Economic Data Summary - In November, China's industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, while the service production index rose by 4.2%, and retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% [1] - From January to November, fixed asset investment in China decreased by 2.6%, with manufacturing investment up by 1.9% and real estate development investment down by 15.9% [1] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in China remained stable at 5.1% in November [1] US Employment and Inflation Data - In November, the US non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, exceeding market expectations of 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [1] - Average hourly earnings in November grew by 3.5% year-on-year, marking the slowest growth since May 2021 [1] - The US core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year in November, the slowest increase since early 2021, and the overall CPI increased by 2.7%, both below market expectations [1][2] Policy Measures in China - The Ministry of Commerce, the central bank, and financial regulators issued a notice to enhance collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption, proposing 11 specific measures [2] - Measures include encouraging the use of digital RMB smart contracts to improve consumption policies, promoting personal consumption loans, and exploring financial support for new business models [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials indicated that monetary policy is prepared for 2026, with expectations that the unemployment rate will drop to 4.5% by the end of 2025 [3] - The Fed's policy has shifted from mild tightening to neutral, with no immediate urgency for further rate cuts despite the recent employment and inflation data [3] Market Performance Overview - In the futures market, ICE Brent crude oil fell by 1.14% to $60.12, while COMEX gold rose by 0.93% to $4368.7 [26] - The US dollar index increased by 31.13 basis points, while the Chinese yuan appreciated by 199 basis points against the dollar [26] - In the stock market, the ChiNext index fell by 2.26%, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.28% [28] Bond Market Trends - In the bond market, short-term credit bonds declined while long-term bonds rose, with the 3Y AAA bond yield decreasing by 4 basis points [34] - US Treasury yields also experienced a downward trend, with 3Y, 5Y, and 20Y yields falling by 5 basis points [35]

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market has seen significant price increases in 2023, with gold and silver reaching historical highs, leading to a collective rise in A-share related stocks, particularly in the precious metals sector [1]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market Performance - The precious metals sector in A-shares consists of 12 stocks, with an average increase of over 90% year-to-date, and several stocks like Zhaojin Mining, Shengda Resources, and Western Gold have seen cumulative increases exceeding 100% [1]. - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached 1,313 tons in Q3 2023, with a total value of $146 billion, marking the highest quarterly demand on record [1]. - Investment demand for gold surged to 537 tons in Q3 2023, a 47% year-on-year increase, accounting for 55% of total net demand for the quarter [1]. Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Zhaojin Mining has experienced a cumulative increase of 247.61% this year, becoming the best-performing stock in the precious metals sector, with expectations of increased gold production in the next two years due to ongoing investments in the Watuokela gold mine [2]. - Hunan Gold, which specializes in gold and other non-ferrous metal mining and processing, reported a net profit of 1,028.8 million yuan for Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 54.28% [2]. - Hunan Gold's stock price increased from 15.86 yuan per share at the beginning of the year to 21.62 yuan per share by December 24, reflecting a year-to-date increase of approximately 36% [2]. - Hunan Silver, which focuses on silver and other non-ferrous metal products, reported a net profit of 158.6 million yuan for Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28.44% [2]. - Hunan Silver's stock price rose from 3.42 yuan per share at the start of the year to 6.75 yuan per share by December 24, indicating a year-to-date increase of about 98% [3].

