大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2512： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-23原油早报 1.基本面：美国总统特朗普表示，他认为与俄罗斯总统普京会面"不合适"，所以取消了和普京在布 达佩斯的会面，特朗普表示，他认为是时候对俄罗斯实施制裁了，他希望制裁不会持续太久；美国财 政部发布制裁俄罗斯石油的声明，在最新一轮制裁目标中纳入Rosneft（俄罗斯石油公司）、LukOil（卢 克石油公司），美方准备在必要时对俄罗斯采取进一步行动；特朗普称与印度总理莫迪通电话，通话 后特朗普表示莫迪向其保证印度将限制从俄罗斯采购石油。有报道暗示美印接近达成贸易协议，该协 议可能使印度逐步削减俄罗斯原油进口，从而推 ...

汇通财经APP讯——今年以来，黄金表现依然抢眼，受地缘政治紧张局势、经济不确定性、美国降息预 期以及ETF强劲流入的推动，金价累计涨幅高达57%。这一亮眼表现离不开全球市场对避险资产的旺盛 需求。然而，近期国际贸易局势的缓和以及俄乌和平前景的初步显现，部分削弱了黄金的避险吸引力， 导致部分投资者选择在高位获利了结。 周三（10月22日）现货黄金盘中一度下跌近3%，触及近两周低点4004.46美元/盎司，延续了前一日5.3% 的罕见单日跌幅。然而，多重因素吸引逢低买盘帮助金价守住4000关口，并一度回升至4160附近，纽约 时段再度下探4000关口附近支撑，但再度在逢低买盘的支撑下反弹，尾盘金价回升至4098.29美元/盎 司，跌幅收窄至0.64%。这一走势反映了市场在关键经济数据发布前的谨慎情绪。周四（10月23日）亚 市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于4195美元/盎司附近。 High Ridge Futures金属交易主管David Meger指出，鉴于金价过去几周的显著上涨，在美国消费者物价 指数（CPI）报告发布前出现获利回吐并不意外。技术面上，金价在4005美元的21日移动均线处获得支 撑，显示短 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in dollar credit and rising geopolitical risks are expected to continue driving funds into the gold market, maintaining an upward trend in gold prices. However, the influx of investment funds through ETFs has made gold prices more volatile [2][5]. Group 1: Price Movements - On October 21, New York gold futures fell by $250.3 (5.7%) to $4,109.1 per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop in history. The downward trend continued into Asian trading on October 22 [3]. - Gold prices had previously shown a rare upward trend, with a significant increase following the announcement of the dismissal of a Federal Reserve official in late August. By October 7, prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $4,398 per ounce by October 20, an increase of nearly $400 [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The sell-off in gold was exacerbated by speculative funds collapsing rapidly, as noted by a representative from the Japan Market Strategy Institute. The intensifying U.S.-China tensions and credit risks in U.S. regional banks have diminished concerns that previously supported higher gold prices [5]. - The World Gold Council's survey indicated that demand for gold is projected to reach approximately 170 tons in the April to June 2025 period, accounting for about 20% of total demand, a stark contrast to nearly zero demand in the same period a year prior. This highlights the increased volatility in gold prices due to investor fund allocation [5]. - Analysts suggest that the significant increase in gold ETF demand has become a potential source of selling pressure, contributing to the recent price drops in other precious metals like silver and platinum, which fell by 7% and 8% respectively [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the recent volatility, the perception of gold as a "safe asset" remains unchanged. Most analysts believe that the decline in dollar credit and rising geopolitical risks will continue to drive funds into the gold market, sustaining an upward price trend [5]. - There is a notable shift in the perception of price stability, with experts indicating that gold prices are likely to experience significant fluctuations in the future [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that factors such as Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and the accelerated restructuring of the international trade and monetary system continue to provide hedging demand and liquidity premiums for precious metals. The current upward trend in precious metals may continue until 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish stance, while short - hedgers can appropriately reduce their hedging ratios. However, short - term adjustment risks should be noted, and heavy - position chasing at current prices is not recommended [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: Uncertainties in Sino - US trade and the Russia - Ukraine conflict, along with adjustment risks from previous price surges, led to a significant drop in gold and silver prices overnight, followed by a notable rebound in the Asian session. It is necessary to observe whether London gold can stabilize at the $3950 - 4050 per ounce level. Key events to watch this week include the fifth round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, China's September economic data, the progress of the US government shutdown, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market Data**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 954.55, down 4.18%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 11,415, down 3.41%; Gold T + D closed at 947.30, down 4.01%; Silver T + D closed at 11,377, down 3.25% [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: From late April to early August, London gold oscillated widely between $3100 - 3500 per ounce to digest high - valuation pressures. Since August, factors such as the Fed's potential rate cuts, the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system, and geopolitical risks have driven a new round of upward trends in precious metals. London gold soared to $4380 per ounce, and London silver reached a new record high of $54.47 per ounce. Although the upward trend is expected to continue, short - term adjustment risks should be noted [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts, including those of Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - **US - Russia