2026.02. 04 本文字数：3072，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 缪琦 在今年的上海两会上，上海市市长龚正作政府工作报告时表示，2025年，上海市生产总值达到5.67万亿元、增长5.4%，好于预期。综合各方面因素，建 议2026年全市生产总值预期目标增长5%左右。 对于成绩单和目标，上海市人大代表们怎么看？又有何建议？ 不确定性与技术变革下，机遇与挑战并存 "上海过去一年的增长，离不开抓早、抓稳、抓实的谋划和部署。" 上海市人大代表、上海段和段律师事务所党支部书记吴坚对第一财经表示，首先，新 质生产力成为核心引擎，集成电路、生物医药、人工智能三大产业规模历史性突破2万亿元，成为经济增长的"压舱石"；其次，科技赋能显示了强大成 效，受益于人工智能和算力需求爆发，信息服务业增加值增长15.3%，软件和信息技术服务业营收大幅增长，成为服务业增长的最大亮点 ；第三，上海 经济的韧性更强了，在外向型经济面临国际经贸秩序不稳定的情况下，上海通过产业升级和内需挖潜，展现出经济韧性。 上海市人大代表、上海艾能电力工程有限公司副董事长朱柯丁告诉第一财经，今年的政府工作报告基调务实、判断理性，并抓住了关键变量。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [3][6]. Core Views - The company, a leader in optical modules, is expected to achieve significant revenue growth driven by strong demand for computing infrastructure and an increasing proportion of high-speed optical modules in its product mix [6][7]. - The company's net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 98.0 to 118.0 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 89.50% to 128.17% [1]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on new optical solutions, including OCS, CPO, and 3.2T optical modules, to capture market opportunities in integrated optics [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 109.62 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 111.97% compared to the previous year [7]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 386.57 billion yuan, 687.61 billion yuan, and 925.25 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 62.00% and 77.88% [6][7]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a global leader in optical modules, benefiting from robust demand from end customers for computing infrastructure [6]. - The report notes that the company's product shipments are growing rapidly, with high-speed optical modules becoming a larger share of total sales [6]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the 1.6T optical module will see rapid growth starting in 2026, with significant orders already in place [5][6]. - The report suggests that the company's financial management capabilities will improve as it progresses with its Hong Kong listing and global business expansion, potentially mitigating short-term financial impacts [5][6].

基本面无明显利空，今日回调主因cpo引发情绪面担忧，或可重视低位布局机会。 （1）科技行业技术的进展和迭代很正常，目前光模块龙头也有CPO技术积累，有望凭借产业链卡位和 技术优势首先受益。目前国内可插拔光模块大厂已建立了良好的客户粘性，不管是对于英伟达还是下游 的云厂。除可插拔光模块具备核心份额之外，CPO方面也有深厚技术积累，后续若CPO渗透，国内大厂 也有望承接多数订单，且CPO集成度较高，渗透会带来毛利率的改善。 （2）2026年光模块供不应求几成定局，2027年预期也在不断打入。由于芯片的出货及1.6T光模块的快 速渗透，2026年光模块市场空间或成长数倍，2027年也有望保持较高增速。对光模块龙头厂商而言，当 前正是利润爆发的黄金期。后续季报、GTC大会等催化良多，基本面十分强硬。 CPO的落地和渗透是一个漫长的过程，且国内大厂也具备相关技术能力，CPO影响有限。此外， 2026~2027年内1.6T光模块的景气度十分高企，催化良多。综合而言，今日算力下跌主因情绪影响，不 仅不会改变光模块行业的高成长趋势，反而提供更舒服的布局时点，或可继续关注通信ETF （515880）、创业板人工智能ETF（15 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [2] Core Insights - The company announced a significant profit increase for 2025, with net profit expected to be between 1.43 billion to 1.51 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 331.0% to 355.9% [1] - The fourth quarter performance showed a decline due to a slowdown in orders from major clients, particularly AWS, but the company is expected to benefit from new product launches in Q2 2026 [6] - The company is focusing on high-end market expansion, particularly in AI server and switch PCB business, which is anticipated to drive substantial growth [6] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 32.73 billion in 2023 to 22.12 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 45% [10] - The net profit is expected to increase from a loss of 250 million in 2023 to 4.08 billion in 2027, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [10] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from -2881.5 in 2023 to 17.6 in 2027, reflecting improved profitability [10] Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is Guangdong Shengyi Technology Co., Ltd., holding 62.93% of the shares [2] - The company has a total market capitalization of 72 billion [2] Performance Metrics - The company reported a return on equity (ROE) of 24.4% [2] - The asset-liability ratio stands at 54.0%, indicating a moderate level of financial leverage [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant sell-off in AI software stocks in the US market, which has impacted the A-share market, particularly affecting AI-related ETFs and stocks [1] - The A-share market is experiencing increased volatility with a notable divergence among sectors, but the long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by ongoing policies for the domestic AI industry [2] - The recent sell-off in US tech stocks, especially software companies, has raised concerns about the potential threat of AI technology replacing core business functions [1] Group 2 - The AI sector is currently in a rapid development phase, with expectations for increased capital expenditure in the global computing power sector as domestic support policies continue to be implemented [2] - The Spring market rally is expected to be followed by a consolidation phase, where the focus will be on clarifying industry trends and digesting valuations [2] - The long-term outlook remains positive for sectors such as overseas computing power chains, AI applications, energy storage, robotics, and commercial aerospace [2] Group 3 - The Huaxia AI ETF (159381) tracks an index with nearly 50% weight in CPO, covering domestic software and AI application companies, and has a low fee rate of 0.20% [3] - The Huaxia Communication ETF (515050) has a scale exceeding 8 billion yuan, covering key areas such as optical modules and computing power infrastructure, with a combined weight of over 76% in CPO and CPB concept stocks [3] - The Huaxia Cloud Computing ETF (516630) focuses on domestic AI software and hardware computing power, with a combined weight of 83.7% in computer software, cloud services, and computer equipment, also featuring a low fee rate of 0.20% [3]

