摘要今日周一(1月12日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于1031元/克附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报 1024.21元/克，涨幅1.25%，最高上探至1031.81元/克，最低触及1011.22元/克。目前来看，国际黄金短 线偏向看涨走势。 今日周一(1月12日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于1031元/克附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报1024.21 元/克，涨幅1.25%，最高上探至1031.81元/克，最低触及1011.22元/克。目前来看，国际黄金短线偏向看 涨走势。 【要闻速递】 美国总统特朗普上周日宣布，委内瑞拉将停止向古巴输送任何石油或资金，并暗示古巴应尽快与华盛顿 达成协议，否则将面临"零石油、零资金"的制裁。此言引发古巴领导层强烈反击。 美国情报机构评估显示，古巴农业、旅游业等关键部门受严重影响，失去委内瑞拉支持将使迪亚斯-卡 内尔执政更艰难，但未明确支持"古巴即将垮台"的预测。 【最新黄金行情解析】 黄金早间开盘即强势拉升，再度刷新历史新高，价格直逼4600一线。当前多头行情主要由两大核心因素 驱动：其一，非农数据不及预期——12月非农就业表现疲软，市场对美联储降息的预期升温，吸引资金 持续涌入 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - bull and slow - bull pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated, forming a triple resonance of "policy support, capital escort, and industry drive" [3][11] - Precious metals are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend, with the price centers of silver and platinum likely to rise steadily [2][19] - The price of copper is affected by market sentiment in the short term, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit [3][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chief Comment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will improve the long - term capital investment system, enhance service for science and technology innovation enterprises, and strengthen regulatory law enforcement [1] - The US may lift additional sanctions on Venezuela to promote oil exports [1] Key Varieties - **Precious Metals**: The long - term upward trend is expected to continue. Gold is supported by factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit and central bank gold purchases. Silver and platinum are also driven by supply - demand gaps in addition to macro factors [2] - **Stock Index**: The long - bull and slow - bull pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated. Supply - side reform will push up commodity prices and drive up resource - based stocks. Overseas funds are expected to flow back [3] - **Copper**: The supply of concentrates is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit. The short - term price is affected by market sentiment [3] Variety Views | Variety | Bias | | --- | --- | | Stock Index (IH) | Bullish | | Stock Index (IF) | Bullish | | Stock Index (IC) | Bullish | | Stock Index (IM) | Bullish | | Treasury Bond (TF) | Bullish | | Treasury Bond (TS) | Bullish | | Crude Oil | Bearish | | Methanol | Bearish | | Rubber | Bullish | | Rebar | Bullish | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Bullish | | Iron Ore | Bullish | | Coking Coal | Bullish | | Coke | Bullish | | Silicomanganese | Bullish | | Ferrosilicon | Bullish | | Gold | Bullish | | Silver | Bullish | | Copper | Bullish | | Aluminum | Bullish | | Lithium Carbonate | Bullish | | Cotton | Bullish | | Sugar | Bullish | | Apple | Bearish | | Corn | Bullish | | Container Shipping to Europe | Bearish | [5] Main News Concerns on the Day - **International News**: The Fed's January 2026 interest - rate cut expectation has completely disappeared. The US non - farm payrolls in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than expected [6] - **Domestic News**: The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal and financial coordination [7] - **Industry News**: Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled, and the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be adjusted [8] Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.65%, the European STOXX 50 rose 1.39%, and the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.24% from January 8th to January 9th [10] Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: The long - bull and slow - bull pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated. Treasury bond futures are generally weak due to the strong market risk appetite [11][12][13] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors. Methanol is mainly affected by Iranian supply. The upward momentum of polyolefins may slow down after continuous rebounds [14][15][17] - **Metals**: Precious metals are expected to rise in the long term. Copper prices are affected by market sentiment in the short term. Aluminum prices are affected by macro factors and downstream demand [19][20][22] - **Black Metals**: The short - term trend of coking coal and coke is expected to be strong. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate slightly upward [25][26] - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal prices are under pressure. Palm oil prices are affected by production concerns. Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [28][29][30] - **Shipping Index**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe may enter a downward channel in mid - January [32]

