1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the spot basis is expected to have limited downside as new device production nears, approaching risk - free arbitrage, and with some mainstream PTA suppliers reducing device loads. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream production and sales and device changes [5]. - For MEG, although there is some replenishment demand at low prices, the fundamental pattern remains weak with obvious oversupply in the long - term. The price is expected to run weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to subsequent polyester loads and device changes [7]. - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for a market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PTA Daily View - **Fundamentals**: On the previous day, PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis was weak. Different delivery periods had different transaction price ranges and basis levels. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 88 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4325, the 01 - contract basis is - 89, and the market is at a premium, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 4.08 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared to the previous period, showing a bullish situation [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish situation [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [6]. - **Expectation**: With new device production imminent, the spot basis will continue to weaken, but the downside is limited. The absolute price will follow the cost side in the short term [5]. 3.2 MEG Daily View - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the ethylene glycol price was adjusted at a low level. The night - session was weak, and low - level buying increased. The morning session fluctuated upward, and the afternoon session weakened slightly. The foreign market price also fluctuated at a low level [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4090, the 01 - contract basis is 86, and the market is at a discount, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 49.5 tons, an increase of 4.99 tons compared to the previous period, showing a bearish situation [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish situation [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net short position is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [7]. - **Expectation**: Although there is some buying support at low prices, the fundamental pattern is weak, and the price is expected to run weakly in the short term [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Before the holiday, due to increased demand and rising oil prices, the polyester market sales were booming. The inventory of POY and FDY decreased rapidly, and prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, polyester prices were stable [9]. - **Negative Factors**: The 360 - million - ton load of Yisheng New Materials was fully increased, and the loads of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton devices were also increased [10]. 3.4 Current Main Logic and Risk Points - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for a market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [11]. 3.5 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Presents PTA's production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. 3.6 Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Displays ethylene glycol's production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it offers individual ratings for various commodities, including "downside space limited," "rebound in the short - term," "sideways - to - bullish," "sideways in the short - term," "sideways with oil," "weak trend," etc. [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and provides trading suggestions for multiple energy and chemical commodities. It takes into account factors such as supply - demand balance, cost changes, macro - events, and policy impacts. For example, for PX, it suggests that the supply - demand is slightly tight, and factories can consider appropriate hedging; for PTA, it recommends reducing short positions as demand is expected to improve; for rubber, it is expected to be sideways - to - bullish; for synthetic rubber, it is expected to be sideways in the short - term, etc. [12][13][15] 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **Fundamentals**: PX prices were stable with some fluctuations, and the开工 rate of Chinese PX factories decreased slightly. PTA futures oscillated, and the spot market had a general negotiation atmosphere. MEG's arrival volume at some ports was announced, and the device load and coal - based start - up rate changed. Polyester's sales volume showed partial surges, and direct - spun polyester staple sales were average. [5][10][11] - **Trend and Suggestions**: PX is in a short - term sideways market, and factories are advised to hedge when PXN rises to $250/ton. PTA is in a sideways market, and short positions should be reduced. MEG short positions should also be reduced. [12][13][14] Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The futures and spot prices of rubber increased, trading volume rose, and positions decreased. The inventory in Qingdao decreased, and overseas raw material prices were firm. [16][18] - **Trend**: Sideways - to - bullish [15] Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of butadiene rubber increased, trading volume rose, and positions decreased. The basis and monthly