Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Precious Metals and Commodities Market - **Key Drivers**: Quantitative easing, tariff policies, geopolitical uncertainties, and inflation concerns have significantly influenced the prices of precious metals since 2020 [2][4][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Trends**: Precious metals have seen a strong performance, particularly silver and platinum, driven by global economic uncertainty and inflation fears. The internal rate of return (IRR) for precious metal projects can exceed 50%, making them more attractive than copper projects, which typically have an IRR of around 20% [2][6][4]. - **Copper Price Expectations**: The market anticipates copper prices to rise to $8 per pound due to insufficient current prices ($5 per pound) to incentivize new investments and production expansions [8]. - **Shift to Safe-Haven Assets**: Post-pandemic economic recovery in the U.S. has been weak, leading to a shift of funds towards safe-haven assets like precious metals, as confidence in U.S. debt repayment capabilities diminishes [9][11]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: Geopolitical uncertainties have prompted Western countries to accelerate the development of domestic critical mineral resources, impacting supply and prices [10][30]. Additional Important Insights - **Speculative Sentiment in Silver Market**: The decline in the gold-silver ratio indicates heightened speculative sentiment, with retail investors heavily buying silver, which could lead to a reversal of bullish sentiment [5][34]. - **Outlook for Industrial Metals**: The outlook for non-ferrous metals remains optimistic, with expectations of continued leadership in the market, particularly for copper, lithium, and gold [26][29]. - **Valuation of Precious Metals**: Precious metals are currently more attractive compared to other commodities due to lower initial capital expenditures and tighter supply conditions [6][31]. - **Market Volatility**: The upcoming change in the Federal Reserve chairmanship could lead to increased market volatility, affecting interest rate policies and overall market sentiment [15]. Market Dynamics - **Investment Opportunities**: The current low valuations in the non-ferrous metals sector present significant investment opportunities, with historical data suggesting a positive correlation between low price-to-earnings ratios and market performance [31]. - **Future Price Risks**: The silver market faces potential risks from speculative buying, which could lead to sharp price corrections if sentiment shifts [40][42]. - **Impact of Retail Investors**: Retail investors are expected to play a crucial role in the silver market, potentially driving prices higher in the short term, but their speculative behavior may also lead to volatility [42][43]. Conclusion The precious metals and commodities market is currently influenced by a combination of macroeconomic factors, geopolitical uncertainties, and speculative behaviors. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with significant opportunities for investment, particularly in precious metals and select industrial metals. However, potential risks from market volatility and shifts in investor sentiment must be closely monitored.

Moynihan补充道，中国的情况是个"特例"，北美贸易伙伴亦是如此——美墨加协定将于明年迎来复 审。"但从全球整体格局来看，关税政策的终极走向已初见端倪。" 他指出，今年二季度，高关税及贸易政策的不确定性曾对小企业造成冲击，后续随着税率趋稳，相关压 力有所缓解。Moynihan强调，当前小企业的核心顾虑已非关税问题，而是劳动力供应的不确定性，原 因在于特朗普政府的部分移民政策"尚未完全落地生效"。 "对多数国家而言，从全面征收10%关税调整到15%，影响并不显著，"Moynihan表示，"我们的分析团 队判断，这正是局势开始缓和的迹象。" 今年4月，特朗普宣布对所有对美出口国征收10%基准关税。7月又推出一系列新关税措施，若按计划实 施，主要贸易伙伴面临的平均税率将升至15.2%。据相关研究测算，特朗普重返白宫后，美国平均关税 税率已从2%大幅攀升至14%。 智通财经APP获悉，美国银行首席执行官Brian Moynihan表示，尽管2025年的关税措施曾冲击美国经 济，但他预计特朗普政府将于明年推动贸易紧张局势降温。 Moynihan在12月初录制、并于上周日播出的访谈中表示，美银目前判断局势将"走向缓和 ...

对于美国贸易政策而言，2025年如同坐上了"过山车"。总统特朗普在这一年发起了一连串新关税行动，使美国陷入了与几乎全球所有国家的贸易战。2025 ——这一美国全球关税战"元年"里，究竟发生了什么？ 夏季期间，特朗普政府一方面吹嘘与中国、英国及越南达成的贸易"框架"协议，另一方面向数十个国家发出信函，承诺将进一步加征关税，并显著升级了与 巴西和印度的贸易摩擦。 与此同时，特朗普继续扩大特定行业的关税规模，将钢铝关税提高至极具惩罚性的50%。在法律层面，一项针对关税的法律挑战引起关注：联邦法院一度裁 定禁止特朗普利用紧急权力法实施部分全面关税，但随后上诉法院暂时中止了该裁决，允许关税征收在案件审理期间继续进行。 这种突如其来的关税威胁和不断攀升的进口税往往显得杂乱无序——特朗普声称，必须立即征收此类税款，以缩小贸易失衡，并夺回被他认为从美国"偷 走"的财富。然而，这位总统也常因个人恩怨或回应政治批评而诉诸关税。关税政策的反复无常以及随之而来的报复行动，给企业和消费者带来了巨大的不 确定性，与此同时，美国家庭仍面临物价上涨的压力。 以下是特朗普过去一年重大贸易行动的时间线梳理： 1月至3月：瞄准核心贸易伙伴 重返白 ...

