1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall trend of commodities is driven by macro - sentiment. PTA may experience a short - term decline from high levels under the expectation of a fall in commodity sentiment due to new device production and poor terminal performance. MEG is expected to mainly follow cost fluctuations in the short term, with its cost support limited and supply pressure postponed [6]. - The cost side shows that crude oil continues to fluctuate widely, and PX is expected to run warmly in the short term. The supply side of PTA remains stable, while the total supply of MEG is expected to increase. The demand side of polyester is expected to change little, and the terminal demand is weakly declining [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Upstream Industry Chain Analysis - **Market Review**: OPEC+ is still in the process of increasing production, and geopolitical tensions are easing, leading to a decline in international crude oil. PX prices increased slightly due to good commodity sentiment despite limited support from cost and a weakening naphtha [16]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Tianjin Petrochemical's maintenance led to a narrow decline in PX capacity utilization. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization was 82.81%, down 0.35% from last week, and the Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization was 72.87%, down 0.28% [21]. - **Price Spread**: The PX - naphtha price spread rebounded slightly as naphtha prices weakened and commodity sentiment was good in China. As of July 25, the PX - naphtha price spread was 292.5 dollars/ton, up 30.55 dollars/ton from July 18 [22]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: Driven by macro factors, PTA had a weak rebound. The supply was stable, demand shrank slightly, and the balance sheet continued to accumulate inventory. As of July 25, the PTA spot price was 4900 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2509 - 5 [27]. - **Capacity Utilization**: There were no significant changes in PTA devices this week, and the capacity utilization fluctuated narrowly at 80.76%, remaining flat compared to the previous period. In July, Helen Petrochemical plans to start production, and Hengli has a maintenance plan, so the PTA capacity utilization is expected to fluctuate slightly [30]. - **Processing Fee**: The PTA processing fee was significantly repaired. Although the balance sheet continued to accumulate inventory and downstream procurement enthusiasm was blocked, there was an expectation of increased maintenance at low processing fees, so the processing fee is expected to continue to be repaired at a low level next week [31]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In July, with the commissioning of new PTA devices and the implementation of polyester production cuts, the supply - demand of PTA turned to inventory accumulation [34]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: Driven by macro and cost factors, ethylene glycol rebounded significantly. After breaking through and rising, it entered a high - level volatile trend. As of July 25, the closing price of Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol was 4579 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4580 yuan/ton [40]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Some devices reduced their loads, and the ethylene glycol capacity utilization decreased slightly. The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization was 59.20%, up 0.71% compared to the previous period. In July, domestic production is expected to increase, and overall supply will increase slightly [44]. - **Port Inventory**: Due to weak terminal demand, the ethylene glycol port inventory fluctuated at a low level. As of July 24, the total ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port area was 47.5 tons, up 1.57 tons from July 21 [46]. - **Processing Profit**: Ethylene glycol rebounded from a low level, and processing profits increased across the board. As of July 25, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - 81.9 dollars/ton, up 20.69 dollars/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was 75.2 yuan/ton, up 35.73 yuan/ton from last week [51]. 3.4 Downstream Demand Side of the Industry Chain Analysis - **Capacity Utilization**: Due to large - scale production cuts, the polyester capacity utilization decreased slightly to 86.4%, down 0.29% from the previous period. It is expected that the domestic polyester supply will decline significantly next week [54]. - **Production Volume**: In July, due to the seasonal off - season and high cash - flow pressure, the polyester monthly output is expected to decline significantly [56]. - **Capacity Utilization of Different Products**: The capacity utilization of polyester products was differentiated. The weekly average capacity utilization of polyester filament was 92.09%, down 0.85% from the previous period; the average capacity utilization of polyester staple fiber was 84.78%, down 1.64% from the previous period; and the capacity utilization of fiber - grade polyester chips was 76.58%, up 0.22% from last week [61]. - **Inventory**: Due to downstream centralized replenishment, the inventory of polyester products decreased significantly [62]. - **Cash - Flow**: With the significant increase in raw material prices, the cash - flow of polyester products was compressed, and the cash - flow loss expanded [67]. - **Weaving Market**: The off - season atmosphere in the weaving market deepened, and the start - up rate continued to decline. As of July 24, the comprehensive start - up rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 55.59%, down 0.24% from the previous period, and the average terminal weaving order days were 6.94 days, a decrease of 0.33 days from last week [70]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industry Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: Crude oil declined, and PX prices increased slightly due to good commodity sentiment [72]. - **Supply Side**: The PTA capacity utilization remained flat, and the MEG capacity utilization increased slightly [72]. - **Demand Side**: The polyester capacity utilization decreased slightly, and the weaving industry start - up rate was low with weak terminal demand [72]. - **Inventory**: PTA inventory shifted from destocking to inventory accumulation, and the MEG port inventory in the East China main port area fluctuated [73].

