2025年06月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：油价大幅上涨，估值重塑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：成本推升，反套离场 | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：重回震荡承压格局 | 6 | | 沥青：暂时震荡 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 10 | | PP：价格小涨，成交一般 | 12 | | 烧碱：高利润背景下估值承压 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡偏弱 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：短期驱动仍向下，弱势运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：地缘风险仍在，暂时观望避险 | 24 | | PVC：短期震荡，趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：反弹趋势延续，近月相对偏弱 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油：强势仍在，外盘现货高低硫价差继续上行 | 29 | | 集运指数（欧线）：高位震荡，10-12反套持有 | 30 | | 短 ...

Report Overview - The report is a weekly analysis of the hog and corn markets by Caida Futures, dated May 12, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The hog price is expected to remain weakly stable, with supply likely to increase and consumption support insufficient [5] - The corn market may experience a short - term high - level adjustment, with limited upside space and weakening upward momentum [7] Summary by Category Hog Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Last week, the hog futures contract LH2509 closed at 13,925 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous week. The national average price of external ternary live hogs was 14.92 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg week - on - week [5] - **Profit Situation**: As of May 9, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 84.33 yuan/head, down 0.72 yuan/head week - on - week; the profit from purchasing piglets was 58.46 yuan/head, up 9.93 yuan/head week - on - week. The pig - grain ratio was 6.44, down 0.15 week - on - week [5] - **Market Analysis**: The hog spot price continued to fluctuate narrowly. After the holiday, the supply of standard hogs from small farmers was limited, and the large - scale farms did not increase their slaughter volume. However, the downstream demand declined. The market supply - demand game continued. The sentiment of resistance to selling at a low price among farmers remained, but the enthusiasm for secondary fattening decreased, and the consumption support was insufficient. The supply is expected to increase in the future [5] Corn Market - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Last week, the corn futures contract C2507 closed at 2,375 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous week. The national average spot price of corn was 2,363.53 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [6] - **Industrial Consumption**: From May 1 to May 7, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.2197 million tons of corn, down 21,500 tons from the previous week. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 636,700 tons, up 11,900 tons from the previous week, and the weekly output of corn starch was 325,500 tons. The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 41.22%, down 4.12% from the previous week, and the weekly production of DDGS was 83,880 tons, down 9.10% [6] - **Inventory Situation**: As of May 7, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.946 million tons, with a decrease of 5.18%. As of May 9, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 4.25 million tons, and the corn inventory in the Guangdong port was 1.53 million tons [7] - **Market Analysis**: The corn spot market was strong. In the Northeast, the remaining grain at the grass - roots level was almost exhausted, and the auction of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation had obvious premium. In the North China, the arrival volume of corn at the deep - processing plants was low, and the purchase price increased significantly. The operating rate of the corn starch industry continued to rise, but the high price of raw materials might limit the production enthusiasm. The operating rate of the alcohol industry continued to decline. Short - term positive factors have been realized, and the rising space of corn will be limited by the need to clear warehouses for new wheat [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Although the supply of lead ore is relatively tight, it is the off - season for consumption, leading to poor downstream enterprise operations. Some smelting enterprises are resuming production, and it is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies in the range of 16,950 yuan/ton - 16,980 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On June 11, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 27.55 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The lead price in different regions also remained stable, and the lead scrap price was unchanged. The lead refined - scrap price difference was - 25 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On June 11, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,850 yuan/ton, closing at 16,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 21,724 lots, a decrease of 14,490 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 43,989 lots, an increase of 21 lots. The night - session closing price was 16,855 yuan/ton, a 0.09% increase [1] Spot Market Transaction - The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged. In Henan, the transaction was light; in Hunan, some enterprises raised their quotes due to inventory decline and showed a reluctance to sell. The spot market transactions showed significant differences, with some demand shifting to the primary lead market, and downstream enterprises preferred to pick up goods directly from smelters [2] Inventory - On June 11, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 53,000 tons, a decrease of 50 tons compared to the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 273,525 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies in the range of 16,950 yuan/ton - 16,980 yuan/ton [3] - **Option Strategy**: Put it on hold [3]