据美国CNBC网站日前报道，美国关税政策及其带来的供应链冲击，已在2025年推高靴子、手包等皮革 制品价格，耶鲁大学预算实验室预计，受通胀、供应链瓶颈和高关税等因素影响，美国皮革制品价格至 少在今后一两年将上涨近22%。旗下拥有蔻驰等手包品牌的美国泰佩思琦集团此前表示，公司与关税相 关的费用支出总计可能达1.6亿美元，并警告关税带来的负面影响将大于预期。（央视财经） ...

Economic Impact - The overall tariff rate in the U.S. has surged from 2.4% to 16.8%, the highest level since 1935, leading to increased consumer prices and higher corporate costs [1] - The Federal Reserve estimates that tariffs have raised core inflation by 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points, with consumer prices for appliances and electronics rising over 10% [1] - The contribution of tariffs to personal consumption expenditure inflation reached 10.9% over the past 12 months [1] GDP and Employment Forecasts - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 was 4.3%, driven mainly by consumption and a reduction in the trade deficit, but long-term tariff policies may slow economic growth [3] - Economic forecasts for U.S. growth in 2025 have been downgraded from 2.1% to 1.9%, with 2026 expected at 1.8% [5] - The unemployment rate has risen from 4.1% to 4.6%, with projections suggesting it could reach 5% if tariff policies persist [5] Comparison with China - China's GDP is projected to grow by 4.5% in 2025, significantly outpacing the U.S. growth forecast of 1.9% [7] - By 2028, China's GDP may reach $23.45 trillion, positioning it as a leading economic engine in Asia [7] - The U.S. manufacturing sector has not seen significant changes despite tariff policies, as supply chain disruptions have led to increased imports [7] International Relations and Influence - Trump's tariff policies have strained relationships with allies, diminishing U.S. international influence and leading to a perception of the U.S. as a source of trouble rather than a leader [15] - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum, with countries like Saudi Arabia considering non-dollar payment methods for oil exports [11][13] - China's Belt and Road Initiative and its growing partnerships, including a $3 billion commercial agreement with Saudi Arabia, highlight its expanding global influence [15]

特朗普的民调支持率持续下滑，接近历史最低点。根据盖洛普、纽约时报等机构最新发布的调查数据，特朗普的支持率已降至36%，接近其个人 历史最低。这一数据不仅低于拜登的43%，还远逊于奥巴马和小布什任内的支持率。更值得关注的是，独立选民的支持率只有25%，而民主党人 的支持率更是跌至3%。这些数据表明，特朗普正在失去跨党派支持。从民调数据分析来看，经济问题无疑是导致特朗普支持率低迷的最主要原 因。晨间咨询公司的调查显示，选民普遍希望政府能够有效控制物价，但只有少数人认为特朗普将通胀问题视为优先事项。自特朗普加征关税以 来，物价始终是美国消费者最担心的问题，尽管特朗普曾表示关税不会导致物价上涨，但事实证明，消费者成了关税负担的主要承受者。为了解 决这一问题，特朗普近期下调或取消了对巴西的关税，尤其是影响到美国消费者喜欢的商品如汉堡、咖啡等，这些产品价格大幅上涨。因此，如 果能进一步降低关税，从而减缓物价上涨的压力，或许能提高特朗普的支持率。SSRS调查进一步显示，在共和党及倾向共和党的独立人士中，约 40%的受访者将经济和生活成本问题列为主要担忧。NORC公共事务研究中心的数据显示，只有31%的美国人认可特朗普对经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the construction of tariff barriers by the largest global economy, international trade in goods is expected to maintain a relatively strong momentum in 2025, although the trajectory of trade is shifting with a decline in U.S. imports and robust growth in imports from developing economies in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America [3] Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Global container shipping volume increased by 2.1% year-on-year in October, but the global container supply chain is beginning to adjust and reshape trade patterns [3] - The U.S. container import volume is projected to decline significantly in 2025, contrasting with a 15.2% increase in 2024 [3] - Trade experts anticipate increased turbulence in international trade over the next year, driven by four key uncertainties: the review of the USMCA, the reopening of the Red Sea route, agreement uncertainties, and the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs [3] Group 2: USMCA Review - The U.S., Canada, and Mexico are set to review the USMCA, which allows for updates six years after its implementation [5] - Over 1,500 responses were received during the public consultation period, with many stakeholders supporting the agreement but calling for improvements [6] - Tensions between the U.S. and Canada have escalated following the suspension of trade talks due to a tariff advertisement controversy [6] Group 3: Shipping Concerns - Shipping companies express concerns about the upcoming year, with potential disruptions similar to those experienced during the pandemic [7] - The return to the Red Sea shipping route could lead to increased market capacity and severe port congestion in Europe [7] - Demand from the U.S. economy may not see significant growth, with estimates suggesting a maximum increase of less than 5% [8] Group 4: Trade Agreements - The Trump administration's trade agreements with various partners lack traditional legal binding and enforcement mechanisms, raising concerns about their stability [10] - The agreements with the UK and EU are described as non-binding, with the term "deal" lacking legal significance [10] - Ongoing negotiations with the EU and India are expected to continue into the new year, with potential retaliatory measures from the U.S. against the EU [10] Group 5: Supreme Court Ruling - A significant unknown in global trade for 2026 is the upcoming U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the legality of the Trump administration's tariffs [12] - If the Trump administration loses, it may have to refund tariffs paid by U.S. importers, although the process remains uncertain [12] - The likelihood of the Trump administration losing the case is estimated at 75%, which could force the government to utilize other powers to impose tariffs [12]