Relations**: The planned summit between US President Trump and Russian President Putin was postponed due to Russia's rejection of the immediate cease - fire proposal in Ukraine. Russia's conditions for a peace agreement with Ukraine conflicted with Trump's current plan [17]. - **EU - China Trade**: The EU Trade Commissioner invited Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao to visit Brussels to address China's tightened rare - earth export restrictions. China hopes the EU will urge the Netherlands to resolve the impasse around Nexperia. Discussions also covered the EU's anti - subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles [18]. - **Japan's New Prime Minister's Stance**: Japan's new Prime Minister Takamori Sanae hopes the Bank of Japan's monetary policy can achieve a 2% inflation target in a sustainable manner, accompanied by wage growth [18]. - **Canada - US Steel and Aluminum Trade**: Canadian Prime Minister Carney was cautious about reports of a potential steel and aluminum trade agreement with the US, warning against over - interpretation [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price rebounded sharply overnight, and the decline momentum of oil prices this week is expected to slow down. Precious metals are in a weak adjustment phase, and it is recommended to wait for a stable buying opportunity. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate temporarily, while aluminum prices are expected to test the previous high resistance. The prices of various industrial products and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situation, and trade negotiations, showing different trends [2][3][4]. Summary by Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight, international oil prices rebounded sharply, with Brent's December contract rising 4.36%. The decline momentum of oil prices this week is expected to slow down in the absence of additional negative factors. The market is in an oversold rebound state, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the $65/barrel resistance level of Brent due to geopolitical fluctuations [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Overnight, fuel oil prices rose significantly following the cost - end. High - sulfur fuel oil is currently supported by geopolitical fluctuations, but the supply will be looser in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are weak, but the cracking spread may be supported in the fourth quarter [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The supply of liquefied petroleum gas increased slightly this week. The chemical demand is growing, while the combustion demand is weak. The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the price is boosted by the rebound of crude oil [24]. - **Bitumen**: The weekly asphalt production rate declined. The supply and demand are in a tight - balance state, and the price has rebounded from a low level due to the stop - falling of crude oil [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, gold and silver continued their weak adjustment. They are in the process of repairing the overbought situation and may enter a high - level shock stage after the correction. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices fluctuated with a positive line. The short - term sharp decline of precious metals reflects the resilience of copper prices. The market is waiting for the Sino - US business meeting this week, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate temporarily [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly. An overseas aluminum plant reduced production by 200,000 tons due to an accident. The short - term aluminum price will continue to test the previous high resistance [5]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory is extremely low, and the overseas spot is tight, supporting the London zinc price to break through the $3,000 integer mark again. The domestic zinc price has strong support at 21,500 yuan/ton, and the short - term rebound height depends on zinc ingot exports and downstream consumption [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel price fluctuated narrowly. The downstream demand recovery is limited, and the social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The price of the nickel industry chain may be dragged down. Technically, the Shanghai nickel price is weak, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, the tin price fluctuated with a negative line. The domestic tin concentrate import volume decreased by nearly 30% month - on - month in September. A short - selling strategy is recommended [11]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillated upward. The iron - water production remains high. The weekly output of silicon - manganese decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillated upward. The iron - water production remains high, and the overall demand is acceptable. The supply remains at a high level, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [20]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The lithium price rebounded, and the market trading became active. The total market inventory decreased, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and rebound [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures continued to adjust. The supply - side pressure is increasing, and the short - term disk is expected to oscillate. The