原木周报： 成本支撑下移 ，到港增幅较大 20251223 弘业金融研究院 数据来源：钢联、弘业金融研究院 姜周曦琳 从业资格号：F03114700 投资咨询号：Z0022394 原木产业数据 ➢ 供应： 数据来源：钢联、弘业金融研究院 ➢ 期现货： • 现货端，日照港3.9米中A辐射松原木740元/方，较上期下跌；本周太仓港4米中A辐射松原木720元/方，较上期下跌。整体来看，原木现货价 格偏弱运行，个别规格下降后企稳。 • 期货端，截至12月23日收盘，原木主力2603报收770元/方，低位震荡。 • 2025/12/13-12/19，新西兰12港原木离港发运共计10船39万方，环比减少4船14万方。其中，新西兰直发中国7船26万方，环比减少4船15万 方。近期中国港口到港量增幅较大，新西兰发运周环比走弱，海外供应减量或于1月中下旬体现。 • 本周13港原木预计到港量：2025年12月22日-12月28日，中国13港新西兰原木预到船9条，较上周减少6条，周环比减少40%；到港总量约30.9 万方，较上周减少21.5万方，周环比减少41%。 • 上周13港原木实际到港量：2025年11月17日-11月23日 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that both domestic and foreign capital are expected to drive a significant influx of funds into the A-share and Hong Kong markets by 2026, reflecting improved expectations for capital flow and systemic opportunities in China's capital markets due to various factors [1] Group 2 - Domestic capital is poised for growth as policy measures have been implemented to enhance asset allocation potential, with insurance funds and ETFs leading the market recovery [2] - The Financial Regulatory Authority has raised the equity asset allocation limits for insurance funds, facilitating increased investment in A-shares [2] - The reduction of risk factors for certain indices has lowered capital requirements for insurance investments, encouraging long-term holdings in A-shares [2] Group 3 - Multiple institutions are optimistic about the funding situation in A-shares by 2026, with projections indicating that public funds, insurance capital, foreign investment, and leveraged funds could contribute trillions in incremental capital [3] - Estimates suggest that potential incremental capital for the A-share market could range from 6 trillion to 9.6 trillion yuan by 2026, with various segments such as private equity and ETFs expected to contribute significantly [4] Group 4 - Foreign capital is also preparing for entry, with expectations of a global interest rate cut cycle that may lead to a rotation of funds into emerging markets like China [5] - The A-share market is seen as attractive due to its size and improving fundamentals, with expectations of increased foreign investment as the Chinese economy shows signs of recovery [5] Group 5 - The manufacturing sector in China is strengthening, with advancements in key technologies and improvements in the healthcare industry, indicating long-term value in high-end manufacturing and biotech sectors [6] - The Chinese stock market remains undervalued compared to global peers, suggesting potential for upward adjustments in valuations [6] Group 6 - Long-term capital inflows are anticipated, with projections indicating that asset reallocation by residents could bring an additional 5.4 trillion to 12 trillion yuan to the A-share market by 2030 [7] - Insurance funds are steadily increasing their holdings in stocks and funds, with expectations of significant growth in the coming quarters [7] Group 7 - There are signs of a gradual recovery in foreign capital inflows into the Chinese market, with long-term investors like pension funds and sovereign wealth funds increasingly viewing China as a key investment opportunity [8] - These long-term funds typically adopt a gradual investment approach, focusing on thorough market research and due diligence before making substantial allocations [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for rebar and hot-rolled coil is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In a neutral scenario, the terminal demand for steel in 2026 is expected to be roughly flat year-on-year. Domestic demand will see limited changes, while external demand will remain a significant driver. The supply-side regulation, especially capacity reduction, will be a long-term task. Steel prices may gradually bottom out through oscillations in 2026, but the upward space and elasticity are still insufficient. The main operating ranges for rebar and hot-rolled coil主力 contracts are estimated to be 2950 - 3400 yuan/ton and 3050 - 3550 yuan/ton respectively. There are still risks of market decline in the first half of the year [1][3][143] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Steel Market Review: Center of Gravity Moved Down, Narrow Oscillation - In 2025, steel prices showed a narrow oscillation pattern with a reduced fluctuation range and significantly lower volatility compared to the previous two years. The price center of gravity declined, but the downward trend was not smooth. In the first half of the year, steel prices oscillated downward due to factors such as US reciprocal tariffs and a significant weakening of coal and coke costs. Starting from late June, steel prices rebounded rapidly in a short period driven by low inventory support and "anti-involution" policy expectations. However, due to the suppression of real demand and the weakening of export orders, the price was under obvious upward pressure. After late July, steel prices gradually entered a stage of oscillatory decline, and the entire fourth quarter was almost in a state of narrow-range fluctuation [16] - The core reasons for the decline in volatility are twofold: 1) The increase in the weight of external demand led to a significant compression of the upward and downward space of steel prices. The increase in external demand and manufacturing demand provided a more solid cost support, and exports also provided a more obvious bottom support when domestic steel prices fell. However, when domestic prices rose to a level where export order-taking willingness weakened, it also formed an obvious upward pressure. 