Group 1 - The central bank announced a significant increase in the scale of reverse repos, with a planned operation of 1 trillion yuan (approximately 100 billion) on February 13, aimed at maintaining ample liquidity in the banking system [1] - The operation includes a 6-month reverse repo, which is a continuation of the previous month's operations, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased scale for this term [1] - In February, the total net injection through reverse repos is 600 billion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan compared to the previous month, indicating a sustained effort by the central bank to inject medium-term liquidity into the market for nine consecutive months [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the central bank's actions signal a commitment to maintaining liquidity and financial market stability, with expectations for further operations, including MLF, around February 25 [2] - The combination of reverse repos and MLF is seen as a continuation of the moderately loose monetary policy, reflecting the central bank's strategy to ensure sufficient liquidity in the market [2] - The increase in reverse repo scale in February suggests a reduced likelihood of a reserve requirement ratio cut in the near term [2]

2月5日，欧洲中央银行召开货币政策会议，决定将欧元区存款机制利率、主要再融资利率和边际借贷利 率三大关键利率分别维持在2.00%、2.15%、2.40%不变，这是欧洲央行自2025年7月以来连续第五次按 兵不动。欧洲央行当天发布的政策声明表示，欧洲央行的政策目标仍是确保欧元区中期通胀目标稳定在 2%。 远东点评： 2月5日，欧洲中央银行召开货币政策会议，决定将欧元区存款机制利率、主要再融资利率和边际借贷利 率三大关键利率分别维持在2.00%、2.15%、2.40%不变，这是欧洲央行自2025年7月以来连续第五次按 兵不动。欧洲央行当天发布的政策声明表示，欧洲央行的政策目标仍是确保欧元区中期通胀目标稳定在 2%。 远东点评： 欧洲央行此次维持利率不变的决策符合市场预期。当前欧元区通胀水平在能源价格波动影响下明显走 低，1月通胀率由去年12月的2.0%下降至1.7%，达到2024年9月以来最低水平，首次跌破2%的中期目 标；核心通胀率降至2.2%，创下2021年10月以来新低；服务业通胀率放缓至3.2%，整体通胀走势仍符 合央行的中期判断。另一方面，在全球贸易政策存在高度不确定性、地缘政治紧张局势持续的环境下， ...

Core Viewpoint - The 10-year government bond yield has broken through the 1.8% to 1.9% range due to pre-holiday positioning, but further declines require additional positive factors to drive the market [1][5]. Monetary Policy - The central bank's report on monetary policy execution for Q4 2025 indicates a more optimistic view on the economic fundamentals and inflation compared to the previous quarter [1]. - The central bank emphasizes the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, to maintain ample liquidity and relatively loose financing conditions [1][3]. - The central bank is expected to utilize tools like MLF, reverse repos, and government bond transactions to achieve liquidity supply, with a general expectation of one interest rate cut within the year [1][3]. Inflation and Economic Outlook - January's inflation data shows a PPI increase of 0.4%, exceeding expectations, while CPI rose by only 0.2%, indicating weak consumer confidence [4]. - The expectation is for a "moderate recovery" in inflation supported by policy, although short-term inflation expectations are unlikely to be invalidated [4]. Market Dynamics - The bond market is expected to transition from a unilateral trend to a phase of range-bound fluctuations due to multiple factors, including economic recovery, moderately loose monetary policy, and increased supply pressure in the bond market [5]. - The 10-year government bond yield has slightly increased to the 1.8% to 1.9% range, with the central bank's bond purchase scale increasing by 50 to 100 billion yuan, reflecting its role in managing yield fluctuations [3][5]. - The yield curve is anticipated to remain steep, with the spread between 30-year and 10-year bonds maintained at a high level of 40 to 50 basis points [5].

