本文源自：智通财经网 截至2024年12月31日止年度，集团销售至美国的收入占集团总收入约44.4%。截至本公告日期，董事会 认为，额外关税可能对集团的业务与运营造成影响，但由于目前仍在就额外关税转嫁给客户进行协商， 因此集团目前尚无法就额外关税对集团可能造成的影响作出具体评估和计算。公司将继续密切关注事态 发展，并将在适当的时候采取措施，尽力减轻额外关税对集团业务与运营的影响。 智通财经获悉，鹰普精密(01286)跌超15%，截至发稿，跌15.21%，报3.4港元，成交额1296.19万港元。 消息面上，8月15日，美国特朗普政府宣布扩大对钢铁和铝进口征收50%关税的范围。鹰普精密发布公 告，按集团最新未来12个月销售预测，约40%销往美国的产品货值按"完税后交货"条款出售给客户，即 集团负责安排运输并将货物交付至指定地点，同时完成清关并支付所有适用税费及关税，这些产品里面 有约60%产品被纳入新关税清单，需要缴交额外关税。由于该等额外关税的税率远高于集团的毛利率， 征收额外关税使得集团的供应在商业上变得不可行，甚至可构成不可抗力事件。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][6] - **Black building materials**: Rebar is for range trading; Iron ore is expected to be oscillating upwards; Coking coal and coke are to trade sideways [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper is for range trading or staying on the sidelines; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel is suggested to stay on the sidelines or sell on rallies; Tin is for range trading; Gold and silver are for range trading [1][11][17] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC is expected to oscillate; Soda ash is for shorting 09 and going long on 05 for arbitrage; Caustic soda is expected to oscillate; Styrene is expected to oscillate; Rubber is expected to oscillate; Urea is expected to trade sideways; Methanol is expected to trade sideways; Polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations [1][20][29] - **Cotton - spinning industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be oscillating upwards; Apples are expected to be oscillating upwards; Jujubes are expected to be oscillating upwards [1][34][35] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to sell on rallies; Eggs are recommended to sell on rallies; Corn is expected to have wide - range oscillations; Soybean meal is expected to have range oscillations; Oils are expected to be oscillating upwards [1][36][44] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global economic and political situation, such as the "Trump - Putin meeting", US economic data, and China's monetary policy, has an impact on the financial and commodity markets [6] - The supply and demand fundamentals, cost factors, and policy factors of various commodities determine their price trends and investment strategies [8][20][34] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Index futures**: After a short - term high, the market may oscillate and wash out positions, but the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Investors with positions can hold or lock in profits on pullbacks, while those without positions can consider buying on dips [6] - **Treasury bonds**: In the context of the continuous increase in trading volume in the equity market, there are potential risks in the bond market, such as the transfer of funds from funds and wealth management to the equity market and increased frictions in the inter - bank market. Short - term adjustments should be avoided [6] 3.2 Black building materials - **Rebar**: The price is expected to oscillate. The cost is at a neutral level, supply and demand contradictions are not prominent, and attention should be paid to inventory increases, coking coal production resumption, and indirect steel exports [8] - **Iron ore**: The supply is slightly decreasing, and demand remains strong. With the National Day parade expectation, the price is expected to be oscillating upwards [8][9] - **Coking coal and coke**: The supply and demand contradictions of coking coal are not prominent, and the price has limited downside space but may have short - term adjustments. Coke is in a tight supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to production restrictions during the parade, iron - water production trends, and raw material price fluctuations [9] 3.3 Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The macro environment is favorable, but short - term upward driving forces are insufficient. Low inventory provides support, and the price is expected to be oscillating upwards. The short - term operating range is 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to be oscillating at a high level. Although there are short - term negative factors, considering the transition from the off - season to the peak season, it is recommended to buy on dips [12] - **Nickel**: The medium - and long - term supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to hold short positions on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply gap is improving, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to have support, and range trading is recommended, with the reference range of 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton for the 09 contract [17] - **Silver and gold**: After the decline in precious metal prices due to factors such as the 7 - month PPI data in the US, there is support below. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price pullback [17][18] 3.4 Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low - profit level, supply is high, demand is weak, and exports have uncertainties. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 09 contract temporarily focusing on the 4900 - 5100 range [20][21] - **Caustic soda**: The supply is abundant, demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The price is expected to be oscillating upwards, with the 09 contract temporarily focusing on the 2500 - yuan support level [22] - **Styrene**: The cost and profit are affected by factors such as oil prices and pure - benzene production. Supply has the potential to increase, demand has risks of weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate, temporarily focusing on the 7100 - 7400 range [24] - **Rubber**: The new - rubber release is affected by rain, and there is cost support. However, the inventory - removal speed may slow down in late August. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, focusing on the 15,200 - 15,600 range [26] - **Urea**: Supply is slightly decreasing, agricultural demand is scattered, and compound - fertilizer demand is increasing. The price has support below and pressure above, and range trading is recommended [27] - **Methanol**: Supply is slightly decreasing, demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable, and traditional demand is weak. The port inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to be oscillating weakly [29] - **Polyolefins**: The cost has uncertainties, and downstream demand is in the off - season to peak - season transition. The price is expected to be oscillating weakly, with the L2509 contract focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range and the PP2509 contract focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [29][30] - **Soda ash**: The supply is expected to increase, and the industry is over - capacitated. It is recommended to hold short positions on the 09 contract [32] 3.5 Cotton - spinning industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has improved, the macro environment is favorable, and with the approaching peak season, the price is expected to be oscillating upwards [34] - **Apples**: The inventory market is stable and dull, and the early - maturing market has quality differences. Based on low inventory and growth impacts, the price is expected to be oscillating upwards [34][35] - **Jujubes**: The枣树 is in the fruit - swelling stage, and the market has certain trading volumes. The price is expected to oscillate upwards in the near term [35] 3.6 Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: The short - term supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. The price is oscillating at the bottom. The 09 contract has a long - short game, and it is recommended to wait and see. The 11 and 01 contracts have supply pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Attention should be paid to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [36][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is sufficient, which restricts price increases. It is recommended to short on rallies. If the elimination process accelerates, there are opportunities to go long on the 12 and 01 contracts. Overall, it is recommended to short the near - term and go long on the far - term contracts [39][40] - **Corn**: The short - term supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price is oscillating in the range of 2250 - 2300. Attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [40][42] - **Soybean meal**: The US soybean supply - demand situation is tightening, but the price increase is limited. The domestic supply is abundant in August and September. It is recommended to hold long positions on the M2511 and M2601 contracts and roll them, and spot enterprises should build long positions [43] - **Oils**: Although there are short - term risks of high - level corrections, the overall trend is still upward. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage of rapeseed oil [44][50]