2) The overall supply-demand expectation gap in the market was not prominent. Although the reciprocal tariffs and "anti-involution" policies in the second and third quarters led to obvious changes in market expectations, they had limited impact on real supply and demand, making it difficult for the market to continuously trade on the changes at the expectation level [17] 3.2 Demand: Domestic Demand Calm, External Demand Still Supportive 3.2.1 Domestic Incremental Policy Expectations Insufficient, Supply-side Policies May Strengthen - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference indicated that with the decline of external risks, the need to introduce incremental policies to hedge against the decline of external demand has decreased. The conference more clearly pointed out the contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand" in the domestic market and emphasized "optimizing supply", suggesting that policies will strengthen efforts on the supply side in 2026 and significantly speed up the construction of a unified national market [31] - In terms of fiscal and monetary policies, the 2026 fiscal policy and infrastructure investment will be relatively conservative. Monetary policy will focus on promoting a moderate rebound in inflation. The policy on "two new" and "two important" areas will shift from "strengthening" to "optimizing", and the real estate market will continue the tone of "supporting without boosting" [32] 3.2.2 Building Material Demand Hard to Improve, Focus on Fund Allocation Rhythm - In 2025, the real estate demand continued to be weak, and the decline in sales widened again. In 2026, the decline in real estate sales may continue, and the front-end investment is expected to continue to decline significantly, which will continue to drag down the steel demand [36][37] - In 2026, the expectation for infrastructure demand is not optimistic. In 2025, the fixed asset investment growth rate of traditional infrastructure declined significantly, mainly due to tight funds. In 2026, the fiscal policy will focus on structural optimization, and the scale of investment in traditional infrastructure is expected to be limited [46][47] 3.2.3 Manufacturing Demand Maintains Resilience, but Growth Rate Still at Risk of Decline - In 2025, the strong manufacturing demand was an important factor supporting the terminal demand for steel. The manufacturing PMI showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The "two new" related replacement demand and strong exports were important factors supporting the steel demand in the manufacturing industry. However, there were no obvious signs of entering the replenishment cycle [59] - In 2026, the steel demand in the manufacturing industry is expected to continue to grow, but the overall growth rate may decline significantly compared to 2025. The "two new" policies will focus on optimization, and the incremental funds are not clear. The demand driven by "replacing the old with the new" may face problems such as demand front-loading and marginal decline in subsidy effects [59] - In 2026, the external demand for manufacturing terminals is expected to remain strong. In 2025, despite the impact of Sino-US trade frictions, the exports of core manufacturing terminal products continued to rise. With the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and the increase in demand from emerging markets, indirect exports are expected to continue to be an important driving force for steel demand in 2026 [73] 3.2.4 Direct Exports: Impact of License System to be Observed, Medium and Long-term Outlook Depends on Overseas Demand - Since January 1, 2026, the export license management system for some steel products will be implemented, which may impose certain policy constraints on the compliance of export entities, the variety structure, and quality of exported steel. However, the specific implementation scale and license issuance situation still need to be observed [88] - In 2025, the direct exports of steel and semi-finished products showed an obvious characteristic of "trading volume at the expense of price", and the net export volume is expected to reach about 125 million tons. The export variety and destination structures have changed significantly. Overseas trade frictions continue to increase, and the pressure from EU carbon tariffs and overseas anti-dumping in 2026 remains high [89][90] - In the medium and long term, the key factors affecting steel exports are the strength of overseas demand and the speed of overseas steel supply increase. Based on the forecast of the World Steel Association, the global crude steel demand will continue to increase slightly by about 1% in 2026. Although the overall scale of steel exports in 2026 is not expected to be pessimistic, the export in the first half of the year may be suppressed if the regional price difference cannot be widened [105] 3.3 Supply: "Anti-involution" Policy Still Unclear, Cost-based Pricing Pattern Remains 3.3.1 Implementation of Steel Industry "Anti-involution" Expected to be a Long-term Process - The market has high expectations for the "anti-involution" policy in the steel industry, mainly due to the long-term low profitability of the steel industry and the need to stabilize the prices of upstream and midstream products in the black industry chain to prevent the decline of PPI [110] - The implementation of supply-side policies in the steel industry is difficult to be as rapid and drastic as in the 2016 cycle. Possible directions for capacity reduction in the future include the full completion of ultra-low emission transformation and the verification of steel production capacity and overproduction control similar to that in the coal industry. However, there are still many uncertainties and difficulties