欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 一篇文章，带你终极复盘2025文华商品指数，拆解每一波行情背后的驱动密码。 商品指数复盘 图片来源：文华财经、一德期货 ① 1月10日： 美国财政部宣布了一项针对俄罗斯能源领域的重大制裁，包括俄罗斯的两个油气公司和180多艘运输俄罗斯石油的船只，市场断供 担忧急剧升温，推动WTI上冲至80.04美元/桶的高位。 ② 1月20日： 特朗普宣布就职，一上任就开启了关税加征，先是对加拿大和墨西哥，随后是中国，接着就是全面加征，这其中最主要的针对目 标是中国，部分商品关税甚至加征至245%令人咋舌，关税政策给宏观经济蒙上了一层挥之不去的阴霾，航运相关燃料受累下跌。 文 | 一德菁英汇 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 商品市场的故事，从来没有预告片。 2025收官在即，回顾这一年，原油因地缘剧烈波动；有色金属、航运燃料遭关税重锤；"反内卷" 政策更是以燎原之势引爆局部行情...... 文华商品指数的"关键推手"究竟是谁？它们是如何书写指数轨迹的？ ③ 4月初： 美国"对等关税"政策冲击全球经济预期，能化、有色分别以原油、铜为代表集体重挫：油价出现了年度内的至暗时刻，WTI最低跌至 5 ...

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 其二，白宫停摆开始的时间在10月1日，但苗头已经在9月份出现。从结果看，持续34天的白宫停摆重创 了美国经济，尤其是四季度的经济表现。三季度虽然没有遭受直接影响，但在这一巨大利空之前，宏观 经济难有出色表现。 ▲ATFX图 经济数据方面，以非农就业人口看，7月份新增7.2万人，8月份减少2.6万人，9月份增加10.8万人。两次 增长一次减少，情况并不乐观，但也不算太糟糕。核心通胀率数据方面，7月和8月分别为3.1%，9月份 微降至3%。通胀数据基本稳定。据此判断，美国三季度的经济增速虽然可能低于前值，但预计不会跌 破3%。 ▲ATFX图 12月23日，ATFX汇评：今日21：30，美国商务部将公布有关美国三季度GDP的一系列数据，其中最受 市场关注的是三季度GDP年化季率初值，也就是环比增速数据。该项数据的前值为3.8%，市场预期值 3.3%，降幅0.5个百分点，表明市场预期偏悲观。 ▲ATFX图 历史数据看，今年二季度，美国的GDP环比增速高达3.8%，远超一季度的负0.6%，创出2023年四季度 以来的最大值。这会令市场认为特朗普的关税政策对美国宏观经济有利。实则不然，二季度是 ...

新华财经北京12月24日电（崔凯）美国商务部经济分析局（BEA）本周二发布数据显示，2025年第三季 度，美国实际国内生产总值（GDP）按年化季率初值增长4.3%，显著高于市场预期的3.3%和第二季度 的3.8%，创下自2023年以来的最快增速。 该报告原定于10月发布，因联邦政府长达43天的停摆而推迟，系对三季度GDP的首次预估，后续还将进 行两次修正。 增长主要由消费者支出、出口及政府开支共同驱动。作为占美国经济活动约70%的核心引擎，实际个人 消费支出在三季度录得3.5%的年化增幅，高于预期的2.7%和前值2.5%。出口与政府支出亦提供支撑， 私人固定投资虽仍为负，但降幅收窄。 通胀方面，美联储最关注的个人消费支出物价指数（PCE）在三季度按年率上涨2.8%，高于二季度的 2.1%；剔除食品和能源后的核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值为2.9%，符合市场预期，但较前值2.6%有 所上升，持续高于美联储2%的长期目标。 数据公布后，市场对美联储在2026年1月28日会议上降息的预期明显降温，当前押注降息的概率约为 17%。 尽管增长数据亮眼，多位经济学家指出其可持续性存疑。毕马威首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克（Di ...

