国泰海通主要观点如下： 水泥需求下滑幅度进入放缓区间行业盈利就有望改善需要达成合意错峰天数，实现供给侧优化的累积与 下滑的需求匹配。如需求下降较快，合意天数达成难度大，现需求弱降甚至单月正增长有助于合意天数 的达成进而对价格形成更强的支撑。 投资建议 国泰海通发布研报称，3月以来华东和华南磨机开工率保持正增长，3月初至4月10日华东、华南平均磨 机开工率分别为63%、62%，较2024年同期的55%、51%有明显提升；沿江熟料库存保持在40%以下的 低位，水泥需求正增长的确信度高。从微观角度看，卓创等数据统计的样本(多为大企业)磨机开工率表 征的需求更佳，海螺水泥（600585）一季度销量优于行业实现正增长，考虑到大企业在大型基建项目中 份额更高，微观数据亦可验证基建是需求增长的抓手。 磨机开工率、库存印证数据可靠性高，3月水泥需求正增长 从卓创磨机开工率、库存可验证需求数据的可靠性：3月以来华东和华南磨机开工率保持正增长，3月初 至4月10日华东、华南平均磨机开工率分别为63%、62%，较2024年同期的55%、51%有明显提升；沿江 熟料库存保持在40%以下的低位，水泥需求正增长的确信度高。自2021下半 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - In March, narrow infrastructure investment reached 1.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3 percentage points. Broad infrastructure investment was 2.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.0 percentage points. For the first three months, narrow infrastructure investment totaled 3.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, and broad infrastructure investment was 4.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [2][8] Summary by Sections Investment Performance - In March, narrow infrastructure investment increased, with notable growth in transportation, storage, and postal services, which accounted for 0.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. Water conservancy, environment, and public facilities management saw an investment of 1.0 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [14] Broad Infrastructure Insights - Broad infrastructure investment in March was 2.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.7%. The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector contributed 0.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.4% [14] Physical Workload Analysis - Cement production in the first three months saw a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, but March showed a recovery with a 2.3% increase. Excavator sales increased by 28.5% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in water conservancy projects [14] Debt Issuance and Future Outlook - Special bond issuance accelerated compared to the previous year, with a total of 1.0183 trillion yuan issued by April 12, 2023. The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds for infrastructure investment, which is expected to support steady growth in infrastructure investment throughout the year [14]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by Trump has exceeded expectations, reinforcing the logic of domestic demand recovery. The focus is on infrastructure and key strategic industries like coal chemical investments, which are expected to receive policy support [2][21] - The construction index rose by 0.13% this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.57 percentage points, with significant gains in small and mid-cap transformation stocks [1][31] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in local government bond issuance, indicating potential for local investment release despite external demand pressures [4][21] Summary by Sections Section 1: Tariff Impact and Domestic Demand - Trump's new tariffs, including a 10% baseline tariff and higher rates for major trade deficit countries, are expected to suppress overseas and manufacturing investments while boosting domestic demand [2][14] - The previous trade friction period saw a decline in manufacturing and infrastructure investments, with real estate becoming a key contributor to economic stability [3][21] Section 2: Market Performance - The construction index's performance this week was driven by sectors such as professional engineering and building design, with notable stock gains from companies like Shanshui Bide and Zhongyan Dadi [1][31] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on infrastructure-related stocks, particularly in high-growth regions like Tibet and Xinjiang, and sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery [21][28] - Coal chemical projects are expected to see significant investment, with recommendations for companies like Sanwei Chemical and China Chemical [28] - Companies with production layouts in North America or Mexico are likely to benefit, with recommendations including China Jushi and Puyang Refractories [28] Section 4: Fiscal Policy and Investment Opportunities - The first quarter of 2025 saw local government bond issuance reach approximately 2.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 80%, indicating a strong fiscal push for infrastructure investment [4][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural and regional characteristics in infrastructure investment, particularly in water conservancy and transportation sectors [38]