in implementation [111][112] - In 2026, the market is expected to trade the change in production volume from a more market-oriented rather than administrative perspective. The decline in production volume is more likely to be due to terminal demand factors, and the improvement of steel mill profits requires substantial capacity compression [113] 3.3.2 Driving Force for Steel Mill Profit Improvement Still Depends on Capacity Reduction - Under the neutral scenario, the profit improvement space for steel products in 2026 will still be limited, and the industry will generally remain around the break-even point. In 2025, the profit of steel mills showed a pattern of initial improvement and then compression, and the electric furnace was in a loss state for most of the time [121] - In 2026, it is still difficult to provide profits for all production capacities. The marginal supply will mostly be in a loss state, and the gross profit of blast furnaces in the low-cost area will be difficult to break through the 200 yuan/ton range. The substantial reduction of production capacity is the key to breaking through the profit center and space [122] 3.3.3 Steel Price Valuation Still Anchored to Cost, Market Contradiction Focuses on Coils - In 2026, the overall steel price valuation is expected to continue to be anchored to the cost. The increase in iron ore supply is at risk, but the cost center may not move down significantly. The coking coal price is unlikely to fall below the 2025 low. The steel price is expected to be difficult to fall below the 2025 low without a significant weakening of demand. The upward movement of steel prices will be restricted by the inability to provide profits for all production capacities and the export order situation [132] - For the steel price valuation to break through upward in 2026, two conditions are required: the substantial implementation of the "anti-involution" policy in the domestic steel industry and the improvement of real demand driven by overseas loose monetary and fiscal policies with smooth price and cost transmission [132] - Since the second half of 2024, the actual supply of building materials has decreased significantly, and the rebar inventory level has dropped significantly. In 2026, this situation is expected to continue, and rebar may be in a relatively tight state periodically. Currently, the inventory of coils and non-five major varieties is relatively high and the de-stocking is slow. Therefore, attention should be paid to the potential supply pressure and contradiction of coils and non-five major steel products in 2026 [133][140] 3.4 2026 Steel Supply and Demand Outlook and Market Trading Logic - Under the neutral scenario, the supply and demand contradiction in the steel market in 2026 is still not prominent. The accelerated release of overseas liquidity is one of the most important macro logics, which is expected to push up inflation, but the boost to real demand and the smoothness of price transmission need to be observed. The domestic demand will see limited substantial changes, and the supply-side regulation related to "anti-involution" will be a relatively long-term task. The steel price may gradually bottom out through oscillations in 2026, but the upward space and elasticity are still insufficient [143] - In the first half of 2026, the market still faces downward risks. The actual implementation of the steel export license management system is yet to be confirmed, and the real demand in spring is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the inventory risk in spring. In the second half of 2026, the probability of inflation rising and domestic incremental policy implementation will increase, and the "anti-involution" policy path may become clearer, which may drive up the steel price and profit [144]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the black industry chain was under pressure due to the pattern of "weak supply and demand", with the price center further moving down. In 2026, the pattern of "decreasing supply and weak demand" for steel is expected to continue, but the supply - demand gap may narrow marginally under policy guidance. The iron ore market is expected to enter a new stage of "continuous supply expansion and differentiated demand structure" [1][78][80]. - The "anti - involution" policy and supply - side structural optimization continued to exert force in 2025, accelerating supply contraction. In 2026, the policy direction of "controlling the total amount and optimizing the structure" remains unchanged for steel supply [1][78][80]. - The demand side shows significant differentiation and weakness. Real estate investment continued to decline, infrastructure investment growth slowed down significantly, and although steel exports provided some resilience, they were difficult to fully offset the decline in domestic demand [1][78]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review: Weak Supply and Demand, Oscillating Downward - In 2025, black - series commodities continued the trend of oversupply and weak oscillation, with coking coal falling 5.94% and coke dropping 12.67%, iron ore's decline narrowing to 2.12%, and rebar falling 5.51%. The overall trend can be divided into four stages: oscillating upward from early January to late February, moving down from early March to late May, slowly rebounding from early June to early August, and oscillating downward from early August onwards [3][4]. 