Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a recovery in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the consumer sector, with the Hang Seng Index showing positive movement and the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735) gaining 0.12% [1] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, which includes 50 large-cap, liquid consumer-related stocks within the Stock Connect range, reflecting the overall performance of consumer stocks [1] - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the warehouse index for May was 50.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued expansion for seven consecutive months, with strong demand in food, agricultural products, home appliances, and daily necessities [1] Group 2 - Zhongyou Securities noted that the process of consumer recovery is gradual and characterized by a spiral upward trend, indicating that the worst phase of consumption has passed [2] - The consumption data for the Dragon Boat Festival this year was deemed average and in line with expectations, suggesting a slow recovery process influenced by various policy measures [2] - The company remains optimistic about long-term investment opportunities in the consumer sector, driven by policies aimed at stabilizing income and short-term benefits from consumption vouchers [2]

营收、利润持续承压 财报显示，2024年，杭州解百实现营业收入17.53亿元，较上年减少13.55%，归母净利润2.47亿元，同 比下降4.92%。根据5月15日披露的2024年年度股东大会会议资料，2024年，公司营收完成年初董事会 计划目标的85.66%，归属于母公司所有者的净利润完成年初董事会计划目标的89.38%。 今年一季度，公司经营状况仍未好转，期内实现营业收入4.80亿元，同比下降6.21%；归母净利润为 0.87亿元，同比下降29.58%；扣非归母净利润为0.86亿元，同比下降27.96%。 本报记者 李贝贝 上海报道 6月3日上午，杭州解百集团股份有限公司（下称"杭州解百"，600814.SH）举行2024年及2025年一季度 线上业绩说明会，《华夏时报》记者以投资者身份就公司经营业绩波动、利润下滑仍坚持分红，以及 2025年经营目标等向杭州解百董事长、总经理毕玲进行了提问。 财报显示，2024年，杭州解百实现营业收入17.53亿元，较上年减少13.55%，归母净利润同比下降 4.92%。今年一季度，公司归母净利润、扣非净利润等数据仍继续下滑。毕玲向记者表示，因为宏观经 济波动导致整体消费复 ...

Market Review - The A-share market continued its rebound on June 4, with the ChiNext Index rising by 1.11% to close at 2230.45 points, driven primarily by the strong performance of the consumer sector [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.42%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.78%, indicating a broad market rally with increased trading volume compared to the previous day [1] - Northbound capital saw a net inflow of approximately 3.5 billion yuan, marking the third consecutive day of net buying, with foreign investments focusing on consumer and new energy sectors [1] Consumer Sector Surge - The consumer sector emerged as the market focus, with significant gains across sub-sectors such as food and beverage, home appliances, and retail [3] - Key drivers included strong performances in food and beverage stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Haitian Flavoring, both rising over 3% [3] - Home appliance stocks benefited from the upcoming 618 shopping festival and relaxed real estate policies, with major players like Midea Group and Gree Electric Appliances leading the gains [3] - Retail stocks, particularly duty-free and department store concepts, were active, with China Duty Free Group seeing an intraday increase of over 5% [3] - Recent government policies, such as the "Action Plan for Promoting Consumption Upgrades," have bolstered market confidence [3] - Improved earnings expectations for leading consumer companies, along with the approaching summer consumption peak, have led institutions to favor valuation recovery in this sector [3] - Continuous inflow of foreign capital into consumer stocks has further propelled their prices [3] ChiNext Index Leadership - The ChiNext Index outperformed the main boards, primarily due to rebounds in the new energy sector, with major stocks like CATL and EVE Energy recovering [6] - The consumer electronics sector also showed signs of recovery, with Apple supply chain stocks like Luxshare Precision and Lens Technology rising over 4% [6] - Increased risk appetite among investors, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, has alleviated valuation pressures on growth stocks [6] Institutional Perspectives - Optimistic views suggest that the current rebound may continue, while cautious voices highlight the need for monitoring trading volumes and fundamental validations [5][6] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) believes that the consumer sector is at a historical low in terms of valuation and may enter a mid-term recovery phase due to policy catalysts [6] - Citic Securities indicates that the ChiNext Index may challenge the 2250-point resistance level in the short term, recommending focus on high-certainty performance leaders [6] - Some analysts warn that the market's trading volume has not significantly increased, suggesting potential short-term profit-taking pressures [6] - Tianfeng Securities emphasizes the need to verify whether consumer data can sustain improvements, advising investors to avoid chasing high prices [6] Future Outlook - Continuous monitoring of the 618 sales data and summer consumption performance is essential; if demand exceeds expectations, the sector's rally may extend [9] - The earnings reports of key growth stocks in the ChiNext Index will be crucial in influencing the index's performance [9] - Short-term attention may be directed towards second-tier leaders in the consumer sector for potential rebound opportunities, while a balanced allocation between consumer and technology growth sectors is recommended for the medium to long term [9]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer recovery process is described as a gradual and spiral ascent, with the worst phase of consumption already behind. Current consumption data aligns with expectations, indicating a slow recovery supported by various policies aimed at boosting consumer spending [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 4, 2025, the CSI Major Consumer Index (000932) increased by 0.21%, with notable gains from stocks such as GaiBao Pet (301498) up 6.80% and Huaxi Bio (688363) up 2.78% [1]. - The Major Consumer ETF (159672) rose by 0.51%, closing at 0.78 yuan [1]. Group 2: ETF Performance Metrics - Since its inception, the Major Consumer ETF has recorded a highest monthly return of 24.35% and an average monthly return of 4.87% [2]. - The ETF's maximum drawdown this year is 5.57%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.34% [2]. - The management fee for the ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, making it one of the lowest in its category [2]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the CSI Major Consumer Index is 19.69, indicating it is at a historical low, being below 96.02% of the time over the past year [2]. - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Major Consumer Index account for 67.15% of the index, with notable companies including Yili (600887) and Kweichow Moutai (600519) [2]. Group 4: Stock Performance Overview - The performance of key stocks within the index shows mixed results, with Kweichow Moutai (600519) up 0.16% and Yili (600887) down 0.03% [4]. - Other significant stocks like Wuliangye (000858) and Moutai (600809) also experienced slight declines [4].

