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瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20250922
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 09:40
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market shows a complex situation. In the short - term, there is a game between weak supply - demand and cost support. The V2601 daily K - line is concerned about the support near 4900 yuan/ton. - The PVC social inventory continues to increase, with high pressure. The terminal real - estate market is weak, dragging down domestic demand. The Indian anti - dumping policy on PVC is expected to be implemented soon, and the export market is in a wait - and - see state. - Currently, both calcium carbide and ethylene processes are in continuous losses. There are no planned new maintenance devices in the short term, and the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to increase this week due to the restart of some devices. New capacity is about to be put into production, increasing the long - term supply pressure [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of PVC (V2601) is 4938 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the trading volume is 824910 hands, up 36539 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 104363 hands, down 2087 hands [3]. - **Spot Market**: In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5010 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4786.54 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4851.25 yuan/ton, up 19.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 dollars/ton (unchanged), and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 dollars/ton (unchanged) [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central, northern, and northwestern regions has increased. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged at - 575 yuan/ton. The intermediate prices of VCM and EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia remain unchanged [3]. - **Industrial Situation**: The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.96%, down 2.98%. The social inventory of PVC is 53.46 tons, up 0.3 tons [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.26. The cumulative values of new housing construction area, real - estate construction area, and real - estate development investment have all increased [3]. - **Option Market**: The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of PVC have decreased. The implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options have increased slightly [3]. 3.2. Industry News - From September 13th to 19th, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.98% to 76.96%, and the downstream operating rate increased by 1.69% to 49.19%. Among them, the operating rate of pipes increased by 1.52% to 39.13%, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 0.21% to 39.43% [3]. - As of September 18th, the PVC social inventory was 95.37 tons, up 2.03% from the previous week. The weekly average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased to 5230 yuan/ton, and the weekly average cost of ethylene - based PVC increased to 5631 yuan/ton. The weekly profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 155 yuan/ton to 657 yuan/ton, and the weekly profit of ethylene - based PVC increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 652 yuan/ton [3].
多品种财经动态:钢材检修、碳酸锂价格上涨等
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-19 14:38
Group 1 - The State Council is researching standards and policies for government procurement of domestic products, which is seen as an important measure to improve the procurement system and ensure fair competition [1] - The People's Bank of China announced adjustments to the 14-day reverse repurchase operations to maintain liquidity and meet funding needs, with operations determined by liquidity management [1] - In the steel industry, there has been an increase in the scale of maintenance at steel mills, with 12 provinces involved, affecting production by approximately 29.96 million tons this week [1] Group 2 - In the soybean meal sector, actual soybean crushing volume reached 2.4275 million tons with an operating rate of 67.76%, which is 30,100 tons higher than estimated [1] - The lithium carbonate price index for battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 73,534 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 70 yuan [1] - The PVC industry shows a capacity utilization rate of 76.96%, down 2.98% from the previous period, with specific methods showing varying declines [1] Group 3 - The styrene industry reported a daily profit of -411 yuan per ton for non-integrated units, indicating an increase in losses compared to the previous working day [1] - As of September 19, the Shanghai export container freight index was reported at 1,198.21 points, a decrease of 199.90 points from the previous period [1] - Citigroup forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will drop to $60 per barrel by the end of 2025, with an average of $62 per barrel in the second to fourth quarters of 2026 [1]
工厂产能利用率涨跌互现 短期丙烯盘面区间震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-19 06:06
Core Viewpoint - Propylene futures are experiencing fluctuations, with the main contract showing a decline of 0.67% to 6400.0 yuan as of the latest report [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Analysis - In the week of September 12-18, 2025, China's propylene production reached 1.2029 million tons, an increase of 21,800 tons from the previous week, representing a growth of 1.85% [2] - The operating rates of downstream propylene factories showed mixed results, with the highest increase in the utilization rate of propylene acid products, while the largest decline was seen in epoxy propane utilization rates due to several facilities undergoing maintenance [2] - Overall, the supply and demand for propylene are relatively balanced, with maintenance activities tightening the spot market, leading to a stable futures market [2] Group 2: Price Trends and Market Sentiment - As of September 18, propylene prices in East China were quoted at 6450 yuan/ton, while prices in Shandong were at 6580 yuan/ton [3] - The overall operating rate of propylene production has decreased, with more PDH facilities shutting down, leading to reduced spot availability in Shandong [3] - The rising prices of raw material propane are providing cost support, but terminal demand remains stable, resulting in thin production profits and limited acceptance of high-priced sources by manufacturers [3]