Group 1 - The core factors driving the significant increase in silver prices this year include a persistent supply gap in the global silver market, concerns over physical supply due to U.S. tariff policies, and the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle which enhances market liquidity and risk appetite [1] - In late December, silver prices accelerated due to a surge in investment demand and tight short-term inventory, with global silver ETF holdings significantly increasing since October as institutions and high-net-worth individuals purchased and hoarded physical silver [1] - The current market structure shows backwardation in silver futures, indicating extreme tightness in near-term physical supply, with silver lease rates remaining high, reflecting low willingness to lend physical silver [1] Group 2 - In the short term, the silver market is expected to remain highly volatile due to increased delivery demand for COMEX silver futures and tight physical supply, which supports futures prices and amplifies market fluctuations [2] - The anticipated rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index and S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index in early next year may lead to selling pressure from passive management funds, with silver expected to be more affected than gold due to its smaller market size [2] Group 3 - In the medium term, silver prices are anchored by gold, with the overall upward trend in precious metals likely to continue amid a global rate-cutting cycle and rising geopolitical tensions [3] - Long-term demand for silver is supported by industrial applications, particularly in solar energy, electric vehicles, AI servers, and 5G communications, with silver demand from the solar industry rising from approximately 20% in 2022 to about 55% currently [3] - Traders are advised to consider silver as an enhanced allocation during gold's upward cycle, leveraging its high price elasticity and volatility for excess returns while managing positions to avoid forced exits due to short-term fluctuations [3]

2025年，地缘冲突的硝烟还未散去，世界变乱交织的形势依旧，保护主义与"逆全球化"的寒流时而加 剧，世界经济大船行进在风高浪急之中。然而，正是在这片晦明交织的图景中，一股源自历史深处、勃 兴于时代潮头的磅礴力量成为这一年最显著的印记。在前所未有的群体性崛起中，全球南方成长为世界 经济稳定增长的"新引擎"，中国则是全球南方当之无愧的"稳定器"。 大道不孤，众行致远。回顾2025年，全球南方并非被动应对困境，而是以团结铸就力量。中国作为全球 南方的天然一员，不仅提供了物质支撑，更传递了新发展理念，推动全球南方从"跟随者"转向"引领 者"。展望2026年，全球南方经济将在逆势、向新与团结的交汇中，书写崭新篇章。我们共同期待，一 个更加均衡、包容的世界经济格局，就此徐徐展开。 全球挑战中的南方韧性 2025年的世界经济笼罩在多重阴影之下。地缘政治博弈白热化，乌克兰危机延宕、其他地区冲突热点不 断，与气候变化、粮食能源安全危机相互叠加，制造了罕见的复合型压力。世界银行数据显示，全球仍 有8.17亿人处于极端贫困，其中60%集中在撒哈拉以南非洲。与此同时，全球治理的"西方支柱"出现动 摇。特朗普再次上台后，关闭了主导战后 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report is bullish on Europe, bearish on the US dollar, and expects the Japanese yen to appreciate [2][5][8]. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, it will be a year dominated by liquidity. Ample liquidity and loose monetary policies lead to the spill - over of US dollar liquidity, rising asset prices, but the problem of de - globalization remains unsolved, and the pressure of long - term stagflation intensifies [4]. - The US economy is in a weak recovery during the interest - rate cut cycle, with a significant increase in potential stagflation pressure. The eurozone economy has stabilized, and the euro will maintain an upward trend. The Japanese yen is expected to appreciate in 2026 [1][2][3]. - The Fed's aggressive interest - rate cut policy and the expansion of US dollar liquidity will be the most important trends in 2026. The US dollar index is expected to continue to weaken significantly, dropping to around 90, with a larger decline in the second half of the year. Commodities, especially precious metals and non - ferrous metals, will continue to rise [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 US: Accelerated Liquidity Injection and Hidden Stagflation Pressure 3.1.1 Labor Market: Accelerated Weakening Trend - In 2026, the US labor market will trend towards a significant weakening. The "inflection point" of the labor market has appeared, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise. The decline in the labor market is a gradual process, and the "atypical recession" of the labor market will continue. The problem of structural imbalance in the labor market caused by the expulsion of illegal immigrants may keep wage growth relatively high [14][16]. 3.1.2 Economic Recovery or Hidden Stagflation - In 2026, due to the mid - term elections, the Trump administration will maintain the current tariff level. US inflation is mainly driven by inflation inertia, wage growth expectations, and marginal liquidity. Liquidity injection is likely to be a neutral factor for inflation in 2026, and the overall inflation center in the US is expected to remain at around 3% year - on - year. The economy will experience a process of weakening and then slow recovery, and the real estate sector may be boosted [23][34]. 3.1.3 US Dollar: Continued Weakness - In 2026, the US dollar index will continue to weaken. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates rapidly, which will improve the liquidity within the system and relieve the government's debt pressure. Although inflation can remain relatively stable, the US dollar index will remain weak, and the real interest rate is expected to approach 0%. The Fed may face potential pressure to expand its balance sheet to maintain a relatively flat yield curve [37][45]. 3.2 Eurozone and Japan 3.2.1 Eurozone: Economic Strength and Currency Appreciation - The eurozone economy is in a continuous recovery state, with stable inflation and rising consumer and business confidence. Even if the Russia - Ukraine conflict reaches a cease - fire agreement, the EU will continue to expand its fiscal deficit. Fiscal policy is more important than monetary policy. The euro and European stocks performed strongly in 2025, and the current economic model of fiscal expansion and monetary stability is beneficial to the eurozone economy [46][58]. 3.2.2 Japan: Continued Appreciation of the Yen - Japan's economy is in a positive cycle, with rising GDP growth, inflation, consumer confidence, and corporate loan growth. The Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates. Although the expansion of fiscal deficit exerts downward pressure on the yen, the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hikes will lead to a rapid decline in the US - Japan interest - rate differential, which will cause the yen to appreciate. The expansion of US dollar liquidity is expected to offset the contraction of yen liquidity [61][83]. 