Group 1 - The central bank conducted a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a six-month term to maintain liquidity in the banking system, marking a continuation of its supportive monetary policy stance [1] - In February, the central bank increased the scale of the six-month reverse repurchase operation by 200 billion yuan compared to the previous month, indicating a proactive approach to ensure sufficient liquidity [1] - The central bank has been consistently increasing the scale of reverse repurchase operations for six consecutive months, reflecting a commitment to support economic recovery and stabilize the financial market [1] Group 2 - The central bank is expected to utilize both reverse repurchase and medium-term lending facility (MLF) tools to inject liquidity into the market, maintaining an "appropriately loose" monetary policy in 2026 [2] - The increase in net reverse repurchase operations in February suggests a reduced likelihood of a reserve requirement ratio cut in the near term, as the monetary policy enters an observation phase following structural policy measures introduced in January [2]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, with a fixed quantity and multi-price bidding method, set for February 13, 2026, with a term of 6 months [1] - The PBOC will achieve a net liquidity injection of 500 billion yuan due to the maturity of a 6-month reverse repo in February, alongside an additional 800 billion yuan 3-month reverse repo operation conducted on February 4, leading to a total net liquidity injection of 600 billion yuan for the month [1] - This marks the ninth consecutive month that the PBOC has injected medium-term liquidity into the market through reverse repos, reflecting a continuation of the "moderately accommodative" monetary policy stance [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's actions through reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations have effectively maintained market liquidity and improved the maturity structure of liquidity, ensuring stability in the financial market at the year's end [2] - It is anticipated that the PBOC will conduct an MLF operation around February 25, likely maintaining or slightly increasing the amount injected [2]

值得注意的是，这是央行连续第9个月开展买断式逆回购加量续作，且净投规模较上月增加3000亿。与 此前数据相比，本次央行买断式逆回购累计净投放量为三个月来最高，2025年12月、2026年1月买断式 逆回购分别净投放为2000亿元、3000亿元。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，2月还有3000亿MLF到期，央行也可能等量或小幅加量续作。总体 上看，2月央行会综合运用买断式逆回购、MLF两项政策工具，持续向市场注入中期流动性。这是2026 年货币政策延续"适度宽松"基调，保持流动性充裕的具体体现。 鉴于央行通过买断式逆回购和MLF操作，连续多月向市场注入中短期流动性，有力地维护市场流动性 充裕，保障岁末年初金融市场平稳运行，并进一步改善市场流动性的期限结构。招联首席研究员董希淼 预计，2月25日左右，央行还将开展MLF操作，预计仍然等量或加量续作。 （观察者网综合中国人民银行网站、智通财经等） （原标题：央行开展10000亿元买断式逆回购操作，加量规模5000亿） 据中国人民银行网站2月12日消息，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2026年2月13日，中国人民银行将以固 定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展1000 ...

在因短暂的政府部分停摆而延期公布之后，美国1月消费者价格指数（CPI）将于今晚21:30出炉。 尽管发布时间较原计划推迟，但多位经济学家认为，此次延后对数据本身的影响有限，这份通胀报告仍将为判断2026年美国通胀路径和货币政策环境提供重 要参考。 总体而言，今晚的数据更可能强化"通胀受控但难以快速回落"的判断。通胀水平虽仍高于目标，但并未显著偏离美联储的可接受区间。在这一背景下，市场 对长期通胀预期依然相对稳定，资产定价更多取决于对通胀结构和中期趋势的判断，而非单一一份CPI数据的短期波动。 经济学家预计，1月CPI环比上涨0.3%，与去年12月持平；同比增速预计回落至2.5%左右，也有部分预测认为仍维持在2.6%附近。剔除食品和能源的核心CPI 环比同样预计上升0.3%，高于12月的0.2%；同比增速预计为2.5%，较此前的2.6%小幅回落。 这意味着，通胀并未重新加速，但降温过程明显放缓。价格压力仍然存在，通胀水平持续高于美联储2%的目标区间。法国Natixis银行首席经济学家克里斯 托弗·霍奇（Christopher Hodge）指出， 美联储正处在一个需要接受"通胀缓慢回落而非迅速回归目标"的阶段，其 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - In the medium to long term, the policy's supportive attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged. The strategy is to buy on dips. For the bond market, it is expected to be in a strong and volatile trend. For precious metals, they are in a high - level volatile pattern, and the market focus has shifted to the upcoming US CPI data. For various commodities, their price trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and policy impacts, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each commodity [4][7][9]. Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Category Index - **Market Information**: On February 13, the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations; the European Central Bank Executive Committee will expand the scope of application of the euro back - up financing mechanism; many car companies disclosed their solid - state battery technology paths and industrial plans; some companies made progress in 3D printing technology and PCB production [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Presented the basis annualized ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods [3]. - **Strategy View**: Due to the intensifying divergence in US monetary policy expectations, the risk appetite of the capital market is suppressed, and the US stocks and precious metals are highly volatile. Domestically, the liquidity is tightened seasonally approaching the Spring Festival. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On February 13, the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations, with an incremental scale of 50 billion yuan compared to the maturity amount. In 2025, commercial banks' net profit was 2.4 trillion yuan, and the average capital profit rate and average asset profit rate were 7.78% and 0.60% respectively. The central bank's net injection on Thursday was 44.8 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy View**: The central bank emphasizes the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, and the capital market is expected to remain loose. The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and the bond market is expected to be in a strong and volatile trend [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: On Thursday, precious metals tumbled. The decline was due to the decline of US technology stocks, investors' forced liquidation, and profit - taking. The US initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims data were released, and the US existing home sales in January decreased by 8.4% month - on - month [8]. - **Strategy View**: Although short - term monetary policy expectations suppress precious metals, they are still in a high - level volatile pattern. The market is waiting for the US CPI data. The strategy is to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 950 - 1100 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 18500 - 21000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9][10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Before the domestic long holiday, funds were cautious. Overnight silver and US stocks declined, and copper prices fell after rising. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased [12][13]. - **Strategy View**: Although the market sentiment is affected by the decline of precious metals, the strong manufacturing in Europe and the US provides support. The copper price is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern during the long holiday, with reference ranges of 99000 - 103000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 12500 - 13200 US dollars/ton for LME copper [14]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The Mozambique aluminum smelter is expected to shut down for maintenance in March. Aluminum prices rose and then fell. The domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased [15]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic demand is weak, but the low LME inventory and high US aluminum spot premium support the price. The aluminum price is expected to be in a volatile and upward trend during the long holiday, with reference ranges of 23200 - 23600 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3050 - 3140 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [16]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc index rose slightly. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory started to accumulate, and the downstream enterprise operation was average [17]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc mine inventory accumulation slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC stabilized. Although the domestic zinc industry is weak, the strong US PMI may drive the zinc price to rise, and there is still a risk of price fluctuations during the Spring Festival [17][18]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead index fell slightly. The lead ingot social inventory increased, and the waste battery inventory was higher than that in 2025 [19]. - **Strategy View**: The lead ore inventory is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee is low. The lead price is near the lower edge of the long - term shock range, and whether it can stabilize depends on the post - holiday restocking willingness of downstream enterprises [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price fluctuated. The spot premium of nickel was stable, and the nickel ore price was stable. The price of nickel iron rose slightly [20]. - **Strategy View**: After the second decline of precious metals and risk assets, there is a short - term rebound demand, but the nickel price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern due to fundamental pressure. The approved nickel ore production quota has little impact on the price, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price fluctuated. The smelter's production in Yunnan was stable, and that in Jiangxi was low due to the shortage of waste tin raw materials. The downstream demand was weak [21]. - **Strategy View**: The tin price may rebound with the stabilization of precious metals, but it is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short term due to the marginal relaxation of supply - demand and the increase in inventory. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton for the domestic main contract and 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [23]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The lithium carbonate spot index rose, and the futures price fell slightly. The inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The supply has decreased, and the demand is expected to be strong. The short - term supply - demand pattern is tight. The upstream has more bargaining power after the holiday. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 143,000 - 157,000 yuan/ton [25]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell slightly, and the trading volume decreased. The spot price in Shandong was at a discount to the main contract [26]. - **Strategy View**: There is a strike in the Guinea bauxite mine area, and the alumina smelting capacity is in excess. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range of 2750 - 3000 yuan/ton for the main contract AO2605 [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure is controllable, and the demand is weak before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the reference range of 13,500 - 14,500 yuan/ton for the main contract [29]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price rebounded slightly, and the trading volume increased. The inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy View**: Although the demand is average, the price is supported by supply - side disturbances and seasonal raw material shortages [31]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The rebar inventory started to accumulate, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased slightly [33]. - **Strategy View**: The carbon emission trading policy may increase the cost of the steel industry. The steel market is in a bottom - game stage, and it is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to inventory inflection points and policy changes [35]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract fell slightly. The overseas iron ore shipment decreased, and the port inventory decreased [36]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron water production is in a recovery trend. The ore price is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern before the festival. Attention should be paid to overseas shipments and domestic terminal demand after the festival [37]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fell slightly. The spot prices of coking coal and coke were at a premium to the futures prices [38]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas coal - related disturbances have a positive impact on sentiment, but the short - term upward drive of coking coal is not strong. The downstream replenishment is coming to an end, and there is a risk of price correction after the festival. Coking coal may have a better performance