Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in steel prices across various categories, with the national absolute price index for steel at 3442 yuan/ton, down 0.1% week-on-week and down 12.9% year-on-year [1] - Specific price indices for different steel products show a mixed trend: long products at 3278 yuan/ton (down 0.1% week-on-week, down 13.0% year-on-year), section steel at 3384 yuan/ton (down 0.4% week-on-week, down 14.2% year-on-year), plate steel at 3518 yuan/ton (up 0.1% week-on-week, down 13.1% year-on-year), and pipe steel at 3944 yuan/ton (down 0.1% week-on-week, down 11% year-on-year) [1] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by proactive policies aimed at stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic cycle, reflecting the resilience and vitality of the economy [1] Group 2 - In the futures market, there was an increase in prices for coking coal (up 2.78%), coke (up 2.9%), rebar (up 1.05%), and hot-rolled coil (up 1.47%), while iron ore prices remained stable [2] - On the supply side, steel companies are showing increased capacity release due to varying profitability across products, leading to a slight increase in molten iron production, although production levels for specific products vary [2] - Demand is affected by seasonal weather factors, resulting in generally poor transaction performance across various products, while cost support for steel prices remains strong due to stable scrap steel prices and steady coke prices [2]

Economic Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes confidence and capability in promoting sustained and healthy domestic economic development despite complex external challenges [2] - The NDRC has implemented proactive macro policies to stabilize employment and promote high-quality development, resulting in overall stable economic operation [2] Employment Support Initiatives - The NDRC has launched the "Action Plan" to enhance employment and income for key groups through the "work-for-relief" policy, with a focus on increasing support for vulnerable populations [2][3] - A total of 16 billion yuan has been allocated for "work-for-relief" projects, expected to create job opportunities for 380,000 individuals [3] Policy Implementation and Funding - The NDRC plans to issue the third batch of funds for the "old-for-new" consumption policy in July, with a total support of 300 billion yuan for consumer goods [4][5] - The first two batches of funding for equipment updates have already allocated approximately 173 billion yuan, supporting around 7,500 projects across 16 sectors [4] Market Impact - The "old-for-new" policy has led to significant sales growth in related products, with sales exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan this year [5] - The NDRC aims to enhance the effectiveness of the "two new" policies by improving project management and ensuring timely funding distribution [5]

晨报 铝锭 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价区间调整。鲍威尔在美国国会作证时表示，他和许多官 员都预计通胀将很快开始上升，美联储并不急于在此期间降低借贷成本， 但美元仍然下跌。以色列和伊朗停火缓解地缘风险，降低资 ...

"省委十一届九次全会的召开正当其时、意义重大，为当前和今后一个时期河南发展制定了路线图、时 间表和任务书，必将进一步增强全省干部群众学思想、讲协同、抓落实的政治自觉、思想自觉、行动自 觉，鼓舞全省上下坚定沿着习近平总书记指引的方向勇毅前行。"6月24日，省发展改革委党组书记、主 任马健在接受记者专访时说。 马健表示，省发展改革委将深入学习贯彻全会精神，积极发挥宏观管理和经济综合协调部门作用，统筹 兼顾、突出重点、狠抓落实，不断开创经济社会高质量发展新局面，一步一个脚印推动习近平总书记重 要讲话精神在中原大地落地生根、开花结果。 一是持续推动经济回升向好。加强宏观政策跟踪落实和预研储备，深入实施提振消费专项行动，提速推 进"两重"、中央预算内投资、地方政府专项债券等政策性资金项目建设，持续挖掘释放经济大省需求潜 力。 四是全面深化改革开放。抓好融入服务全国统一大市场建设，全面落实"五统一、一破除"任务，深入实 施营商环境优化提升行动，开展民营经济高质量发展系列行动和专项攻坚，办好郑州—吉隆坡航空"双 枢纽"合作论坛，不断增强发展动力活力。同时，高质量谋划完成我省"十五五"规划建议、规划纲要和 专项规划编制工作。 ...