3.3 Global Macroeconomy: From Loose to Ample Liquidity, from Simple to Complex Situation - In 2026, global market liquidity will shift from loose to ample, and asset prices will continue to rise. The weak US dollar will lead to the spill - over of US dollar liquidity and the rise of non - US assets. However, loose liquidity does not solve the problem of de - globalization, and more radical policies may be introduced in 2027. The Russia - Ukraine conflict is unlikely to end in the short term, and the risk premium of safe - haven assets will continue to exist. The influence of fiscal policy on the global market is increasing, which will lead to long - term and irreversible inflation [84][91]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations 3.4.1 Weak US Dollar as the Main Trend in 2026 - The Fed's aggressive interest - rate cut policy and the expansion of US dollar liquidity will cause the US dollar index to continue to weaken significantly in 2026, dropping to around 90, with a larger decline in the second half of the year [93]. 3.4.2 Obvious Opportunities in Commodities - The accelerated injection of liquidity and the potential increase in inflation pressure will boost commodities, especially precious metals and non - ferrous metals, which will continue to rise in 2026 [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market Outlook**: The current macro - economic data remains stable, but the recovery momentum needs strengthening. Monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Market risk preferences have increased, and different asset classes show various trends [6][9]. - **Asset - Specific Views**: - **Bonds**: Treasury futures are expected to face some pressure, and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. - **Equities**: Stock index futures are expected to have a gradually rising volatility center, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are expected to continue the upward trend. Investors can wait and see for now and look for long - entry opportunities [12][13]. - **Base Metals and Steel**: Most base metals and steel products show weak or volatile trends. Investors can take appropriate short - term trading strategies according to different market conditions, such as shorting at high levels or going long at low levels [14][15][17]. - **Energy**: Crude oil and fuel oil have different market situations. Crude oil may have long - entry opportunities near key price points, while fuel oil may have room for rebound. Both are currently in a wait - and - see situation [26][27][29]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. Some may be in a weak or strong position, and investors need to pay attention to supply - demand changes and policy impacts [62][70][73]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: Treasury futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.89%, 0.26%, 0.17%, and 0.07% respectively. The central bank conducted 59.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 76 billion yuan [5]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: With stable macro - data but weak recovery momentum, and low treasury yields, treasury futures are expected to face pressure, and investors should be cautious [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: Stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures changed by 0.12%, 0.22%, 0.04%, and - 0.15% respectively [8]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Despite weak corporate profit growth, low domestic asset valuations, sufficient economic resilience, and increased market sentiment suggest that the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to rise, and investors can go long at the right time [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold and silver main contracts rose by 1.34% and 1.43% respectively. The initial annualized quarterly rate of the US real GDP in Q3 was 4.3%, and the US durable goods orders in October decreased by 2.2% [11][12]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold - buying, and expected Fed rate cuts are favorable for precious metals, which are expected to continue rising. Investors can wait for long - entry opportunities [12][13]. Base Metals and Steel Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. Tangshan billet was priced at 2960 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar at 3180 - 3320 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3250 - 3270 yuan/ton [14]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Due to the long - term decline in real estate demand, approaching demand off - season, and supply - side factors, rebar prices may continue to oscillate weakly. Hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can short at high levels during rebounds [14][15]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: Iron ore futures oscillated. PB powder was priced at 788 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder at 670 yuan/ton [17]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: With falling iron - water output, increasing imports, and rising port inventories, the supply - demand pattern is weak. Futures may face resistance at previous highs. Investors can short at high levels [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: Coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. Since December, domestic coking coal production has decreased, and the third - round price cut for coke procurement has started [19]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: In the short term, the futures may continue to rebound. Investors can go long at low levels [19][20]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: Manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts changed by - 0.21% and 0.18% respectively. Manganese ore shipments decreased, and port inventories increased slightly. Ferroalloy production continued to decline [22]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Although the overall oversupply pressure persists, there may be long - entry opportunities at low levels after the expansion of spot losses [22][23]. Energy Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: INE crude oil opened high and closed low, blocked by the 20 - day moving average. Fund managers reduced net short positions, and the number of active oil and gas rigs decreased [24][25]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: There may be long - entry opportunities near the $60 mark for Brent crude. Currently, investors are advised to wait and see [26][27]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: Fuel oil rose significantly, closing above the 20 - day moving average. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased, but it is still much higher than the average [28]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Tight Asian spot supply and stable crude oil prices support fuel oil prices. It has large rebound potential, but investors are advised to wait and see [29][30]. Chemicals Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: PP and LLDPE markets showed weak trends. PP prices were 6050 - 6200 yuan/ton, and LLDPE prices dropped by 50 - 120 yuan/ton [31]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The polyolefin market is in a negative feedback stage, but the reduction in standard product supply may boost market sentiment. Investors are advised to wait and see [31][32]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: Synthetic rubber main contract rose by 0.90%. Raw material prices increased, supply was abundant, and demand was weak [33][34]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate [35]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: Natural rubber main contracts rose. Domestic supply decreased, and demand was weak. Inventory continued to accumulate [36]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate [37]. PVC - **Market Performance**: PVC main contract rose by 3.02%. Supply decreased slightly, demand weakened, and inventory decreased slightly [38][39]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Pay attention to supply - side changes [39]. Urea - **Market Performance**: Urea main contract rose by 1.24%. Daily output fluctuated slightly, demand may increase slightly, and inventory was lower than expected [40]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: The downward space is limited [41]. PX - **Market Performance**: PX2603 main contract rose by 1.84%. PXN spread adjusted, and supply - demand improved [42]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It may oscillate strongly in the short term. Investors can participate at low levels and be vigilant about crude oil and macro - policy changes [43]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PTA2605 main contract rose by 2.38%. Supply decreased, demand was stable, and processing fees declined [44]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It may have upward momentum. Investors can participate at low levels following cost changes [44]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: Ethylene glycol main contract fell by 3.02%. Supply increased, inventory accumulated, and demand support weakened [45][46]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It may oscillate at the bottom. Investors can trade within the range and pay attention to inventory and supply changes [46]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: Short - fiber 2602 main contract rose by 1.32%. Supply decreased slightly, demand weakened, and cost drive increased [47]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It may oscillate following raw material prices. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost and policy changes [47]. Bottle - Grade PET - **Market Performance**: Bottle - grade PET 2603 main contract rose by 1.75%. Processing fees declined, supply decreased slightly, and export growth improved [48]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate following cost changes. Investors should control risks [48]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose by 5.67%. Supply was high, demand improved, and inventory decreased [49]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [49]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper main contract rose by 1.04%. Supply was tight, and demand had short - term pressure [50]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It will remain at a high level, but investors should be cautious about chasing the rise [50][51]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Shanghai aluminum main contract rose by 0.16%, and alumina main contract rose by 0.83%. Alumina supply was in surplus, and aluminum demand was average [52][53]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level [53][54]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc main contract rose by 0.39%. Supply decreased, demand was weak, and inventory increased [55]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It will oscillate and adjust [55][56]. Lead - **Market Performance**: Lead market situation is similar to zinc, with weak supply - demand and limited upward and downward space [57]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It will oscillate and adjust [57][58]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin main contract fell by 1.63%. Supply was tight, and demand had certain resilience [59]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly [59]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel main contract rose by 2.52%. Policy risks increased, supply was in surplus, and demand was weak [60]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Pay attention to Indonesian policies [60]. Agricultural Products Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts rose. Brazilian soybean planting was almost completed, and domestic oil - mill crushing was at a high level [61][62]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Soybean meal may have long - entry opportunities at low levels, and soybean oil may have upward potential after breaking through. Investors can consider long - entry opportunities in low - level call options [62]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose. Indonesian biodiesel policy and export data changed, and domestic inventory was at a medium level [63]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Investors are advised to wait and see [65]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed futures fell slightly. Domestic rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal imports changed, and inventory levels were different [66]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Investors are advised to wait and see [67]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Domestic cotton futures were strong, and overseas cotton rose. Xinjiang's cotton policy and supply - demand reports affected the market [68][70]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to be strong [70][71]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly, and overseas raw sugar rose. Domestic and overseas sugar production and import data changed [72][73]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: It will oscillate weakly [74]. Apples - **Market Performance**: Apple futures oscillated, and inventory decreased slightly. New - season production and quality declined [75][77]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Apple prices are expected to be strong [77][78]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average pig price rose slightly. Supply and demand factors such as sow inventory, planned slaughter, and consumption affected the market [79][80]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Investors are advised to wait and see and follow the slaughter rhythm and consumption changes [80]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg prices were stable. Egg production was high, and demand was weak [81][82]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Investors are advised to wait and see [83]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: Corn and corn starch futures fell. North - port inventory increased, and demand was slightly improved [84][85]. - **Analysis and Outlook**: Wait for the release of supply pressure. Corn starch may follow the corn market [86].

曾获得诺贝尔经济学奖的麻省理工学院经济学家达龙·阿西莫格鲁表示："我们正经历着一个极其动荡的时期。" 逆全球化中的物流企业： 在持续动荡中极力应对 对处于全球贸易链上的企业而言，特朗普2.0时代下的2025年并不容易。4月2日，美国宣布自4月5日起对所有进口商品征收10%统一关税，同时对超过75个 国家加征对等关税，部分关税时而实施，时而撤销，还毫无预警。此举彻底打破了数十年的全球贸易自由化格局，习惯了全球化供应链的企业，不得不重新 评估其采购、制造和仓储等战略。 ▲当地时间5月2日，受关税战影响，洛杉矶港和长滩港失去了以往的繁忙 图据视觉中国 在全球贸易供应链中扮演主要角色的制造业、物流企业以及仓储货运码头企业，都面临着前所未有的政策不确定性威胁。面临新的逆全球化贸易环境，企业 开始思考，应该如何做到供应商多元化、同时管理库存，以降低风险，在全球贸易不确定性面前保持韧性。 专门从事国际贸易救济的中伦律师事务所高级顾问李斯律师向红星新闻记者分析称，从一线法律和合规实践来看，今年特朗普2.0时代给供应链上的各个企 业带来的不确定性，体现在以下几个方面： 首先，不确定性更多来自关税政策的频繁调整。特朗普"对等/互 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The overall outlook for various futures markets is diverse. Some markets are expected to have upward trends, some to be in a weak or strong oscillation, and some are recommended for specific trading strategies such as waiting for opportunities or light - position participation [6] [7] [9]. Summary by Categories Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted 67.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 22, with a net withdrawal of 63.6 billion yuan. LPR remained unchanged for 7 consecutive months. Given the current situation, treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure [5]. - **Investment Strategy**: Remain cautious [6]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The CSRC will halve the delivery fees of stock index futures and treasury bond futures and the exercise (performance) fees of stock index options from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026. - **Investment Strategy**: The volatility center of the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold and silver main contracts rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", and the possible continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are all beneficial to precious metals. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for now and wait for opportunities to go long [9]. Steel and Iron - related Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. In the medium term, the price is mainly determined by industry supply and demand. The demand for rebar is in a downward trend year - on - year, and the market will enter the off - season. Although the supply pressure has eased, the inventory is higher than last year. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds and manage positions carefully [11]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures may face resistance near the previous high. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to shorting opportunities at high levels and manage positions carefully [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. The supply of coking coal decreased in December, and the procurement of downstream coking enterprises increased. The third - round price cut of coke spot procurement has started, and the demand from steel mills has weakened. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels and manage positions carefully [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts rose. The supply of manganese ore decreased, and the cost of ferroalloys increased. The demand for ferroalloys was weak, and the inventory continued to rise. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low levels after the expansion of spot losses [18]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened high and went high. The CFTC data showed that US funds reduced their net short positions, and the number of active oil and gas rigs in the US decreased. Barclays maintained its 2026 Brent crude price forecast. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities [19] [20]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly. The Asian spot fuel oil market was weak, but the on - shore inventory was relieved. The sudden tightness of Asian fuel oil supply and the stable trend of crude oil supported the fuel oil price. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities [22] [23]. Chemical Products - **Polyolefin**: On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou and the LLDPE market in Yuyao showed a downward trend. The supply pressure of standard products is expected to slow down slightly, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities [25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The price was supported by cost and demand in the short term, and attention should be paid to the changes in supply - side equipment and demand - side recovery. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillate [27] [29]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell. The market is expected to have a long - short game, and the rubber price may oscillate. