Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in US tariff negotiations, highlighting the complexities and ongoing challenges between the US and a major trading partner, referred to as "东大" (East Big) [1] Summary by Sections Tariff Rates - The US has established "reciprocal tariff" rates ranging from 10% to 41% for various countries, with Syria facing the highest rate of 41% and Brazil and the UK the lowest at 10% [1] - Most countries, including Japan, South Korea, and the EU, have a tariff rate set at 15%, while Vietnam's rate is 20% [1] First Negotiation - The first negotiation occurred in May, prompted by a significant rise in US Treasury yields following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, which led to fears of a market crash [2][3] - The US Treasury yield for 10-year bonds surged from 3.99% to 4.6%, and 30-year yields exceeded 5%, increasing interest expenses by over $180 billion in a short period [2] Second Negotiation - The second negotiation in June focused on rare earth exports, resulting in the US pausing chip export controls to China while China relaxed restrictions on civilian rare earth exports [4] - This negotiation was crucial for the US, which relies heavily on rare earth materials from East Big [4] Ongoing Challenges - The US faces two significant vulnerabilities: the risk in the Treasury market and insufficient strategic resource reserves, particularly rare earths [5] - Both countries are reluctant to fully decouple but also unwilling to make significant concessions, leading to a prolonged negotiation process [6][7] Future Outlook - The next three months will involve both parties reassessing their negotiation strategies and preparing for potential economic impacts of a complete decoupling [7] - The US may consider interest rate cuts to alleviate Treasury market pressures, while East Big will focus on stimulating domestic demand [8] Economic Implications - The potential for US interest rate cuts could influence global asset prices, impacting non-dollar assets and safe-haven investments [8] - The article suggests that the outcome of these negotiations and economic strategies will shape the global capital market landscape in the coming months [9]

美联储威廉姆斯：将以"开放的态度"参加9月份的会议，讨论是否降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in U.S. stock markets due to unfavorable employment data and tariff policies, leading to a market capitalization loss exceeding $1 trillion [2][4]. Market Performance - On August 1, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.23%, the S&P 500 dropped by 1.60%, and the Nasdaq index decreased by 2.24%, marking the largest decline since April [2][4]. - Major technology stocks experienced substantial losses, with Amazon's stock plummeting over 8% [6]. Employment Data - The U.S. Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, falling short of expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2% [8]. - Revisions to previous months' data showed a significant downward adjustment, with May's non-farm payrolls revised from 144,000 to just 19,000, and June's from 147,000 to 14,000 [8]. Tariff Policies - The uncertainty stemming from U.S. tariff policies has heightened corporate caution, contributing to a deteriorating labor market [9]. - On July 31, President Trump signed an executive order to implement reciprocal tariffs on various countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%, effective August 1 [9]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September surged from 37.7% to 75.5% following the employment data release [3]. Commodity Market Reaction - Following the economic data release, the U.S. dollar index dropped significantly, falling from 100.23 to 98.66, a decline of 1.38% [11]. - Oil prices also saw a notable decrease, with WTI crude oil down by 2.00% and Brent crude oil down by 2.89% [13]. - In contrast, gold prices surged, surpassing $3,360 [13].

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in short-term U.S. Treasury yields, driven by weaker-than-expected employment data, has led traders to increase bets on the Federal Reserve potentially lowering interest rates as early as next month [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The 2-year Treasury yield fell by 21 basis points to 3.74%, marking the largest single-day decline since August of the previous year [1] - The probability of a rate cut in September is now estimated at 80%, indicating strong market expectations for monetary easing [1] - The decline in yields has negatively impacted both the U.S. dollar and the stock market, with the S&P 500 index dropping nearly 2% [1] Group 2: Expert Opinions - Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates trading and strategy at AmeriVet Securities, anticipates that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates in September [1] - The recent employment data contradicts previous statements from the Federal Reserve Chairman, who emphasized a strong labor market just days prior [1]

美联储博斯蒂克：目前仍预计今年将降息一次。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the upward risk to price stability has diminished, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy [1] - As economic growth slows, a gradual reduction in interest rates is deemed appropriate [1]

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI in July showed a marginal decline, significantly weaker than seasonal trends observed in previous years, with the new orders index particularly affected [1] - Manufacturing momentum is experiencing a marginal downturn, indicating overall downward pressure on the sector [1] - Despite the challenges, the political bureau meeting has set a positive policy tone for the future, suggesting a focus on stability and progress in the second half of the year [1] Group 2 - The government is expected to accelerate bond issuance as part of its policy response, particularly if data continues to show a downward trend [1] - In the overseas market, the Federal Reserve's recent meeting indicated a hawkish stance from Chairman Powell, with a focus on employment and inflation [1] - June inflation slightly exceeded expectations due to rising commodity prices, adding uncertainty to the timing of potential interest rate cuts [1]

非农数据公布后，美国总统特朗普再次批评鲍威尔，并再次呼吁降息。 ...

四个月前，重返白宫开启第二个美国总统任期的唐纳德·特朗普在白宫玫瑰园展示了一块写满全球关税税率的牌子，震惊了全世界并搅动了全球股债汇市场; 然而在周四，他公布的修订版关税在投资者群体中引发的反应则相比于4月初期"解放日"之际平静得多。 但值得注意的是，全球仍面临自20世纪30年代以来美国最高水平的关税——平均基准的税率达15%，约为一年前的足足六倍。特朗普最新一轮关税行动规定 最低税率为10%，对与美国存在贸易顺差的国家则征收15%或更高级别的关税。 到目前为止，全球经济的表现比许多经济学家在特朗普最初关税闪电战后所预期的要好得多。为了赶在更高税率生效前大规模发货，出口被提前加载并发 出，这推动了许多亚洲经济体GDP超预期增长，也在一定程度上保护了美国消费者免受关税导致的价格飙升带来的影响。 在一些经济学家看来，这种过于乐观的情况可能即将发生变化。 新的美国对等关税税率 历经数月谈判——期间特朗普在社交媒体上同时威胁美国盟友和竞争对手们，最终出台的新税率大体与4月2日"解放日"公布但因股市暴跌和债券收益率飙升 而暂缓实施的对等关税水平相当或略低。不过，仍有一些令人震惊的举措，例如对瑞士进口商品意外征收惩罚性3 ...

美联储理事鲍曼：降息将为进一步的走弱提供对冲。 ...