3.2 Steel Supply: Environmental Restrictions, Continuous Decline 3.2.1 Global Supply: Structurally Differentiated Economic Recovery, Production Expected to Continue Contracting - In the first 10 months of 2025, global crude steel production decreased year - on - year. China's crude steel production declined, while India's increased significantly, and the United States, Turkey and other countries also showed an upward trend. In 2026, global crude steel production is expected to continue a slight downward trend [10]. - In 2026, China's crude steel supply is expected to remain within 1 billion tons. India is expected to maintain an increasing trend, and the production of countries like Turkey is expected to continue growing, but it is difficult to fully make up for the reduction in China's production [1][13]. 3.2.2 Domestic Supply: Continuous Reduction due to Environmental Restrictions - Since 2021, China has implemented policies to control steel production capacity. In 2025, relevant policies further tightened the control of new production capacity. From January to October 2025, China's crude steel production was 817.41 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.56%. It is expected that the annual production in 2025 will be in the range of 970 - 980 million tons, a decrease of about 2.5% - 3.5% compared with 2024 [16]. - In 2026, under the pressure of macro - policies and weak demand, China's crude steel production is expected to continue to contract [20]. 3.3 Steel Demand: Real Estate Continues to Weaken, Infrastructure Investment Growth Slows Down 3.3.1 Limited Support from Real Estate Policies, Difficult to Change the Weak Reality - In 2025, China introduced a series of real estate support policies, but the real estate market was still in a deep - adjustment period. From January to October, real estate development investment decreased by 14.77%, new housing construction area decreased by 19.87%, and the completion area decreased by 16.99%. In 2026, the real estate market will continue to be under pressure [25][30][32]. 3.3.2 Steel Exports Reach a New High in Total, but Structural Contradictions are Prominent - In 2025, China's steel exports maintained a high level in quantity, but the average export price continued to decline, and the product structure was continuously optimized. The exports to "Belt and Road" countries showed strong growth. Indirect exports of electromechanical products, automobiles (especially new - energy vehicles) were relatively optimistic, while home - appliance exports showed a downward trend [34][36][40]. 3.3.3 Investment: Manufacturing Remains Stable - In the first 10 months of 2025, China's fixed - asset investment was under pressure, but manufacturing investment remained resilient. In 2026, the manufacturing PMI is expected to improve marginally. Infrastructure investment growth slowed down in 2025, and in 2026, infrastructure construction investment will continue to follow the active fiscal policy orientation [42][46][53]. 3.4 Iron Ore: Loose Supply, Weakening Demand 3.4.1 Supply: Loose Overseas Ore Pattern, Limited Increment of Domestic Ore - In 2025, the production of the four major iron - ore mines increased slightly in the first three quarters. It is estimated that the annual production in 2025 will increase by more than 4% compared with 2024. The Simandou project started shipping, which will have a profound impact on the market pattern. In 2026, Vale and Rio Tinto plan to expand production capacity [57][61][62]. - In 2025, China's iron - ore production decreased year - on - year. From January to November, the import volume increased by 1.4%, and the port inventory reached a high level. In 2026, domestic production is expected to decline slightly, and the import dependence will remain high [69][71][72]. 3.4.2 Demand: Weak Domestic Demand, Weakening Export Support - In 2025, domestic demand for iron ore was weak, and the direct export growth of iron ore slowed down. In 2026, China's iron - ore demand is expected to continue the pattern of structural differentiation, with the overall pig - iron output slightly falling and steel exports being the core support [75]. - In 2026, the iron - ore market will enter a new stage of long - term supply relaxation. The price is expected to be under long - term downward pressure, and the market trading logic will shift from "quantity increase" to the game of "ore quality" and "production cost" [76]. 3.5 Summary and Outlook - In 2025, the black industry chain was under pressure, with supply contracting and demand weakening. The iron - ore market shifted from "tight balance" to "loose" [78][79]. - In 2026, the rebar price is expected to show an "M" - shaped oscillation, with the price center in the range of 3000 - 3500 yuan/ton. The iron - ore import price center is expected to be maintained in the range of 90 - 100 US dollars/ton [80][81].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the 10-year government bond yield exhibited an "N" shaped trend in 2025, fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.9%, primarily due to the central bank's liquidity tightening and inflation expectations [4][10][17] - The domestic economy in 2025 is characterized by strong volume but weak prices, with external demand stronger than internal demand, leading to an expected GDP growth of 5% [4][27] - The report highlights that the export growth rate is projected to be around 6.0%, significantly above market expectations, supported by improved Sino-US trade relations and diversification of Chinese enterprises [4][27] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the economy is expected to stabilize and gradually emerge from deflation, with a cautious approach to overall policy easing [5][39] - The report anticipates that the fiscal policy will remain proactive, with a budget deficit rate potentially maintained at 4% and