虽然全球最大经济体在构筑关税壁垒，但大部分国际机构的统计数据都证实，全球商品贸易在2025年仍 然保持了相对良好的势头。 不过，在整体韧性之下，暗流涌动，贸易的轨迹发生了转变：美国进口量下降，非洲、中东、拉丁美洲 等发展中经济体的进口量均呈现强劲增长态势。 美国知名智库海事战略中心研究员、航运业明星分析师麦科恩（John McCown）在最新一期研究报告中 称，10月全球集装箱货运量同比增长2.1%，但世界集装箱供应链已经开始调整和重塑贸易模式，"在美 国2024年全年集装箱进口量增长15.2%之后，如果说2025年的年度总数将与此截然相反，那都是轻描淡 写了。" 麦考恩认为，特朗普政府的贸易威胁是货物运输模式重塑的主要原因之一。他认为，如果说2025年是关 税之年，那么2026年将是关税后果显现之年。 与此同时，大部分贸易专家都预计，未来一年国际贸易动荡将加剧，而其中有四个"不确定性"最为关 键，分别是：重新审查美墨加协定（USMCA）、重启红海之路、协议的不确定性和美国最高法院对特 朗普政府关税的裁决。 重审美墨加协定 美国、加拿大和墨西哥即将开始审查2020年生效的《北美自由贸易协定》。美国贸易代表格里 ...

业内专家说，随着加征关税前的进口库存消耗殆尽，如今上架销售的产品不得不使用更为昂贵的皮革原 料，且外国加工成本和货运成本均有所上涨。高关税带来的后果是皮革制品零售价格走高，且不大可能 在短时间内回落。美国耶鲁大学预算实验室预计，受通胀、供应链瓶颈和高关税等因素影响，美国皮革 制品价格至少在今后一两年将上涨近22%。 耶鲁大学预算实验室负责政策分析的副主任约翰·里科表示，美国皮革行业在2026年承受的价格冲击将 更为显著，相关企业需要就是否将上涨的成本转嫁给消费者以及裁减工作岗位等事项作出决策。 得州悦足鞋业公司首席执行官普拉萨德·雷迪说，关税政策及其带来的供应链冲击让许多企业受到伤 害，几乎每家皮革企业都在为每个环节支付更多成本。 美国制鞋商得州悦足鞋业公司以生产西部风格鞋靴而闻名。今年4月，特朗普政府宣布的关税政策令这 家企业一夜之间陷入混乱。受成品靴进口成本激增、物流受到干扰等因素影响，公司员工一度不得不每 小时重新计算利润率。得州悦足鞋业公司的遭遇并非个例，美国其他皮革制品零售商都面临类似挑战。 美国泰佩思琦集团旗下拥有蔻驰等手包品牌，其高管今年8月向投资者表示，公司与关税相关的费用支 出总计可能达1. ...

新华社纽约12月25日电（记者刘亚南）美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）25日刊文说，美国关税政 策及其带来的供应链冲击已在2025年推高靴子、手包等皮革制品价格。未来两年，美国皮革制品价格预 计还将因关税、美国国内养牛数量减少而继续显著上涨。文章摘要如下： ...