in the southwestern region [3] Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke continued their upward trend, with coking coal reaching a new high in over a month, supported by improved supply-demand dynamics due to production cuts amid safety inspections [3] - Despite the rebound, the overall supply-demand balance for coking coal and coke remains tilted towards oversupply, limiting the potential for further price increases [3] Group 4: Oil and Gold Market Trends - SC crude oil contracts fell for the fourth consecutive day, with a decline of 1.37%, influenced by improved market risk appetite and a weaker dollar [4] - Gold prices also decreased, with the Shanghai gold main contract dropping by 0.87%, although expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve provide some support [5]

国内 商品期货夜盘开盘涨跌不一，沪金跌1.12%。沪银跌1.07%，沪铜跌0.28%，铁矿涨0.63%，焦煤涨 1.56%， 原油跌0.72%。 ...

商品期货收盘，多晶硅主力合约涨超6%，焦煤、工业硅涨超4%，碳酸锂涨超3%，焦炭、集运欧线、20 号胶、纯碱涨超2%。原油跌超1%。 ...

智通财经6月25日电，国内商品期货收盘涨跌不一，尿素、红枣涨超2%，硅铁、锰硅、工业硅、焦炭、 沪铅涨超1%，跌幅方面，原油跌超8%，燃料油跌近6%，集运欧线跌超3%，液化气、菜粕、纸浆跌超 2%。 国内商品期货收盘涨跌不一 原油跌超8% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weakly oscillatory [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Trends**: The 2509 contract of Shanghai rubber futures showed a weakly oscillatory trend in the night session on Tuesday, with the futures price slightly down 0.07% to 13765 yuan/ton, and is expected to maintain this trend on Wednesday [5] - **Core Logic**: As geopolitical factors weaken, the common positive effects on energy and chemical commodity futures decline, and the negative factors of the weak supply - demand structure in the rubber market re - dominate. Currently, the supply side is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and high monthly output pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed down, and terminal demand has entered the off - season [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Trends**: The 2508 contract of synthetic rubber futures showed a weakly oscillatory trend in the night session on Tuesday, with the futures price down 1.12% to 11065 yuan/ton, and is expected to maintain this trend on Wednesday [7] - **Core Logic**: Due to comments from former US President Trump indicating the end of the conflict between Iran and Israel, and subsequent news of an official cease - fire, the trading of geopolitical logic in the market weakened. The sharp correction of domestic and international crude oil futures prices dragged down the synthetic rubber futures [7]