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillate [30] [31]. - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell. The supply - demand imbalance continues, but the downward space may be limited. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to the changes on the supply side [32] [33]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. The daily output of urea is expected to fluctuate slightly, and the demand is expected to increase slightly. - **Market Outlook**: The downward space is limited [34] [35]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract rose. The PXN spread is at a neutral - to - high level, and the short - term profit is improving. The supply - demand pattern has improved, and the cost of crude oil has a short - term driving force. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities at low levels, be vigilant about crude oil changes, and pay attention to macro - policy changes [36] [37]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose. The supply load decreased, and the demand load remained stable. The processing fee decreased, and the inventory was low. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities following the cost side, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [38]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell. The supply pressure increased, the port inventory continued to rise, and the demand support weakened slightly. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider trading within the range and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [39] [40]. - **Short Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the short fiber 2602 main contract rose. The supply decreased but remained at a high level, the demand support weakened, and the cost - driving force increased. - **Investment Strategy**: Follow the cost - side logic, pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments, and control risks [41]. - **Bottle Chip**: On the previous trading day, the bottle chip 2603 main contract rose. The processing fee decreased, the supply load decreased slightly, and the export growth rate increased. - **Investment Strategy**: Follow the cost - side logic and control risks [42]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract was flat. The macro - situation is complex, with concerns about economic recession and speculation about Fed rate cuts. The fundamentals remain in a tight balance, and the copper price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. - **Market Outlook**: High - level oscillation [44] [45]. - **Aluminum**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract fell, and the alumina main contract rose. The alumina supply is in surplus, and the aluminum price may maintain a high - level oscillation. - **Market Outlook**: High - level oscillation [46] [47]. - **Zinc**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract fell. The zinc price lacks strong driving force, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillate and adjust [48] [49]. - **Lead**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose slightly. The consumption is in the off - season, and the lead price is expected to oscillate weakly within a range. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillate within a range [50] [51]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, the tin main contract fell. The supply is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. The tin price is expected to oscillate strongly. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillate strongly [53]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, the nickel main contract rose. The Indonesian policy risk increases, and the nickel market is in a surplus pattern. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to relevant Indonesian policies [54]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil main contracts rose. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal grows moderately, and the demand for soybean oil improves slightly. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal at the low - cost support interval and long - position opportunities for soybean oil call options at the low interval [55] [56]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price rose. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium - to - low level in the past 7 years. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for now [57] [59]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed price rebounded. The domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are in the process of destocking. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for now [60] [61]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price oscillated strongly, and the international cotton price oscillated weakly. The domestic cotton output increased, but the inventory accumulation was less than expected, and the cotton price is expected to run strongly. - **Market Outlook**: Run strongly [62] [64]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar price rebounded slightly, and the international sugar price rose. The domestic sugar supply pressure is increasing, but the 01 contract is lower than the spot price, and the current warehouse receipt volume is low. - **Market Outlook**: Run weakly and oscillate [66] [69]. - **Apple**: The domestic apple futures oscillated. The apple inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the output and quality have declined. The apple price is expected to run strongly. - **Market Outlook**: Run strongly [70] [71]. - **Pig**: The national average pig price rose slightly. The northern market may turn stronger, and the southern market may slow down its decline. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see [73] [74]. - **Egg**: The egg price remained flat. The egg supply in December may remain at a high level, but the demand is weak. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for now [75] [77]. - **Corn and Starch**: The corn and corn starch main contracts rose slightly. The northern port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the demand for corn maintains a slight growth trend. Corn starch may follow the corn market. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for the release of supply pressure [78] [80].

