Core Viewpoint - Global central banks are entering a new phase of policy adjustment characterized by unprecedented divergence, with Japan initiating asset reduction, the Federal Reserve implementing preventive rate cuts, while the European and UK central banks remain cautious amid persistent inflation pressures [1][18]. Central Bank Policy Summary Federal Reserve (Fed) - The Fed lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.0%-4.25% as a risk management measure, citing a slowdown in economic growth and a cooling labor market [3][4]. - The decision was influenced by a combination of high inflation and weakening employment, with the core PCE index rising to 2.9% in August [3][4]. - Fed Chairman Powell emphasized that future policy decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis without preset paths [5]. Bank of Japan (BOJ) - The BOJ maintained its policy rate at 0.5% but announced an annual reduction plan for its substantial ETF and J-REITs holdings, starting with approximately 620 billion yen (about 4.2 billion USD) [6][7]. - This marks a significant step towards normalizing the ultra-loose monetary policy that has been in place for over a decade [6]. - The BOJ's core CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, indicating persistent inflationary pressures despite a slight decline from July [7]. European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) - The ECB kept its deposit rate at 2%, citing strong economic resilience in the Eurozone and inflation nearing the 2% target [9][10]. - The BoE also maintained its rate at 4%, highlighting significant medium-term inflation pressures despite a slight GDP growth [11][12]. - Both central banks are cautious about further easing due to persistent inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainties [10][11]. Other Central Banks - The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% to address the economic impact of U.S. tariffs, with a focus on balancing economic and inflation risks [14][15]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia reduced its cash rate to 3.6%, indicating a cautious approach to further easing based on economic data and external risks [16][17]. Global Monetary Policy Landscape - The global monetary policy environment is shifting towards a phase of high uncertainty, with central banks facing complex challenges including inflation dynamics, external risks from trade policies, and political instability [18]. - The divergence in policy approaches among major central banks reflects a transition from coordinated actions to a more nuanced, differentiated strategy in response to varying economic conditions [18].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points reflects a response to economic data indicating a weakening job market, despite ongoing inflationary pressures [1][2][6] Economic Data and Employment - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut in 2025 after a nine-month interval [1] - August non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, significantly below market expectations and down from a revised 79,000 in July [1] - Revised data indicates that from April 2024 to March 2025, the U.S. added 911,000 fewer jobs than initially reported, highlighting a more sluggish employment market [1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-over-year in August, the largest increase since January, with a median inflation forecast of 3% for the end of 2025, above the Fed's 2% target [2] - Powell emphasized that the rate cut was a data-driven decision aimed at mitigating risks from a softening job market, rather than a political maneuver [2][5] Political Dynamics and Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's desire for a more aggressive rate cut stems from the U.S. national debt exceeding $37 trillion, with interest payments becoming a significant budgetary concern [3] - The Fed's decision-making process is designed to resist short-term political pressures, with Powell receiving broad support from the financial and academic communities [5][6] - The Fed's 25 basis point cut is seen as a cautious response to economic conditions, maintaining its independence despite external pressures from the Trump administration [5][6] Market Reactions and Global Context - Following the rate cut announcement, U.S. stock indices initially rose before retreating, while the dollar experienced volatility, indicating mixed market reactions [4] - Approximately 90% of businesses plan to raise prices within three months, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns [4] - Global central banks are responding differently to the Fed's actions, with the European Central Bank remaining steady and the Bank of Japan considering rate hikes, showcasing varied economic conditions across regions [5]

