化工周报 | 2025-06-22 关注地缘冲突演变对成本端的支撑 核心观点 市场分析 成本端，本周油价受中东地缘升温影响大幅上涨，以色列袭击伊朗石油、天然气等能源基础设施，而后伊朗导弹 还击，近期关注地缘变化，如果伊以冲突对能源设施的破坏加剧，甚至对霍尔木兹海峡产生影响，则油价面临进 一步的上行风险。如果事态控制在一定程度内，各方寻求和谈，则地缘溢价可能会再度回落。 汽油和芳烃方面，近期美国汽油裂解再度回撤，在新能源替代的背景下预计汽油裂解价差上涨空间有限，今年的 调油需求已不值得过多的期待，国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。 芳烃方面，3~5月韩国出口到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，近期关注利润恢复下PX短流程装置恢复 情况，短流程利润修复下，PX 工厂重新开始外采 MX 。 PX方面，本周中国 PX 开工率85.6%（环比上周-0.2%），亚洲 PX 开工率74.3%（环比上周-1.3%）。本周国内PX 负荷基本持稳，海外方面装置变动相对较多，中东地缘冲突导致伊朗、以色列PX装置停车，沙特Rabigh芳烃装置 重启延后, 海外PX开工下滑相对明显。月底 ...

FICC周报 | 2025-06-22 伊以事件扰动持续，关注后续进展 市场分析 国内5月经济仍待夯实。5月国内数据好坏参半，5月投资数据整体走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增，后续或将拖累 财政收入，及整个地产链条；同时出口也略有承压，5月"抢出口"成色一般，叠加美国5月零售销售走弱，前期需 求透支下，后续外需预计将承压；5月仅有消费表现韧性，6月20日新华社发布后续以旧换新国补将继续下达。面 对关税下的外需压力和内部的稳增长诉求，关注财政进一步加码的可能。6月9-10日，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议 在英国伦敦举行，落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解 决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。关于7月9日到期的关税延后政策，6月12日特朗普政府首次公开承认其关税时间 表存在灵活性。欧盟也表示预计延期谈判。 美联储按兵不动，维持联邦基金利率目标区间4.25%-4.50%不变，符合市场预期。决议声明略掉关于失业率和通 胀风险更高的措辞，今年利率预测中位值不变、仍预计两次25基点降息，但利率点阵图显示，预计不降息者较上 次增三人至七人。鲍威尔称，预计未来数月通胀压力将因关税显著上升， ...

特朗普表示，美国和以色列作为一个团队进行了密切合作。 如果伊朗不能实现和平，美国会继续攻击 。 特朗普称，美军参谋长联席会议主 席凯恩以 及美国国防部长赫格塞思将于美国东部时间22日上午8时举行新闻发布会。 伊朗外长阿拉格齐22日在社交媒体发文说，美国袭击伊朗核设施"令人发指"，将会产生"持久后果"。伊朗保留一切捍卫主权、利益和人民安全的选项。 据CCTV国际时讯援引伊朗迈赫尔通讯社报道， 在当地时间今天（6月22日）早上对以色列的新一轮导弹袭击中，伊朗首次使用了"开伯尔"导弹。 据了解，"开伯尔"导弹很有可能指的就是伊朗此前曾公布的"霍拉姆沙赫尔-4"远程弹道导弹。据伊朗媒体此前报道，"霍拉姆沙赫尔-4"导弹被认为是"伊朗 破坏力最强的导弹"。 以伊冲突显著升级。 当地时间6月22日，以色列股市高开，TA-125指数上涨1%，创下历史新高，TA-35基准指数上涨1.2%。沙特 阿 拉伯T adaw ul全股指数上涨1%。科威 特证券交易所高级市场指数上涨0.7%，卡塔尔基准股指上涨0.7%。埃及股指下跌1.5%。 截至发稿， 以色列 TA-35基准指数仍上涨1.1%。 此前，美国总统特朗普就袭击伊朗核设施发 ...

