Core Viewpoint - The A-share market demonstrated resilience amid a significant downturn in Western markets, with 3,178 stocks rising despite the overall index decline, indicating a strategic defense by major funds [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the day of the U.S. market crash, the Shanghai Composite Index only fell by 0.37%, while the ChiNext index remained stable at 2,304 points, showcasing a strong defensive posture [2][3]. - Despite the overall market showing red, sectors such as power equipment and coal stocks attracted significant capital inflows, with power equipment gaining 1.9 billion yuan and coal stocks receiving 730 million yuan in purchases [2][3]. Group 2: Strategic Fund Management - Major funds anticipated the downturn in Western markets and established a solid defense at the 3,550-point level, which is a key Fibonacci retracement point [3][14]. - The People's Bank of China signaled continued monetary easing, with liquidity reserves reaching 7.4 trillion yuan, indicating a robust support mechanism for the market [3][14]. Group 3: External Influences - The U.S. non-farm payroll data significantly underperformed, leading to a spike in gold prices and a drop in the dollar index, which triggered panic selling in global markets [1][5]. - The depreciation of the dollar positively impacted the offshore yuan, which appreciated by 400 basis points, benefiting foreign investors holding 2.1 trillion yuan in A-shares [8][12]. Group 4: Sectoral Insights - The industrial sector showed strong performance, with companies like Sany Heavy Industry reporting a 67% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue, highlighting the structural differentiation within the A-share market [5][12]. - The gold sector also saw significant gains, with London gold prices rising by 2.3% to a historical high, reflecting a dual strategy of hedging against economic downturns while betting on China's manufacturing recovery [12][14]. Group 5: Valuation Comparisons - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 is only 13.1 times, indicating that A-shares are undervalued compared to U.S. stocks, where similar growth companies have P/E ratios exceeding 30 times [14]. - The A-share market has outperformed the Dow Jones, with an 18% increase in the first seven months of the year, contrasting with the Dow's 5% rise, suggesting a decoupling from Western market trends [14].

Group 1: Real Estate Tax Revenue - In the first half of 2025, real estate tax revenue reached 261.8 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 12% [1] - The overall public budget revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1,155.66 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year [1] - The land appreciation tax decreased by 17.6% to 253.5 billion yuan, contrasting with the growth in real estate tax [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Property Market - The Hong Kong government is considering easing restrictions for mainland talents to invest in property, aiming to boost the local economy [2] - McDonald's plans to sell all its properties in Hong Kong, with an estimated market value of nearly 3 billion HKD, while restaurant operations will remain unaffected [3] Group 3: Economic Policies - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to stimulate economic growth [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 69 billion yuan in special bonds to support consumer goods replacement programs [5][6] Group 4: Global Business Landscape - The 2025 Fortune Global 500 list revealed that 130 Chinese companies had a total revenue of approximately 10.7 trillion yuan, a decline of about 3% from the previous year [9] - The average profit of Chinese companies on the list was 4.2 billion USD, significantly lower than their American counterparts [9] Group 5: AI and Employment - AI is predicted to create more millionaires in the next five years than the internet did in the past 20 years, highlighting its potential as a technological equalizer [10] - Bill Gates suggested that individuals should embrace AI tools and maintain curiosity to navigate the changing job landscape [11]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank has announced a clear intention to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of 2025, which includes the possibility of lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, signaling a supportive stance for both the market and the real economy [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The central bank's meeting emphasized the need for a loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, indicating that funding will remain abundant [1] - There is a strong likelihood of both reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions being implemented [1] Group 2: Market Support - The establishment of the Macro-Prudential and Financial Stability Committee by the central bank aims to support the stable operation of the capital market [1] - The central bank has reiterated its commitment to optimizing policies that support the capital market, which is expected to stabilize market expectations [1]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market outperformed most major markets in the first half of the year, with a significant increase in trading volume and a booming IPO market [1][2] - The average daily trading volume reached HKD 240.