from June to October [40][42]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass main contract fell. The inventory increased, and the downstream demand was weak [44]. - **Strategy View**: The glass market is expected to be in a volatile and sorted pattern, with the reference range of 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton for the main contract [45]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash main contract fell. The inventory increased, and the demand for heavy soda ash was weak [46]. - **Strategy View**: The soda ash market is in a weak and stable volatile pattern, with the reference range of 1140 - 1230 yuan/ton for the main contract [46]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell. The spot prices were at a premium to the futures prices [47]. - **Strategy View**: The long - term commodity market is expected to be bullish, but the short - term market sentiment is affected by precious metals. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is loose, and that of ferrosilicon is balanced. Attention should be paid to the cost push of manganese ore and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [48][49]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon futures price fell. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak [50]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial silicon market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in February. The price is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [51]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon futures price fell. The supply decreased, and the inventory is expected to decrease slightly [52]. - **Strategy View**: The polysilicon market is expected to be in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand and spot prices [53]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated with the commodity market. The tire enterprise operating rate decreased, and the inventory increased [56][57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to reduce risks before the Spring Festival, trade short - term on the disk, and hold a hedging position during the festival [58]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil futures price rose slightly. The US crude oil commercial inventory increased, and the diesel and fuel oil inventories decreased [59]. - **Strategy View**: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [61]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol spot price changed slightly, and the futures price decreased [62]. - **Strategy View**: Methanol has priced in many negative factors. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions and wait and see in the short term [63]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea spot price was stable, and the futures price rose [64]. - **Strategy View**: The import window has opened, and the fundamental outlook is negative. It is recommended to short - sell [65]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy View**: The PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term price is supported by electricity price expectations and export rush, and attention should be paid to capacity and operating rate changes [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The ethylene glycol market needs to reduce production to improve the supply - demand pattern. There is a risk of price rebound due to geopolitical factors and coal price rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA market is in the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to be stable at a high level, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips after the Spring Festival [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand from downstream PTA was weak. The inventory increased [72]. - **Strategy View**: The p - xylene market is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. The valuation is expected to rise after the Spring Festival, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips following the crude oil price [73][74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price fluctuated. The trading volume decreased approaching the Spring Festival [76]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term pig price is under pressure due to large supply and high inventory. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies. The long - term price may be supported by seasonal factors and demand recovery [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price was stable in most markets approaching the Spring Festival [78]. - **Strategy View**: The egg market is in the inventory - accumulation period. The short - term price is under pressure, and it is recommended to short - sell. The long - term price trend depends on capacity reduction [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the rapeseed meal price rose. The global soybean supply and demand were slightly adjusted in the USDA report [80]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term protein meal price is expected to be in a volatile pattern due to the increase in US soybean procurement expectations and the rise in import costs [81]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The domestic soybean oil price rose, the palm oil price fell, and the rapeseed oil price was stable. The global palm oil supply and demand data were released [82][83]. - **Strategy View**: The consumption growth of oils and fats is greater than the production growth this year. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back to go long [84]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The domestic sugar price fell. The domestic and foreign sugar production and sales data were released [85][86]. - **Strategy View**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest is completed. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see [87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The domestic cotton price rose. The domestic and foreign cotton supply and demand data were released in the USDA report [88][89]. - **Strategy View**: The USDA report is neutral. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower edge of the shock range after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate and the new cotton target price policy [90].

1. Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: February 13, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental situation is weak, with the January PMI falling more than seasonally. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the economic indicators are expected to decline further. However, structural interest rate cuts have been implemented, and the central bank's bond - buying scale is low, so the market's expectation of monetary easing is not strong. The planned issuance of local bonds in the first quarter is high, causing concerns about supply pressure [11]. - The current yield level of 10 - year treasury bonds around 1.8% does not fully price in the potential easing space. There is support from allocation demand at the beginning of the year, and the central bank is actively maintaining the money market, so the upside space of interest rates is limited. In February, the bond market is in a situation of mixed long - and short - term factors and may continue to fluctuate within a range [11][12]. - Before the Spring Festival, the central bank will actively maintain the cross - festival money market, and the supply pressure of government bonds is controllable, so the market environment is relatively warm. After the Spring Festival, the supply pressure will increase. Although the return of cash will supplement liquidity, the central bank usually withdraws funds, which may be unfavorable for short - term bonds. The market is more likely to bet on holiday economic data and important meetings and policies in March, and long - term bonds may be more advantageous. This week is the last trading week before the Spring Festival, trading is expected to be light, and short - term bonds should have stronger support [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions on the Day**: The money market improved slightly but remained in a tight balance. Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board, with a larger decline in long - term interest rates. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 was reported at 1.774%, a decrease of 1.2bp [9]. - **Money Market**: The inter - bank money market improved marginally but remained in a tight balance. The net reverse repurchase injection in the open market was 448 billion yuan. The inter - bank money sentiment index was high in the morning and slightly declined in the afternoon. The overnight DR in the inter - bank deposit market fluctuated narrowly around 1.37%, the 7 - day funds rate fell about 1.3bp to around 1.53%, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.6% [10] 3.2 Industry News - The People's Bank of China released the "Fourth - Quarter 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report" on February 10. The report proposed that the central bank will conduct counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments, support the good start of the "15th Five - Year Plan", and continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. It also introduced three ways of coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy [13]. - Japanese Prime Minister Takamachi Sanae said she is open to dialogue with China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian responded that such "dialogue" is unacceptable [13]. - US President Trump said he is considering sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East in case the negotiation with Iran fails. The US and Iran restarted negotiations in Oman last Friday, and the second - round negotiation is expected to be held next week [14]. - Before the Spring Festival, the competition among banks for deposits has heated up again. Small and medium - sized banks mainly attract customers by raising the interest rates of specific deposit products, while large banks use methods such as giving points and reward vouchers. Multiple institutions and industry insiders believe that the matured time - deposit funds in 2026 are likely to circulate within the banking system and flow more to low - risk assets such as bank wealth management, money market funds, and insurance [14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data of treasury bond futures on February 12, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change percentage, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest of various contracts [6] - **Money Market**: The report includes information such as the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, change in the weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and change in the pledged repurchase rate of inter - bank deposits [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [35]

Group 1 - The Trump administration has officially rescinded the 2009 "greenhouse gas endangerment finding" by the Environmental Protection Agency, which is expected to save $1.3 trillion in regulatory costs and help lower car prices [1] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a resolution to terminate punitive tariffs on Canadian goods, while the Senate blocked a funding bill for the Department of Homeland Security, risking a potential government shutdown [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary agreed to transfer the investigation authority over Federal Reserve Chairman Powell from the Justice Department to the Senate Banking Committee, aiming to facilitate the nomination of a new Fed chair [2] Group 2 - The Reserve Bank of Australia Chairman warned that an inflation rate above 3% is unacceptable and indicated readiness to raise interest rates again if inflation remains stubborn [3] - The UK economy is projected to grow by 1.3% in 2025, with a quarterly GDP growth of only 0.1% in Q4 2025, which is below expectations [3] - The Turkish central bank will maintain a tight monetary policy to ensure inflation decreases, with expectations for inflation to fall between 15% and 21% by the end of 2026 [3] Group 3 - U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.34% to 49,451.98 points, the S&P 500 down 1.57% to 6,832.76 points, and the Nasdaq down 2.03% to 22,597.15 points [4] - International precious metal futures saw significant declines, with COMEX gold futures down 3.08% to $4,941.4 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 10.62% to $75.01 per ounce [5] - U.S. oil futures fell by 2.66% to $62.91 per barrel, while Brent oil futures dropped by 2.61% to $67.59 per barrel [5]