-17% -12% -7% -2% 3% 8% 13% 18% 23% 28% 2024-06 2024-08 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 2025-06 社会服务 沪深300 证券研究报告：社会服务|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 8037.22 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 9343.57 | | 52 | 周最低 | 5985.5 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 交运数据：小个位数增长。据中国交通报数据，2025 年 5 月 31 日至 6 月 2 日（端午节假期期间），预计全社会跨区域人员流动量累 计 6.57 亿人次，日均 2.19 亿人次，同比去年端午增长 3.0%。其中， 铁路客运量日均同比增长2.3%，公路人员流动量日均同比增长3.14%， 水路客运量日均同比下降 1.65%，民航客运量日均同比增长 1.22%。 出入境：小个位数增长。据国家移民管理局数据，今年端午节假 期全国边检机关共计保障 590.7 万人次中外人员出入境， ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong consumer sector is actively performing, with the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index showing a strong upward trend [1] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735) increased by 1.36%, with a trading volume exceeding 27 million and a turnover rate over 4% [1] - Key stocks in the consumer sector include Smoore International, XPeng Motors, Pop Mart, Geely Automobile, Li Auto, and Xiaomi, all showing significant gains [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce has launched the 2025 "Service Consumption Season" to promote integrated development in various sectors such as tourism, food, sports, and digital services [1] - The initiative aims to stimulate service consumption through promotional activities, experience events, and skill competitions, enhancing supply quality and unlocking consumption potential [1] - Citic Securities forecasts a high certainty of continued leisure tourism demand into 2025, with a focus on the recovery of the service sector and experience-based consumption [2] - Citic Jian Investment highlights the stable performance of the food and beverage sector in Q1, with a positive outlook on the recovery of consumption driven by government initiatives [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market is entering a critical phase of competition, with potential for increased volatility due to current policy signals, complex overseas variables, and subtle technical characteristics [1] - The People's Bank of China has emphasized "timely rate cuts" and has implemented liquidity support measures, but the exact timing of these policies remains uncertain, leading to market speculation and potential short-term selling pressure [1][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index is testing key support levels around 3347 points, with 3300 points acting as a critical bull-bear line; a breach could trigger automated stop-loss orders [3] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in June may signal delayed rate cuts, which could strengthen the US dollar and pressure capital flows to emerging markets, impacting A-share growth stock valuations [3][4] - Trade policy risks, particularly regarding tariffs from the previous US administration, pose potential threats to China's export sectors, such as solar and electronics, which could see increased costs and reduced market share [3][4] Group 3 - The return of incremental capital is crucial for market recovery; historical data shows a 67% probability of increased trading volume on the first trading day after the holiday, but a volume below 1.2 trillion yuan may limit the rebound [4] - The technology growth sector is highlighted as a focus area, particularly in AI and semiconductor industries, which are benefiting from strong policy support, although caution is advised regarding overvalued stocks [5][7] Group 4 - Defensive asset allocation is recommended, with high-dividend stocks and resilient consumer sectors being prioritized; state-owned banks and regional power companies are noted for their stable cash flows and attractive dividend yields [6][8] - Essential consumer sectors, such as pork and food processing, are expected to perform well due to anticipated price increases and consumer recovery, providing a safe haven during market downturns [6][8] Group 5 - The market's adjustment is seen as a result of a policy vacuum and overseas disturbances, but the underlying logic of weak domestic economic recovery and industrial upgrades remains intact [9] - Investors are advised to maintain a strategy of "keeping core positions while being flexible with trading" and to wait for policy catalysts from the July Politburo meeting to seize long-term investment opportunities [9]