美联储内部正在上演一场罕见的多空对决，点阵图背后的分裂信号预示今年货币政策可能充满变数。 本次美联储降息决定并非一致通过。FOMC投票结果显示，11票赞成、1票反对。唯一的反对票来自新 任美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰，他主张更大幅度的 。 这一异议凸显了央行内部就如何有力应对不断变化的经济条件的辩论日益加剧。 点阵图进一步暴露了美联储高层的分裂态势。19位FOMC成员中，有9人支持年内再降息50个基点至 3.5?.75%，6人支持将利率维持在当前的4?.25%区间，1人甚至支持年内再降息125个基点。 这种分布不是偶然，而是反映了决策层对经济基本面判断的根本性差异。 美联储在声明中对就业市场的判断也发生了微妙变化，从"失业率依然较低，劳动力市场状况保持良 好"转变为" ，但仍保持在低位"。 美联储此次降息决定建立在复杂的经济数据基础上。8月份美国失业率升至4.3%，创四年来新高，同期 非农就业新增人数远低于预期。 北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至4.00?.25%。这是自 2024年12月以来美联储 ，标志着货币政策从紧缩转向宽松的关键转折点。 美联储主席鲍威尔将此次降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing deepening divisions regarding further interest rate cuts, with some officials expressing concerns about aggressive easing potentially hindering inflation from returning to the 2% target, while others advocate for faster cuts due to perceived economic weaknesses [1][5]. Group 1: Divergent Views on Rate Cuts - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee are cautious about further rate cuts, fearing that excessive easing could impede inflation from falling to the Fed's 2% target [1]. - Schmid believes the current policy stance is slightly restrictive and in an appropriate position, while Goolsbee warns against multiple aggressive cuts based solely on employment data [1][3]. - In contrast, Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran are pushing for more aggressive rate cuts, arguing that inflation is close enough to the target and the labor market is weaker than expected [1][5]. Group 2: Emphasis on Inflation and Employment - Schmid emphasizes the necessity of a moderately tight policy, expressing concerns that inflation may remain sticky and could rise to 3% instead of falling to the 2% target [2]. - Goolsbee highlights the risk of stagflation, indicating that the current environment shows signs of such pressures, complicating the Fed's dual mandate of managing inflation and employment [3]. - Bowman points out that the labor market is more fragile than anticipated, suggesting that the committee should take decisive action given the low average job growth since April [5]. Group 3: Calls for Aggressive Easing - Miran advocates for immediate and substantial rate cuts, suggesting a reduction of 150 to 200 basis points to reach a neutral rate, arguing that the current 4% to 4.25% rate is overly restrictive [5]. - He was the only official to vote against the recent 25 basis point cut, favoring a 50 basis point reduction instead, reflecting a more aggressive stance on monetary policy [5].

在批评鲍威尔的同时，贝森特对新上任的美联储理事米兰大加赞赏 ，称其为理事会注入了"新鲜血液"。 由特朗普总统提名、并于上周美联储会议前获得参议 院批准的米兰，是一位激进降息的倡导者。 美国财政部长贝森特罕见地公开表达了对美联储主席鲍威尔的不满，批评其未能为降息建立清晰的议程，凸显出美国政府与美联储在货币政策路径上的分歧日 益加剧。 贝森特周三在接受媒体采访时表示， 当前的利率"限制性过强，需要下调"。 他指出， 对于鲍威尔未能在年底前释放至少降息100至150个基点的信号，他感 到"有些惊讶"。 贝森特的此番言论，与鲍威尔前一日的审慎表态形成鲜明对比。鲍威尔周二在罗德岛州的一场活动中重申，美联储正面临劳动力市场走弱和通胀上行风险并存 的"挑战性局面"。他强调，双向风险意味着不存在"无风险的路径"，暗示了其在进一步放宽政策上的谨慎态度。 这场公开的政策分歧，发生在白宫正在物色鲍威尔继任者的微妙时刻。贝森特透露， 他正在面试11名候选人以接替鲍威尔的职位，他正在寻找一位思想开放的 人来担任美联储主席。 新任理事的异议之声 鲍威尔的审慎立场 在权衡未来决策时，鲍威尔正努力在两大对立的经济风险之间寻找平衡。据他在普罗 ...

国际黄金周三（9月24日）扩大回落大幅收跌，开盘价3779.35美元/盎司，最高价3785.65美元/盎司，最低价 3739.75美元/盎司，收盘价3741.07美元/盎司。 消息面： 行情回顾： 技术面： 据英国金融时报报道，美联储古尔斯比警告不要进行一系列降息操作，称就业市场的急剧放缓并不意味着经济 衰退即将来临。古尔斯比在上周的联邦公开市场委员会会议上支持降息25个基点。但他最新表示，在即将到来 的政策投票中，他可能不太愿意支持进一步降息。他表示："如果基于（通胀）可能只是暂时的且会自行消退 的假设，就过度提前进行大量降息，我对此感到不安。"他还补充说，许多中西部企业仍然担心通胀尚未得到 控制。古尔斯比称，芝加哥联储编制的一组新的劳动力统计数据，该数据整合了几份经济报告以生成实时数 据，显示就业市场仅出现"温和"降温，并不表明美国经济正处于急剧放缓的困境中。古尔斯比说："我们的就 业市场总体上仍然稳定可靠。"古尔斯比表示，他支持上周的降息决定，因为有迹象表明特朗普的贸易战对通 胀的影响比许多经济学家担心的要小，部分原因是美国的许多主要贸易伙伴对报复白宫不太感兴趣。 美联储戴利表示，目前经济衰退风险非常低 ...