supply - demand contradiction is expected to be alleviated in November [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures adjusted downward. The production reduction in November - December is uncertain. The price is expected to oscillate, and there may be an opportunity to bet on a rebound [14]. - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene price is expected to continue to rebound. The short - term oil price stop - falling provides rebound power, but the high import volume is the main pressure in the medium term [27]. - **Styrene**: The crude oil price increase may boost the cost and market sentiment of styrene, but the high inventory suppresses the price [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The sharp increase in crude oil prices may boost olefin - chain products. The supply - demand contradiction of polypropylene may increase, and the price may remain at a low level for a long time [29]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC shows an oscillating trend. The supply is expected to increase, and the weak reality pattern continues. Caustic soda oscillates narrowly, and short - selling should be cautious [30]. - **PX and PTA**: The sharp rebound in oil prices will provide rebound power for PX and PTA. The short - term price is expected to rebound, and the mid - term is expected to be in a contango state [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price continued to rebound at night. The short - term price is expected to rebound, but there is a pressure of inventory accumulation in the medium term [32]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The glass price oscillated narrowly. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be in the bottom - range [34]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price oscillated. The supply is high, the demand is slightly reduced, and it is recommended to short at a high level after a rebound [36]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The soybean supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but it may be tight in the first quarter of next year if the Sino - US trade relationship deteriorates. The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate [37]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The domestic oil - meal ratio is in a callback state. The export demand of US soybeans is uncertain. It is recommended to look for opportunities where oil is stronger than meal in the medium - long term [38]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term trend of rapeseed prices is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US, Sino - Canadian, and US - Canadian trade relations [39]. - **Corn**: The corn futures price oscillated weakly. The supply is loose, and the price is expected to continue to be weak at the bottom [40]. - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean supply is sufficient in the fourth quarter, but may be tight in the first quarter of next year. The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate [37]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price showed an intraday upward - then - downward trend. The market is weak, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [42]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price declined. The domestic cotton demand is general, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [43]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to be good. Attention should be paid to the weather and the growth of sugarcane [44]. - **Apples**: The apple futures price is strong. The cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Timber**: The timber price oscillated. The supply is low, the demand is supported, and a long - buying strategy is recommended [46]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price increased. The port inventory is relatively high, and the demand is general. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. Livestock - **Pigs**: The live - pig spot price continued to rebound, and the futures price oscillated narrowly. The price is in a rebound cycle, but a short - selling strategy is recommended after the rebound [41]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot price of the container freight index (European line) is expected to rise. The short - term upward momentum of the futures price may weaken, but the overall trend is expected to be strong [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously bullish: Crude oil, LPG, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, natural gas, asphalt [1][2][5] - Bearish rebound: L, PP [1] - Bearish consolidation: PVC, glass, soda ash [1][5] - Cautiously bearish: Methanol, urea [2] Core Views - The core driver of the oil price is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to move down. However, short - term geopolitical conflicts may cause the oil price to rebound [7]. - The prices of LPG, L, PP, PVC, and other products are mainly affected by cost support and supply - demand relationships. Most of them are in a state of supply surplus, and the prices are under pressure, but there may be short - term rebounds [1]. - PX and PTA have the expectation of supply - demand improvement, but the cost side is affected by the oil price, and the prices are expected to be volatile [1][29][32]. - Ethylene glycol has limited upward driving force due to increased supply and inventory accumulation, and is expected to be weak in the short term [35]. - Methanol and urea have weak fundamentals with high supply pressure and limited demand, but there may be some opportunities in the long - term [2][38]. - Natural gas demand is expected to pick up with the temperature drop, and the price may rise [5]. - Asphalt supply - demand is relatively loose, but short - term geopolitical factors may cause price fluctuations [5]. - Glass and soda ash are in a state of supply - demand surplus, and the prices are expected to be weak [5]. