据新华社消息，中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强10月14日主持召开经济形势专家和企业家座谈 会，听取对当前经济形势和下一步经济工作的意见建议。 李强在座谈会上强调，要加力提效实施逆周期调节，总量政策持续发力，用足用好政策资源，以改革办 法打通堵点卡点，增强发展动能。并从持续用力扩大内需、综合治理行业无序非理性竞争、大力支持稳 外贸稳外资等多个方面对下阶段经济工作作出部署。 四季度是全年经济收官的冲刺阶段，也是政策发力的重要窗口期。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对第一 财经表示，四季度可能推出新的增量措施，核心是财政加力、央行降息，以及更大力度推动房地产市场 止跌回稳，这些方面都有充分的政策空间。 总量政策持续发力 座谈会上，中国社会科学院美国研究所副所长徐奇渊、中央财经大学副校长陈斌开、工商银行现代金融 研究院副院长杨赫、华创证券首席宏观分析师张瑜、中国电气装备集团董事长李洪凤、合肥产投集团董 事长江鑫、黑湖科技创始人兼首席执行官周宇翔、名创优品创始人叶国富等先后发言。 他强调，对当前经济形势，要以更宽的视野准确把握，特别是从五年规划的实施来看经济发展的长期趋 势，从人流、物流、信息流、资金流的支撑来看经营主体 ...

Group 1: Profit Overview - From January to August 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises reached CNY 46,929.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%[2] - In August 2025, industrial enterprise profits grew by 20.4% year-on-year, an increase of 21.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in August was 5.83%, up by 0.90 percentage points year-on-year[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Raw materials manufacturing profits increased by 22.1%, a 10 percentage point rise from the previous month, driven by price recovery[2] - Consumer goods manufacturing profits shifted from a decline of 2.2% to a growth of 1.4%, mainly supported by the beverage and paper industries[2] - Equipment manufacturing profits grew by 7.2%, contributing 2.5 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises[2] Group 3: Financial Metrics - The growth rates of industrial enterprise assets and liabilities were 5.0% and 5.4%, respectively, both showing an increase from the previous month[2] - The inventory of finished products increased by 2.3% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Accounts receivable growth declined to 6.6%, marking a continuous decrease for five months[2] Group 4: Risks and Recommendations - Risks include the potential ineffectiveness of growth stabilization policies, overseas economic recession, and escalating geopolitical conflicts[7] - The report recommends a strong buy rating for stocks expected to outperform the market by over 20% in the next six months[8]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年09月28日 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人 李嘉豪 lijiah@longone.com.cn [基数Table_NewTitle] 效应以及营收利润率改善推动利润 增速转正 ——国内观察：2025年8月工业企业利润数据 [table_main] 投资要点 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 ➢ 事件：9月27日，国家统计局发布8月工业企业利润数据。8月，规模以上工业企业利润总 额累计同比0.9%，前值-1.7%。 ➢ 核心观点：8月利润累计同比回正，当月同比大幅回升，超季节性以及低基数均有影响。 三因素框架下，营收利润率同比的贡献较大，每百元营收成本为去年7月以来首次当月同 比减少。从各行业利润增速的变化来看，价格自上而下的传导线索并不足。往后来看，9 月工业企业利润基数仍然不高，但10月后会明显抬升，去年"924"后政策发力效果明显。 整体上，四季度利润增速或 ...

积极信号！ 9月27日，国家统计局公布数据显示，8月规模以上工业企业利润同比由上月下降1.5%转为增长20.4%，受此带动，1—8月累计，这一指标同比由上月下降 1.7%转为增长0.9%。 国家统计局表示，这是宏观政策发力显效、全国统一大市场纵深推进，叠加去年同期低基数等多重因素作用。 从分项来看，8月份，规模以上工业企业单位成本下降，营收利润率回升。原材料制造业利润增长较快，消费品制造业利润由降转增，装备制造业"压舱石"作 用明显。与今年前期不同，此次公布的数据显示，不同规模企业利润均有改善。 扭转了自今年5月份以来持续下降态势 "工业企业利润明显改善。"国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁表示，1—8月份，规模以上工业企业利润由1—7月份同比下降1.7%转为增长0.9%，扭转了自 今年5月份以来企业累计利润持续下降态势。 从三大门类看，1—8月份，制造业增长7.4%，较1—7月份加快2.6个百分点；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长9.4%，加快5.5个百分点；采矿业下降 30.6%，降幅收窄1.0个百分点。 不同规模企业利润均有改善 与今年前期不同，此次公布的数据显示，不同规模企业利润均有改善。 从月度看 ...