每经编辑｜段炼 当地时间9月24日，美股连续第二个交易日下跌，投资者消化美联储主席鲍威尔前一天的谨慎表态，等待本周晚些时候发布的关键经济数据。 截至收盘，道指跌171.50点，跌幅0.37%，报46121.28点，纳指跌0.34%，报22497.86点，标普500指数跌0.28%，报6637.97点。全市超3300只股票下跌。 当地时间9月23日，美联储主席鲍威尔在一场经济展望会上表示，数据表明，近期经济增速有所放缓，失业率处于低位但略有上升。就业增长放缓，就业 下行风险上升，同时通胀上升且仍处于较高水平，风险平衡明显发生变化。鲍威尔还表示，从多个指标来看，当前美股股票价格的估值都相当高。 宣布与英伟达合作，阿里股价大涨 国际金价大跌，油价大涨 明星科技股表现分化，特斯拉涨4.0%，微软涨0.2%，亚马逊跌0.2%，苹果和英伟达跌0.8%，谷歌跌1.8%。甲骨文跌1.7%，有报道称该公司计划通过发行 公司债券筹集150亿美元资金。英特尔涨超6%，消息称公司正在寻求引入苹果投资。矿企业Lithium Americas飙升95.8%，消息称美国政府正考虑入股这家 加拿大公司。 | く 気方 | 知名美股 ○ O ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储古尔斯比：我们的就业市场总体上仍保持稳定且表现良好。 ...

新任理事的异议之声 在批评鲍威尔的同时，贝森特对新上任的美联储理事米兰大加赞赏，称其为理事会注入了"新鲜血液"。 由特朗普总统提名、并于上周美联储会议前获得参议院批准的米兰，是一位激进降息的倡导者。 据报道，在美联储最近一次决定降息25个基点的会议上，米兰投了反对票，他更倾向于降息50个基点。 贝森特称赞道： "米兰在一周内所说的，比拜登政府任命的理事在整个任期内说的还要多"。 美国财政部长贝森特罕见地公开表达了对美联储主席鲍威尔的不满，批评其未能为降息建立清晰的议 程，凸显出美国政府与美联储在货币政策路径上的分歧日益加剧。 贝森特周三在接受媒体采访时表示，当前的利率"限制性过强，需要下调"。他指出，对于鲍威尔未能在 年底前释放至少降息100至150个基点的信号，他感到"有些惊讶"。 贝森特的此番言论，与鲍威尔前一日的审慎表态形成鲜明对比。鲍威尔周二在罗德岛州的一场活动中重 申，美联储正面临劳动力市场走弱和通胀上行风险并存的"挑战性局面"。他强调，双向风险意味着不存 在"无风险的路径"，暗示了其在进一步放宽政策上的谨慎态度。 这场公开的政策分歧，发生在白宫正在物色鲍威尔继任者的微妙时刻。贝森特透露，他正在面试 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that despite the recent interest rate cut, the current monetary policy stance remains "moderately restrictive," suggesting potential for further rate cuts if labor market weakness continues to outweigh inflation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4%–4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025, described by Powell as a "risk management cut" to address warning signs in the labor market [1]. - Powell highlighted the dual risks of inflation and employment, stating that rapid or excessive rate cuts could keep inflation around 3%, deviating from the Fed's 2% target, while prolonged tight policies could unnecessarily suppress the labor market [2]. - Recent data indicates a significant slowdown in U.S. job growth, complicating the assessment of economic conditions, with labor supply shrinking due to stricter immigration enforcement policies [2][4]. Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Powell emphasized the need for vigilance regarding the inflation effects of tariffs imposed by President Trump, noting that tariff increases would take time to filter through supply chains, leading to a temporary rise in price levels over several quarters [2][3]. - The latest data and surveys suggest that price increases are primarily due to tariff hikes rather than broader price pressures [3]. Group 3: Market Valuation and Financial Stability - Powell acknowledged that stock market prices are relatively high, indicating that the Fed monitors the overall financial environment and assesses whether its policies are influencing it as intended [5]. - Despite recognizing the high valuations in the stock market, Powell stated that it is not currently a time of rising financial stability risks [5].