Group 1 - The report anticipates that the A-share market will continue to experience a slight upward trend in July, driven by dividends and technology sectors [2][4][8] - Since the beginning of 2025, A-share indices have shown wide fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.89% and the ChiNext Index down by 5.79% as of June 23, 2025 [3][10][11] - The report highlights that the dividend sector, particularly banks and insurance, has performed well, while the consumer sector has been relatively weak due to the impact of the liquor industry [35][36] Group 2 - The report suggests that the technology sector, particularly semiconductors, components, and gaming, may present breakthrough opportunities in July [8][36] - The analysis indicates that the macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with expectations of new policy measures to support technology innovation and consumption [5][30] - The report identifies three categories of industries based on profit growth and PE ratios, emphasizing sectors like small metals, automation equipment, and precious metals as potential investment opportunities [32][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - **Steel**: The report suggests a strategy of testing short positions on rebounds for steel. The industry is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and with the arrival of the demand off - season, prices are more likely to fall without macro - policy support [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore is expected to run strongly in a narrow range. Although the supply is expected to increase, the high domestic demand provides support. The i2509 contract price is expected to be in the range of 695 - 720 yuan/ton, and the FE07 contract price in the range of 93 - 96 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term market sentiment for coking coal and coke has improved, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. The reduction in coal production and imports has alleviated the supply - surplus pressure [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is expected to show narrow - range adjustments, following the trend of the black - metal market. The supply of ferromanganese is increasing, putting pressure on prices, while the impact of ferrosilicon inventory on prices is neutral [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices of futures and spot prices of various black - industry products showed different changes last week. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2510 increased by 23 yuan/ton (0.77%), and the spot price of HRB400E:Φ20 in Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.32%) [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black - Industry Market Forecast - **Steel**: The blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.79%, and the steel - mill profitability rate was 59.31%. The demand for finished products is in the off - season, and the market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The strategy is to test short positions on rebounds [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The market was mainly affected by geopolitical factors last week. The demand for finished products was in the off - season but did not accumulate inventory. The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, but high demand provides support for prices [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal and coke continued to fluctuate last week. The 4th round of price cuts for coke by steel mills is expected to be implemented this week. The reduction in imports and production has alleviated the supply - surplus pressure [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The market reaction to the Fed's interest - rate decision was stable, but the escalation of the Middle East conflict may increase market volatility. The supply of ferromanganese is increasing, and the demand for both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon has slightly recovered [12]. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 212.18 tons (up 4.61 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 219.19 tons (down 0.78 tons week - on - week). The total inventory was 551.07 tons (down 7.01 tons week - on - week) [14][21]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The output was 325.45 tons (up 0.8 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 330.69 tons (up 10.81 tons week - on - week). The total inventory was 340.17 tons (down 5.24 tons week - on - week) [27][32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: The total import - ore port inventory (45 ports) was 13894.16 tons (down 38.98 tons week - on - week). The inventory of various ore types showed different changes [45][51]. - **Steel - Mill Inventory and Consumption**: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 8936.24 tons (up 137.56 tons week - on - week), and the daily consumption was 301.00 tons/day (up 0.57 tons/day week - on - week) [55]. - **Global Shipment**: The global total shipment was 3431.0 tons (up 242.3 tons week - on - week), with different changes in shipments from different regions [71]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory was 952.91 tons (down 18.68 tons week - on - week), and the total coking - coal inventory was 2610.4 tons (down 11.19 tons week - on - week) [101][109]. - **Production and Profit**: The average daily coke output of independent coking enterprises was 64.7 tons (down 0.3 tons week - on - week), and the average daily coking - coal output of 523 coking mines was 74.4 tons (up 0.3 tons week - on - week) [118][119]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: The spot price of ferromanganese was 5500 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the spot price of ferrosilicon was 5100 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week) [135]. - **Production and Demand**: The output of ferromanganese was 176610 tons (up 3220 tons week - on - week), and the demand was 123717 tons (up 1564 tons week - on - week). The output of ferrosilicon was 9.79 tons (up 0.28 tons week - on - week), and the demand was 19964.4 tons (up 357 tons week - on - week) [143][150].

