Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The good economic data in the United States supports the price of copper. The strong retail sales data and the decline in the number of initial jobless claims last week in the US led to the rise of the US dollar and the US stock market, with the S&P and the Nasdaq closing at new highs [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 77,850, with a daily decline of 0.15%, and the night - session closing price was 78,260, with a night - session increase of 0.53%. The price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 9,678, with an increase of 0.43% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract was 35,722, an increase of 1,534 compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 138,006, an increase of 1,690. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 11,283, a decrease of 5,365, and the open interest was 268,000, an increase of 408 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 42,139, a decrease of 8,103, and the LME copper inventory was 122,150, an increase of 1,150. The LME copper注销仓单比 was 9.17%, a decrease of 1.02% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: There were various changes in different price spreads, such as the LME copper ascension and discount, the spread between spot and futures, and the spread between different contracts [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The strong US retail sales data and the decline in the number of initial jobless claims last week led to the rise of the US dollar and the US stock market, with the S&P and the Nasdaq closing at new highs [1]. - **Industry**: China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates in June were 2.35 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 14.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products in June were 464,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 2.633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6% [1]. 3.3 Other Industry News - Azerbaijan's copper concentrate production soared nearly 12 times in the first half of this year, reaching about 1,200 tons, much higher than only more than 100 tons in the same period last year [3]. - India continued to impose counter - subsidy duties on continuously cast copper wires from four countries including Indonesia [3]. - Vedanta Resources Ltd.'s copper mine in Zambia plans to renovate its smelter to increase production [3]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant impact of the newly activated LME warehouse in Hong Kong on copper inventory data, indicating a notable change in market dynamics [1] - The article discusses the pressure on copper prices due to the U.S. imposing additional import tariffs on copper, which could affect market sentiment and pricing strategies [1] - Despite the tariff pressures, domestic demand for copper remains strong, suggesting potential resilience in copper prices moving forward [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] Group 2: Research Team - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 3: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Shanghai copper continued to trade in a narrow range, with total positions decreasing by 12,976 lots. The volatility of copper prices decreased, leading to an increase in the sentiment of capital leaving the market. After the contract rollover, the spread between contracts further narrowed, with the 08 - 09 spread narrowing to 10. The spot premium dropped 40 to 95, and the domestic futures - spot premium collapsed, increasing the expectation of inventory accumulation. The LME 0 - 3 contango narrowed to 48, and LME inventories increased by 10,525 tons, with a 5,975 - ton increase in the new Hong Kong warehouse. Both the Shanghai and London markets continued to accumulate inventories due to the impending US tariffs, and the tight spot situation continued to ease, weakening the support of the spot end for copper prices. However, the medium - term supply and demand remained strong. The US CPI showed inflation resilience, and the probability of no interest rate cut in July fluctuated little, with short - term macro - level fluctuations also decreasing. [11] - Forecast: It is expected that copper prices will operate within the previous trading range. [11] Group 4: Industry News - Mining Accident: On July 15, 2025, a fume poisoning accident occurred at the Luojiahe Copper Mine of Wulong Industrial Co., Ltd. in Yuanqu County, Yuncheng, Shanxi, resulting in 3 deaths [12]. - LME Standard Warehouse Receipts: Cathode copper of two brands, Luanshya CLM and Daye DJ - B, under the group company traded by Zhongse International Trade Co., Ltd. obtained LME registered copper standard warehouse receipts, which are the first batch of LME copper standard warehouse receipts after the establishment of the LME delivery warehouse in Hong Kong. GKEML has successfully completed the first batch of LME warehouse receipts for copper, nickel, and tin [12][13]. - Company Outlook and Production: Antofagasta, a Chilean copper mining company, is optimistic about the medium - term prospects of copper. Its revenue guidance for this year remains unchanged. In the second quarter of 2025, copper production was 160,100 tons, a 3% increase; gold production was 48,300 ounces, a 13% increase. It is expected that copper production will increase quarter - by - quarter for the rest of the year. Molybdenum production in the second quarter was 4,400 tons, a 42% increase quarter - on - quarter [12]. - Protest Suspension: Peruvian informal miners suspended