美国政府停摆，这是完全没有预料到的一件事。那么什么是政府停摆？ ...

就此将可留意欧洲央行公布9月货币政策会议纪要。美联储鲍威尔在美联储理事会主办的一场社区银行 会议上做开场讲话（预先录制）。美联储理事鲍曼发表讲话。 目前预计欧洲央行将保持利率不变，而利空美元，利好金价，鲍威尔和鲍曼根据之前讲话偏向降息来 看，也预计将利好金价，故此日内操作仍以多单看涨为主。 日图；金价今日先行走低调整，跌幅达40美金，并也维持在5日均线上方，多头占据优势，根据之前每 次调整止跌的幅度来看，也是很好的再度入场机会。上方也将有望继续刷新高点。 其地缘局势因素一般都是短线和短期的主导，难以产生趋势性行情，再加上目前市场仍处于美联储降息 周期的看涨前景中，同时还受到美国政府停摆对于经济的担忧而仍在选择黄金作为避风港。 日内将无重点关注的数据及事件，由于美国政府停摆，周初请等数据仍或不公布，但对于美国政府停摆 解除后，必将影响后续数据的公布结果，大概率将显示10月就业数据大幅下降，和GDP等经济数据的减 弱，而大幅利好金价，和年内进一步的降息，故此，今年后续时间来看，任何的回撤调整，也都是多单 入场机会。 今日周四，黄金开盘走低运行，早盘一度回落达40美金，中东地缘政治局势的突然转折，哈马斯与以色 列达 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 10 月 9 日） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 策略参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 品种观点参考 备注： 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：目前市场聚焦的两大变量：一是巴西大豆出货速度将直接影响短期全球大豆供应格局；二是中 美农产品贸易磋商进展，短期内外盘豆类期价走势仍显分化，中长期来看一旦贸易关系改善，内外盘联动 性将得到修复。国庆期间，由于美国政府停摆，美农报告暂停发布，美豆期价在缺乏报告数据的指引下， 对国内市场的关联影响有所减弱。国庆假期过后，国内豆类市场或将延续节前交易逻辑，震荡格局不改。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 ...

美国联邦政府10月1日因资金用尽"停摆"。这是自2019年以来美国联邦政府首次"停摆"。 美政府"停摆"进入第二周 临时预算案再被否决 中新社华盛顿10月8日电 (记者 沙晗汀)美国联邦政府"停摆"当地时间8日进入第二周，国会参议院当天 仍未能通过临时预算案。这是参议院第六次否决该临时预算案。 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 据报道，受联邦政府"停摆"影响，约75万名联邦雇员已被迫停薪休假，多项公共服务陷入停滞，重要经 济数据暂停发布，国家公园、航空系统也受到影响。 分析人士认为，联邦政府"停摆"会给美国经济带来直接损失。据美国国会预算办公室估计，美国联邦政 府2018年年底至2019年年初为期35天的"停摆"给国内生产总值(GDP)造成约30亿美元损失。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 在当天参议院的投票中，54票赞成、45票反对，赞成票数未能达到60票，临时预算案未能获得通过。其 中，3名民主党议员加入共和党阵营投票赞成、1名共和党议员加入民主党阵营投票反对。投票结果较之 前未有 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate a consensus on the necessity of a rate cut due to weak employment data, with most officials suggesting further easing is appropriate for the remainder of the year [1][6] - There is a growing divide among Federal Reserve officials regarding the future path of interest rates, with some advocating for caution due to financial conditions not appearing particularly restrictive [1][6] - The IMF President noted that the Fed may have room for further rate cuts, balancing economic growth prospects against signs of stagnant inflation [7] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new closing highs, with the S&P 500 rising by 39.13 points (0.58%) to 6753.72 points and the Nasdaq increasing by 255.02 points (1.12%) to 23043.38 points [2] - AMD shares surged by 11.3%, reaching a market capitalization exceeding $380 billion, while Nvidia and Micron Technology also saw gains of 2.2% and 5.8%, respectively [2] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Crude oil prices increased, with light crude for November delivery rising by $0.82 to $62.55 per barrel (1.33%) and Brent crude for December delivery up by $0.80 to $66.25 per barrel (1.22%) [3] - Gold prices continued to set new records, closing at $4041.91, while palladium saw a significant increase of 10%, reaching $1476.28 per ounce, the highest since May 2023 [5] Group 4: Currency and Cryptocurrency - The US dollar index rose by 0.34% to 98.915, with fluctuations in exchange rates against the euro, pound, and yen noted [4] - Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced gains of over 1.5% and 1.7%, respectively, with Bitcoin priced at $123,332.7 and Ethereum at $4,527.14 [4]