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded slightly, with WTI rising 0.39%, Brent rising 0.51%, and SC falling 0.66% [6]. - **Basic logic**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts lead to a rebound in oil prices, but the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to move down [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold previous short positions, buy call options to control risks, and also buy put options. Pay attention to the range of SC [435 - 445] [9]. LPG - **Market performance**: On October 22, the PG main contract closed at 4130 yuan/ton, up 0.58% [12]. - **Basic logic**: The price is anchored to the cost - end crude oil. The cost end rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand side support declines [13]. - **Strategy**: Buy put options. Pay attention to the range of PG [4050 - 4150] [14]. L - **Market performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 6874 yuan/ton (- 55) [17]. - **Basic logic**: Cost support improves, and there is a weak rebound. Supply continues to be loose, and the demand side has insufficient restocking power [18]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell at high prices. Short - term follow the cost rebound, short positions leave the market, and wait for the rebound to short. Pay attention to the range of L [6800 - 7000] [18]. PP - **Market performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6583 yuan/ton (+ 18) [22]. - **Basic logic**: Short - term cost support improves, following the weak rebound of the chemical sector. Supply - demand is weak, and there is high inventory - removal pressure in the future [23]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. The industry should sell at high prices. Short - term follow the cost rebound, reduce short positions, and wait for the rebound to short. Pay attention to the range of PP [6500 - 6700] [23]. PVC - **Market performance**: The V2601 closed at 4719 yuan/ton (+ 20) [26]. - **Basic logic**: Cost support improves, following the chemical sector rebound. Domestic demand is weak, and the sustainability of exports is questionable. Supply is loose [27]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand weakness is difficult to change. The absolute price is undervalued. Participate in the short - term rebound with a light position. Pay attention to the range of V [4600 - 4800] [27]. PX - **Market performance**: The prices of PX futures contracts declined [28]. - **Basic logic**: Supply - side devices have slightly reduced loads, and demand is expected to improve. PXN is not low this year, and the PX - MX spread is narrowing. The cost - end crude oil price rebounds in the short term [29]. - **Strategy**: The valuation is not high. Short positions should stop losses at low prices. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices in the future. Pay attention to the range of PX [6410 - 6490] [30]. PTA - **Market performance**: The prices of PTA futures contracts declined [31]. - **Basic logic**: Supply - side devices are under planned maintenance, and new devices are about to be put into production. Terminal demand shows slight improvement, but there is a large inventory - accumulation pressure from October to November [32]. - **Strategy**: The valuation and processing fees are not high. Short positions should stop losses at low prices. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices in the future. Pay attention to the range of TA [4450 - 4520] [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market performance**: The prices of ethylene glycol futures contracts declined [34]. - **Basic logic**: Domestic devices increase loads, and overseas devices slightly reduce loads. The arrival and import volume are still low compared to the same period. Supply increases, and inventory accumulates slightly [35]. - **Strategy**: Partially stop losses on short positions. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices during the rebound. Pay attention to the range of EG [4020 - 4100] [36]. Methanol - **Market performance**: The prices of methanol futures contracts declined [37]. - **Basic logic**: High inventory suppresses the spot price. The supply pressure is large, and the demand has no obvious positive factors. The cost support is weakly stable [38]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy long positions on the 01 contract at low prices [38]. Urea - **Market performance**: Shandong small - particle urea is weakly stable, and the basis slightly weakens [2]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is expected to increase after the return of maintenance devices, and demand is weak at home and strong abroad. The inventory is accumulating [2]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. For the long - term, try to go long with a light position [2]. Natural Gas - **Market