2、近期变化：根据我们对上游CCL持续跟踪来看，公司M4+M8核心物料拿料较25年底有较大幅度增长，1-2月 CCL+PP 【兴证电子】鹏鼎控股：淮安新竞560亩地，打开远期算力产值空间 1、公司公告新竞拍淮安37.49万平米工业用地，即560亩，未来用于PCB投资，公司近期在海外大客户进展顺利， 但是当期产能还有瓶颈，继淮安、泰国80、43亿投资规划后，继续拿地，体现了公司对中期算力PCB的信心，打 开产值空间！ 1、公司公告新竞拍淮安37.49万平米工业用地，即560亩，未来用于PCB投资，公司近期在海外大客户进展顺利， 但是当期产能还有瓶颈，继淮安、泰国80、43亿投资规划后，继续拿地，体现了公司对中期算力PCB的信心，打 开产值空间！ 2、近期变化：根据我们对上游CCL持续跟踪来看，公司M4+M8核心物料拿料较25年底有较大幅度增长，1-2月 CCL+PP金额再次上修，判断已经不再是非常早期的打样阶段，有望很快进入批量阶段，乃至较好的份额展望 （Computetray）。 【兴证电子】鹏鼎控股：淮安新竞560亩地，打开远期算力产值空间 Cowop：近期主流PCB玩家反馈，Cowop送样验证效果较好，产 ...

T/S带领空天继续炸裂，宇航员重回太空你永远可以相信 – 国金计算机&科技 核心标的更新（其实和之前差不多） T/S：奥特维、宇晶股份、拉普拉斯、双良节能、迈为股份、连城数控、蓝思科技、高测股份、捷佳伟创、信维通 信 国内：西部材料、明阳智能、飞沃科技、华曙高科、普天科技、钧达股份 算力没问题，交易平衡后继续看好，LITE会Beat（guidance更好），CPO结构不错，核心标的之前汇报过。 应用标的也和之前差不多，偏向上工业与AI各行业会加强。 T/S带领空天继续炸裂，宇航员重回太空你永远可以相信 – 国金计算机&科技 核心标的更新（其实和之前差不多） T/S：奥特维、宇晶股份、拉普拉斯、双良节能、迈为股份、连城数控、蓝思科技、高测股份、捷佳伟创、信维通 信 国内：西部材料、明阳智能、飞沃科技、华曙高科、普天科技、钧达股份 算力没问题，交易平衡后继续看好，LITE会Beat（guidance更好），CPO结构不错，核心标的之前汇报过。 ...