an increase in local government special bond issuance [5][52] - Monetary policy is expected to remain cautiously accommodative, with potential interest rate cuts of 10-20 basis points and a possible reserve requirement ratio reduction [5][57] Group 3 - The investment strategy suggests a neutral fluctuation in interest rates, with a focus on opportunities for reallocation during market corrections [6][39] - The report notes that the bond market may experience limited upward and downward movement in yields, with the fluctuation range expected to be between 1.60% and 2.0% [6][39] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of monitoring changes in bank liabilities, particularly as a peak in fixed deposit maturities approaches in 2026 [6][39]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends Impacting China's Economy in 2026 - The external environment is expected to stabilize from high volatility, with trade policy uncertainty likely past its peak and geopolitical relations moving towards orderly confrontation [1][11][12] - The growth momentum is anticipated to experience a historic shift, with the "three new economies" (new industries, new business formats, new models) expected to surpass the real estate economy in GDP contribution for the first time [1][23][24] - Inflation is projected to rise moderately from around -1% to near 0%, supported by consumption stimulus and low base effects [1][33][36] - The financial cycle is expected to continue its downward trend, with significant risk prevention tasks remaining [1][38][39] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The global economy is forecasted to enter a "persistent low growth" phase in 2026, with inflation risks still present despite a moderate decline [2][51][52] - Domestic nominal GDP is expected to grow around 5%, with real GDP growth also projected at approximately 5% [3][40] - Consumption is anticipated to lead the recovery, with retail sales expected to grow by about 4.5% [3][40] - Investment is expected to stabilize, with infrastructure investment projected to grow moderately due to policy support [3][40] - Exports are expected to grow between 3-5%, facing both opportunities and challenges [4][40] Group 3: Policy Outlook - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a stable overall tone, with a focus on optimizing structure and reform measures [5][6] - Monetary policy may see slight reductions in interest rates and reserve requirements, with a focus on fiscal coordination [6][39] Group 4: Asset Allocation Outlook - The market is expected to be in a complex transition period, with a defensive strategy recommended [7][10] - The stock market is likely to shift from valuation-driven to profit-driven, with a focus on technology, high-quality overseas expansion, and sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies [7][10] - The bond market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, while commodity markets will continue to show structural differentiation [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - The global competitiveness of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies is continuously improving, with a focus on innovation in treatment areas and technology platforms [1] Group 1: Treatment Areas - The commercial health insurance premium scale has significant growth potential and is expected to become a new source of medical payment [1] - Fast-growing treatment areas include cutting-edge technologies such as GLP-1, ADC, and bispecific antibodies [1] - In addition to existing popular fields like oncology and immunology, potential treatment areas to watch include metabolic diseases (e.g., weight loss), chronic diseases (e.g., hypertension, hyperlipidemia), and central nervous system disorders (e.g., Alzheimer's, Parkinson's) [1] Group 2: Technology Platforms - Potential technology platforms to focus on include small nucleic acid drugs, radioactive drugs (RDC), and CAR-T therapies [1] Group 3: Medical Device Industry - The medical device industry is currently under pressure due to policy impacts, but the fundamentals are expected to improve with the ongoing implementation of anti-involution policies, clearing of centralized procurement, and innovation upgrades by companies along with international business expansion [1] Group 4: Investment Products - The Guotai Innovation Pharmaceutical ETF (159377) tracks the Innovation Pharmaceutical Index (399275), which has a daily price fluctuation limit of 20% [1] - This index focuses on the innovative biopharmaceutical sector, selecting listed company securities involved in biopharmaceuticals, chemical pharmaceuticals, and medical services to reflect the overall performance of pharmaceutical companies with high R&D investment and innovation capabilities, leaning towards high-tech and growth styles [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish on glass (FG) and soda ash (SA) [1] 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, the demand for glass and soda ash was weak, and the supply was high, leading to a continuous decline in prices and a compression of industrial profits. In 2026, the weak demand will continue to suppress the upward drive of prices, but the supply elasticity will increase significantly under the influence of profit compression and policies. The fundamentals of glass and soda ash will remain loose, and prices may be more affected by supply changes [3][85][86] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Glass - In 2025, glass prices were under pressure and continued to decline. The annual average price of 5mm glass in the Shahe area was about 1,100 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21.4%. The