据美国消费者新闻与商业频道日前报道，受关税影响，7月美国咖啡价格同比上涨14.5%，关税迫使美国大量咖啡店面临艰难的抉择：要么承担成本上涨的 压力，要么将其转嫁给顾客，要么在咖啡品质上做出妥协。 而与此同时，在一些美国舆论宣称"关税将扶植美国本土咖啡种植业"时，不少美国咖啡种植者对此表示反对。他们表示，美国的咖啡面临生产成本高、气候 不宜等问题，无法取代进口咖啡，关税政策并不能给他们提供实际帮助。 7月9日，美国总统特朗普发布信函称将自8月1日起对巴西产品征收50%的关税。有美国舆论称，关税有利于扶植美国本土咖啡种植业的发展。 然而不少美国的咖啡种植者则指出，即使他们大规模扩产，受自然环境与成本等因素影响，美国的咖啡也无法与巴西等国的咖啡匹敌，关税无法帮助美国本 土咖啡产业。 长期以来，美国本土咖啡豆产量仅占其消费量的1%左右，美国咖啡行业十分依赖进口咖啡豆。 有美国咖啡种植者表示，即使美国开始大量种植咖啡，最终美国的产量也远远无法满足国内需求，关税无论如何都将使美国咖啡价格飙升。 加州咖啡种植者 鲁斯基：我上次听说（加利福尼亚州）有超过4.5万英亩土地可以种咖啡，但即使所有这些土地都种了咖啡，也只会占全球咖 ...

Retail Performance - In July, U.S. retail and food service sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month, slightly below the market expectation of 0.6%[5] - The average monthly growth rate of retail sales rose from 0% in January-May to 0.7% in June-July, indicating a recovery in consumer demand[2] - Automotive sales rebounded, with a month-on-month growth rate increasing from 1.4% in June to 1.6% in July after a cumulative decline of 4.6% in the first five months of 2023[5] Industrial Output - Industrial production fell by 0.1% month-on-month in July, primarily due to declines in mining and utilities, which dropped to -0.4% and -0.2% respectively[5] - Manufacturing output remained flat at 0% month-on-month, with significant increases in medical equipment (2.6%) and semiconductors (2.9%), while apparel and automotive sectors saw declines[5] Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole is expected to defend the independence of the central bank and reduce market expectations for significant interest rate cuts[2] - With inflation expected to rebound and unemployment rates remaining low, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged in September, followed by rate cuts in October and December[2]