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 82.2%, with a peak in February at HKD 297.3 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 20%, 19%, and 18.7% respectively, outperforming most overseas markets [1] Trading Activity - The average daily trading volume of derivatives increased by 10% during the first half of the year [1] - Southbound trading accounted for 23.1% of the overall market trading volume, up from 18.3% in 2024, with a net buy of HKD 731.2 billion, equivalent to 91% of last year's total [2] - The average daily short-selling volume was HKD 37 billion, representing 15.4% of the total market volume [2] IPO Market - A total of 42 new stocks were listed in the first half of the year, raising HKD 107.1 billion, which is seven times higher than the same period last year, making Hong Kong the top global market for IPOs [2] - Four of the new listings raised over HKD 5 billion, and seven were A+H shares, collectively raising about HKD 77 billion [2] Market Stability - The nominal value of over-the-counter derivatives tracking Hong Kong stocks and indices increased from HKD 1.3 trillion to approximately HKD 1.6 trillion, while maintaining a stable ratio to the market capitalization [1] - The total short positions reached HKD 707.1 billion, an increase of HKD 259.6 billion from the end of last year, accounting for 1.73% of the market capitalization [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The Politburo meeting set a positive tone for the second half of the year, with a clear work stance and a plan to implement an active fiscal policy and a loose monetary policy, continuing to promote policy combinations such as anti - involution and consumption promotion. The Fed maintained interest rates, and Powell's hawkish stance strengthened the US dollar index, pressuring the stock and bond markets. The current market has intensified long - short competition, and the overall adjustment space of stock indices is limited. Investors can choose the right time to layout long positions [1][3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Domestic Policy**: The Politburo meeting in July judged the current economic situation more positively than the April meeting. The steady - growth policy system focuses on releasing consumption potential, standardizing market competition, optimizing industrial structure, and preventing systemic risks, and makes systematic arrangements in areas such as fiscal and monetary policies, real estate, and the capital market [1] - **Overseas Policy**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%, and Powell said it was too early to cut rates in September. The current interest rate level is appropriate considering uncertainties in tariffs and inflation [1] - **Stock Index Trends**: In the spot market, A - share indices diverged, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.17% and the ChiNext Index down 1.62%. Industry sectors showed mixed performance. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1.8 trillion yuan. Overseas, US stock indices also had mixed results, with the Dow down 0.38% and the Nasdaq up 0.15% [2] - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis of IH, IF, and IC declined, and the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [2] Strategy - Due to the Fed's interest - rate decision and the Politburo meeting's policy orientation, the market's long - short game is intensifying. The overall adjustment space of stock indices is limited, and investors can choose the right time to layout long positions [3] Macro - economic Charts - Charts show the relationships between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate, and A - share trends and styles [10][8] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On July 30, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17% to 3615.72 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.62%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.02%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.21%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.65%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.82% [13] - **Other Indicators**: Charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Position and Volume**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the trading volume of IF increased by 40,368 to 138,031, and the open interest increased by 15,183 to 274,703 [15] - **Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed different changes. For example, the current - month contract basis of IF was - 4.24, a change of - 5.02 [41] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM also had various changes. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF was - 10.60, a change of + 0.80 [48]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey has significantly lowered the benchmark interest rate by 300 basis points to 43%, exceeding market expectations, marking a return to a rate-cutting cycle after a previous tightening phase due to political and financial instability [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Central Bank of Turkey's decision to cut rates is supported by easing inflation pressures and a stabilizing exchange rate, creating favorable conditions for a loose monetary policy [1] - The bank's confidence in the ongoing decline of inflation is bolstered by the Turkish lira's stability, which provides momentum for the easing policy [2] - The inflation rate in Turkey dropped to 35% in June, down from a peak of approximately 75% in May of the previous year, indicating the initial effectiveness of prior tightening measures [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Key financial indicators such as foreign exchange reserves and stock market levels have returned to mid-March levels, reflecting a gradual recovery in market confidence [1] - Moody's upgraded Turkey's sovereign credit rating from "B1" to "Ba3," citing improved policy continuity, credibility, and alleviation of external economic imbalances as the main reasons for the upgrade [2] Group 3: Challenges and Risks - Despite the anticipated decline in inflation, it remains significantly higher than the global average, indicating ongoing economic challenges [2] - The current account deficit suggests insufficient export competitiveness, and capital inflows are vulnerable to international fluctuations, posing potential financial risks [2][3] - Political tensions continue to hinder the recovery of economic confidence, which is seen as a major obstacle to the Central Bank's monetary policy plans [2]

金十数据7月30日讯，DHF Capital的博克尔在一份报告中说，如果美联储软化语气，美国国债收益率可 能会下降。这位首席商务官表示："债券市场也可能对利率预期的任何意外或快速变化做出反应。"他表 示，市场普遍预计美联储将维持利率不变，不过有关美联储可能在9月份降息的猜测越来越多。博克尔 表示，市场也在关注美联储声明的措辞，以及美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼是否会持不同意见，他们已此前暗 示倾向于宽松的货币政策。 若美联储措辞软化 美国国债收益率或会下跌 ...