price fluctuations were mainly divided into three stages: continuous decline from the beginning of the year to the end of June, a rise and then a fall in the third quarter, and a continued decline under pressure in the fourth quarter. The futures price showed a contango structure, and the basis and inter - month spreads had obvious characteristics. The glass factory's profit was under pressure and fluctuated at a low level [4][7][14] 3.1.2 Soda Ash - In 2025, the supply of soda ash was strong and the demand was weak, and the price center of gravity continued to move down. The annual average price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area was about 1,286 yuan, a decrease of 32.2% compared with 2024. The price fluctuations mainly went through four stages: a slight rise before and after the Spring Festival, a sharp decline in the second quarter, a rise and then a fall in the third quarter, and a continued decline and a new low in the fourth quarter. The basis and spreads fluctuated slightly, and the annual structure was in backwardation. The alkali factory's profit was under pressure and decreased [24][28][32] 3.2 Glass Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Analysis - In 2025, the glass supply was mainly stable, with a slight increase followed by a decline. The production profit was under pressure, and the industry clearing was slow. In 2026, the glass factory's production profit will continue to be under pressure, and the industry may accelerate the clearing. The daily melting volume and start - up rate are expected to decline, but the reduction may still be insufficient [42][43] 3.2.2 Demand Analysis - In 2025, the glass demand was weak, with a slight improvement in stages. Real estate demand continued to decline, while manufacturing demand was resilient. In 2026, the overall demand will remain weakly stable, with real estate demand still under pressure and manufacturing demand maintaining a certain degree of support. The inventory is expected to remain at a high level and fluctuate [53][54][62] 3.3 Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply Analysis - In 2025, the soda ash supply was at a high level, and the new production capacity was put into operation. In 2026, the production capacity expansion will slow down, and the production capacity will start to clear in the medium and long term. The supply elasticity of alkali factories is relatively strong, and the price will continue to fluctuate greatly due to supply disturbances [64] 3.3.2 Demand Analysis - In 2025, the demand for soda ash was weakly stable, with a downward trend. The demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass was weak, while the demand for light soda ash was relatively good. In 2026, the demand for soda ash will still be an important driving factor. The demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass is expected to weaken, but the overall demand still has strong resilience [74][75][84] 3.4 Summary and Outlook - In 2025, the downstream demand for glass and soda ash was weak, and the supply was high, resulting in an imbalance in fundamentals and a continuous decline in prices. In 2026, the weak demand will continue to suppress the upward space of glass and soda ash prices, and the industrial profits will continue to be under pressure. The prices may be more affected by supply changes, and the overall fluctuation range is limited [85][86]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides trend judgments and investment suggestions for various futures products based on fundamental and quantitative indicators, and summarizes macro - financial news and market conditions of different industries. It analyzes the supply - demand relationship, price trends, and influencing factors of each product, and gives corresponding trading strategies [2][7][9][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental - based Trend Judgment - **Trend空头**: Carbonate lithium [2] - **Oscillating偏空**: Synthetic rubber, lead, etc. [2] - **Oscillating**: Ethylene glycol, zinc, etc. [2] - **Oscillating偏多**: Pulp, short - fiber, etc. [2] 2. Quantitative Indicator - based Trend Judgment - **偏空**: Zhengzhou cotton, PTA, etc. [7] - **Oscillating**: Rebar, plastic, etc. [7] - **偏多**: Rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, etc. [7] 3. Macro - news - **Regulatory actions**: The National Internet Information Office and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have cracked down on false information in the capital market, and punished accounts spreading rumors and illegally recommending stocks [9]. - **Stock market**: Pingtan Development's stock price fluctuated greatly on December 19th [9]. - **International central bank policies**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, and the yield of 10 - year Japanese government bonds reached a 26 - year high [9]. - **Domestic policies**: The State Council Executive Meeting arranged the implementation of the decisions of the Central Economic Work Conference, and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a draft regulation on the asset - liability management of insurance companies [10]. - **Corporate news**: ByteDance is expected to achieve a record profit of $50 billion in 2025, with its annual revenue expected to increase by over 20%. It is also promoting cooperation with hardware manufacturers on AI mobile phones [10]. 