2026 年 02 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：地缘扰动油价上涨，基本面逻辑延续 节前 豆油：美豆平稳运行，豆油区间反弹 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 -0.96% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 8,698 | | / | / | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,054 | -0.35% | / | / | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,038 | -0.10% | / | / | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,084 | -0.15% | 4,114 | 0.76% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 59.85 | 0.93% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 297,379 | -31236 | ...

Group 1: Market Impact - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the S&P 500 index falling by 1.04% to 6837.75 points, the Nasdaq composite dropping by 1.13% to 22627.27 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreasing by 1.66% to 48804.06 points on February 23 [1] - Concerns over tariffs and AI developments have contributed to market volatility, leading to a trend of "sell first, ask questions later" among investors [1] Group 2: Tariff Policy - The Biden administration is focusing on extending tariff measures rather than expediting refunds, implementing a temporary global 15% tariff for 150 days while utilizing traditional tools to build new tariff barriers [1][3] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies is negatively affecting market risk appetite, with analysts indicating that the Supreme Court ruling does not signal a trade easing [3] Group 3: AI Developments and Company Impact - Anthropic's AI programming tool "Claude Code" aims to modernize legacy systems using COBOL, which is critical for IBM's business, leading to a significant drop in IBM's stock by over 13%, marking its largest single-day decline since 2000 [2] - The introduction of "Claude Code Security" by Anthropic, which scans for security vulnerabilities, has also negatively impacted stock prices of various cybersecurity companies [2] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy showed signs of cooling, with a projected annualized quarterly growth rate of 1.4% for Q4 2025, attributed to tariff policies and government shutdowns [4] - Despite a 2.2% overall growth in 2025, the economic situation appears unstable, with a 45% chance of recession predicted due to slow job growth and rising consumer defaults [5]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 薛钧元 粕类市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，节前2月13日收盘豆粕2605合约2800元/吨，环比上涨65元/吨，涨幅2.38%；2月13日收盘菜 粕2605合约2309元/吨，环比上涨70元/吨，涨幅3.13%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3170元/吨， 环比持平，现货基差M05+370，环比下降65；江苏地区豆粕现货价格3070元/吨，环比上涨40元/吨，现 货基差M05+270，环比下跌25；广东地区豆粕现货价格3060元/吨，环比上涨50元/吨，现货基差 M05+260，环比下跌15。福建地区菜粕现货价格2420元/吨，环比上涨10元/吨，现货基差M05+111，环 比下跌60。 豆粕：国际方面，巴西商贸部表示，截止2026年2月第2周，累计装出大豆269.3万吨，去年2月为642.8万 吨。日均装运量为26.9万吨，较去年2月的32.1万吨减少16.22%。布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所称，截至2 月18日当周目前75%的大豆作物评级正常至良好，高于一周前的68%，去年同期68%；66%的种植区水 分条件适宜到最佳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector has experienced a significant surge, driven by geopolitical risks and favorable macroeconomic conditions, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metals stocks saw substantial gains, with notable increases such as Xiaocheng Technology rising over 13%, Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit, and Sichuan Gold increasing by over 9% [1]. - Spot gold prices broke above $5200 per ounce for the first time since January 30, marking a nearly 2% increase within the day [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's main silver contract rose by 13%, reaching 22,366 yuan per kilogram [1]. Group 2: Price Forecasts - UBS has raised its gold price target to $6200 per ounce, citing ongoing geopolitical risks and a favorable macro environment as key drivers for rising gold prices [2]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish mid-term outlook on gold, predicting prices will gradually rise to $5400 per ounce by the end of 2026, despite a temporary slowdown in central bank gold purchases [2]. Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - U.S. economic and employment data have shown positive performance, but concerns about inflation have delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. - Geopolitical tensions, including military threats against Iran and ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Russia, have heightened demand for safe-haven assets [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies, particularly following a Supreme Court ruling against certain tariffs, has contributed to market volatility and increased interest in precious metals [3]. Group 4: Market Trends During Holidays - During the Spring Festival, the precious metals market experienced two phases: initial declines due to expectations of delayed interest rate cuts, followed by a recovery driven by geopolitical tensions [4]. - The U.S. military's deployment in the Middle East and disappointing economic data have combined to create a renewed demand for gold and silver, pushing prices higher towards the end of the holiday period [4].

行情回顾： 国际黄金周一（2月23日）大幅收涨，开盘价5109.38美元/盎司，最高价5204.99美元/盎司，最低价5099.20美元/ 盎司，收盘价5196.37美元/盎司。 消息面： 美国众议院议长约翰逊就1340亿美元关税退税问题表态称，在最高法院作出裁决后，将由白宫决定是否退还 1340亿美元关税，他称这种情况"史无前例"，没有先例可循。他指出，政府方面"有充分理由"，而众议院目前 尚未介入此事。目前民主党人正在推动立法，其中部分人建议直接发放退税支票。 美联储理事沃勒周一表示，如果即将公布的2月份就业数据显示，美国劳动力市场继2025年表现疲软后"转向更 为稳固的状态"，那么他对在美联储3月会议上维持利率不变持开放态度。1月份新增就业岗位意外强劲，达到 13万个，属于"超预期上行"，如果这一态势在2月份得以延续，"我对适宜货币政策的看法可能会倾向于在即将 召开的会议上暂停行动"。 "但如果1月份就业市场的利好消息被修正或在2月份消失，这将支持我在联邦公开 市场委员会（FOMC）上次会议上的立场，即政策利率下调25个基点是合适的，应该在3月份的会议上降 息，"沃勒表示，他认为当前通胀走高在很大程度上 ...