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profitability in 2024, attributed to a downturn in the real estate market and increased competition in the coating industry [1][2][3] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 2.052 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 34.01%, with a corresponding operating cost of 1.658 billion yuan and a gross margin of 19.23% [1][4] - The net cash flow from operating activities was -419 million yuan, a reversal from a positive cash flow of 438 million yuan in 2023 [1][4] - Quarterly revenue for 2024 was reported as 295 million yuan, 748 million yuan, 682 million yuan, and 328 million yuan, with net profits of -88 million yuan, 53 million yuan, -3 million yuan, and -321 million yuan respectively [1][4] Industry Context - The overall coating industry faced a downturn due to a 10.6% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment and a 12.7% decrease in construction area [3][4] - The competitive landscape in the coating industry is fragmented, with a low market concentration (CR10 at 21.72%), leading to aggressive pricing strategies among companies [3][4] Comparison with Peers - The company's revenue decline is consistent with trends observed in comparable companies, with most peers also experiencing significant drops in revenue and profitability [4][5] - For instance, the company’s engineering coating revenue fell by 48.64%, while peers like "Three Trees" and "Oriental Yuhong" also reported declines in their respective revenues [4][5] Operational Challenges - The company’s shift towards a distribution model, which accounted for 86.48% of its revenue, faced challenges due to market conditions and increased competition [1][2] - The company reported a decrease in the number of registered distributors from the previous year, indicating potential issues in market penetration and sales [1][2] Cash Flow and Expenses - The company’s cash receipts from sales dropped by 47.21% to 1.721 billion yuan, which was a steeper decline than the revenue drop [4][5] - Increased operational expenses were noted, particularly in the fourth quarter, attributed to year-end settlements and higher financing costs [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the phenomenon of "involution" in various industries within the A-share market, particularly emphasizing the midstream manufacturing sector's more pronounced competition compared to upstream resource industries. It notes that the willingness to expand production has significantly decreased across most industries, with over half showing strong capacity for expansion [1][2]. Existing Capacity Utilization Level - The industry capacity utilization rate is calculated using the Cobb-Douglas production function, measuring the ratio of actual output to potential maximum output under given capital and labor factors. As of Q1 2025, most industries are operating at historically low capacity utilization levels, with only the home appliance and electronics sectors showing upward trends [1]. Potential Incremental Capacity Level - The marginal changes in industry capacity will influence capacity utilization trends, particularly the timing of turning points. The willingness to expand production is assessed through the historical ratio of capital expenditures to depreciation. As of Q1 2025, most industries are at historically low levels of expansion willingness, except for utilities, coal, and non-ferrous metals, which show relatively stronger willingness. The expansion capacity is primarily determined by current cash reserves and cash flow, with most primary industries at historically high levels of expansion capacity [2]. Historical Capacity Clearing in Different Industries - In emerging industries, the clearing signal is linked to cash capability and a drop in expansion willingness. For instance, the solar industry experienced a rapid decline in capacity utilization from 2011 to 2015, reaching a low point in Q1 2013, followed by two years of low-level fluctuations until significant relief in overcapacity occurred in Q2 2014 when both cash capability and expansion willingness dropped to 0%. In traditional industries like steel and coal, the clearing signal is an improvement in cash capability, with both industries undergoing a prolonged decline in potential incremental capacity, leading to a "V" shaped trajectory in capacity utilization [3]. Current Capacity Clearing Trajectory - Drawing from