白银的故事同样充满戏剧性。这种兼具货币属性和工业属性的金属，在 2025 年被预测价格将突破 43.50 美元，其导电性和导热性使其在 5G 电子元件和新能 源电池中不可或缺。然而白银市场的分歧也显而易见：乐观者认为工业需求将支撑其价格持续走高，悲观者则担忧投机资金撤离引发的波动风险。这种争议 在铂族金属中更为突出 —— 铂金曾是汽车催化转化器的 "标配"，但新能源汽车的崛起使其在传统燃油车领域的需求锐减，所幸氢燃料电池车的发展带来新 希望，尽管当前单车铂金用量已从 2000 年的 1.1g/kw 降至 0.17g/kw，但行业对低铂催化剂的研发仍在加速，这种 "危中有机" 的局面让铂金市场前景扑朔迷 离。 当我们梳理金、银、铂、钯、铑、铱、锇、钌这八大贵金属的现状，会发现每个品种都面临着独特的挑战与机遇：黄金在货币属性与医疗应用中寻找新平 衡，铂金在能源转型中经历 "阵痛"，钯金和铑在传统需求与新兴领域间博弈，而铱、锇、钌等小众贵金属则在电子和航空航天领域默默发挥着不可替代的 作用。2025 年的贵金属市场，早已超越了简单的 "避险投资" 范畴，而是成为观察全球产业变革和地缘政治的绝佳窗口。 你认为在新能源 ...

金十数据6月22日讯，资产管理公司瀚亚投资经理Rong Ren Goh表示："美国轰炸伊朗核设施标志着以伊 冲突显著升级，并引入了地缘政治风险的新阶段，美国的直接介入可能会延长该地区的紧张局势。对亚 洲市场而言，主要脆弱性在于其对能源价格上涨的敏感性。一场长期冲突会增加供应中断的风险，这可 能加剧通胀压力，并拖累整个地区的增长预期。随着迅速解决冲突的前景现在变得渺茫，投资者可能会 对整个市场的风险进行重新定价。我预计会出现避险资金流入，随着市场评估持续地缘政治不稳定和高 油价的潜在影响，美元将受到追捧，亚洲风险资产普遍走弱。" 分析师：中东冲突将使亚洲风险资产普遍走弱 ...

特朗普宣布对伊朗核设施实施"成功攻击" ，市场正面临新风险挑战，将投资者置于前所未有的不确定性之中，参与者重新评估各类资产的风险敞口。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间6月21日，美国总统特朗普宣布，美国已完成对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施的袭击， 伊朗关键的核浓缩设施已被彻底 摧毁，如果伊朗"不能实现和平"， 美国可能会攻击更多目标 。 这一军事行动与此前两周的谈判预期形成鲜明对比， 标志着该地区安全和政治格局进入一个不可预测、且更加危险复杂的阶段。 投资者正密切关注伊朗可能的反击措施，特别是对霍尔木兹海峡这一关键能源通道的潜在威胁。著名的在线竞猜网站Polymarket上，对于 "伊朗是否会在7月前封 锁霍尔木兹海峡"的概率已经升至54%。 原油市场开始权衡最坏情形 。Oxford Economics分析师建模显示，最严重情况下全球油价可能跳升至每桶130美元左右，推动美国通胀率在今年年底接近6%，这 将"彻底破坏今年美国降息的任何可能性"。 美股短期可能承压但历史表明随后将反弹 ，美元则面临复杂的双重影响。 黄金方面，德意志银行指出，应为黄金在未来几周内重建风险溢价做好准备， 当前黄金地缘政治风险溢价 ...

美国加州州政府表示，正在评估伊朗遭到袭击后的任何潜在影响。 ...

Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing intensified long-short battles after a week of fluctuations, with a clear divergence in expectations between Wall Street analysts and retail investors regarding gold price trends for the upcoming week [1] - A recent survey of 16 Wall Street analysts shows that only 6 (approximately 38%) expect gold prices to rise in the next week, while 5 (31%) predict a potential decline, and another 5 (31%) anticipate a sideways market [1] - In contrast, an online survey of 258 retail investors reveals that 138 (54%) expect gold prices to rise next week, indicating a more optimistic sentiment among retail investors [1] Group 2 - Citigroup and other institutions predict that gold prices may fluctuate between $3100 and $3500 in the short term, but long-term pressures may arise due to changes in Federal Reserve policy and economic conditions [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook, suggesting that if geopolitical conflicts or policy uncertainties escalate, gold prices could challenge $3500 or even higher [1] - Deutsche Bank notes that historical data indicates that the geopolitical risk premium for gold typically peaks between the 8th and 20th trading days after a crisis, with an average increase of 5.5%, suggesting that the rapid decline in the current geopolitical risk premium may be a false signal [3]