4. Macro - finance - **Stock index futures**: Pay attention to the continuity and structure of liquidity repair. If realized, the index may strengthen. A - shares are oscillating higher, and it is necessary to pay attention to the economic data from January to February next year and the rhythm of macro - policy implementation [14]. - **Treasury bond futures**: Short - and medium - term bonds may oscillate strongly, but the odds are more important than the direction. The probability of the central bank cutting interest rates next week is relatively low [15]. 5. Black Industry - **Coking coal and coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and rise in the short term, but the potential negative feedback risk still restricts the price increase. The supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, and the downstream replenishment is slow [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: It is recommended to close out previous long positions and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the short term. The fundamental logic of manganese silicon remains unchanged [18]. 6. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Zinc**: After the macro - positive factors fade, the price is expected to oscillate lower. It is recommended to hold short positions. The short - term market will focus on overseas macro and domestic supply changes [22]. - **Lead**: It is recommended to continue holding previous short positions. The production of electrolytic lead may decline slightly this week [23]. - **Carbonate lithium**: The short - term demand is weakening, and there may be a short - term correction, but it will rise in the long - term and operate in a wide - range oscillation [24]. - **Industrial silicon and polysilicon**: Industrial silicon may have some valuation repair opportunities, and polysilicon is expected to be strong under the anti - involution policy. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities on dips [25][26]. 7. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The price of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [28]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is still bearish. It is recommended to wait and see, and be cautious when short - selling at low prices [30]. - **Eggs**: The spot price may rise before the Spring Festival, but the increase may be limited. The contracts after the Spring Festival are under pressure, and the far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a decline in inventory [32]. - **Apples**: The futures price may oscillate. The sales in the production and sales areas are slow, and the price of high - quality goods is firm [34]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot price changes in the production area. It is recommended to short - sell the far - month contracts at high prices or look for reverse - spread opportunities [35]. - **Red dates**: Pay close attention to the market performance during the peak consumption season, and currently maintain an oscillating view [36]. - **Pigs**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short - sell the near - month contracts at high prices [38]. 8. Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude oil**: The short - term market focuses on geopolitical factors, but the supply surplus is still the main trading line [39]. - **Fuel oil**: The price will follow the oil price, and the short - term focus is on geopolitical impacts [40]. - **Plastic**: Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly due to large supply pressure and weak downstream demand [41]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to stop profiting on the ru - nr spread strategy in the short term and try short - buying on dips [42]. - **Synthetic rubber**: Short - sell at high prices in the short term, and be cautious when chasing short positions on sharp drops [43]. - **Methanol**: The short - term may have some support, and the far - month contracts can be considered for a slightly long - biased allocation after the inventory is smoothly reduced [44]. - **Caustic soda**: Avoid going long on the near - month contracts, and hold long positions on the main contract dynamically [45]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [46]. - **Polyester industry chain**: Consider going long on dips, and pay attention to the positive spread opportunities of PX and PTA 5 - 9 contracts [47]. - **Liquefied petroleum gas**: The price may oscillate, with support but limited upward momentum [48]. - **Pulp**: Do not chase long positions in the short term. Consider going long on dips if the spot price is stable [49]. - **Log**: The fundamentals are expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the price may oscillate [49]. - **Urea**: Maintain an oscillating view and wait to observe the start of the spot market after the end of environmental protection restrictions [51].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [3] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [3] - 2 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [3] - 5 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [3] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Consolidating [3] - Gold: Oscillating with a bullish bias [3] - Silver: Oscillating with a bullish bias [3] - Logs: Rebounding from the bottom [4] - Pulp: Oscillating [4] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [4] - Soybean oil: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Palm oil: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Live pigs: Bullish - biased [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [8] - PX: Widely oscillating [9] - PTA: Widely oscillating [9] - MEG: Oscillating [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The iron ore market is characterized by "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation" in 2026, and the implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is