Report Core Information Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Report Core View - The report provides a weekly preview of hot topics, including important events and data releases that may impact the futures market, and analyzes the potential effects of these events on different types of futures prices [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Key Focus - From June 24th to 27th, the 16th Session of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held in Beijing [2] - On June 24th at 22:00, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify on the semi - annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee [2] - On June 26th at 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will release the final value of Q1 2025 GDP [2] - On June 27th at 09:30, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the industrial enterprise profits for May [2] - On June 28th at 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will release the May PCE price index [2] This Week's Hot Topic Preview June 23rd - S&P Global will release the preliminary value of the Eurozone's June SPGI manufacturing PMI at 16:00, with an expected value of 49.8 and a previous value of 49.4. A slightly higher value may slightly boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but slightly suppress gold and silver futures prices [3] - S&P Global will release the preliminary value of the US June SPGI manufacturing PMI at 21:45, with an expected value of 51.2 and a previous value of 52. A slightly lower value may slightly suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but slightly boost gold and silver futures prices [4] - The National Association of Realtors will release US May existing - home sales at 22:00. The expected annualized total is 3.97 million units (previous 4 million), and the expected monthly rate is - 1.3% (previous - 0.5%). Lower sales may suppress non - ferrous metals futures prices but boost gold and silver futures prices [5] June 24th - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in the circulation field in mid - June at 9:30, covering 9 categories and 50 products [8] - The 16th Session of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held from June 24th to 27th, with multiple draft laws on the agenda [9] - IFO will release Germany's June IFO business climate index at 16:00, with an expected value of 88.3 and a previous value of 87.5 [10] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify on the semi - annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee at 22:00 [11] - The Conference Board will release the US June consumer confidence index at 22:00, with an expected value of 99.8 and a previous value of 98. A higher value may boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [12] - The 16th Annual Meeting of the New Champions (Summer Davos Forum) will be held from June 24th to 26th in Tianjin, with the theme of "Entrepreneurship in the New Era" [13] - The NATO Summit will be held from June 24th to 25th in The Hague, and Trump will attend [14] June 25th - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify on the semi - annual monetary policy report before the Senate Committee at 22:00 [15] - The US Department of Commerce will release US May new - home sales at 22:00. The expected seasonally - adjusted annualized total is 692,000 units (previous 743,000), and the expected monthly rate is - 6.5% (previous 10.9%). Higher sales may boost non - ferrous metals futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [16] - EIA will release the change in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending June 20th at 22:30. A continued significant decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures [17] June 26th - The US Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21st at 20:30, with an expected value of 245,000 (previous 245,000) [18] - The US Department of Commerce will release the final value of Q1 2025 GDP at 20:30. The expected annualized quarterly rate of real GDP is - 0.2% [19] - The US Department of Commerce will release the preliminary value of the May durable goods orders at 20:30, with an expected monthly rate of 8.5% (previous - 6.3%). A significantly higher value may boost non - ferrous metals futures but suppress gold and silver futures [20] - The National Association of Realtors will release the US May seasonally - adjusted pending home sales index at 22:00, with an expected monthly rate of 0% (previous - 6.3%) [21] June 27th - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce China's May industrial enterprise profits at 09:30. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to April was 1.4%, and in April it was 3% [22] - Eurostat will release the Eurozone's June economic sentiment index and industrial sentiment index at 17:00. The expected economic sentiment index is 95.3 (previous 94.8), and the expected industrial sentiment index is - 9.8 (previous - 10.3) [24] June 28th - The US Department of Commerce will release the May PCE price index at 20:30. The expected annual rate of the PCE price index is 2.3% (previous 2.1%), and the expected annual rate of the core PCE price index is 2.6% (previous 2.5%). Slightly higher values may delay the expected start of Fed rate cuts from September to November or December [25] - The US Department of Commerce will release May consumer spending at 20:30. The expected monthly rate is 0.1% (previous 0.2%). A slightly lower value may slightly suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but slightly boost gold and silver futures prices [26]

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 国际油价升至年内高位 证券研究报告 高频经济跟踪周报 20250621 需求：新房成交续升，汽车消费回暖 （1）地产方面，本周 20 城商品房成交面积环比续升，同比由正转负。二 线城市新房成交增幅较大，重点城市二手房成交面积环比大多下降。 （2）消费方面，乘用车零售日均销量和批发日均销量环比大幅上升，观影 消费低于季节性，出行表现有所分化，全国迁徙规模指数环周回暖，一线 城市地铁客运量环周回落。 生产：工业生产平稳向好，下游开工率回升 （1）中上游方面，螺纹钢开工率基本持平，PTA 开工率与石油沥青装置开 工率环周小幅下降，涤纶长丝开工率环周上升，指向基建开工或边际改善。 （2）下游方面，汽车全钢胎开工率由降转升，半钢胎开工率较上周小幅上 升，半钢胎绝对值仍高于历年同期水平，以旧换新补贴政策支持下短期内 对生产端或有一定支撑。 投资：螺纹钢表观消费偏弱，水泥价格有所回落 螺纹表观消费表现偏弱，螺纹钢价格环周下降，随着下游需求淡季到来， 螺纹钢需求或将呈现环比下滑的态势；水泥发运率下降，水泥库容比上升， 水泥价格有所回落。 贸易：港口吞吐量下降，出口集运价格续涨 （1）出口方面，港口 ...