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Recommended" with a target price of 7.2 CNY [2] Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1,160.3 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 8% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.9 billion CNY, down 17% year-on-year [2][7] - The infrastructure construction revenue was 992.85 billion CNY, also down 8.71% year-on-year, accounting for approximately 85.6% of total revenue [7] - Emerging businesses, including water conservancy and clean energy, showed strong performance with new contract amounts increasing by 50% and 22.6% respectively [7] - The average financing cost decreased to 3.57%, down 0.31 percentage points year-on-year, while accounts receivable increased by 56.96% to 246.2 billion CNY [7] Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Indicators**: - Total Revenue: 1,160,311 million CNY - Year-on-Year Growth: -8.2% - Net Profit: 27,887 million CNY - Year-on-Year Growth: -16.7% - Earnings Per Share: 1.13 CNY - Price-to-Earnings Ratio: 5 [2][8] - **Future Projections**: - 2025E Revenue: 1,121,390 million CNY, with a growth rate of -3.4% - 2026E Revenue: 1,159,448 million CNY, with a growth rate of 3.4% - 2027E Revenue: 1,248,194 million CNY, with a growth rate of 7.7% [2][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the early occurrence and low intensity of the "late spring cold" phenomenon in March, which is unusual as it affected regions like Henan and Shandong [2][3][23] - The "late spring cold" typically occurs between March and May, with a significant drop in average temperatures below the seasonal norm, impacting agricultural production [2][4][10] - This year's "late spring cold" was noted for its early onset, being the earliest in nearly a decade, and lasted only three days, with temperature drops of 6-12°C, which is less severe than the historical average of around 15°C [2][11][24] Group 2 - The impact on agricultural prices is expected to be limited, as the "late spring cold" occurred before the flowering period of fruit trees, thus minimizing potential disruptions to fruit production [4][25][26] - Historical data indicates that previous "late spring cold" events during flowering periods led to significant price increases in fruits, but this year's timing suggests a lower risk of such price spikes [4][14][25] - Vegetable production is less affected by minimum temperatures and more by average temperatures; this year's average temperatures are close to seasonal norms, indicating manageable risks for vegetable supply [4][15][26] Group 3 - The construction industry experienced a noticeable decline in activity due to the cold weather, particularly in North and Central China, where temperatures fell below the suitable range for outdoor work [6][18][27] - The construction sector's slowdown may temporarily impact infrastructure investment, but a forecasted temperature rise later in March could mitigate long-term effects [6][19][27] - The cold weather also indirectly affected consumer movement and spending, but the overall risk to retail sales remains low due to the short duration of the cold spell and the relatively stable consumer activity in higher retail share regions [6][20][27]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The fiscal policy increase in 2025 is expected to support infrastructure investment growth of over 5% [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the conversion pace of physical workloads in the infrastructure industry chain and investment opportunities in high-prosperity regions, such as Sichuan Road and Bridge [1][3] - The report suggests focusing on cyclical trends in infrastructure and real estate, with particular attention to leading companies in steel structures and chemical engineering [1] Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy and Infrastructure Investment - The government work report indicates a continued implementation of proactive fiscal policies, with a fiscal deficit target of 5.66 trillion yuan for 2025, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan year-on-year [13] - The total public budget expenditure is projected to be 29.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 trillion yuan [13] - The report estimates that the increase in fiscal deficit will contribute approximately 3,000 billion yuan to infrastructure funding [20][21] Market Performance Review - The construction index rose by 0.37% during the week of March 3-7, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increasing by 0.10% [28] - Notable stock performances included Hainan Huatie (+28.4%), Zhenghe Ecology (+23.6%), and Saiwei Intelligent (+18.9%) [28] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the conversion pace of physical workloads in infrastructure, particularly in high-demand sectors such as water conservancy, railways, and aviation [33] - Recommended stocks include Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Communications Construction, and China Railway Construction, among others [33][34] - Attention should also be given to cyclical engineering sectors, particularly in steel structures and coal chemical projects [34] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in low-altitude economy, overseas expansion, and small-cap transformation themes [35]