supported by capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies, but the steel export policy has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives [2]. - The steel market has seen a rebound due to improved sentiment and short - term fundamentals, but the implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of export expectations and attention to production control policies [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand contradiction due to weakening demand and insufficient supply contraction, and attention should be paid to macro and production line cold - repair situations [2]. - The financial market is in short - term shock adjustment, with the mid - term trend continuing and the high - tech industry growing. The gold price is affected by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and Fed interest rate policies [3]. - The log market has weakening supply pressure and non - weak demand in the off - season, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom but with weak driving force [4]. - The pulp market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the price is expected to oscillate [4]. - The double - offset paper market has supply pressure and general social orders, and the price is expected to weakly oscillate [4]. - The oil and fat market has uncertain demand prospects, high inventory pressure, and abundant supply, and is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [7]. - The meal market has a relatively loose supply, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias due to factors such as the weakness of US soybeans and the expected high yield in South America [7]. - The live pig market has stable supply and increased downstream consumption demand, and the weekly average price is expected to increase slightly [8]. - The rubber market has supply affected by weather and demand with limited support, and the price is expected to oscillate [8]. - The polyester market has different trends for each product, with prices mainly affected by cost, supply - demand, and inventory factors [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The global mine supply will increase significantly in 2026, while the current iron - making demand is weak, and the steel export policy is negative. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Supported by policies, but the steel export policy has a negative impact on demand. Short - term, the price may be affected by the disappearance of export orders, and the long - term anti - involution policy provides some support [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The market sentiment has been boosted, and the short - term fundamentals are good. However, the steel export policy requires attention to production control and export expectations [2]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent due to weak demand and insufficient supply contraction. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom and may rebound due to sentiment [2]. Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: The market is affected by policy arrangements and regulatory changes. Different stock indexes have different trends, with some rebounding and some oscillating [3]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is flat, and the market is in a state of consolidation with a slight rebound [3]. - **Precious metals**: The gold - pricing mechanism is changing, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and Fed interest rate policies affect the price, which is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3][5]. Light Industry - **Logs**: The supply pressure is weakening, and the demand is non - weak in the off - season. The price is expected to rebound from the bottom, but the driving force is not strong [4]. - **Pulp**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, with cost support and weak demand. The price is expected to oscillate [4]. - **Double - offset paper**: The supply pressure exists, and the social orders are general. The price is expected to weakly oscillate [4]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils and fats**: The demand prospects are uncertain, the inventory is high, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias, and attention should be paid to weather and production - sales changes [7]. - **Meals**: The supply is relatively loose, affected by the weakness of US soybeans and the expected high yield in South America. The price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [7]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The supply is stable, the downstream consumption demand has increased slightly, and the weekly average price is expected to increase slightly [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather, the demand support is limited, and the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period. The price is expected to oscillate [8]. Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical factors increase supply risks, and the price is affected by oil prices. The demand from downstream polyester can support it for the time being [9]. - **PTA**: The cost end is affected by oil price fluctuations, and the short - term supply - demand is improved but will deteriorate in the future. The price follows the cost end [9]. - **MEG**: There is a long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and the short - term price oscillates with an upward suppression [9]. - **PR**: The cost support is strong, but the terminal demand restricts the price increase [9]. - **PF**: The cost is strong, but the demand is expected to shrink after New Year's Day, and the processing fee may be compressed [9].