Core Insights - Private enterprises are increasingly becoming a key force in stabilizing foreign trade due to their flexibility and market sensitivity [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - In August, Shanghai's total imports and exports grew by 11.7% year-on-year, marking the seventh consecutive month of growth since February [1] - Exports exceeded 180 billion yuan for the first time, with a growth rate of 17.1%, while imports reached 204.35 billion yuan, growing by 7.3% [1] - For the first eight months, Shanghai's total imports and exports increased by 4.5%, with the growth rate improving by 1 percentage point compared to the first seven months [1] Group 2: Role of Private Enterprises - In August, the import and export volume of private enterprises in Shanghai surged by 31.5%, maintaining a growth rate above 30% for three consecutive months [1] - The share of private enterprises in Shanghai's total foreign trade rose to 43.1%, surpassing 40% for the first time, contributing 11.5 percentage points to the city's overall trade growth [1] Group 3: Market Diversification - Exports to emerging markets such as Africa, ASEAN, the Middle East, and India grew by 45% in August, contributing 10.7 percentage points to the overall export growth [1] - Notable export performance was observed in shipbuilding and marine engineering equipment, which grew by 10.6 times, and engineering machinery, which increased by 72.8%, together driving a 16.5 percentage point increase in exports to these emerging markets [1] Group 4: High-End Manufacturing and Imports - In August, the export of electromechanical products grew by 19%, accounting for nearly 70% of the total export value, with significant growth in shipbuilding and high-end machine tools at 45.1% and 43.7% respectively [2] - The export of "new three samples" including electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products saw growth rates of 37.1%, 112.1%, and 39% respectively [2] - Imports of raw materials such as metal ores and copper products increased by 15% and 21% respectively, driven by stable industrial and consumer demand [2] - The import of semiconductor manufacturing equipment and computer accessories surged by 105.5% and 55.2% respectively, supported by the development of the integrated circuit and artificial intelligence industries [2] - Consumption-related policies have led to significant growth in imports of consumer goods, with beef, milk powder, perfume, and sports equipment increasing by 10.5%, 43.2%, 29.4%, and 35.8% respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The fixed asset investment growth in China has slowed down in the first half of the year due to a decline in manufacturing and infrastructure investments, alongside a significant drop in real estate investment [1][3]. Investment Growth and Structure - In the first half of the year, total fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 24,865.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from January to May; after adjusting for price factors, the growth was 5.3% [1]. - Infrastructure investment grew by 4.6%, a slowdown of 1.0 percentage points; manufacturing investment increased by 7.5%, down 1.0 percentage points; real estate development investment fell by 11.2%, with the decline widening by 0.5 percentage points [1][5]. - Despite the slowdown, the investment structure is improving, with high-tech manufacturing and service investments maintaining rapid growth, and green energy investments seeing significant increases [1][2]. High-Tech and Green Investments - High-tech manufacturing investment grew by 26.3% in aerospace and 21.5% in computer and office equipment manufacturing [2]. - High-tech service investment rose by 8.6%, with information service investment increasing by 37.4% [2]. - Green energy investment surged, with electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply investment growing by 22.8%, contributing 55.6% to total investment growth [2]. Major Projects and Infrastructure - Major projects under the "Two New" initiative have been effectively supporting investment, with infrastructure investment growing by 4.6%, higher than the overall investment growth [5][6]. - The total investment in projects (excluding real estate) increased by 6.6%, with projects planned to invest over 100 million yuan growing by 5.6% [6]. - The government has allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of "Two New" construction projects, with a total of 800 billion yuan planned for the year [6]. Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with sales and investment declining, leading to a significant drag on overall investment [6]. - The central government is focusing on establishing a new model for real estate development, emphasizing urban renewal and quality housing construction, which could release over 8 trillion yuan in market potential annually [7].