双胶纸 短期低位运行
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-09-19 00:33
Core Viewpoint - The double-sided coated paper industry is facing challenges due to declining demand, high inventory levels, and low production margins, despite an increase in production capacity and some recovery in supply from major producers [3][4][10]. Industry Overview - Double-sided coated paper, also known as "Dawlin paper," is a major type of cultural printing paper, primarily used in book printing [1]. - The upstream products for double-sided coated paper are pulp, with production costs heavily reliant on various types of pulp, which account for 60%-70% of the total cost [2]. - The domestic production capacity of double-sided coated paper has grown significantly from 7.89 million tons in 2010 to an expected 18 million tons by the end of 2025 [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The main downstream application for double-sided coated paper is book printing, which accounts for 88% of its usage [3]. - In 2024, the domestic production of double-sided coated paper is projected to be 10.49 million tons, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [4]. - However, the production capacity utilization rate is low, averaging 62% in 2024, with a significant drop in production observed in early 2025 due to weak market demand [7][8]. Export and Import Trends - In 2024, the import volume of double-sided coated paper is expected to be 200,000 tons, while exports are projected at 968,000 tons, resulting in a net export of 770,000 tons [3][9]. - The net export volume has decreased in 2025 compared to the previous year, indicating a slowdown in overseas demand [9]. Inventory Levels - As of September 12, 2024, the total inventory of double-sided coated paper reached a record high of 1.744 million tons, with manufacturers and traders actively reducing stock levels [10]. Profitability and Pricing - As of September 12, 2024, domestic producers are facing losses of 135 yuan per ton, with historical price fluctuations showing a maximum profit of 1,562 yuan and a minimum loss of 874 yuan per ton [11][15]. - The price of high-quality double-sided coated paper is currently between 4,500 and 4,800 yuan per ton, with expectations of continued low prices due to high supply and inventory levels [15].
合成橡胶产业日报-20250918
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 10:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber is sufficient. Under the influence of downstream bargain - hunting purchases, the negotiation focus on the spot side is continuously under pressure. Some industry players expect a certain reduction in the mainstream supply price. This week, both enterprise inventories and sample trading enterprise inventories have decreased slightly. Before the holiday, downstream enterprises have pre - holiday stocking needs, and it is expected that buyers will gradually follow up, and the inventory level is expected to continue to decline. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased slightly this week. Most enterprises maintain their current production schedules to reserve inventory around the long holiday and make up for the previous order gap. The overall capacity utilization rate will mainly fluctuate slightly. The short - term price of the BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan; the position volume of the main contract is 74,503, an increase of 7,604; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,610 tons, a decrease of 360 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,700 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the basis of synthetic rubber is 235 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The current - week production capacity of butadiene is 151,200 tons/week, with no change; the current - week capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.33%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 25,600 tons, a decrease of 5,350 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.64%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points; the monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons; the current - week capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.48%, a decrease of 2.68 percentage points; the current - week production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 509 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 34,500 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons; the manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,300 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons; the trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 8,210 tons, an increase of 950 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.46%, an increase of 5.99 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.59%, an increase of 5.81 percentage points; the monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 38.83 days, a decrease of 0.05 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.94 days, an increase of 0.09 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 18, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 33,700 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29%; as of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points; in August 2025, the output of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2] 3.6 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]
合成橡胶产业日报-20250917
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 09:17
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the reduction in supply is gradually becoming evident. After the price cuts of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber, the spot offers are gradually declining, which may prompt some downstream enterprises to start stocking up. As a result, the inventories of producers and traders may slightly decrease [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly, and most enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month have returned to normal levels. It is expected that most enterprises will maintain their current production schedules this week to build up inventory for the "National Day" holiday and fill the gaps in previous orders. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly [2]. - The BR2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,500 - 12,000 in the short - term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,590 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from the previous period. The position of the main contract is 66,899 yuan/ton, up 2,683 yuan/ton [2]. - The price spread between October and November for synthetic rubber is 40 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,970 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 110 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 68.47 dollars/barrel, up 1.03 dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is 64.52 dollars/barrel, up 1.22 dollars/barrel [2]. - The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 604.88 dollars/ton, down 3.62 dollars/ton. The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 850 dollars/ton, unchanged. The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,090 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 151,200 tons, unchanged. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.33%, down 0.12 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene at the end of the week is 25,600 tons, down 5,350 tons. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.64%, up 0.54 percentage points [2]. - The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, up 6,500 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.48%, down 2.68 percentage points [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 509 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 34,500 tons, up 2,600 tons [2]. - The producer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 26,300 tons, up 1,650 tons. The trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week is 8,210 tons, up 950 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.46%, up 5.99 percentage points. The weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.59%, up 5.81 percentage points [2]. - The monthly production of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces. The monthly production of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 38.83 days, down 0.05 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 45.94 days, up 0.09 days [2]. Industry News - As of September 11, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 34,500 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% [2]. - As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a month - on - month increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a month - on - month increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points [2]. - In August 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber production was 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. Although some production facilities had short - term maintenance, the overall production reached a high level this year [2].
纯苯偏弱苯乙烯支撑有限,震荡延续
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 08:59
Report Title - Energy Chemicals Pure Benzene & Styrene Daily Report [1] Report Date - September 17, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene market remains weak due to increased supply from restarted and new - added plants, weak demand from downstream industries, and limited cost support from crude oil. Short - term market is likely to stay in weak and volatile consolidation [2] - Styrene has shown a temporary stabilization due to sudden production cuts. However, demand improvement is limited, and if there is no continuous maintenance or significant policy support, the medium - term market will fluctuate with crude oil prices [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - **Prices**: On September 16, the styrene main contract rose 1.00% to 7158 yuan/ton with a basis of 37 (+9 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract rose 0.68% to 6073 yuan/ton [2] - **Costs**: On September 16, Brent crude closed at 63.3 dollars/barrel (+0.6 dollars/barrel), WTI crude at 67.4 dollars/barrel (+0.5 dollars/barrel), and East China pure benzene spot price was 5970 yuan/ton (+25 yuan/ton) [2] - **Inventory**: Styrene inventory was 15.9 tons (-1.8 tons), a 9.9% de - stocking; pure benzene port inventory was 13.4 tons (-1.0 tons), a 6.9% de - stocking [2] - **Supply**: Styrene production and capacity utilization decreased as some plants were under maintenance. Weekly production was 35.4 tons (-2.2 tons), and capacity utilization was 75.0% (-4.8%) [2] - **Demand**: Downstream 3S industries had different capacity utilization changes. EPS was 61.0% (-8.5%), ABS was 70.0% (+1.0%), and PS was 61.9% (+0.9%) [2] (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: Supply - side production increased due to restarted and new - added plants, while demand was weak as downstream industries'开工 rates declined. With limited crude - oil cost support, the market is likely to stay weak in the short term [2] - **Styrene**: Temporary supply cuts led to a price rebound, but demand improvement was limited. If maintenance doesn't continue or there are no policy incentives, the medium - term market will fluctuate with crude oil [3] 2. Industry Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices - Styrene futures and spot prices, basis, and pure benzene futures and spot prices all had certain increases on September 16 compared to September 15. Upstream crude oil prices also rose slightly [5] (2) Styrene & Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - From September 5 to September 12, styrene production decreased by 5.97% to 35.4 tons, and pure benzene production increased slightly by 0.49% to 45.6 tons. Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 10.18%, while factory inventory increased by 2.52%. Pure benzene port inventory decreased by 3.36% [6] (3) Capacity Utilization - From September 5 to September 12, the capacity utilization of pure benzene downstream industries (styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline) generally declined, while that of styrene downstream industries (EPS, ABS, PS) had mixed changes [7] 3. Industry News - The US imposed high tariffs on Asian chemical products, leading to adjustments in the global petrochemical industry structure. China's refining and chemical industry faced intensified losses in the first half of 2025, and the country's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern centered on East China [8] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene price difference, styrene and pure benzene inventory, and the capacity utilization of related industries [9][14][19]
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250917
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 01:42