Group 1 - Global precious metal prices have seen significant fluctuations this year, with gold and silver reaching historical highs, and palladium and platinum futures recently experiencing substantial increases [1] - As of December 22, global precious metals collectively rose, with London gold reaching $4420.47 per ounce, up over 68% year-to-date, and London silver hitting $69.45 per ounce, up nearly 140% year-to-date [2] - Domestic precious metals also surged, with palladium and platinum futures hitting daily limits, silver futures up 6.06% year-to-date, and gold futures surpassing 1000 yuan per gram, up 62.3% year-to-date [2] Group 2 - The increase in precious metal prices is attributed to abundant liquidity and strong supply constraints, with metals like gold, silver, platinum, and palladium benefiting from these conditions [3] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached 1313 tons in Q3, with investment demand surging 47% year-on-year, accounting for 55% of total demand [4] - Central banks, including the People's Bank of China, have been increasing gold reserves, with a reported addition of 30,000 ounces in November, marking the 13th consecutive month of increases [4] Group 3 - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange launched platinum and palladium futures on November 27, filling a gap in domestic derivatives, with prices for both metals rising sharply post-launch [5] - A report from Huachuang Securities suggests that the weakening of the dollar credit system and global central bank gold purchases will support long-term gold demand, with silver prices benefiting from supply-demand gaps [6] - In the A-share market, precious metal concept stocks have seen an average increase of 97.03% year-to-date, with several stocks, including Zhaojin Gold, rising over 100% [6] Group 4 - Zhaojin Gold has seen a cumulative increase of 247.61% this year, attributed to ongoing investments in its mining operations, which are expected to boost gold production in the coming years [7] - Despite the significant price increases, valuations of precious metal stocks are relatively high, with a median rolling P/E ratio of 33.12, although some stocks remain below 30 [7] - Zijin Mining has the lowest P/E ratio in the industry at 18.99, with strong performance in revenue and net profit growth, alongside ongoing expansion projects [7]

中信建投研报认为，美国11月CPI超预期降温，令市场对美联储2026年降息幅度有所上修，黄金、白 银、铂、钯等贵金属价格走强，锡、铜、铝等工业金属亦表现强势。金属价格上涨的背后，一面是充裕 的流动性，另一面是供给的强约束，推动商品价格不断挑战阶段性高点。 黄金需求创季度新高 今年以来，全球贵金属价格走势不平静，其中黄金和白银价格不断创出历史新高，今年11月在广州期货 交易所上市的钯和铂期货近期更是连续大涨。 贵金属价格大幅上涨 本周一（12月22日），全球贵金属主要品种集体上涨，截至17时，伦敦金现上涨近1.7%，盘中创下 4420.47美元/盎司的新高，年初至今上涨超68%；伦敦银现上涨超1.7%，盘中创出69.45美元/盎司的高 位，年初至今上涨近140%；现货铂金、现货钯金当天分别上涨超4%和近2%。 国内贵金属也大幅上涨。钯、铂期货主力合约当天均报收涨停，白银期货主力合约收盘上涨6.06%，年 内涨幅达到116.16%；黄金期货主力合约收盘再次突破100元/克，上涨2.1%，年内涨幅达到62.3%。 受贵金属价格集体上涨影响，A股、港股相关个股亦有明显涨幅。万得贵金属行业指数周一大涨4.2%， 共有3 ...