Group 1: GDP Targets - This year, Guangdong Province has set a range target for GDP growth for the first time in seven years, with a target of 4.5%-5.5% [3][21] - A total of 15 provinces have lowered their GDP targets by 0.5 percentage points, while 12 provinces have kept their targets stable compared to last year [15][21] - The weighted average GDP growth target for 29 provinces is estimated to be 5.0%, slightly down from 5.24% last year [3][15] Group 2: Investment Trends - Major project investment growth in six economic provinces has decreased by 0.7% this year, compared to a growth of 3% last year [5][25] - Non-economic provinces like Fujian, Shanghai, Jiangxi, and Shaanxi have seen a significant decline in major project investment growth, with a combined decrease of 8.1% this year [5][25] - Investment in real estate, particularly in urban village and old community renovations, has shown significant declines in several provinces, such as Zhejiang and Chongqing [6][30] Group 3: Funding Sources - There are two potential improvements in investment funding: increased issuance of policy financial tools and optimization of special bond usage [7][33] - Provinces like Guangdong have committed to regular issuance of policy financial tools, indicating a potential increase in central government support [7][33] - Some provinces, including Henan and Jilin, are focusing on optimizing the use of special bonds to enhance project funding [7][33] Group 4: Investment Directions - Investment focus this year is shifting towards areas such as public welfare, new infrastructure represented by computing power, and urban renewal projects [8][36] - Provinces like Guangdong and Shandong are increasing investments in public welfare projects, with Shandong aiming to maintain 80% of fiscal spending on public welfare [8][36] - New infrastructure projects related to computing power are being prioritized in several provinces, including Guangdong and Hubei [8][36] Group 5: Industry Focus - There is an increased emphasis on AI and related technologies, with at least 27 provinces making deployments in this area [9] - Other industries receiving attention include low-altitude economy, hydrogen energy, nuclear energy, and biomedicine [9] Group 6: Consumption Trends - There is a stronger focus on service consumption, particularly in cultural tourism, events, inbound tourism, and new consumption trends [10] - Provinces are emphasizing the importance of consumer spending in areas such as entertainment, AI consumption, and the metaverse [10] Group 7: Ecological Construction - The focus of ecological targets has shifted from energy consumption constraints to carbon emission restrictions [11] - Local governments are concentrating on enhancing the application of new energy in the power sector [11] Group 8: Reforms - Multiple provinces have expressed intentions to integrate into the construction of a unified national market [12][10]

Core Viewpoint - Far East Smart Energy Co., Ltd. has announced a significant increase in contract orders, focusing on the "electricity + computing power + AI" strategy, which is expected to enhance its future operational performance [1] Group 1: Contract Orders - The company received contract orders exceeding 10 million yuan, totaling 3.075 billion yuan in January 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 115.57% [1] Group 2: Product and Service Expansion - The company is actively expanding its core technology products and services, including special cables, submarine cables, robotic harnesses, high-capacity/solid-state batteries, energy storage, AI optical interconnection products, liquid cooling products, and iterative computing power chips [1] - These products have independent intellectual property rights and are being marketed both domestically and internationally [1] Group 3: Future Performance Impact - The aforementioned orders are expected to significantly boost the company's future business performance [1]

他是中国AI 1.0时代的拓荒者，在深度学习黎明前的黑夜，成为全中国第一个复现AlexNet （深度卷积神经网络模型） 、拿到AI"黄金榔头"的人。 他是 地平线创始团队成员及前智能驾驶总裁 ，却在公司2024年成功上市的高光时刻，转身闯进具身智能的无人区，去验证物理世界的Scaling Law。 他是 Vbot 维他动力 的创始人， 用60人团队 一年量产机器狗，首款 智能 四足机器人 产品发布即引爆，截止1月10日，预订订单量已经达到了6540台，并实现了 以C 端 带 动B端 的销量破局。 他是余轶南博士，Vbot 维他动力创始人兼CEO，他要打造全球领先的消费级机器人产品。 本期「善友探索流」播客，我们邀请到 Vbot 维他动力创始人兼CEO，同时也是混沌学园六期同学——余轶南博士。 在本场深度对谈中，余轶南博士贡献了极具 颠覆性的 三大商业洞见 ： 关于生存哲学 ：硬科技创业不是赌博，而是基于认知的精准判断。只有"锁死下限"，才敢去赌那个"无限的上限"。 关于公司本质： AI公司V.S.科技公司，区别不在技术，而在是否追求Scaling Law（尺度定律）带来的无限增长。 关于组织终局 ：他用了一个 ...