摘要今日周一(1月12日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1025.66元/克，较前一交易日上涨13.99美元，涨 幅1.38%，日内强势冲高。当日开盘价为1011.66元/克，最高价为1031.87元/克，最低价为1011.28元/ 克。 今日周一(1月12日)亚盘时段，国际黄金最新报价为1025.66元/克，较前一交易日上涨13.99美元，涨幅 1.38%，日内强势冲高。当日开盘价为1011.66元/克，最高价为1031.87元/克，最低价为1011.28元/克。 【要闻速递】 本周五，美国最高法院将迎来"判决日"，可能就特朗普多数关税政策的合法性作出裁决。Polymarket交 易数据显示，市场认为支持特朗普关据《华尔街日报》报道，美国官员透露，特朗普定于周二听取应对 伊朗抗议活动的选项简报，显示其正考虑兑现多次威胁——就伊朗当局镇压示威者的行为对该政权实施 惩戒。 官员表示，特朗普将与高级行政官员召开会议讨论下一步行动，可能包括加强线上反政府信息传播、对 伊朗军事及民用目标部署秘密网络武器、追加制裁乃至军事打击。预计国务卿鲁比奥、防长赫格塞思、 参联会主席凯恩上将出席会议。由于审议尚处早期，特朗普暂不会做 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced a significant surge, driven by multiple factors, indicating its potential as a strong investment opportunity in the current economic climate [2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - International spot silver reached $79.819 per ounce (approximately 19.20 yuan per gram), with a daily increase of 4.11% [4]. - Domestic silver (T+D) prices hit 19,400 yuan per kilogram (19.40 yuan per gram), rising by 4.53% [4]. - The Shanghai Futures silver contract surged to 19,438 yuan per kilogram (19.44 yuan per gram), marking a 6.19% increase, leading the market [4]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased, leading to a weaker dollar and enhancing silver's appeal as a precious metal [4]. - Heightened global geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and Europe, have driven investors towards silver as a safe haven [4]. - A historical supply-demand gap in the silver market, with a reported deficit of 320 million ounces in 2025, particularly due to surging demand from the photovoltaic and new energy sectors, has provided strong fundamental support for silver prices [4]. - Speculative funds have significantly increased their positions in the futures market and silver ETFs, reflecting a surge in retail investor enthusiasm [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - For aggressive investors, it is advised to avoid blindly chasing prices and to consider entering positions when prices pull back to the range of 19.0-19.2 yuan per gram [3]. - Conservative investors are encouraged to adopt a dollar-cost averaging approach by investing in silver ETFs or physical silver bars monthly to smooth out costs and benefit from long-term industry growth [8]. - For consumers and collectors, it is recommended to purchase silver bars with S999 purity from reputable sources and to be cautious with silver jewelry due to high craftsmanship costs [8]. Group 4: Future Scenarios - Optimistic Scenario (40% probability): If interest rate cuts are implemented and geopolitical tensions persist, silver prices may challenge new highs above 20.5 yuan per gram [8]. - Volatile Scenario (50% probability): The most likely outcome is that silver prices will oscillate between 19.0 and 20.0 yuan per gram, digesting recent gains while awaiting new directional signals [8]. - Downward Scenario (10% probability): In the event of a significant macroeconomic shift, silver prices could retreat below 18 yuan per gram for a deeper correction [8].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals prices are rising significantly, with gold surpassing $4600 and silver reaching historical highs, driven by multiple factors including economic data and geopolitical tensions [3][5][12]. Group 1: Price Movements - Gold reached $4600 for the first time, gaining $280 in January [3][10]. - Silver broke through $83.9 per ounce, marking a nearly 5% daily increase and setting a new historical high [3][10]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - U.S. non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][12]. - Escalating tensions in Iran have heightened geopolitical risks, contributing to the demand for safe-haven assets like gold [5][12]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces legal challenges, which have led to a slight decline in the dollar [6][12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The annual commodity index rebalancing is expected to require the sale of approximately $5 billion in gold and silver, although this process will be completed soon [6][13]. - Analysts believe that the fundamental support for precious metals remains strong despite potential short-term risks [13]. - Silver's supply constraints are expected to keep prices elevated, with predictions that silver could exceed $100 per ounce [7][13]. Group 4: Future Projections - Analysts anticipate that gold prices could reach $5000 per ounce due to ongoing geopolitical and economic factors [7][13]. - The market expects the Federal Reserve to eventually lower interest rates, which would further support gold prices [14]. - Technical analysis indicates that gold is on an upward trend, with resistance levels identified between $4664 and $4766 [8][14].

来源：汇金网 周一亚洲时段，黄金价格（XAU/USD）一度升至约4600美元附近，刷新历史最高纪录。在全球不确定性加剧的背 景下，避险资金持续流入黄金市场，同时市场对美国年内降息的预期也为金价提供了重要支撑。 地缘政治风险是本轮金价上行的重要驱动因素。美国总统特朗普正在权衡针对伊朗的多种潜在军事选项，此前伊 朗国内发生致命抗议事件。相关不确定性显著推升市场风险厌恶情绪，强化了黄金作为传统避险资产的吸引力。 与此同时，欧洲地缘安全议题同样引发市场关注。英国和德国正讨论在格陵兰地区加强军事存在，以显示其对北 极安全问题的重视。 多重地缘政治变量交织，使全球市场避险情绪维持在高位。美联储政策预期提供额外支撑：美国最新公布的就业 数据表现分化，也进一步增强了市场对美联储未来降息的押注。 数据显示，12月非农就业人数仅增加5万人，低于市场预期；失业率则小幅回落至4.4%。就业增长放缓，使投资 者认为货币政策存在进一步转向宽松的空间。在低利率环境下，持有无息资产的机会成本下降，这通常对黄金价 格构成利好。 市场接下来将重点关注即将公布的美国CPI通胀数据，以判断通胀回落是否为降息创造更明确的条件。 从日线结构来看，黄金价 ...