丰田日前发布财报说，受美国政府汽车关税政策影响，丰田本财年营业利润将减少1.4万亿日元，4 月至6月间减少4500亿日元，预计本财年公司净利润同比将大幅下降约44%至2.66万亿日元。 新华社东京8月18日电 题：美关税政策重创日本汽车产业 新华社记者刘春燕 日本近期公布一系列宏观经济和行业企业二季度数据，显示美国政府高关税政策重创日本汽车产 业，阻碍日本经济复苏。鉴于美关税对日本经济的负面影响日益凸显，日本产业乃至整体经济前景更趋 悲观。 日本财务省公布的贸易统计数据显示，4月至6月，受美国政府关税政策的影响，日本对美出口连续 3个月同比下降，且降幅呈现扩大之势。由于美国对从日本进口的汽车关税税率自4月3日起由原来的 2.5%大幅提升至27.5%，6月日本对美汽车出口额锐减，同比下降26.7%。 据《日本经济新闻》报道，6月日本对美汽车出口降幅最大的是九州地区，出口量同比减少 67.8%，出口额同比下降76.3%。报道指出，汽车产业是日本经济核心产业，辐射范围广泛，出口大降 将波及零部件相关产业，对区域经济造成打击。 此间媒体和专家评论说，汽车及汽车零部件出口约占日本对美出口总额的三分之一，美国对汽车类 产 ...

截至2024年12月31日止年度，集团销售至美国的收入占集团总收入约44.4%。截至本公告日期，董事会 认为，额外关税可能对集团的业务与运营造成影响，但由于目前仍在就额外关税转嫁给客户进行协商， 因此集团目前尚无法就额外关税对集团可能造成的影响作出具体评估和计算。公司将继续密切关注事态 发展，并将在适当的时候采取措施，尽力减轻额外关税对集团业务与运营的影响。 鹰普精密(01286)跌超15%，截至发稿，跌15.21%，报3.4港元，成交额1296.19万港元。 消息面上，8月15日，美国特朗普政府宣布扩大对钢铁和铝进口征收50%关税的范围。鹰普精密发布公 告，按集团最新未来12个月销售预测，约40%销往美国的产品货值按"完税后交货"条款出售给客户，即 集团负责安排运输并将货物交付至指定地点，同时完成清关并支付所有适用税费及关税，这些产品里面 有约60%产品被纳入新关税清单，需要缴交额外关税。由于该等额外关税的税率远高于集团的毛利率， 征收额外关税使得集团的供应在商业上变得不可行，甚至可构成不可抗力事件。 ...

截至2024年12月31日止年度，集团销售至美国的收入占集团总收入约44.4%。截至本公告日期，董事会 认为，额外关税可能对集团的业务与运营造成影响，但由于目前仍在就额外关税转嫁给客户进行协商， 因此集团目前尚无法就额外关税对集团可能造成的影响作出具体评估和计算。公司将继续密切关注事态 发展，并将在适当的时候采取措施，尽力减轻额外关税对集团业务与运营的影响。 智通财经APP获悉，鹰普精密(01286)跌超15%，截至发稿，跌15.21%，报3.4港元，成交额1296.19万港 元。 消息面上，8月15日，美国特朗普政府宣布扩大对钢铁和铝进口征收50%关税的范围。鹰普精密发布公 告，按集团最新未来12个月销售预测，约40%销往美国的产品货值按"完税后交货"条款出售给客户，即 集团负责安排运输并将货物交付至指定地点，同时完成清关并支付所有适用税费及关税，这些产品里面 有约60%产品被纳入新关税清单，需要缴交额外关税。由于该等额外关税的税率远高于集团的毛利率， 征收额外关税使得集团的供应在商业上变得不可行，甚至可构成不可抗力事件。 ...

尽管如此，鲍威尔在即将到来的杰克逊霍尔会议上，似乎并不打算轻易给出明确的政策转向信号。部分原因在于，市场对于9月降息的预期并非毫无争议。 一方面，尽管整体通胀率有所回落，但仍未稳定降至美联储设定的2%目标之下，特别是近期关税措施对进口商品价格的抬升作用，正逐步显现，为通胀前 景增添了不确定性。另一方面，经济学家们正就近期就业市场表现展开激烈辩论：就业增长放缓，究竟是反映了企业对劳动力需求的减弱，还是劳动力供应 端的限制所致？若问题根源在于后者，那么进一步降息非但不能有效提振就业，反而可能加剧通胀压力，违背美联储的双重使命——促进就业最大化与保持 价格稳定。 牛津经济研究院的副首席美国经济学家迈克尔·皮尔斯，在其最新发布的研究报告中指出："关税政策的影响正以不均衡的方式渗透至经济各个层面，预计在 未来几个月内，将继续推高通胀水平。对于政策制定者而言，从更为持久的通胀压力中剥离出由关税引起的暂时性波动，将是一项极具挑战性的任务。"基 于这一判断，皮尔斯认为，除非有确凿证据显示经济活动显著放缓，特别是8月份的就业报告出现大幅下滑，否则美联储可能会选择按兵不动，至少维持利 率不变直至12月份的会议。 杰克逊霍尔央行会 ...