spread decreased. The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene in the spot market changed slightly, and the start - up rate remained stable. [19] - **Trend and Reason**: Sideways in the short - term. There is fundamental pressure due to high supply, but the valuation is moderately low, and there are macro - events for support. [21] Asphalt - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of asphalt increased slightly, trading volume and positions changed. The basis decreased, and the monthly spread increased. The wholesale prices of asphalt in different regions decreased, and the refinery start - up and inventory rates increased slightly. [23] - **Trend**: Sideways with oil [22] LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of LLDPE decreased slightly, the basis and monthly spread changed. The market price continued to decline weakly, and the terminal replenishment enthusiasm was low. [36] - **Trend and Reason**: Weak trend. Affected by the trade war, the raw material cost support weakened, the supply pressure increased, and the inventory pressure was high. [37] PP - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of PP decreased slightly, the basis and monthly spread changed. The domestic PP market was weakly sorted, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high. [40][41] - **Trend and Reason**: Weak trend. Affected by the trade war, the oil price dropped, and the supply was high. [41] Caustic Soda - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of caustic soda was 2375, the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 800, and the basis was 125. The Shandong liquid caustic soda market was generally stable. [44] - **Trend and Reason**: The far - month valuation is suppressed. There is no significant supply pressure in the short - term, but the alumina industry's low - profit pattern may affect the long - term demand. [45] Pulp - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of pulp increased slightly, trading volume rose, and positions decreased. The basis and monthly spread decreased. The domestic and international prices of pulp showed different trends. The market was stable, and the demand improvement was limited. [49][50][51] - **Trend**: Sideways [48] Glass - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of glass decreased, the basis and monthly spread changed. The domestic float glass market price decreased slightly, and the trading atmosphere was general. [53] - **Trend**: Weak trend [53] Methanol - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of methanol increased slightly, trading volume and positions decreased. The basis decreased, and the monthly spread increased. The spot price of methanol in different regions changed, and the market was regionally adjusted. [56][58] - **Trend and Reason**: Sideways with pressure. There is fundamental pressure from high imports and production, but the valuation is moderately low, and there are macro - events for support. [58][59] Urea - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of urea increased slightly, trading volume and positions decreased. The basis and monthly spread changed. The factory and trader prices of urea in different regions changed. The enterprise inventory increased, and the market trading atmosphere was weak. [61][62] - **Trend and Reason**: Sideways in the short - term, weak trend in the medium - term. The export has limited impact on price due to high social inventory, and the domestic demand is weak. [62][63] Styrene - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of styrene decreased, the EB - BZ spread increased, and the profit of non - integrated and integrated production decreased. The market is expected to be in a short - term sideways pattern, and the downstream demand is not optimistic. [64][65] - **Trend**: Short - term negative feedback [64] Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of soda ash decreased, the basis and monthly spread changed. The domestic soda ash market was stable with oscillations, and the production decreased slightly. The downstream demand was stable, and it is expected to be weakly sideways in the short - term. [69] - **Trend**: Weak trend [70] LPG and Propylene - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of LPG and propylene changed slightly, trading volume and positions changed. The spreads of different regions changed. The start - up rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation decreased slightly. [72] - **Trend**: LPG's valuation is being repaired, and there are still macro - risks; propylene is in a short - term low - level sideways pattern. [72] PVC - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of PVC was 4699, the spot price in East China was 4600, the basis was - 99, and the 1 - 5 monthly spread was - 301. The PVC price oscillated weakly, the supply was expected to increase slowly, and the demand was stable. [79] - **Trend and Reason**: Weak trend. Affected by the trade war, the cost decreased, the supply was high, the domestic demand was weak, and the inventory was accumulating. [79] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed slightly, trading volume and positions decreased. The spot prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions changed slightly, and the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil was temporarily stable. [82] - **Trend**: Fuel oil is in a narrow - range sideways pattern with short - term weakness; low - sulfur fuel oil continues to be weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil. [82] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) increased, trading volume and positions changed. The freight rates of European and US - West routes increased, and the spot freight rates of different carriers were announced. [84] - **Trend**: The reality is better than expected, and it is relatively resistant to decline. [84]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Recently, the domestic methanol production has decreased slightly as the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts exceeds the output from restored capacity. Traditional downstream demand is average, and the procurement of olefins in production areas has been postponed. Low freight rates have weakened the enthusiasm for logistics transportation, leading to an increase in domestic methanol enterprise inventories last week. [3] - Due to various factors, the unloading of foreign vessels at ports has fallen short of expectations, resulting in a decrease in methanol port inventories last week. The inventory in East China has decreased as提货 performance is good, while the inventory in South China has increased due to both imported and domestic cargo unloading. The expected methanol imports in October remain sufficient, and port inventories may still rise. [3] - Last week, the olefin industry's operating rate was basically stable and remained at a high level. There are no planned adjustments in the short - term, and the operating rate is expected to remain high. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2340 yuan/ton in the short term. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2268 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 20 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6 yuan/ton. [3] - The position volume of the main methanol contract is 1059019 lots, a decrease of 12237 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 138689 lots. [3] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 14092, a decrease of 810. [3] 3.2现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2025 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.5 yuan/ton. [3] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 230 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton. [3] - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 261 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 325 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [3] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 270 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 64 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.42 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.42 US dollars/million British thermal units. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 99.7 tons (weekly), a decrease of 8.35 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 49.44 tons (weekly), an increase of 3.17 tons. [3] - The import profit of methanol is - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 142.69 tons, a decrease of 33.29 tons. [3] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 359900 tons (weekly), an increase of 20500 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 87.42%, a decrease of 2.17%. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 40.88% (weekly), an increase of 6.77%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.92% (weekly), an increase of 0.94%. [3] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 72.52% (weekly), a decrease of 10.44%; the operating rate of MTBE is 63.12% (weekly), a decrease of 1%. [3] - The operating rate of olefins is 92.39% (weekly), a decrease of 0.8%; the on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1021 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 17.84% (daily), a decrease of 0.3%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.3% (daily), a decrease of 0.05%. [3] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 19.82% (daily), an increase of 1.1%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.82% (daily), an increase of 1.1%. [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of October 15, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.99 tons, an increase of 2.05 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 6.04%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 22.89 tons, an increase of 11.37 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 98.64%. [3] - As of October 15, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 149.14 tons, a decrease of 5.18 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 8.35 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 3.17 tons. [3] - As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 94.21%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01%. [3]

姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 21 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空因素交织，焦煤区间震荡 核心观点 焦炭：10 月 21 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1672 元/吨，日内录得 2.73%的 跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 3.88 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 1327 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1520 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1480 元/吨，周 环比上涨 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 21 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 供需格局偏弱，钢矿低位震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价低位震荡，录得 0.36%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 螺纹供应虽维持低位，但需求表现同样偏弱，基本面并无实质性改善， 库存压力未退，钢价继续承压，相对利好则是成本支撑，预计钢价延续 震荡寻底态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.31%日跌幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，高库存、高产量局面下热卷供应压力偏大，而需求韧性趋弱，基本 面表现不佳，相对利好则是成本支撑，弱现实与成本支撑博弈下热卷价 格延续弱势寻底态势，关注需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.13%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶 段，铁矿石需求走弱，而供应维持高位，基本面有所转弱，高估值矿价 继续承压走弱，但因刚需尚处高位，下行存有阻力，短期走势将延续震 荡回落态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z001168 ...