Economic Performance Overview - Hunan Province has actively responded to external environmental impacts and implemented "seven major attacks," resulting in a stable economic operation with a positive trend [2] - From January to May, the province's industrial added value increased by 8.1% year-on-year, 1.2 percentage points faster than the same period last year [2] - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a significant increase in added value by 12.9%, contributing 4.1 percentage points to the industrial growth [2] Sectoral Growth - The metal products industry grew by 23.6%, while the electronic information manufacturing sector increased by 16.2%, and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing rose by 14.4% [2] - In the service sector, 29 out of 34 industries reported revenue growth, expanding the growth coverage to 85.3%, an increase of 5.9 percentage points from the previous year [2] - High growth rates were observed in technology service industries, with research and experimental development revenue increasing by 14.6%, and technology promotion and application services growing by 12.4% [2] Profitability and Consumption - The total profit of large-scale service enterprises increased by 21.1%, which is 27.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, with a profit margin of 5.8% [2] - Social retail sales in the province grew by 6.1% year-on-year from January to May, with a monthly growth of 7.4% in May [2] Investment and Financial Support - Fixed asset investment in the province increased by 3.8% from January to May, 0.6 percentage points faster than the previous four months [2] - Private investment also saw a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, matching the growth rate from the previous year [3] - Financial support remains strong, with total deposits in financial institutions reaching 87,311.1 billion yuan, a growth of 9.2%, and total loans amounting to 77,639.1 billion yuan, increasing by 6.9% [3] Overall Economic Outlook - Overall, macroeconomic policies have shown effectiveness, leading to a stable economic operation and enhanced resilience [3] - However, the external environment remains severe and complex, with many unstable and uncertain factors, indicating that the foundation for sustained economic recovery needs further consolidation [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, external demand drag will gradually emerge, and the macro - economy is expected to face mild downward pressure due to the high base in Q4 of last year. The "supply stronger than demand" pattern will continue, and the pressure on both supply and demand will increase marginally. [3] - Policy will continue the tone of stabilizing growth, confidence, and assets. Active fiscal and monetary tools will be implemented to boost domestic demand, stabilize the real estate market, and promote industrial transformation and upgrading. [3] - In the second half of the year, RMB asset allocation will enter a rhythm where the bond market fluctuates at a high level, the stock market captures structural opportunities, and commodities fluctuate at the bottom waiting for a driver. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 2025 H2 Domestic Macroeconomic: New Balance of Supply and Demand - **Total**: The annual GDP growth rate is expected to remain stable, with a quarterly rhythm of high in the first half and low in the second half. The full - year GDP growth rate is predicted to be 4.74%. [6] - **Structure**: The "supply stronger than demand" pattern will continue. Supply - side indicators are expected to slow down slightly, and demand - side indicators may continue to hover at a relatively low level. [8][9] - **Export**: Although exports showed resilience in Jan - May 2025, the "front - loading of demand" caused by "rush - export" will lead to a decline in external demand later. [11] - **Manufacturing Investment**: The peak of the Juglar cycle has passed, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment is expected to be 8.3%, lower than the previous high - growth state. [16] - **Real Estate Chain Data**: China is in the middle - late stage of the downward Kuznets cycle. Real estate data is hovering at a low level, but policy support may reduce its impact on the economy. [23] - **Consumption**: Consumption growth is driven by policies, but the endogenous repair momentum is still weak. The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 4.8%. [29] Policy: Stabilize Growth and Focus on Precise Regulation - **Monetary Policy**: It will maintain a moderately loose tone. The next round of easing is more likely to occur from September to Q4, with structural policies being the main focus before that. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate is expected to have a 10BP cut. [34][36] - **Fiscal Policy**: It is divided into in - budget and off - budget policies. In - budget policies are expected to increase the fiscal deficit in the second half of the year. The actual fiscal expenditure in Jan - Apr increased by 7.2% year - on - year. [39][42] Tactics of Asset Allocation under Macroeconomic Contradictions - **Macroeconomic Contradictions**: The economy showed a good start in Q1 but returned to normal in Q2. Real - economy profit recovery and domestic consumption repair need stronger policy support. [46] - **Asset Performance**: Commodities are in a bottom - oscillating market without a clear upward driver. Bonds will fluctuate at a high level, and the stock market will present a dumbbell - shaped structural market. [60][63]