Group 1: General Information - Report title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures market quotes: For plastic 2601, the opening price was 7232 yuan/ton, the closing price was 7234 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (0.44%), with a trading volume of 25.6 lots and a decrease in positions by 30939 to 524036 lots; for PP2601, the closing price was 6970 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan (0.35%), with a decrease in positions by 34852 to 581302 lots [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - Market performance: Futures opened higher and fluctuated, boosting market trading sentiment. Spot prices rose in some areas, and terminal buyers purchased raw materials as needed [6] - Supply situation: Upstream maintenance levels exceeded expectations, with more shutdown devices. Production capacity utilization and output declined. New PP production capacity from CNOOC Daxie Phase II brought supply pressure, and there were still second - line devices to be put into production in September [6] - Demand situation: The downstream was in the transition from the off - season to the peak season. The agricultural film industry entered the peak season, with the operating load rising but at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The overall demand was not fully released. The operating rate of PP downstream industries increased, and there was still room for demand recovery [6] - Cost situation: Due to the expected increase in crude oil supply and a weak medium - to - long - term fundamental outlook, cost support weakened [6] - Overall situation: The market was in a pattern of both supply and demand recovery. As low - price resources were gradually consumed, the price center stabilized and rebounded [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory: On September 16, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 670,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (4.29%) from the previous working day, compared to 820,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - PE price: PE market prices rose in some areas. The LLDPE price in North China was 7140 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China was 7230 - 7700 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7320 - 7750 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene price: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 6530 - 6620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The demand support was weak, and the market transaction price was at the lower end [7] - PP price: PP market prices rose slightly in some areas. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6740 - 6880 yuan/ton, in East China was 6720 - 6930 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6720 - 6930 yuan/ton [7][8]
August industrial production beats estimates up 0.1%
Youtube· 2025-09-16 13:41
Group 1 - The August industrial production data showed an unexpected increase of 0.1%, reversing the previous month's decline of 0.1% [1] - Utilization rates remained stable at 77.4%, which is the second weakest level of the year, with the weakest recorded in January [2] - There have been downward revisions in import prices, indicating potential challenges in the manufacturing sector [2]
合成橡胶产业日报-20250916
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 09:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the reduction in supply is gradually reflected. After the supply prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene are lowered, the spot quotations gradually decline, which may drive some downstream enterprises to gradually stock up, and the inventories of production enterprises and trade may decrease slightly. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly last week, and most enterprises are expected to maintain the current production schedule this week, with the overall capacity utilization rate fluctuating slightly. The short - term price of the br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,500 - 12,000 [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the position of the main contract is 64,216, an increase of 45,431; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,970 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber is 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 67.44 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.45 US dollars; WTI crude oil is 63.3 US dollars/barrel. Naphtha CFR Japan is 608.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 850 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,090 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the market price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. The weekly capacity of butadiene is 151,200 tons, unchanged; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.33%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 25,600 tons, a decrease of 5,350 tons. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.64%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points [2] 3.4 Production and Inventory of Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 0.65 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 73.48%, a decrease of 2.68 percentage points; the weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 509 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 34,500 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 26,300 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 8,210 tons, an increase of 950 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.46%, an increase of 5.99 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.59%, an increase of 5.81 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 38.83 days, a decrease of 0.05 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.94 days, an increase of 0.09 days [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of September 11, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 34,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,600 tons, or 8.15%. As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a week - on - week increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a week - on - week increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points. Most tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month have resumed normal operations, driving the increase in capacity utilization. In August 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber output was 135,700 tons, an increase of 6,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. Although some production facilities had short - term maintenance, the overall supply was sufficient, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises increased [2]