past experiences, the report discusses the current capacity clearing trajectory. In the renewable energy sector, lithium battery and solar capacity utilization rates have reached historical lows, with lithium's potential incremental capacity and utilization rates declining earlier than solar. Both sectors' expansion willingness is nearing 0% for the first time in a decade, while cash capability remains around historical median levels. Traditional industries, such as steel and coal, are not facing severe overcapacity issues like in previous cycles, with current capacity utilization rates approaching 19-year lows, and signs of improving cash capability in basic chemicals and steel [4].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the prevalence of "involution" competition across most primary industries in the A-share market, particularly highlighting the midstream manufacturing sector as more pronounced than upstream resource products [1] - It discusses the necessity of addressing "involution" competition in the current macroeconomic environment, as highlighted in a recent publication [1] - The article outlines the progress of capacity clearance across different industries, focusing on capacity utilization rates and potential incremental capacity [1] Existing Capacity Utilization - The methodology for measuring industry capacity utilization is based on the Cobb-Douglas production function, comparing actual output to potential maximum output [2] - As of Q1 2025, most industries are experiencing "involution" competition, with capacity utilization levels at historical lows, except for the home appliance and electronics sectors, which are on an upward trend [2] Potential Incremental Capacity - The potential for incremental capacity in industries is assessed through two dimensions: expansion willingness and capacity [3] - As of Q1 2025, most industries show low expansion willingness, with only utilities, coal, and non-ferrous metals exhibiting relatively strong willingness [3] - The expansion capacity is generally at a historical mid-high level, with sectors like telecommunications, agriculture, and home appliances showing healthy cash flow [3] Capacity Clearance Trajectories - Different industries exhibit varying capacity clearance paths depending on their lifecycle stages [5] - In emerging industries, clearance signals are linked to cash capabilities and low expansion willingness, as seen in the solar industry from 2011 to 2015 [5] - Traditional industries like steel and coal have shown a prolonged decline in potential incremental capacity, with capacity utilization rates initially dropping before rising again, forming a "V" shape [5] Current Industry Dynamics - In the current cycle, the upstream resource sectors are not facing severe supply overcapacity issues, with capacity utilization rates for steel and coal nearing 19-year lows due to demand decline [12] - The cash capability in traditional industries is showing signs of improvement, particularly in basic chemicals and steel [12] - In the renewable energy sector, lithium battery and solar capacity utilization rates have reached historical lows, with both sectors' expansion willingness nearing 0% over the past decade [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Inner Mongolia Oujing Technology Co., Ltd., is facing significant financial challenges, with projected net losses for the first half of 2025, primarily due to supply-demand imbalances in the photovoltaic industry and low product prices [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company expects a net loss of between 86 million yuan and 70 million yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 125.75 million yuan in the same period last year [1]. - As of March 31, 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio was 52.13%, with total debts amounting to 846 million yuan and cash assets totaling 801 million yuan [2]. Credit Rating - The credit rating agency, Zhongzheng Pengyuan, has maintained the company's credit rating at AA- and the rating for its convertible bonds at AA-, while placing both ratings on a watch list [2][5]. - The balance of the "Oujing Convertible Bonds" as of July 23, 2025, was 469 million yuan, with a maturity date of November 23, 2029 [2]. Industry Context - The photovoltaic industry continues to experience supply-demand imbalances, which has adversely affected the company's production capacity utilization and pricing [1].