performance**: Not mentioned - **Basic logic**: Temperature drops, demand is expected to pick up, and the gas price rebounds. The supply is sufficient [5]. - **Strategy**: Not mentioned Asphalt - **Market performance**: Not mentioned - **Basic logic**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances, but the supply - demand fundamentals are relatively loose [5]. - **Strategy**: Partially stop losses on short positions [5] Glass - **Market performance**: Not mentioned - **Basic logic**: Domestic demand is weak, and supply is under pressure. The inventory in the factory increases after the festival [5]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand surplus continues. The absolute price is low. Short on the medium - term rebound [5] Soda Ash - **Market performance**: Not mentioned - **Basic logic**: The inventory in the factory accumulates after the festival, and supply is loose. The demand is mostly rigid [5]. - **Strategy**: The industry should hedge at high prices. Short on the long - term rebound. Hold the long position of the alkali - glass spread [5]

换资前言： 市场瞬息万变，顺势而为，才是王道，趋势来了就是干，不要逆势操作，免得难受煎熬。交易切记不要 意气用事，市场专治各种不服，所以一定不要扛单，相信很多人都深有体会，越抗越慌，浮亏不断放 大，搞的吃不好睡不好，还白白错过很多机会，如果你也有这些烦恼，那不妨跟上金晟富的节奏来试 试，看看能否让你豁然开朗。如果你需要帮助，本人金晟富会一直在这儿，但如果你连手都不伸，我又 怎么能帮到你呢？ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周四（10月23日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于4085美元/盎司附近。周三（10月22日） 现货黄金盘中一度下跌近3%，触及近两周低点4004.46美元/盎司，延续了前一日5.3%的罕见单日跌 幅。然而，多重因素吸引逢低买盘帮助金价守住4000关口，并一度回升至4160附近，纽约时段再度下探 4000关口附近支撑，但再度在逢低买盘的支撑下反弹，尾盘金价回升至4098.29美元/盎司，跌幅收窄至 0.64%。这一走势反映了市场在关键经济数据发布前的谨慎情绪。今年以来，黄金表现依然抢眼，受地 缘政治紧张局势、经济不确定性、美国降息预期以及ETF强劲流入的推 ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for each energy and chemical product, mainly including "oscillation", "oscillation - slightly stronger", "oscillation - slightly weaker", etc. For example, the mid - term outlooks for most products like crude oil, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are "oscillation" [7][8][9]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - US situation and the US - India trade agreement have led to a rebound in crude oil prices. The short - term rhythm of crude oil is determined by geopolitics, while the medium - term supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged [1]. - With the rebound of crude oil and the increase of chemical coal prices, the chemical industry has also started to rebound. There are minor disruptions in the supply of some chemical products, but the overall pattern has not changed significantly [2]. - For different energy and chemical products, their prices are affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, showing different trends of oscillation, rise, or fall [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have increased, and Russian oil exports are facing new challenges. The US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and EIA data shows a small reduction in US crude oil and refined product inventories last week. The downward trend of crude oil prices may be delayed, and the spread between domestic and foreign markets is expected to widen [7]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price has broken through the 3200 pressure level. OPEC+ production increase, Saudi Arabia's export price adjustment, and other factors have led to a rebound in asphalt prices. However, the spot price has continued to decline, and the inventory pressure is still large [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Tensions between the US and Venezuela have intensified, driving up the futures price. Although there are some negative factors, the market is mainly affected by geopolitical upgrades [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the oscillation of crude oil prices. It is facing multiple negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by other fuels, but its current valuation is low [10]. - **PX**: Low prices have attracted market buying interest, and the short - term support has been strengthened under the improvement of supply - demand conditions [11]. - **PTA**: Under supply - demand pressure, the spot processing fee and basis have weakened significantly [12]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream consumers tend to buy on rising prices, and the sustainability of increased trading volume needs to be observed [20]. - **Bottle - Chip**: It follows the rise of polyester raw materials [21]. - **Propylene**: The price difference with PP continues to fluctuate in the range of 500 - 550, and PL oscillates [3]. - **PP**: The rebound of oil prices and minor support from maintenance lead to oscillation [28]. - **Plastic**: The rebound of oil prices and increased downstream trading volume result in oscillation [27]. - **Styrene**: It oscillates upward with the rebound of crude oil [16]. - **PVC**: It oscillates at a low valuation with weak expectations [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market oscillates [31]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.34 with a change of 0.05, and the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 24 with a change of 6 [33]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each product has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities. For instance, the basis of asphalt is 81 with a change of - 102, and the number of warehouse receipts is 13040 [34]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 164 with a change of 57 [35]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but does not provide specific data analysis in the given text. It only lists the names of these products [36][49][61]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index of commodities are presented. The commodity 20 index is 2531.94 with a decline of 0.48%, the industrial products index is 2204.41 with an increase of 0.87%, and the energy index on October 22, 2025, has a daily increase of 2.01% [279][281].