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Impact - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are redefining the global market landscape, with direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran creating unprecedented uncertainty for investors [1] - The recent U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities mark a significant escalation in the conflict, prompting market participants to reassess risk exposure across various asset classes [1] - Oil prices are expected to rise significantly, with Oxford Economics modeling a worst-case scenario of approximately $130 per barrel, potentially pushing U.S. inflation close to 6% by year-end [1] Group 2: Oil Market Volatility - The oil market has experienced significant volatility, with WTI crude futures rising about 10% and Brent crude futures increasing 18% since June 10, reaching a near five-month high of $79.04 [2] - Traders are exiting oil futures positions at record speed, with a drop of 367 million barrels in open contracts, representing a decline of about 7% since June 12 [2] - The volatility in the oil market is attributed to the unpredictability of U.S. actions regarding the conflict, leading to increased pressure on derivative books [2] Group 3: Transportation Costs and Risks - Transportation costs for crude oil from the Middle East to China have surged nearly 90% since the Israeli attacks, with shipping rates for gasoline and aviation fuel also rising significantly [3] - The safety of the Strait of Hormuz is under close scrutiny, as it accounts for about one-fifth of global oil production and consumption, with GPS signals of nearly 1,000 vessels being disrupted [3] - Recent incidents, including oil tankers colliding and exploding, highlight the increasing risks faced by vessels in the region [3] Group 4: Currency and Stock Market Reactions - The escalation of the Middle East conflict has a complex impact on the U.S. dollar, which may initially benefit from safe-haven demand but could weaken in the long term due to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - The U.S. stock market has shown a relatively mild reaction to the conflict, with the S&P 500 index initially declining but stabilizing thereafter, indicating potential for a rebound based on historical trends [4][5] - Historical data suggests that the S&P 500 typically experiences a slight decline in the initial weeks of conflict but tends to recover in the following months [5] Group 5: Gold Market Dynamics - The rapid decline in geopolitical risk premium for gold may be misleading, as historical patterns indicate that such premiums often peak 8-20 trading days after a crisis [10][12] - Despite the ongoing conflict, gold prices have recently dropped, with spot gold falling below $3,370, marking a decline of over 1.8% [7] - Deutsche Bank anticipates that gold will likely rebuild its risk premium in the coming weeks due to the severity of the Israel-Iran conflict and U.S. military actions [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent military action by President Trump against Iran's nuclear facilities has raised concerns about market volatility and energy prices, with analysts predicting an initial spike in oil prices and increased uncertainty in the market [1][2]. Energy Market Impact - Mark Spindel, CIO of Potomac River Capital, anticipates initial panic in the market, leading to higher oil prices due to increased uncertainty and risk exposure [2]. - Jamie Cox from Harris Financial Group expects oil prices to surge initially but stabilize within a few days, suggesting that Iran may seek a peace agreement after losing leverage [2]. - Jack Ablin, CIO of Cresset Capital, warns that this event introduces new complex risks that will clearly impact energy prices and could potentially increase inflation [2]. Stock Market Reactions - Mark Malek, CIO of Siebert Financial, holds an optimistic view on the stock market, believing the military action will be positive, especially since it appears to be a one-time event rather than a prolonged conflict [3]. - Malek emphasizes the need to remain vigilant regarding the potential for Iran to block the critical Strait of Hormuz, which would significantly alter market dynamics [3]. Pre-Market Observations - Investors are closely monitoring early signals before the market opens, with Spindel noting that there is ample time for consideration and discussions before trading begins [4]. - Analysts believe the bold military action contrasts sharply with previous expectations of negotiations, and market participants are assessing potential damage, which may take time [4]. - The core concern for investors remains the potential retaliatory measures from Iran and whether this action is truly a one-time event or could escalate into a broader regional conflict [4].