Group 1: CPI Marginal Improvement - In June, the CPI showed a marginal improvement with a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, reversing a three-month trend of -0.1%, primarily driven by rising domestic fuel prices and a rebound in durable goods prices [2] - Food prices performed better than seasonal averages, with fresh vegetable prices increasing by 0.7% month-on-month, compared to a historical average decline of -3.9% [2] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in June, recovering from a previous decline of -1.7%, influenced by rising international oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [2][3] Group 2: PPI Continued Pressure - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month in June, marking the seventh consecutive month of negative growth, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, the largest drop since August 2023 [4] - The decline in production material prices was a significant factor, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%, compared to a historical average of -0.1% [4] - Life goods prices remained sluggish, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, reflecting weak seasonal performance [4] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - CPI is expected to show a mild recovery, with an annual increase projected around 0%, higher than the first half's average of -0.1% [5] - Core CPI is anticipated to rise by approximately 0.6% for the year, supported by policies aimed at improving supply-demand structures [6] - PPI is expected to remain under pressure, with an annual decline projected at around -2.3%, an improvement from the first half's -2.8% [6] Group 4: International and Domestic Commodity Trends - Internationally, commodity prices are expected to show increased divergence and reduced volatility, with oil prices likely to continue declining due to OPEC+ production increases and weakening global demand [7] - Domestically, weak internal demand persists, particularly in real estate and infrastructure investments, which are not expected to drive resource prices upward [7] - The manufacturing sector is facing challenges with low capacity utilization, indicating a phase of oversupply in certain industries [7]

Investment Overview - In the first five months of 2025, total fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 191,947 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [2] Group 1: Equipment Investment - Equipment and tool purchase investment experienced significant growth, increasing by 17.3% year-on-year, which is 13.6 percentage points higher than the overall investment growth rate; it contributed 63.6% to the total investment growth, adding 2.3 percentage points [3] Group 2: Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment maintained steady growth, rising by 5.6% year-on-year, which is 1.9 percentage points higher than the overall investment growth rate; it contributed 34.5% to the total investment growth, an increase of 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous four months [4] Group 3: Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment continued to grow rapidly, with an 8.5% year-on-year increase, 4.8 percentage points higher than the overall investment growth rate; it contributed 56.5% to the total investment growth, improving by 1.9 percentage points from the previous four months [5] Group 4: High-tech Service Investment - High-tech service investment showed a positive trend, growing by 11.6% year-on-year, with a 0.3 percentage point acceleration compared to the previous four months; information service investment surged by 41.4% [6] Group 5: Private Investment - Private project investment remained stable, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% when excluding real estate development; notable growth was seen in the accommodation and catering industry at 25.3% and in cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors at 10.0% [7] Group 6: Green Energy Investment - Green energy investment grew rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 25.4% in the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sectors; this contributed 43.8% to the total investment growth, adding 1.6 percentage points [8] Group 7: Large Project Investment - Investment in projects with planned total investments of 1 billion yuan or more increased by 6.5% year-on-year, which is 2.8 percentage points higher than the overall investment growth rate, contributing 3.6 percentage points to total investment growth [9]

Economic Performance - In Q1 2025, China's GDP reached 31.8758 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2%[3] - The industrial added value grew by 6.5% year-on-year, while the service sector's added value increased by 5.3%[4] - Fixed asset investment rose by 4.2% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment growing by 5.8%[16][20] Trade and Exports - Total goods trade in Q1 2025 was 10.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with exports at 6.13 trillion yuan, up 6.9%[28] - The export of mechanical and electrical products reached 5.29 trillion yuan, growing by 7.7%[28] - The share of domestic brand exports increased to 22.8%, reflecting a 10.2% growth in this segment[28] Price Stability - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices dropping by 1.5%[31] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.3% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in the decline compared to previous quarters[33] Employment and Fiscal Policy - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.3% in Q1 2025, showing stability in the job market[38] - National general public budget revenue was 6.0 trillion yuan, down 1.1% year-on-year, while expenditures increased by 4.2% to 7.3 trillion yuan[40]