2025.07. 24 本文字数：1386，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 当地时间7月24日，美国总统特朗普前往华盛顿的美联储总部，视察正在进行中的大楼翻修工程，同 行人员包括数位共和党议员及特朗普政府官员。 尽管特朗普此行官方"冠名"聚焦翻修工程，但被认为带有更强烈的政治意图。他不仅带队参观施工现 场，还当面对鲍威尔表达了对目前美国利率水平的不满。 特朗普强调，"现在没有必要解雇鲍威尔"，但表示将密切关注后续表现。 近20年来首次造访 特朗普此次到访是2006年以来美国总统首次现身美联储总部。彼时，美国时任总统小布什前往出席 前美联储主席伯南克的就职典礼。鉴于对美联储在货币政策独立性上的尊重，美国总统鲜少访问美联 储，以避免被外界视为干预决策。 戴着建筑安全帽的特朗普与鲍威尔并肩而站，特朗普表示，美联储的翻修成本已从 27 亿美元跃升至 31 亿美元。对此，鲍威尔表示"我不知道这件事"。 在现场与媒体简短交流时，他再次表示，"希望看到鲍威尔降息"，并称如果是私人项目，"我早就换 掉了这个超预算的项目经理"。鲍威尔对此未作正面回应，但在场期间多次面无表情，甚至在特朗普 发言时出现摇头动作。 ...

特朗普：我与鲍威尔讨论了利率问题，卓有成效，气氛并不紧张。鲍威尔与参议员斯科特的关系更加紧张。解雇鲍威尔将是一个重大举措但没必要。我心中已有接替鲍威尔的人选，可能有三人，没有对鲍威尔施加压力。 ...

美国总统特朗普：与鲍威尔讨论了利率问题，卓有成效，气氛并不紧张。 ...

智通财经7月25日电，特朗普在视察美联储期间与鲍威尔讨论了利率问题，特朗普谈与鲍威尔的对话认 为会晤良好，气氛并不紧张。 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德：目前不可能就利率提供更多指引。 ...

欧洲央行拉加德：目前无法提供更多关于利率的指引。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The housing market is lagging due to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's refusal to lower interest rates, and there is a call for the Fed to take action to reduce rates by three percentage points [1] Group 1 - The current state of the housing market is directly linked to the high interest rates set by the Federal Reserve [1] - There is a suggestion that lowering interest rates could stimulate the housing market and improve overall economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The housing market slowdown in the U.S. is attributed to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's refusal to lower interest rates [1] Group 1 - President Trump highlights that the housing market is lagging due to high interest rates [1] - The refusal to lower rates by the Federal Reserve is seen as a significant factor impacting the housing sector [1]

美国总统特朗普：鲍威尔将利率维持在过高水平。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of gold has been in a volatile pattern since May, and Trump's tariff policy is changeable. Although the impact of tariffs on the US CPI in June is not obvious, there are still significant differences among Fed officials regarding future interest rate outlooks. The market is also concerned about whether Trump will replace Fed Chairman Powell. However, according to the pricing of interest rate futures, future interest rate cuts are still a high probability event. For gold and silver, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging. There is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio, and if market risk sentiment recovers, it will be beneficial to silver. For arbitrage, short the gold-silver ratio at high levels, and put options on hold [8][9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Summary - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that if inflation data is low, interest rates should be cut. Trump has no plan to fire Powell for now, but some Republican lawmakers have provided criminal charges against Powell to the judicial department, which may be one of the reasons for the relatively strong performance of gold and silver yesterday. Bessent also said that if secondary sanctions are imposed on Russia, he will urge Europe to follow the US. Trump Media & Technology Group has purchased a total of $2 billion in Bitcoin reserves and plans to continue acquisitions. The US and Germany are close to reaching an agreement to provide air defense systems to Ukraine, involving two Patriot missile systems [1]. 3.2 Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On July 21, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 780.10 yuan/gram and closed at 781.70 yuan/gram, up 0.60% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 784.70 yuan/gram and closed at 785.76 yuan/gram, up 0.76% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,286.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,271.00 yuan/kg, down 0.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 694,363 lots, and the open interest was 467,534 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,301 yuan/kg and closed at 9,420 yuan/kg, up 1.85% from the afternoon session [2]. 3.3 US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 21, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.44%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year bonds was 3%, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. 3.4 Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 1,123 lots compared with the previous day, and short positions decreased by 181 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 290,005 lots, down 43.67% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 4,269 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,884 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 880,780 lots, down 5.68% from the previous trading day [4]. 3.5 Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF position was 947.06 tons, up 3.44 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,005.79 tons, up 347.58 tons from the previous trading day [5]. 3.6 Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On July 21, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was 2.07 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -668.05 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 84.32, down 1.06% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 87.58, down 0.67% from the previous trading day [6]. 3.7 Fundamentals - On July 21, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D market was 40,262 kg, down 23.04% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 300,788 kg, up 43.25% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 10,234 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 74,070 kg [7].