Financial Performance - Q2 total revenue is expected to be $21.934 billion, with automotive revenue at $16.001 billion, energy revenue at $2.958 billion, and services and other revenue at $2.975 billion[4] - Expected net profit is $1.003 billion, with GAAP EPS at $0.28 per share and Non-GAAP EPS at $0.39 per share[5] - Q2 total gross margin is projected at 16.4%, with automotive Non-GAAP gross margin at 13.55%[4] Market Concerns - Recent stock price volatility is attributed to lowered delivery expectations for Q2 and the full year[5] - Delay in the release of the cheaper Model 2/Q, originally planned for H1 2025, raises concerns[5] - Departure of the robotics head and issues with the third-generation design of the Optimus robot contribute to uncertainty[5] Production and Sales Outlook - Q2 production is nearing last year's levels, with the Model Y confirmed as a key bestseller[5] - Pickup truck sales are significantly below expectations, necessitating close monitoring in H2[5] - New model releases in H2 are anticipated to improve factory utilization rates[5] Key Discussion Points for Earnings Call - Guidance for H2 and progress on new models will be major topics[6] - Strategies for addressing the end of Q3 IRA subsidies for automotive and energy businesses will be discussed[6] - Expansion plans for Robotaxi and updates on FSD v14 will be highlighted[6]

Core Viewpoint - Yuan Chuang Technology Co., Ltd. has updated its prospectus after being stuck in the inquiry phase for two years, planning to raise 485 million RMB despite significant declines in gross profit margin [1][4]. Company Overview - Yuan Chuang was established on June 9, 2006, focusing on the research, production, and sales of rubber track products used in agriculture and engineering [3]. - The company attempted to list on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in December 2021 but withdrew its application in November 2022 before the meeting [3]. Financial Performance - The company reported increasing revenue but declining net profit from 2022 to 2024, with revenues of 1.261 billion RMB, 1.141 billion RMB, and 1.349 billion RMB, and net profits of 139 million RMB, 178 million RMB, and 155 million RMB respectively [5]. - The gross profit margins fluctuated significantly during the reporting period, recorded at 21.58%, 28.28%, and 22.75% [7]. Asset and Liability Metrics - Total assets increased from 1.588 billion RMB in 2022 to 1.990 billion RMB in 2024, while equity attributable to shareholders rose from 888 million RMB to 1.232 billion RMB [6]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio improved from 44.06% in 2022 to 38.09% in 2024 [6]. Production Capacity and Utilization - The production capacity utilization for rubber tracks was 88.32% in 2022, dropped to 71.90% in 2023, and rebounded to 91.41% in 2024 [9]. - The utilization rate for track plates decreased from 72.48% in 2022 to 63.88% in 2024 [9]. Investment Plans - The company plans to issue up to 19.6 million shares to raise 485 million RMB, with 400 million RMB allocated for the construction of a new production base [10][11]. - The new production base aims to increase the output of rubber tracks by 16.5% and track plates by 29.8% compared to 2021 levels [11]. Related Issues - The company has a family business structure, with the controlling shareholder holding 90.93% of the shares, and several family members in key positions [14][15]. - There are past allegations involving the controlling shareholder giving money to public officials, although it did not impact the company's operations [16].

Group 1: Production Capacity and Utilization - The company's overall production capacity utilization has increased compared to last year [2][3] - The cellulose and its derivatives segment has optimized production organization while ensuring safe operations [2] - The special industrial pump segment maintains stable production [3] Group 2: Export Structure and Strategy - The company is implementing a precise pricing strategy for nitrocellulose products based on market demand [3] - The export structure is primarily self-operated foreign trade, with port trade as a supplementary method [3] - The company aims to continuously expand the market and optimize product structure to enhance operational efficiency [3] Group 3: Financial Performance - Overall revenue has increased year-on-year, and product gross margin levels have improved [3] - Specific financial data will be disclosed in the upcoming 2025 semi-annual report [3] Group 4: Automation and Capacity Expansion - The automation transformation of the nitrocellulose production line focuses on safety and quality, with projects progressing as planned [3] - The company is monitoring market demand changes to validate capacity needs based on operational realities [3] Group 5: Stability in Chemical and Environmental Business - The chemical and environmental business segment has maintained stable operational performance [3] - Detailed performance data will be available in the forthcoming 2025 semi-annual report [3]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年07月20日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：短期震荡偏强 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 本周甲醇总结：短期震荡偏强 | | • | 本周(20250711-0717)中国甲醇产量为1869725吨，较上周减少30003吨，装置产能利用率为82.69%，环比跌1.58%。本周国内甲醇检修、减产涉及产能损失 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 量多于恢复涉及产能产出量，导致本周产能利用率下降。 | | 供应 | • | 下周，中国甲醇产量及产能利用率周数据预计：产量193.49万吨左右，产能利用率85.57%左右，较本期上涨。下周计划恢复涉及产能多于计划检修及减 | | | | 产涉及产能，因此或将导致产能利用率上涨，产量增加。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 烯烃方面，前期检修装置维持状态，青海盐湖烯烃 ...