their more than two - week - long protest on Tuesday. A protest leader, Luis Huaman, said they plan to suspend the protest until at least Friday while continuing to pressure the government to introduce more favorable regulations for informal mining [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation within the range of 76,500 - 78,500 yuan/ton. Supply - side factors such as smelting capacity release and inventory accumulation pressure suppress prices. The demand - side only has marginal support from power infrastructure, but its realization is lagged. Additionally, the strengthening of the US dollar and geopolitical risks on the macro - level suppress market risk appetite, resulting in insufficient upward drivers for copper prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of domestic policies and changes in overseas liquidity expectations in the future [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: On July 15, the price of the SHFE main contract slightly declined to 78,330 yuan/ton, and the LME copper price also dropped to 9,643.5 US dollars/ton. The foreign market discount significantly widened, and the liquidity of the overseas spot market was under pressure. In the domestic market, the premium copper remained at par, but the spot discounts of flat - water copper and wet - process copper widened to - 50 yuan/ton and - 115 yuan/ton respectively, with weak downstream purchasing willingness [1]. - **Positions and Transactions**: The LME copper position slightly shrank, the COMEX copper inventory increased to 236,454 short tons, and the domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,578 tons to 109,625 tons. The spot trading activity was insufficient, and the market's divergence on the long - term supply - demand expectations intensified [1]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: Domestic smelting capacity is continuously being released, and raw material supply is relatively loose. However, CSPT suspended the processing fee guidance for the third quarter, which may squeeze smelter profits and inhibit the short - term capacity release rhythm [2]. - **Demand Side**: The demand expectation of domestic power infrastructure is boosted by the UHV project plan, but short - term downstream consumption is weak. The expansion of spot discounts and fluctuations in monthly spreads indicate a low actual purchasing sentiment, especially in the construction and consumer electronics sectors where demand has not improved [2]. - **Inventory Side**: Global visible inventories are continuously accumulating. The LME inventory suddenly increased by 47% to 34,379 tons, and the SHFE inventory also increased to 147,600 tons. The inventory accumulation pressure is prominent, confirming that the current supply - demand structure is relatively loose [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring | Data Index | July 15, 2025 | July 14, 2025 | July 9, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 Copper | 78,300 | 78,600 | 78,810 | - 300 | - 0.38% | yuan/ton | | Premium Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | 165 | 0 | 0 | 165 | - | yuan/ton | | Flat - Water Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | 110 | - 50 | - 50 | 160 | 320.00% | yuan/ton | | Wet - Process Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | 15 | - 115 | - 120 | 130 | 113.04% | yuan/ton | | LME (0 - 3) | - 48 | - 62 | - 22 | 14 | 22.23% | US dollars/ton | | SHFE Price | 77,930 | 78,330 | 78,470 | - 400 | - 0.51% | yuan/ton | | LME Price | 9,658 | 9,644 | 9,663 | 14 | 0.15% | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 50,133 | 34,379 | 23,307 | 15,754 | 45.82% | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 110,475 | 109,625 | 108,725 | 850 | 0.78% | tons | | COMEX Inventory | 238,264 | 236,454 | 234,204 | 1,810 | 0.77% | short tons | [5] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On July 15: The 150,000 - ton/year anode copper transformation project of Liangshan Mining is in the pre - work stage; the 125,000 - ton/year cathode copper refining project of Liangshan Copper is accelerating, aiming to start trial production by the end of the year [6]. - On July 14: In June 2025, China imported 2.35 million physical tons of copper ore concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 1.71% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative imports of copper ore concentrates reached 14.754 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.4% [6]. - On July 14: CSPT decided not to set a reference figure for the third - quarter spot copper concentrate processing fee at the second - quarter general manager's meeting on July 11, due to the serious distortion and unsustainability of the current spot market processing fees [6]. - On July 14: From January to June, Chifeng Yuntong completed 53.19% of the annual target for electrolytic copper, 51.45% for sulfuric acid, 98.46% for gold, and 66.79% for silver. The safety and environmental protection situation remained stable, achieving the goal of "half of the time, half of the tasks" [7]. - On July 11: The monthly spread widened, and spot copper in many places was traded at a discount. According to the SHFE warehouse receipt report, the copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,578 tons on that day, with 377 tons, 400 tons, and 801 tons increases in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Jiangsu respectively [7]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, etc., with data sources from iFinD and Tonghui Futures R & D Department [8][12][13][14][16].