Group 1: Report's Core Viewpoints - Nickel faces concerns about Indonesian policies, leading to a sentiment-driven price increase on the trading floor [4] - Stainless steel has a weak supply - demand fundamental situation, and is affected by news of Indonesian nickel mines [4] Group 2: Industry News - On September 12, the Indonesian Forestry Task Force took over over 148 hectares of PT Weda Bay Nickel's mining area due to violations, which is expected to affect nickel production by about 600 metal tons per month [2] - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [3] - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies for not providing claim and refund guarantees [3] - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued Ministerial Decree No. 17 (2025) regarding RKAB approval procedures, with the 2026 RKAB approval deadline set for November 15, 2025 [5] - Trump announced on October 10 that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1 and implement export controls on "all critical software" [5] - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain nickel - related products through the OSS platform [6] - Indonesian industrial parks are strengthening safety inspections, affecting the production of some nickel wet - process projects, with a production reduction of about 6000 nickel metal tons in December [6] - On November 21, New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [6] - On December 12, China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs decided to impose export license management on some steel products starting January 1, 2026 [6] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the government will revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula in early 2026 and start taxing cobalt as an independent commodity [6] - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [7] Group 3: Fundamental Data Tracking Futures Data - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 123,440, and the closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,905 [3] - The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 386,986, and the trading volume of the main stainless - steel contract is 263,756 [3] Industry Chain - Related Data - The price of 1 imported nickel is 122,250, the Russian nickel premium is 600, and the nickel bean premium is 2300 [3] - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 889, and the nickel plate - high - nickel iron price difference is 334 [3] - The nickel plate import profit is 572 [3] - The price of laterite nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) is 55 [3] - In the stainless - steel market, prices of different products such as 304/2B rolls and 304/No.1 rolls vary, with price changes from different time periods [3] - The price of high - carbon ferrochrome (FeCr55, Inner Mongolia) is 8100, and the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,430 [3] - The nickel sulfate premium is 535 [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is +1, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is +1 [7]

美国三季度实际GDP大幅增长4.3%，创两年内最快增速，主因家庭消费支出强劲。受政府停摆影响，数据发布流程缩减。尽管核心通胀仍处2.9%高位， 但关税政策预期松动令市场乐观，美联储明年或因经济过热而放缓降息节奏。 数据发布后，美元指数短线拉升约10点，现报97.99。美股期货短线波动不大，纳斯达克100指数期货维持约0.15%左右的跌幅。美国10年期国债收益 率短线拉升，现报4.149%。现货黄金短线走低约4美元，现报4485.51美元/盎司。 受益于强劲的消费者和企业支出以及更加平稳的贸易政策，美国经济在第三季度展现出两年来最快的扩张步伐。 23日，美国经济分析局（BEA）公布的初步数据显示： 美国三季度实际GDP年化季环比 4.3%，预期 3.3%，前值 3.8%； 美国三季度核心个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数年化季环比 2.9%，预期 2.9%，前值 2.6%。 此次数据的发布背景较为特殊。原定于10月30日公布的GDP先期预估数据因政府停摆而被取消，而此次停摆也创下了历史最长纪录。受此影响，数据 发布流程作出了调整。美国经济分析局通常会分三次发布季度增长预估，并在更多数据流入后对预测进行微调，但针对本 ...

Group 1 - The article provides an authoritative interpretation of the Central Economic Work Conference, highlighting discussions among top experts on current economic hotspots, policy directions, growth paths, and reform priorities for China's economic development from 2025 to 2026 [2][3] - Key speakers include prominent figures such as Liu Fengliang, Zou Jingxian, Wang Yiming, Mao Zhenhua, Shen Jianguang, Zhang Xiaojing, and Li Daokui, who are all influential in the field of macroeconomics [3] Group 2 - The 2026 macroeconomic outlook indicates that monetary policies in the US, Europe, and Japan will continue to move towards neutral interest rates, with geopolitical risks gradually receding, leading to lower global economic uncertainty compared to 2025 [5][6] - The discussion emphasizes that the US will focus on balancing policy, technology, and Federal Reserve actions, while Europe is expected to experience moderate recovery and Japan will face significant challenges [5][6] Group 3 - The article discusses strategies for global asset allocation in 2026, focusing on selecting high-cost performance assets across various markets, including US stocks, US bonds, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks [8] - It highlights the importance of balancing risk and return while identifying structural opportunities in sectors such as AI, new energy, and pharmaceuticals [8] Group 4 - The textile and apparel industry strategy for 2026 is outlined, focusing on global consumption trends, export recovery, and the selection of stable growth leaders amid differentiated domestic demand [11] - Key insights include understanding demand elasticity and performance recovery in the textile and apparel sector [11] Group 5 - The article presents an investment map for the pharmaceutical sector on the Beijing Stock Exchange, emphasizing the high potential of "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" companies [13] - It suggests a dual approach focusing on "innovation-led" and "steady growth" strategies, with a particular interest in innovative drugs, high-end medical devices, and robust generic drugs [13] - Notably, 42.86% of the companies in the pharmaceutical sector are classified as national-level "little giants," indicating a strong presence of specialized firms [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the U.S. GDP growth rate for the third quarter reached 4.3%, significantly exceeding the expected 3.2%, attributing this success to effective government governance and tariff policies [1] Economic Performance - Consumer spending was strong, contributing to the GDP growth [1] - Net exports saw a substantial increase, while imports and trade deficits decreased significantly [1] - There is no inflation pressure reported, indicating a stable economic environment [1] Investment Climate - Investment is reportedly reaching historical highs, driven by tax reform and tariff measures [1] - The article suggests that the current economic conditions mark the beginning of a "golden era" for the Trump economy, with further positive developments anticipated [1]