油脂产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月12日 干泽辉 Z0019938 | 原 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 6月11日 | 6月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8080 | 8140 | -60 | -0.74% | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7390 | 7434 | -44 | -0.59% | | 泉差 | Y2509 | ୧୦୦ | 706 | -16 | -2.27% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09+270 | 09+270 | 0 | | | 仓单 | | 17652 | 17652 | 0 | 0.00% | 棕榈油 | | | 6月11日 | 6月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8450 | 8600 | -150 | -1.74% | | 期价 | P2509 | 7898 | 7998 | -100 | -1 ...

苯乙烯产业日报 2025-06-11 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7349 | 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 3 | 566913 | -203609 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 379405 | 手) 6516 7月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7349 | 3 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | | 257237 | -9126 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | -12308 | 4397 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/ ...

| 分瑞达期货 | | --- | | RUIDA FUTURES CO.,LTD. | PVC产业日报 2025-06-11 需求淡季，高温、降雨天气抑制终端地产、基建项目动工。印度市场受BIS认证、反倾销税不确定性以及雨 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 季影响扰动。成本方面，国内电石检修装置增多，电石下游消费较强，或增强电石法成本支撑；乙烯法成 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 本或维稳。短期V2509预计震荡走势，技术上关注4710附近支撑与4900附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据 ...

聚丙烯产业日报 2025-06-11 业淡季，需求持续偏弱。海外需求季节性下滑，难以缓解国内供需矛盾。近期国际油价走强，增强油制成 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 本支撑。短期PP2509预计震荡走势，技术上关注6900附近支撑与6990附近压力。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 6960 | 19 1月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 6908 | 12 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 6903 | 14 9月合约收盘价:聚丙烯(日,元/吨) | 6960 | 19 | | | 成交量聚丙烯(PP)(日,手) | 224195 | -70833 持仓量聚丙烯(PP)(日,手) | 501412 | -10063 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:聚丙烯(日,手) | 43 ...

塑料产业日报 2025-06-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7102 | -4 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7075 | -3 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7066 | -1 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7102 | -4 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 253230 | -71292 持仓量(日,手) | 536103 | 5141 | | | 1月-5月合约价差 | 9 | -2 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 405270 | -709 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 490256 | -5 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -84986 | -704 | | 现货市场 | LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) | 7186.52 | 16.96 LLDPE(7042)均价:华东(日, ...

玉米系产业日报 2025-06-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 -5 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) | 2374 | | 2709 | -2 | | | 玉米月间价差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 127 | 吨) 9 玉米淀粉月间价差(7-9):(日,元/吨) | -66 | -2 | | 期货市场 | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) | 823945 | -45782 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 190176 | -13005 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -109138 | 31311 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, | -10428 | 6015 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) | 216495 | 手) -100 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 24237 | 0 | | | 主力合约CS-C价差(日,元/吨) | 379 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-11 多晶硅现货成交一般，盘面震荡运行 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-06-10，工业硅期货价格偏强运行，主力合约2507开于7405元/吨，最后收于7415元/吨，较前一日结算变化（60） 元/吨，变化（0.82）%。截止收盘，2507主力合约持仓155627手，2025-06-11仓单总数为59252手，较前一日变化-927 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8000-8300（0）元/吨；421#硅在8400-9000 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7500-7700（0）元/吨，99硅价格在7500-7700（0）元/吨，现货价格企稳。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10700-11500（-100）元/吨。SMM报道，据SMM统计，5月国内有机硅产 量环比4月上升6.48%，开工率增至62.37%，月内龙头企业集中规模检修，但其他部分企业装置负荷稍有提高，故 表现为运行产能减少，但实际产量增长的现象。6月虽仍有部分装置处于检修周期，但负荷的提高影响下，预计6 月排产仍将继续走高。 策略 近几日工业硅期货盘面反弹 ...