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks and macro - economic factors are causing significant fluctuations in various financial and commodity markets. - Different sectors are affected by specific events, such as sanctions, production changes, and policy adjustments, leading to diverse market trends and investment opportunities [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - EU approved the 19th round of sanctions on Russia, including banning imports of Russian LNG and adding travel restrictions on Russian diplomats. - Gold price decline slowed, testing the 20 - day moving average support. The new sanctions pushed gold to rebound slightly, but the rebound space is limited, and the price has not stabilized yet. - Investment advice: Short - term gold price has increased long - short game and larger amplitude, not yet stabilized [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump cancelled the meeting with Putin, indicating the continuation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. - The short - term market risk appetite declined, and the US dollar index fluctuated. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Tesla's Q3 revenue rebounded, but profit decreased by 31% more than expected. - The Fed considered reducing the bank capital requirement from 19% to a minimum of 3%. - PrimaLend applied for bankruptcy. - The market risk appetite decreased, and the three major stock indexes declined. - Investment advice: The US stock market shows a weak and volatile performance recently. Look for opportunities to buy on dips and maintain a bullish view overall [20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 138.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 9.47 billion yuan. - The bond market fluctuated narrowly. The probability of double - cut (interest rate and reserve requirement ratio) is relatively low. - Investment advice: Observe the market sentiment and look for opportunities to buy mid - line long positions on dips [22]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina's September soybean crushing volume was 4.133 million tons. - Abiove predicted that Brazil's 25/26 annual soybean production will reach a record high of 178.5 million tons. - Investment advice: With the US government shutdown, focus on Brazil's weather and Sino - US relations. The domestic and foreign futures prices are expected to remain volatile [25]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Infrastructure central enterprises' new "new infrastructure" project contracts increased significantly in the first three quarters. - Steel prices rebounded slightly in a volatile manner. The market has limited contradictions and driving forces. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices in the near term [27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 10.77% month - on - month. - The oil market corrected significantly. The increase in production reduced the possibility of tight supply in the fourth quarter. - Investment advice: After the over - expected production data in October, the confidence in the fourth - quarter palm oil price increase declined. Consider buying on dips around 9,000 yuan/ton and adopt a range - trading strategy [30]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Newcastle Port's coal transportation volume in September was 14.0804 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 15.8% and a year - on - year increase of 19.57%. - The coal price was supported by the increase in power consumption and the contraction of supply. - Investment advice: Although the power consumption in 8 provinces decreased after the end of high - temperature weather, the coming of the cold wave in the north and the long - lasting winter are expected to strongly support the steam coal price [31]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The corn starch startup rate in North China decreased slightly, while that in Northeast China increased. - The futures rice - flour price difference rebounded significantly and is expected to continue to repair. - Investment advice: The futures rice - flour price difference is expected to continue to repair [34]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The first heavy - haul train of Simandou was successfully dispatched. - The iron ore price fluctuated weakly. The performance of finished products was mediocre, and the inventory and profit pressure of steel mills restricted the price. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to be structurally weak, and there is no clear trend for now [35]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in Guangzhou Ruyifang Market was weakly stable. - The futures price of the main contract CJ601 declined. - Investment advice: The next week is the key period for the formation of the purchase price. It is recommended to wait and see before the acquisition price is formed [37]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports increased seasonally. - The futures and spot prices continued to fluctuate narrowly. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The risk - return ratio of short - selling is not good, and it may be necessary to wait for the right time to go long [38]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - China's photovoltaic module exports in September were 25.63GW, a 6.0% month - on - month decrease and a 46.8% year - on - year increase. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The production in October is expected to be about 138,000 tons, and it is expected to decline significantly from November to December. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the spot price will not fall in October. Consider buying on dips when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price [42]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Hesheng Group and its concerted actors pledged 49.91% of their shares in total. - The production in the north increased, while that in the south decreased. The inventory increased. - Investment advice: The fundamental situation is weakening, and the price has a clear lower limit. It is more cost - effective to buy on dips [44]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Hebei restricted the entry of vehicles below the National V emission standard. - The LME lead price was in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the inventory decreased. - Investment advice: From a unilateral perspective, observe the price in a volatile manner. From an arbitrage perspective, pay attention to the mid - line positive arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets [47]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - MMG's zinc ore production in Q3 increased by 26%. - The LME zinc price fluctuated upward, and the inventory decreased. - Investment advice: From a unilateral perspective, it is recommended to wait and see. From an arbitrage perspective, pay attention to the mid - line positive arbitrage opportunities and maintain a positive arbitrage strategy for domestic and foreign markets [50]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Southern Copper's Tía María copper mine project was approved. - The customs clearance of scrap copper imports became stricter, and the import volume in October may decline. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, the copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate widely at a high level. Consider buying on dips. From an arbitrage perspective, wait and see [54]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Rongbai Technology achieved 10 - ton - level shipments of all - solid - state cathode materials. - The price was supported by the improvement of inventory data during the peak demand season. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the short term. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the peak demand in the year. Consider reverse arbitrage for LC2511 - LC2601 and positive arbitrage for LC2601 against more distant contracts [55]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Vale's nickel production in Q3 was 46,800 tons, basically the same as the previous year. - The global nickel inventory increased, and the price fluctuated narrowly. - Investment advice: The nickel ore price is expected to rise in Q4. It is recommended to buy on dips. Speculative traders can consider selling near - the - money put options and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options [59]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle East frozen cargo decreased. - The US C3 inventory increased. - Investment advice: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [62]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased. - The US sanctioned two Russian oil companies, causing the oil price to rise significantly. - Investment advice: The short - term geopolitical conflict will cause disturbances [66]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - An East China refinery has a plan to shut down for maintenance. - The PX spot market is tight, and the price rebounded. - Investment advice: The price will rebound from a low valuation in the short term, but the space may be limited by the oil price [68]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were differentiated. - The demand side is stable, and the supply side is expected to increase. - Investment advice: The price will rebound from a low valuation in the short term, but the upward space is limited [70]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - The production enterprise inventory was stable, and the port inventory increased slightly. - The futures and spot prices decreased, and the spot price decreased more. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [73]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The total inventory of urea enterprises increased, but the inventory accumulation slope slowed down. - Investment advice: The urea futures price is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner in the short term [75]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was basically stable. - The pulp futures price was relatively strong, but the upward space is limited due to the poor supply - demand situation. - Investment advice: The upward space of the pulp futures price is limited [76].