Company Dynamics - Moutai is set to launch ten new products in five countries as part of its "Going Global" series, with a release planned for the 2025 Osaka World Expo [1] - Meituan has initiated a promotional campaign for Moutai, offering limited-time sales of 1,499 yuan per bottle during the 618 shopping festival [2] - The Moutai Airport initiative to allow passengers to purchase Moutai with a 100% winning chance was announced but subsequently canceled [3] Industry Trends - Tsingtao Brewery has emphasized its "fresh beer" strategy, focusing on key products like classic, pure draft, and white beer to drive growth [4] - China Resources Snow Beer has reported a significant increase in sales, with daily sales of a new product surpassing 40,000 cans [5] - Yingjia Wine has set a revenue target of 7.6 billion yuan for 2025, expecting a 3.49% year-on-year growth [6] Regulatory Changes - A new national standard for sauce-flavored liquor has been implemented, clarifying definitions and production processes to aid consumer understanding [7] Market Performance - JD.com reported a 150% year-on-year increase in sales for premium liquor during the 618 shopping festival, with specific categories seeing even higher growth [8] Executive Changes - Rémy Cointreau has appointed Franck Marilly as the new CEO, replacing Eric Vallat amid declining sales [9] - Pernod Ricard has also made leadership changes in its cognac division, reflecting adjustments in response to market challenges [10] - Shanxi Fenjiu has elected Wu Yuefei as the new vice chairman of its board [11] Corporate Restructuring - Wuliangye has undergone management changes within its sales company, integrating its brand management and sales functions [12] - Chongqing Beer has welcomed a new CFO from PepsiCo, indicating a strategic shift in its financial leadership [13] - Luzhou Laojiao has seen the resignation of a board member, marking a significant change in its governance [14] Market Outlook - CITIC Securities has indicated that the beverage and beer sectors are expected to benefit from seasonal demand and government initiatives to boost consumption [15] - New products from Jiuziyuan are being introduced at competitive prices, aiming to capture market interest during the festive season [16]

Group 1: Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector has recently gained attention from institutions, with companies like Zhongwei Semiconductor, Weicai Technology, and Naxin Micro being upgraded from "hold" to "buy" due to accelerated domestic substitution and surging AI demand [3] - Weicai Technology turned profitable in Q1, attracting positive ratings as it focuses on high-performance chip testing, indicating strong order backlogs [3] - Dinglong Co., a leader in polishing pads, reported over 70% profit growth in Q1, leading to a "buy" recommendation from Zhongyin Securities, highlighting the long-term logic of domestic semiconductor material substitution [3] Group 2: Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector, particularly liquor stocks, has seen increased institutional interest, with companies like Kweichow Moutai, Jinshiyuan, and Qingdao Beer being heavily researched [3] - Kweichow Moutai's recent shareholder meeting announced a dividend of 34.6 billion, showcasing its strategic resilience and ecosystem [3] - CITIC Securities has suggested focusing on segments like snacks and beverages, driven by consumer recovery and high earnings certainty, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Bairun Co. receiving rating upgrades based on consumption upgrades and channel innovation [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The core strategy behind recent institutional upgrades is betting on domestic substitution and consumer recovery, with a focus on selecting companies with technological breakthroughs in semiconductors and leading firms in the food and beverage sector [5] - Investors are advised to consider buying on dips rather than chasing high valuations, especially in the semiconductor sector where valuations are already high, with leading stocks like SMIC and Cambrian having P/E ratios above 70 [4][5] - In the food and beverage sector, competition remains fierce, particularly in the liquor industry, necessitating a focus on companies with solid dividends and low inventory pressure [4][5]

先说这流动数据，甭管是旅游、探亲还是出差，背后都是真金白银的消费。端午作为上半年最后一个小长假，能撬动这么多人"动起来"，说明啥？消费者兜 里有钱了，心里也愿意花钱了！你想啊，旅游得订酒店吧？跨省得坐高铁、飞机吧？到了地方得吃吃喝喝、逛逛景点吧？这一套下来，旅游、酒店、餐饮、 交通这些行业，端午期间指定忙得热火朝天。就拿旅游来说，现在年轻人爱"特种兵旅游"，老年人爱"慢游养生"，不管哪种，都在给旅游产业链"输血"。酒 店行业呢，节前不少平台就说订单量涨了，价格也稳中有升，这就是消费复苏的信号啊。 再往深了说，消费复苏对经济的拉动作用，那可是中长线投资的"晴雨表"。咱做中长线的，就爱看这些基本面的变化。比如旅游板块，过去几年受疫情影 响，不少企业日子不好过，但现在随着消费回暖，那些龙头企业的业绩是不是在慢慢回升？酒店行业里，连锁品牌的扩张速度、入住率，这些指标要是持续 向好，是不是值得咱多盯两眼？还有餐饮、免税这些和消费直接挂钩的行业，只要消费大环境起来了，它们的基本面大概率也会跟着改善。 当然，咱也得理性看。6.57亿人次流动，短期肯定能让相关行业"火一把"，但中长线投资还得看企业的持续盈利能力。就像旅游行业 ...