新华财经伊斯坦布尔7月29日电（记者许万虎）日前，土耳其中央银行宣布将基准利率大幅下调300个基 点至43%，超出市场预期。这是土央行今年4月因政治局势和金融市场动荡被迫加息后再次重启降息周 期。市场普遍认为，通胀压力缓解及汇率企稳为土央行继续实施宽松货币政策创造了有利条件。 土耳其财政部长穆罕默德·希姆谢克日前表示，当前关键金融指标如外汇储备和股市已恢复至3月中旬水 平，反映市场信心逐步回稳。土央行也强调对通胀持续回落趋势"信心增强"，里拉汇率稳定为宽松政策 提供动力。 数据显示，土耳其6月通胀率降至35%，较去年5月约75%的峰值显著回落，虽然仍处高位，但其持续回 落显示此前的紧缩货币政策初见成效。土央行预测，2025年末通胀率将降至24%。 多年来，土耳其一直在努力应对高通胀。2023年6月至2024年3月，土耳其央行收紧货币政策，将基准利 率从8.5%连续上调至50%。受通胀形势阶段性改善影响，土央行于去年12月开始转向宽松政策。今年3 月，土央行将基准利率下调250个基点至42.5%。4月，受国内政治局势和金融市场动荡影响，土央行将 基准利率上调350个基点至46%，结束了短暂的宽松周期。 土央行强 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic outlook for the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for policy support to achieve the annual GDP growth target of 5% after a 5.3% growth in the first half of the year [1][5]. Economic Performance - The actual GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, with Q1 at 5.4% and Q2 at 5.2%, exceeding the 5% annual target [5][7]. - The GDP deflator index in Q2 fell by 1.2%, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of negative growth, leading to a nominal GDP growth of only 3.9% [5][8]. - The growth was primarily driven by proactive policies and early consumer demand stimulation, particularly through the "trade-in" policy [7][8]. Consumer and Investment Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5% in the first half, with significant growth in categories related to the "trade-in" policy, such as home appliances and furniture [8][11]. - Fixed asset investment grew by only 2.8%, with infrastructure investment up by 4.6% and manufacturing investment by 7.5%, while real estate investment declined by 11.2% [11][19]. - Equipment investment surged by 17.3%, contributing 86% to overall investment growth [11][19]. Export Dynamics - Exports showed resilience, with a 5.9% increase in dollar terms, despite a 10.9% decline in exports to the U.S. [15][19]. - The diversification of exports helped mitigate the impact of reduced U.S. demand, with significant growth in exports to Africa, ASEAN, and the EU [15][19]. Economic Concerns - Despite positive data, there are concerns about potential weaknesses in the economy, particularly in consumer spending and manufacturing investment in the second half [19][20]. - The "trade-in" policy's impact on retail sales is expected to diminish in the latter half of the year due to lower funding and higher base effects from last year [19][20]. - Real estate sales and prices are showing signs of weakness, with new housing sales down by 3.5% and sales revenue down by 5.5% in the first half [23][24]. Policy Outlook - The article anticipates that the government will focus on targeted policies rather than large-scale stimulus, given the strong economic foundation laid in the first half [27][28]. - Potential policy directions include optimizing existing programs like the "trade-in" initiative and addressing restrictions on consumer spending [29][30]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to be a key area of focus, with ongoing projects and new financing tools being introduced to support technology and consumption [30][31]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain supportive, with potential for minor adjustments in reserve requirements and interest rates [34][35]. - The article suggests that the central bank may take a cautious approach to monetary easing, focusing on maintaining stability in the currency exchange rate [35][36]. Structural Issues - The article highlights that the main challenges facing the Chinese economy are structural rather than total output-related, emphasizing the need for a focus on domestic and international circulation [26][38].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - Last week, the gold price soared and then dropped significantly. The New York gold price fell back to $3,338 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold price dropped to 773 yuan per gram [3] 2. Interest Rate Expectations - On July 24, Trump met with Fed Chairman Powell to discuss interest rates. Powell and most Fed policymakers have been cautious about rate cuts due to concerns about the lagged impact of Trump's tariff hikes on inflation [4] - According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the market expects a 95.9% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July and a 58.4% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September. Traders expect the Fed to cut rates more aggressively next year, with a projected 76 - basis - point cut [4] 3. Tariff Situation - Trump said he would impose simple tariffs of 15% to 50% on most other countries but would be willing to abandon the tariff clause if major countries open their markets to the US. He also mentioned sending nearly 200 tariff letters and reaching tariff agreements with Japan and the EU (15% tariff on the EU) [7] - Overall, Trump's tariff war has less impact than expected, and the market has adapted. The US stock market has continued to rise, and the risk - aversion sentiment has declined [7] 4. Economic Data - As of the week ending July 19, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 4,000 to 217,000, falling for the sixth consecutive week, the longest consecutive decline since 2022. This reduces the urgency for the Fed to cut rates in the short term, causing the US dollar index to rebound and putting pressure on the gold price [7] 5. Geopolitical Situation - Sino - US relations have eased, and the impact of the global tariff war has weakened. The new conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has limited impact on the financial market due to their small economic scale and the possibility of peace talks [7] 6. Market Outlook - Risk - assets such as the stock market are favored again, and the risk - aversion sentiment has declined, putting pressure on the gold price. The gold price on the weekly chart has soared and then dropped significantly, lacking upward momentum in the short term and returning to a box - consolidation pattern [7]