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Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Increase" rating for the retail and wholesale trade industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by over 15% [5]. Core Insights - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were illegal, leading to a proposed 5% reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods through the implementation of Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 [2][5]. - The Section 122 tariffs will have a broad exemption list, including critical minerals, energy products, certain agricultural products, pharmaceuticals, and vehicles, ensuring limited scope for the tariffs [4]. - The new tariffs will apply a uniform global rate of up to 15%, eliminating previous country-specific differences, thus impacting most trade partners similarly [4]. Summary by Sections Legal Context - The Supreme Court's decision on February 20, 2026, overturned the previous tariffs under IEEPA, stating that the power to impose taxes lies with Congress, not the President [5]. - The new tariffs under Section 122 are set to be temporary, with a maximum duration of 150 days unless extended by Congress [5]. Tariff Structure - The current tariff structure on Chinese goods includes four categories: 301 tariffs (7.5%-25%), 232 tariffs (25-50%), the new 122 tariffs (15%), and special taxes (e.g., fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs totaling 20%) [5]. - The ruling results in a net reduction of approximately 5% in tariffs on Chinese goods, alleviating some pressure on trade [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Anker Innovations, Ugreen Technology, Saiwei Times, Sumida, Jihong Co., and Zhiou Technology, all rated for "Increase" [5][6].

Group 1: IEEPA Tariff Legal Ruling - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA tariffs are illegal, primarily due to violations of the clear authorization principle and significant issues principle [9] - The tariffs affected include a 20% tariff on fentanyl from China, 25% on Canada and Mexico, and global equivalent tariffs [9] - The likelihood of full refunds for the tariffs is low, but partial refunds are more probable, depending on how lower courts handle the relief scope [9] Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry Insights - The overall sales volume in the food and beverage industry during the 2026 Spring Festival decreased by 10%-20%, slightly better than market expectations [10] - High-end liquor brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showed significant sales growth, with Moutai's sales expected to increase by over 30% year-on-year [12] - The industry is entering a significant destocking phase, with first-tier brands' inventory levels notably lower than the previous year [12] Group 3: Health and Nutrition Industry Trends - The health and nutrition sector is experiencing structural growth, with the market size reaching over 100 billion yuan, significantly outpacing traditional food sectors [15] - The company West Health is transitioning from agency operations to a multi-brand strategy, establishing itself as a leader in the sports nutrition and functional food segments [11] - Revenue and profit for West Health are on a stable growth trajectory, with net profit increasing from 94 million yuan in 2023 to 149 million yuan in 2025 [13] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry Developments - Huahong Semiconductor reported a revenue of $659.9 million for Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, with a gross margin of 13% [19] - The company is expanding its production capacity, with a focus on enhancing its 12-inch wafer production capabilities through the acquisition of Huali Microelectronics [19] - The demand for embedded non-volatile memory products is increasing, driven by the rise in MCU and smart card needs [19] Group 5: Shipping and Transportation Sector - The VLCC freight rates surged by 24% to $146,385 per day during the Spring Festival, indicating strong demand in the oil shipping market [20] - The shipping market is expected to continue its upward trend, with tight capacity and strong demand forecasts for March [20] - The overall energy chain valuation is rising, with long-term cycles influencing high vessel utilization rates [20]

Group 1: Market Overview - LME copper prices fell by $95.5, or 0.74%, closing at $12,868.50 per ton, after reaching a one-week high of $13,050 [1] - Despite a 3% rebound over the past four trading days, copper prices remain significantly below the historical peak of $14,527.50 set on January 29 [1] Group 2: Inventory and Demand - LME copper inventory increased by 6,675 tons, or 2.84%, reaching 241,825 tons, the highest level since March 2025, with a 70% surge year-to-date [3] - The increase in inventory outside the U.S. suggests potential weakness in demand, although it remains unclear whether this is due to a shift from off-exchange warehouses or overall demand softness [3] Group 3: U.S. Tariff Uncertainty - The U.S. Supreme Court overturned a tariff order from former President Trump, leading to increased uncertainty in the metals, dollar, and stock markets [3] - Trump announced plans to raise the import tariff on global goods from 10% to 15%, with new legal tariffs to be determined in the coming months [3] Group 4: Future Supply Predictions - JPMorgan forecasts a supply deficit of 130,000 tons in the copper market by 2026, with expectations of a mild surplus in 2027 due to increased copper scrap supply and recovery of major mines [4] - The projected copper price for Q2 2026 is $13,500 per ton, decreasing to $13,000 per ton in Q3 2026 [4] Group 5: Market Sentiment - Traders are awaiting the resumption of trading on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with market sentiment hinging on potential additional domestic demand from China [5]

新华财经纽约2月23日电（记者刘亚南）由于市场担忧美国与贸易伙伴关税紧张继续和投资者继续担忧 人工智能对实体经济的冲击，纽约股市三大股指23日低开低走，早盘显著下跌，随后窄幅盘整，收盘时 纽约股市三大股指均显著下跌。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌821.91点，收于48804.06点，跌幅为1.66%；标 准普尔500种股票指数下跌71.76点，收于6837.75点，跌幅为1.04%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌258.80点， 收于22627.27点，跌幅为1.13%。 特朗普23日在社交媒体上发文表示，任何想在美国最高法院关税裁决上"玩游戏"的国家尤其是长时间占 美国便宜的国家将会面临比其最近所同意关税高得多的关税。 特朗普说，作为总统，自己加征关税并不必然要获得国会的同意。这已经在很久以前就以多种方式存 在。 美国兰兹伯格贝内特私人财富管理公司（Landsberg Bennett）首席投资官迈克尔·兰兹伯格（Michael Landsberg）表示，一大问题是在特朗普最新公布关税150天窗口期后经济领域会发生什么。如果这一关 税政策延续下去，针对这一关税措施的诉讼可能今年晚些时候再次回到美国 ...