Group 1 - The core reason for the government shutdown is the dispute over extending healthcare subsidy policies, with Democrats advocating for the extension of the Affordable Care Act's enhanced tax credits and Republicans opposing the bundling of these issues with temporary funding [1][8][41] - The market anticipates the government shutdown could last over 15 days, with a 67% probability for such a duration based on trading predictions [1][9][41] Group 2 - During the government shutdown, non-essential government activities cease, while essential services related to life, property, and national security continue to operate [2][12][42] - Federal statistical data releases may be suspended, affecting key economic indicators such as retail sales, employment rates, and CPI [2][14][42] Group 3 - Historically, the U.S. government has experienced 11 shutdowns since 1980, averaging 8.6 days in duration, with the longest being 34 days [3][16][43] - Shutdowns are typically triggered by two types of disputes: fiscal policy disagreements and political maneuvering, often involving healthcare and immigration policies [3][21][22][43] Group 4 - The impact of a government shutdown on GDP is relatively minor, with a one-month shutdown estimated to reduce GDP by only 0.02% [4][24][44] - The primary channels through which shutdowns affect the economy include federal employee income and policy uncertainty, with wage back-pay mitigating long-term impacts [4][24][44] Group 5 - Government shutdowns generally have minimal effects on non-farm employment, although they may temporarily raise the unemployment rate, which typically reverts after the government reopens [5][29][30][45] - For instance, the 2019 shutdown led to a temporary increase in the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points, which later decreased by 0.2 points upon reopening [5][30][45] Group 6 - The long-term effects of government shutdowns on major asset classes are limited, with the S&P 500 index showing an average increase of 2.91% during shutdown periods [6][35][46] - U.S. Treasury yields tend to decline during shutdowns, with the 10-year yield averaging a drop of 2.25 basis points [6][36][46] - The U.S. dollar typically weakens slightly, averaging a decline of 0.30%, while gold prices may rise modestly [6][36][46]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points reflects concerns over slowing job gains and elevated inflation, with expectations for further cuts by the end of the year [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The FOMC decided to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25% during the September meeting [2]. - Fed Governor Stephen Miran advocated for a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points [1]. - The revised Summary of Economic Projections indicates an additional 50 basis points of cuts by the end of the year, followed by 25 basis points in 2026 and 2027 [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that job gains have slowed and acknowledged meaningful downside risks to the labor market [3]. - Powell mentioned that rising goods prices due to tariffs could lead to a one-time increase in inflation [3]. - Analysts from TD Securities expect the FOMC Minutes to reveal divisions within the Committee regarding the necessity of further easing, particularly in light of tariff-driven inflation risks [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The market is currently pricing in a 25 basis point cut in the October meeting and an 80% probability of another 25 basis point cut in December [5]. - The US Dollar could weaken if the Minutes confirm a willingness for further rate reductions, but could hold steady if officials express reluctance to lower rates due to improving labor market conditions or persistent inflation [6]. - Market reactions to the FOMC Minutes may be short-lived as investors remain focused on the US government shutdown developments [6].

Core Viewpoint - The minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting are unlikely to significantly impact the US dollar, as future developments in inflation and the job market will be more decisive for the Fed's future decisions [1] Group 1 - Analyst Antje Praefcke from Deutsche Bank suggests that the upcoming minutes may highlight divisions among policymakers, but this is not a new phenomenon [1] - The current government shutdown is causing delays in the release of official data, making it meaningless to react to past statements from Fed members until new information emerges [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The price of spot gold has reached a historic high, surpassing $4000 per ounce, with a peak at $4036.98 [1] - The Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy is a significant driver behind the surge in gold prices, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut this month and another in December [1] - Traders are increasingly optimistic about gold reaching the $5000 mark, driven by expectations of continued monetary easing [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The current strategy for trading gold focuses on identifying entry points rather than predicting price peaks, maintaining a bullish outlook [3] - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3983 and $3975, while resistance is noted at $4060-4070 [3] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - U.S. crude oil prices are rebounding, supported by the American Petroleum Institute's inventory report, which showed a significant increase in crude oil stocks [4] - The report indicates a mismatch in supply and demand, with strong consumption of gasoline and distillates, providing support for oil prices [4] - The oil market is expected to remain volatile, influenced by upcoming EIA data and fluctuations in the U.S. dollar [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The medium-term trend for oil prices is downward, with current trading showing a lack of strength in bullish movements [5] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on buying on dips, with resistance levels at $63.5-64.5 and support at $61.0-60.0 [5]

Group 1: Gold Market - The spot gold price has surpassed $4000 per ounce for the first time, reaching a high of $4036.98 before trading around $4032.16 [1] - The Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy is a significant driver behind this surge, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut this month and another in December exceeding 80% [1] - Traders are now focusing on the next psychological level of $5000, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the gold market [1] Group 2: Silver Market - The current strategy for silver involves waiting for a pullback to support levels around $47 or $46.5 to initiate long positions, as the market has not yet reached these levels [3] - There is speculation on whether silver can rally and reach new highs following gold's recent performance, with support maintained around $47 [3] Group 3: Crude Oil Market - International crude oil has shown mixed performance, with a recent high of $62.2, but overall demand for a rebound is evident despite some fluctuations [4] - The strategy for crude oil remains bullish as long as prices hold above the $60 support level, with potential for further gains if prices stabilize above $62.5 [4]