今年的圣诞消费季，正以最直观的方式，将这种分化展现在公众面前，成为美国"K型经济"的一面镜 子。 消费分化 纽约曼哈顿下城，一座教堂对面，数百人排起长队，等待领取免费的食物和生活必需品。几步之外，却 是另一番景象：在巴黎春天，人们悠然购物，600美元的黑色皮毛外套被认为"小开销"，1450美元的皮 靴甚至被视作一种"投资"，"对这些品牌来说，这个价格很正常"。 圣诞树销量一直是观察整体消费支出的一个不错指标。罗得岛州西格林尼治市"大约翰.莱登圣诞树农 场"老板蒂姆.莱登，在今年看到了消费分化的迹象：收入较高的消费者仍在自由消费。他所出售的8英 尺到10英尺，售价更高的圣诞树(100美元)，今年的销量与去年持平；但价格为75美元，尺寸在6英尺到 8英尺间，曾占销量大头的中等尺寸圣诞树，销售情况却明显转弱。此外，消费者手头宽裕时往往会顺 带购买的附加产品，如花环、松枝装饰和篮饰，今年也几乎卖不动。 美国零售联合会预测，今年美国假日消费总额有望首次突破1万亿美元大关。但支撑这一纪录的主要动 力，来自于高收入群体，因为他们依然能够在高端百货中进行大额消费。与之形成对比的是，许多低收 入美国人更加谨慎，只能选择折扣商品 ...

Group 1 - Copper prices have reached a historic high, surpassing $12,000 per ton, driven by severe mine shutdowns and trade disruptions related to President Trump's tariff agenda [1] - The price of copper has increased approximately 37% this year, with expectations for the largest annual gain since 2009 [1] - Supply disruptions from mines in the Americas, Africa, and Asia have raised warnings of a significant supply shortage, contributing to the price surge [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict that 2025 will be a year of severe supply constraints due to operational challenges at several large mines, indicating a clear state of supply shortage in the market [2] - Demand from high-growth sectors such as electric vehicles, renewable energy, and artificial intelligence is expected to surge, further supporting bullish forecasts for copper prices [2] - Citigroup suggests that under a "bull market scenario," copper prices could reach $15,000, attracting more aggressive investment [2]

Core Viewpoint - Jim Beam, a bourbon whiskey producer, announced the closure of its distillery in Kentucky for at least one year due to dual pressures from tariff policies and declining demand for aged whiskey [1][4]. Company Actions - The company will suspend bourbon whiskey production at its Clermont distillery starting in 2026 to allow for facility upgrades, while the bottling plant, storage warehouses, and visitor center will continue to operate [1][4]. - Employees from the affected distillery will be reassigned to other positions within the company, and there are currently no plans for layoffs [2][6]. Industry Context - The bourbon whiskey industry is facing challenges from tariff disputes between the U.S. and Canada, with significant impacts on exports; for instance, U.S. spirits exports fell by 9% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with exports to Canada dropping by 85% during April to June [2][7]. - The bourbon whiskey production has seen substantial growth, with the number of aging barrels in Kentucky reaching 16 million, more than triple the amount stored 15 years ago [7]. - Despite production growth, sales data indicates that American drinking levels have reached a decades-low, impacting overall demand for bourbon whiskey [3][8]. Economic Impact - The bourbon whiskey industry contributes over 23,000 jobs and generates an economic value of $2.2 billion for Kentucky [3][8].