Group 1 - Copper prices showed a slight increase of 0.06% in the morning session, with limited downward momentum due to low inventory accumulation in non-US regions and a narrowing price gap between refined and scrap copper [1] - Positive economic data from China has somewhat boosted metal demand expectations, while the US June CPI rose by 2.7%, slightly above the expected 2.6%, indicating the impact of tariffs [1] - LME copper inventory has been gradually increasing, influenced by the potential implementation of US copper tariffs, with a notable decrease in cancellation warehouse receipts [1] Group 2 - New Lake Futures indicates that the easing of the US siphon effect has led to a significant alleviation of tightness in LME and domestic spot markets, resulting in weaker copper prices [2] - The copper price around 80,000 has notably suppressed domestic consumption, but this consumption is expected to gradually release as prices decline [2] - Overall domestic and LME inventories remain at historically low levels, suggesting limited downside for copper prices, with potential opportunities for companies to procure raw materials at lower prices [2]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts a short-term decline in copper prices due to a surge in imports before the implementation of a 50% tariff on copper in the U.S. on August 1 [1] - The bank has revised its August LME copper price forecast from $10,050 per ton to $9,550 per ton [1] - The recent tariff announcement by President Trump has led to a wave of copper imports as buyers stockpile to mitigate rising costs, temporarily easing supply shortages outside the U.S. [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs expects that once the tariffs are implemented, liquidity will significantly slow down, ending supply tightness outside the U.S. and alleviating upward pressure on LME prices [1] - The bank maintains a long-term bullish outlook, projecting a copper price of $9,700 per ton by the end of 2025, citing low inventories outside the U.S. that will take months to replenish post-tariff [1] - The bank also forecasts an average copper price of $10,000 per ton in 2026 and $10,750 per ton in 2027 [2]

Group 1 - LME copper prices experienced a slight increase due to strong industrial production data from China, offsetting the impact of rising available inventory and a stronger dollar [1] - As of July 15, LME three-month copper closed at $9,645.50 per ton, up $26.50 or 0.28%, but has declined over 2% since the beginning of the month [1][2] - The copper price has retreated from a three-month high of $10,020 per ton reached in early July [1] Group 2 - Commodity Market Analytics predicts that copper prices may fall to around $9,585 per ton in the short term [3] - Goldman Sachs has lowered its August LME copper price forecast from $10,050 per ton to $9,550 per ton, while maintaining long-term forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at $9,700, $10,000, and $10,750 per ton respectively [5] - The announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. has made exports to the U.S. less attractive for other countries, leading to a decrease in LME canceled warrants to 11% of total inventory, the lowest level in five months [4] Group 3 - Recent data from China's National Bureau of Statistics indicates that the production of primary aluminum in June 2025 was 3.81 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with a cumulative production of 22.38 million tons in the first half of the year, up 3.3% [5] - In June 2025, the production of ten non-ferrous metals in China reached 6.95 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with a cumulative production of 40.32 million tons in the first half of the year, up 2.9% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that copper prices are expected to decline slightly due to changes in inventory dynamics and tariff impacts [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - High copper prices in June were primarily driven by low inventory levels at exchanges, creating a soft squeeze in the market [1] - The implementation of the US 232 copper tariff in July has led to a decrease in inventory transportation demand, alleviating inventory pressures in non-US regions [1] Group 2: Price Forecast - CICC forecasts a slight decline in copper prices moving forward as the market adjusts to the new inventory and tariff conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance and growth potential of Jincheng Mining (金诚信), particularly in its resource development sector, which has significantly contributed to its revenue and profit growth in recent years [3][6][11]. Financial Performance - Jincheng Mining expects to achieve a net profit of 10.7 billion to 11.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 74.6% to 82.8% [6]. - The company has shown consistent growth in net profit since 2019, with a notable increase in 2023 [6][8]. - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 99.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.4% [11]. Resource Development Sector - The resource development sector has become a major growth driver, contributing over 40% of the company's gross profit [11][17]. - The production and sales of copper and phosphate rock have significantly increased, with copper production expected to reach 7.94 million tons in 2025 [22]. - The company plans to invest $750 million in the Lonshi East District mining project, with production expected to start in the fourth year after completion [25]. Market Dynamics - The global demand for copper is anticipated to remain strong due to declining average grades of copper ore and ongoing infrastructure projects in emerging markets [22][23]. - The resource development sector's gross margin is projected to be 42.3% in 2024, despite a 6 percentage point decline due to the underperformance of the Lubambe copper mine [20]. Capital Expenditure and Funding - Jincheng Mining plans to raise 2 billion yuan through convertible bonds to support its capital expenditure and expansion plans [41]. - The company has seen improvements in cash flow, allowing for a positive free cash flow situation in 2024 [34][38]. Contract and Order Growth - In 2024, the company signed new contracts worth approximately 11.5 billion yuan, which will support its mining service business [30][31]. - The company has increased its overseas revenue share to 73% in 2024, reflecting its focus on international expansion [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand. The industrial inventory, although accumulating, still operates in a low - level range, and the consumption expectation is positive. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,090 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,614.50 dollars/ton, down 4.50 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 169,930 hands, down 2,274 hands. The LME copper inventory is 109,625 tons, up 900 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 81,462 tons, down 3,127 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 77,995 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 78,185 yuan/ton, down 335 yuan. The CU main contract basis is - 95 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The imported quantity of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, unchanged. The imported quantity of unwrought copper and copper products is 464,000 tons, up 34,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,090 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,150 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 209.60 million tons, up 1.50 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 4,665.8 billion yuan, up 1,042.416 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,510 million pieces, up 275 million pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.34%, up 0.09%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.33%, unchanged. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility is 11.32%, down 0.0061%. The at - the - money option purchase - to - put ratio is 1.68, up 0.018 [2] Industry News - In the first half of the year, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the July 29 - 30 meeting. The balance of broad money (M2) at the end of June was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. In the first half of the year, the number of newly registered motor vehicles in China was 16.88 million, among which the number of newly registered new - energy vehicles was 5.622 million, a year - on - year increase of 27.86% [2]