王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 21 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：过剩延续 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 2. 韩国：与美国关税谈判取得"实质性进展"。韩国最高政策负责人表示，韩国在与美国的关税谈判中， 许多问题上达成了广泛共识。双方在 3500 亿美元投资基金的结构上仍存在分歧，该基金是美国对韩国商品 关税上限为 15% 的协议的核心内容。（华尔街见闻） 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | 20910 | O | 25 | 200 | 330 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | | 20920 | ー | ー | ー | l | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | 2767 | -14 | 10 | 153 | 172 | | 沪铝主力合约 ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/10/20 | 项目类别 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1216.00 | +37.00↑ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1710.00 | +34.00↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 851140.00 | +19777.00↑ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 48801.00 | -331.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -84892.00 | -6718.00↓ 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -4146.00 | +38.00↑ | | | JM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 71.50 | -11.00↓ J5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 148.00 | 0.00 | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: "Caida Futures | Weekly Report on Rebar and Iron Ore" [1] - Report Date: October 20, 2025 [2] - Report Core Theme: "Supply - demand margin gradually weakens, and rebar and iron ore continue the adjustment trend" [3] Group 2: Rebar Analysis Futures - This week, the rebar 01 contract maintained an adjustment trend driven by the increase in short - position main force. As of Friday, it closed at 3037 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan from last week, with a weekly decline of 2.13% [5] Spot - This week, the prices of mainstream rebar regions were generally lowered, and the overall trading volume slightly weakened. As of Friday, the national average rebar quotation was lowered by 48 yuan to 3215 yuan/ton, with different price drops in various regions [5] Fundamental Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 84.27%, unchanged from last week and up 2.59% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, down 0.22% from last week and up 2.34% year - on - year. The average operating rate of 90 electric furnace steel mills was 68.85%, up 1.79% from last week and down 0.73% year - on - year; the average electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53.2%, up 2.13% from last week and up 1.32% year - on - year. The weekly rebar output decreased by 2.24 tons to 201.16 tons, still at a low level compared with the same period [5] Short - flow steel mills - Currently, the estimated cost of electric furnaces in East China is 3213 yuan, down 22 yuan from last week. The rebar electric furnace profit is a loss of 323 yuan, and the loss margin has widened by 38 yuan compared with last week. The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of electric furnaces in the country continued to rise this week, with some steel mills having electric furnace overhauls and some resuming production [5] Long - flow steel mills - Currently, the estimated cost of crude steel in East China is 2900 yuan, down 23 yuan from last week. The rebar blast furnace profit is a loss of 10 yuan, down 37 yuan from last week. This week, the domestic blast furnace capacity utilization rate continued to slightly decrease, and the long - flow steel mill profit continued to slightly shrink [8] Demand - This week, the building materials trading volume continued to slightly decrease, while the apparent consumption of rebar began to slightly increase. The 5 - day average trading volume of building materials decreased by 0.79 tons to 9.70 tons, and the apparent consumption of rebar increased by 73.74 tons to 219.75 tons. In absolute terms, the apparent consumption of rebar remained at a low level compared with the same period [8] Inventory - This week, the inventories of five major steel products and rebar began to slightly reduce. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory decreased by 18.59 tons to 641.05 tons, still at a low level compared with the same period. Among them, the social rebar inventory decreased by 10.89 tons to 456.41 tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 7.7 tons to 184.64 tons [8] Basis - As of Friday, the lowest warehouse receipt quotation for rebar in Tianjin was 3170 yuan/ton, with a premium of 133 yuan over the rebar 01 contract, a contraction of 14 yuan compared with last week. Currently, the rebar basis is above the average, and it is expected that the rebar basis will continue to contract in the future [8] Comprehensive Judgment - Affected by steel mill overhauls, the short - term rebar output decreased slightly; the rebar inventory began to slightly decline, and the apparent consumption of rebar slowly increased, but the speculative demand was still weak. Attention should be paid to whether there are signs of marginal weakening in delivery warehouse receipts and foreign capital positions, and whether the trade - war tariff increases continue to escalate, which may put pressure on the market [8] Group 3: Iron Ore Analysis Futures - This week, the iron ore 01 contract maintained an adjustment trend driven by the increase in short - position main force. As of Friday, it closed at 771.0 yuan/ton, down 24.0 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decline of 3.02% [8] Spot - This week, the prices of mainstream imported ore varieties were generally slightly lowered, and the prices of domestic iron concentrates began to stabilize and decline, with the overall trading volume improving. As of Friday, the prices of various iron ore varieties at different ports decreased to varying degrees [8] Fundamental Supply - As of the 13th, the total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2731.0 tons, a decrease of 94.9 tons compared with last week. The shipment volume from Australia was 1916.3 tons, a decrease of 63.6 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1584.5 tons, a decrease of 76.7 tons. The shipment volume from Brazil was 814.7 tons, a decrease of 31.3 tons. In absolute terms, the current shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore remained at a medium - high level compared with the same period. The total arrival volume at 45 ports was 3045.8 tons, an increase of 437.1 tons compared with last week; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1423.5 tons, a decrease of 28.1 tons [10] Demand - Currently, the daily average ore removal volume at 45 ports is 315.72 tons, a decrease of 11.28 tons compared with last week. In absolute terms, it remained at a medium - high level compared with the same period; the weekly average trading volume of iron ore port spot was 115.4 tons, an increase of 45.8 tons compared with last week, and it has recovered to the average level of the same period. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.59 tons compared with last week and an increase of 6.59 tons compared with last year. In absolute terms, it has recovered to a medium - high level compared with the same period; the daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills was 297.35 tons, a decrease of 0.96 tons compared with last week, and in absolute terms, it remained at a medium - high level compared with the same period [10] Inventory - As of the 17th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports continued to slightly increase, currently at 14278.27 tons, an increase of 253.77 tons compared with last week. In absolute terms, it remained at a medium - high level compared with the same period; the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8982.73 tons, a decrease of 63.47 tons compared with last week, and in absolute terms, it remained at a relatively low level compared with the same period [10] Basis - As of Friday, the Newman powder at Rizhao Port was the optimal delivery product at 821 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 yuan over the iron ore 01 contract, an expansion of 15 yuan compared with last week. Currently, the iron ore basis is above the average level. Based on seasonal trends and the basis regression cycle, it is expected that the space for the iron ore basis to continue to expand is limited, and the probability of contraction is relatively high [10] Comprehensive Judgment - In the short term, the shipment volume of imported ore continued to slightly decline, and it is expected that the arrival volume will slightly increase next week, and the port inventory still faces certain pressure. On the demand side, the short - term daily average hot - metal output continued to decline, and the steel mill's daily consumption slightly decreased. In the short term, steel mills continue to adopt a digestion strategy, and the marginal weakening of iron ore supply - demand puts pressure on the market [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [1][4][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean futures market showed an upward trend, while the spot market had a complex situation. With new grain harvest and ample supply, there is a risk of price decline. Some traders are increasing their purchases of Northeast soybeans. The peanut futures market is in a weak and volatile state, and the short - term supply - demand situation remains weak due to concerns about market impact from the concentrated listing of wheat - stubble peanuts and weak demand support [1][2][3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Directory Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the bean - one 2511 contract yesterday was 4018.00 yuan/ton, a change of +19.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.48%. Spot: The edible bean spot basis was A11 + 22, a change of - 19 from the previous day, a decrease of 32.14% [1] - Market Information: Northeast new - season soybeans are mostly harvested, with over 90% of the remaining grain. High - protein soybeans are in high demand and have firm prices, while low - protein soybeans are weak. Low - protein common soybeans are priced at 1.75 - 1.8 yuan/jin, 39% protein at 1.9 yuan/jin, and over 40% protein at 1.95 - 2 yuan/jin. In some regions of Heilongjiang, the prices of specific types of soybeans remained stable compared to the previous day. In Anhui, new - bean trading is light due to high moisture from rainfall, and some traders are buying Northeast soybeans. In Shandong, new - bean quality varies, and some local traders are increasing purchases of soybeans from other regions [2][3] Strategy - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [1] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2511 contract yesterday was 7966.