Company and Industry Summary Company: Stone Technology (石头科技) Key Points Industry Overview - The company operates in the home cleaning appliance industry, focusing on robotic vacuum cleaners and floor washing machines [2][3][7]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the robotic vacuum cleaner business generated revenue of 6.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 60% [2][5]. - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 3.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 50% [2][5]. - The net profit margin for the robotic vacuum cleaner business was 17% in H1 2025 and improved to 18% in Q2 2025 [2][6]. - The floor washing machine business saw revenue of approximately 1.1 billion yuan in H1 2025, a fourfold increase year-on-year, with Q2 revenue exceeding 700 million yuan, a sevenfold increase [2][7]. Market Share and Growth - Domestic market share for robotic vacuum cleaners increased from 23% in H1 2024 to 27.2% in H1 2025, achieving the top position during the 618 shopping festival [3][4]. - In the overseas market, the company achieved a 40% market share in Germany, with Southern Europe (Italy, Spain, France) at 8.5%, 11%, and 15% respectively, and the UK market doubled to 15% [2][3][4]. Strategic Adjustments - To mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, the company began production in Vietnam in October 2024, which significantly reduced tariff costs for North American supply [4][9]. - The company plans to launch a lawn mower product by the end of 2025, leveraging its existing capabilities in robotic vacuum technology [4][16][23]. Product Development and Innovation - The company introduced the Z1 Plus and Z1 Pro washing and drying machines, along with a collaboration with Hello Kitty for a small washing machine [2][8]. - Despite technological advantages, the company faces challenges in a mature market, leading to adjustments in strategy to control costs and improve efficiency [8][14]. Challenges and Risks - The company has faced pressure on profit margins due to U.S. tariff policies, with the first quarter of 2025 seeing a significant impact from increased tariffs [6][9]. - The washing machine segment has been underperforming, with ongoing losses despite two years of investment [14]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates improvements in the washing machine segment's profitability through strategic adjustments in the second half of 2025 [13]. - The overseas expansion of the washing machine business is expected to contribute positively to profits, with successful entries into markets like South Korea, Australia, and Singapore [12][18]. Inventory and Cash Flow Management - High inventory levels are attributed to the company's own manufacturing capabilities and the need for stock in response to North American market demands [15]. - Cash flow in Q2 2025 was negatively impacted by increased procurement costs and market expansion efforts [12]. Conclusion Stone Technology has demonstrated strong growth in its robotic vacuum cleaner segment, with significant market share gains both domestically and internationally. However, challenges such as tariff impacts and underperformance in the washing machine segment necessitate strategic adjustments to maintain profitability and market position. The company's focus on innovation and overseas expansion is expected to drive future growth.

Group 1 - The Trump administration has announced an expansion of the 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, which will include hundreds of derivative products, effective August 18 [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has added 407 product codes to the tariff list due to their steel and aluminum content, with specific tariffs applicable to non-steel and aluminum components [1] - The tariffs on steel and aluminum are the highest since the 1930s, leading to increased production costs for manufacturers and potentially higher prices for consumers [2] Group 2 - U.S. Aluminum Company reported a $20 million increase in production costs in Q1 due to tariff policies, and a $115 million increase in Q2 as a result of tariffs on Canadian products [2] - Approximately 70% of aluminum produced by the U.S. Aluminum Company in Canada is sold to the U.S., where customers are now paying higher prices than in other global markets [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July rose by 0.9%, significantly higher than June's zero growth, indicating rising cost pressures for U.S. businesses [4] Group 3 - President Trump announced plans to impose semiconductor tariffs, potentially reaching up to 300%, within two weeks [3] - The PPI increase was primarily driven by the service sector, with a notable 1.1% rise in service producer prices, the largest since March 2022 [4] - Core PPI, excluding food and energy, also saw a 0.9% month-over-month increase, with a year-over-year rise of 3.7%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4]