Summary of TDI Market Analysis and Future Price Outlook Industry Overview - The TDI (Toluene Diisocyanate) market is currently facing significant disruptions due to a fire at Covestro's plant in Germany, which has reduced global effective capacity by approximately 35% [1][2][48]. - The incident is expected to exacerbate supply shortages, particularly in the European market, potentially leading to a global TDI supply gap of 400,000 to 500,000 tons by Q3 2025 [1][10]. Key Points and Arguments Supply and Demand Dynamics - Covestro's fire has directly impacted the supply of 300,000 tons of TDI, contributing to a global effective capacity reduction of about 1.1 million tons [2][48]. - Domestic TDI prices in China have surged from 12,000 CNY/ton to 14,200 CNY/ton, with expectations to exceed 15,000 CNY/ton soon [1][2][49]. - European spot prices have reached approximately 2,500 EUR, equivalent to about 19,500 CNY, reflecting an increase of over 30% [2][49]. Price Projections - TDI prices in East China are projected to range between 16,000 to 17,000 CNY/ton next month, stabilizing around 15,000 CNY/ton in Q4 [1][6][49]. - The gross margin for the TDI market is expected to exceed 40%-45% this month, reaching 55%-60% in Q3, and stabilizing around 50% in Q4 [7][8]. Impact on Downstream Industries - The polyurethane industry is significantly affected, with downstream clients maintaining only 7 to 10 days of inventory, leading to production cuts of 30% to 40% for small to medium enterprises [4][50]. - Production costs in the automotive and home appliance sectors are anticipated to rise by 10% to 15% due to increased TDI prices [4][50]. Recovery Timeline for Covestro - Covestro expects to restore 50% of its capacity by the end of August and achieve full production by September, although risks related to chlorine pipeline corrosion and environmental inspections may delay recovery [5][51][52]. Export Opportunities - With European prices significantly higher, domestic companies like Wanhua Chemical and Cangzhou Dahua are expected to increase their export share, with projections indicating that exports could rise from 25% to 40%-45% by 2025 [8][12]. Additional Important Insights Market Challenges - The TDI market is currently facing a triple crisis: supply, price, and inventory [10][11]. - Social and enterprise inventories are at historical lows, with large enterprises having a turnover of 10 to 15 days and some small manufacturers facing zero inventory [11]. Future Capacity and Demand Forecast - By 2025, global TDI capacity is expected to reach 3.6 million tons, with China accounting for 1.63 million tons [12][21]. - Demand growth is projected to slow to 3%, with significant contributions from the automotive and construction sectors [21][41]. Regional Demand Insights - In 2025, Europe is expected to account for 20% of TDI demand, approximately 700,000 tons, while China will represent 40%, around 140,000 to 145,000 tons, driven by supportive policies [13][21]. Environmental and Regulatory Considerations - Environmental pressures are prompting companies to develop low VOC products, which may enhance market competitiveness for firms like Wanhua [23][24]. - The potential for anti-dumping measures from Europe could arise if China's market share exceeds 40% [39]. Conclusion - The TDI market is currently in a state of flux due to supply disruptions and rising prices, with significant implications for downstream industries and export opportunities. The recovery of Covestro's production capacity will be critical in stabilizing the market, while ongoing environmental regulations and potential trade barriers will shape the future landscape of the TDI industry.