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 96.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 1.19%. Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8350.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.12%. The spot basis was PK11 + 234.00, a change of +96.00 from the previous day, an increase of +69.57% [4] - Market Information: The average price of general - quality peanuts in the national market is 4.18 yuan/jin, remaining stable. Different regions have different price ranges. Oil mills' contract purchase prices for general - quality and oil - grade peanuts are within certain ranges, and some oil mills have a good arrival volume. The peanut futures market is weakly volatile. Concerns about the concentrated listing of wheat - stubble peanuts and weak demand from most large oil mills have led to a weak short - term supply - demand situation [4][5] Strategy - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [4][6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The continuous futures of corn on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rebounded for three consecutive days after hitting the lowest point of the year on Tuesday, with the forward contracts leading the rise. The rebound was driven by an oversold rebound and capital flight. The reason for the capital flight was the increase in spot purchase entities. By the close on the 16th, all contracts except the 11th had risen in October. The 1 - 5 spread widened to 99 yuan/ton, indicating a market expectation of tight supply in the corn market next year, while the near - term contracts were still under pressure from the new grain listing [2]. - In late October, the listing volume of new - season corn will continue to increase. Although the expectation has improved, the current fundamental pressure still suppresses the spot price. About 30% of the new - season corn is yet to be harvested. It is too early to judge that the corn price has bottomed out, and the end of October or early November is an important time point [2]. - On Thursday, CBOT corn futures rose for the third consecutive day, reaching a one - and - a - half - week high, as reports indicated that the corn yield per unit in some parts of the US Midwest was lower than expected, and rainfall forecasts might delay field operations [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price - **Spot Prices**: In the corn market, the price at Jinzhou Port was 2140 yuan with a daily increase of 10 yuan, at Shekou Port was 2310 yuan with no change, and in Harbin was 2000 yuan with no change. In the corn starch market, the price in Shandong was 2730 yuan with a daily decrease of 10 yuan, in Jilin was 2550 yuan with no change, and in Heilongjiang was 2460 yuan with no change. The Jinzhou Port main - contract basis was 29 yuan with no change, and the Shandong main - contract basis was 354 yuan with a daily increase of 15 yuan [4]. - **Futures Prices**: For corn futures on October 16, compared with October 15, the 11 - contract price rose from 2101 to 2111 yuan (0.48% increase), the 01 - contract rose from 2127 to 2136 yuan (0.42% increase), the 03 - contract rose from 2157 to 2166 yuan (0.42% increase), the 05 - contract rose from 2218 to 2235 yuan (0.77% increase), the 07 - contract rose from 2232 to 2247 yuan (0.67% increase), and the 09 - contract remained unchanged at 2262 yuan. For corn starch futures, the 11 - contract price decreased from 2401 to 2376 yuan (-1.04% decrease), the 01 - contract decreased from 2418 to 2417 yuan (-0.04% decrease), the 03 - contract rose from 2435 to 2437 yuan (0.08% increase), the 05 - contract rose from 2529 to 2541 yuan (0.47% increase), the 07 - contract rose from 2539 to 2552 yuan (0.51% increase), and the 09 - contract rose from 2571 to 2594 yuan (0.89% increase). The average wheat price rose from 2464 to 2465 yuan (0.04% increase) [6]. - **US Market**: The CBOT corn main - contract price was 422 with a daily increase of 4.75 (1.14% increase), the COBT soybean main - contract price was 1011.75 with a daily increase of 4.75 (0.47% increase), the CBOT wheat main - contract price was 502.5 with a daily increase of 3.75 (0.75% increase). The US Gulf完税 price was 2098.49 with a daily increase of 8.18 (0.39% increase) and an import profit of 211.51, and the US West完税 price was 1950.42 with a daily increase of 8.44 (0.43% increase) and an import profit of 359.58 [27]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Likely Positive Factors**: The number of spot purchase entities continued to increase, making it more difficult to purchase at low prices. The pressure of domestic corn production increase was limited, imports remained low, and the futures forward contracts were expected to show resilience after the seasonal pressure [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The pig industry was in the process of capacity regulation, which might affect the long - term feed demand for corn. The release of new - season supply pressure still needed time, and the spot price continued to be under pressure. The number of incoming vehicles in Shandong remained high but was gradually decreasing, and the purchase price stopped falling. Rainfall in North China continued to affect the spot harvest [5]. Other Information - The registered corn warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 36709 lots on the previous day [2].