Group 1 - China Hong Kong (03788) shares rose over 11%, reaching a price of 4.28 HKD with a trading volume of 7.5463 million HKD [1] - The company announced the completion of the first phase of the pre-feasibility study for the Cygnet Gold Mine project and an update on the final feasibility study for the Mt Bundy Gold Mine project, resulting in a 53.1% increase in combined ore reserves to 2.62 million ounces [1] - The JORC gold resource increased to 5.54 million ounces following an independent assessment by SRK China [1] Group 2 - Spot gold and COMEX gold futures both surpassed 4600 USD per ounce, setting a new historical high, driven by rising geopolitical risks and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The poor non-farm payroll data from the previous Friday has heightened market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1]

智通财经APP获悉，中国罕王(03788)涨超11%，截至发稿，涨11.46%，报4.28港元，成交额754.63万港 元。 值得一提的是，周一早盘，现货黄金及COMEX黄金期货盘中均突破4600美元/盎司，再创历史新高。据 悉，这一涨势得益于地缘政治风险上升导致避险需求增加，同时，上周五糟糕的非农就业数据也增强了 市场对美联储降息的预期。 消息面上，中国罕王发布公告称，随着Cygnet金矿项目的第一阶段预可行性研究完成以及Mt Bundy金矿 项目的最终可行性研究更新，经SRK中国的独立专家依据上市规则进行评估，合并矿石储量增加了 53.1%，达到262万盎司，且JORC黄金资源量增至554万盎司。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that multiple factors, including the expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran, have driven gold prices to a historic high, surpassing $4,580 per ounce [1][3] - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll report indicated that job growth was below market expectations, reinforcing the market's anticipation of continued interest rate cuts to support the economy, which is beneficial for non-yielding assets like gold [1][3] - As of the latest update, spot gold prices increased by 1.7% to $4,585.26 per ounce, while silver prices rose by 3.80% to $83.025 per ounce, continuing a strong upward trend of nearly 10% from the previous week [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has already implemented three interest rate cuts in the second half of last year, and the market is currently pricing in at least two more cuts this year, which is a favorable condition for gold [3] - The deadly protests in Iran have heightened the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets, with potential risks of regime change adding uncertainty to the geopolitical landscape and the international oil market [3] - Several asset management firms have expressed a strong long-term investment outlook for gold, choosing to maintain their positions rather than rushing to take profits amid the favorable conditions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a strong rebound last week, recovering most of the previous week's losses, with bullish sentiment re-emerging and prices stabilizing above the 5-10 week moving averages, indicating a positive outlook for future price increases [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold prices opened the week at $4,346.46 per ounce, reached a low of $4,344.06, and then surged above the $4,400 mark, ultimately hitting a weekly high of $4,516.88 before closing at $4,509.95. The weekly price fluctuation was $172.82, with a closing increase of $181.6, representing a 4.18% rise compared to the previous week's closing price of $4,328.35 [3][5]. Influencing Factors - The rise in gold prices was influenced by geopolitical risks in Venezuela, despite some resistance from the CME Group's third margin increase for precious metal futures and market expectations of negative non-farm payroll data. Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical tensions and calls for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve contributed to the bullish sentiment [3][5]. - Central banks in Asia have continued to increase their gold holdings for the 14th consecutive month, further supporting the bullish outlook for gold [3]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains strong, with expectations of continued bullish momentum. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice or more later this year, which, along with rising fiscal debt, could push gold prices towards the $5,000 mark or higher [5][7]. - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices maintain their upward trajectory, there is potential for a significant bull market, with projections suggesting prices could reach between $5,500 and $6,000 [7][8]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices have shown strong performance, recovering from previous declines and reducing bearish patterns. If this trend continues, it could lead to a new bull market with over 30% gains [7]. - Weekly analysis shows that gold prices have stabilized above the 5-10 week moving averages, indicating increased bullish potential and the possibility of reaching new historical highs [8]. - Daily charts indicate that gold is maintaining its position above short-term moving averages, with bullish signals persisting, suggesting a continued upward trend [10].