最后说说对咱们的影响。如果你是中长线投资者，这三个板块得重点关注：消费、科技和医疗。消费股最近被关税压制得厉害，但通胀放缓后，零售企 业的利润率可能修复。科技股更不用说了，只要利率不往上走，成长股的估值空间就打开了。医疗股呢，老龄化趋势摆在那儿，不管经济咋样，这都是 刚需。不过要注意，别碰那些高负债的企业，美联储维持高利率的时间可能比预期更长。 最后提醒一句，关税这把火还在烧。特朗普政府的关税政策已经影响到供应链了，制造业PMI连续三个月低于荣枯线。如果接下来关税进一步加码，通胀 可能再次抬头，到时候美联储说不定又得变脸。所以咱们得像狙击手一样，耐心等待真正的机会出现，千万别被短期波动牵着走。 先说鲍威尔这人。他最近讲话特别像打太极，一边说"通胀还没到2%，不能松劲"，一边又暗示"五月加息可能性很低"。这就好比一个老司机开车，油门 不踩死，但刹车也不松。为啥？看看最新的通胀数据就明白了——2月核心PCE降到3.1%，是两年多来最低。但3月关税政策一出来，市场开始担心通胀会 反弹。鲍威尔现在就卡在中间，既要防通胀反复，又怕加息把经济搞熄火。 再看看市场反应。昨天美债收益率坐了过山车，10年期国债收益率一度跌破4 ...

日本和美国的关税谈判，遇到了重大挫折！ 此外，日本时报报道称，美国和日本之间的第二轮关税谈判没有取得重大突破。许多内容完全没有被提及，参与者 基本上没有提及实际的交付成果。周五上午，日本首相石破茂在东京听取了会议情况介绍后告诉记者："我们还没有 达成共识。" 日本首席谈判代表赤泽亮正（Ryosei Akazawa）表示，他与美国就非关税壁垒进行了具体会谈，并着眼于扩大两国贸 易和经济安全合作。赤泽亮正表示，在与美国财政部长贝森特、贸易代表Jamieson Greer以及美国商务部长卢特尼克 会面期间，他重申了日本争取美国关税豁免的请求。 5月2日，日本多家媒体报道称，美国和日本之间的第二轮关税谈判无果而终。据报道，美国对日本提出的框架协议 以"对等关税"为中心，包括不愿降低汽车、钢铁和铝的关税。日本谈判代表坚决反对美国的提议。 值得关注的是，周五当天，美日关税谈判出现了新变数。日本财务大臣加藤胜信暗示，可能利用日本持有的巨额美 债作为谈判筹码。 据央视新闻，当地时间5月1日，美国华盛顿、纽约、洛杉矶等主要城市爆发抗议活动，抗议者对美国政府的多项政 策表达不满，要求美国政府"把资金用于就业和教育，而不是对外发动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has decided to maintain its interest rate at 0.5% for the second consecutive time, citing "extremely high uncertainty" in trade policies as a significant concern for the economic and inflation outlook [2][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decision - The BOJ's decision was made with a unanimous 9-0 vote, aligning with market expectations [2]. - The central bank has lowered its GDP and inflation forecasts, indicating a cautious outlook for the economy [4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that the impact of tariffs has made the economic and inflation outlook more challenging, with actual interest rates remaining notably low [3][10]. - The BOJ noted that while consumer spending is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend, households may adopt a more defensive attitude towards spending, potentially exerting downward pressure on the economy [4]. Group 3: Trade Policy and Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is highlighted as a critical factor, with potential implications for exports and production, which may continue to show weakness [4][5]. - The BOJ expressed concerns that global logistics disruptions or supply chain restructuring could lead to increased import prices, which might suppress domestic demand [5]. Group 4: Inflation and Price Stability - The BOJ anticipates that core inflation may reach its target in the latter half of the forecast period, despite recent increases in food prices [5][10]. - The central bank is closely monitoring the effects of foreign exchange and other market fluctuations on the Japanese economy and prices [6][11]. Group 5: Future Rate Changes - The possibility of interest rate hikes within the year has shifted from "when" to "if," depending on the outcomes of ongoing tariff negotiations [7][9]. - Ueda indicated that a successful tariff agreement could serve as a significant marker for future monetary policy decisions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan maintains interest rates while lowering economic growth forecasts due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs, but inflation is expected to remain on track to meet the 2% target, indicating that tariff risks may only delay rather than disrupt the rate hike plans [1] Economic Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs has heightened trade policy unpredictability, with expectations that trade negotiations will progress and global supply chains will not face major disruptions [2] - Japan's economy is expected to face downward pressure from tariffs through three channels: slowing global growth, damaging corporate profits, and increased uncertainty leading to delayed spending by households and businesses [2] - Despite these pressures, a gradual recovery in overseas economies is anticipated to alleviate some of the downward pressure over time [2] Inflation and Wage Growth - The Bank of Japan has revised down its growth forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026, indicating a phase of synchronized slowdown in inflation and wage growth, although labor shortages will maintain a positive wage-inflation cycle [2] - The timeline for achieving the inflation target has been pushed back, and the current environment suggests a period of inflation stagnation, making it difficult to assess the likelihood of achieving baseline scenarios [2] - The probability of achieving baseline scenarios has significantly decreased, and developments in tariff situations may alter these scenarios, directly impacting monetary policy decisions [2] Interest Rate Considerations - The timing for the next interest rate hike may not automatically align with the delayed timeline for inflation approaching 2% [3] - The Bank of Japan continues to provide monetary support, albeit with adjustments, as inflation is expected to gradually approach the target within the three-year forecast period [3] - The potential impact of U.S. tariffs on terminal rates is uncertain and may depend on changes in Japan's natural interest rate [3][4] Consumer Resilience - Rising food prices are affecting processed food sectors and suppressing some consumer spending, yet overall consumption trends remain upward [3] - The impact of wage increases on nominal income has not significantly boosted real income due to unexpected food price hikes [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that exchange rates should fluctuate based on economic fundamentals and emphasized that there is no need for hasty interest rate hikes when underlying inflation is stagnant [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's stance on exchange rates reflects a focus on economic fundamentals rather than speculative movements [1] - Ueda's comments suggest a cautious approach to monetary policy, indicating that the central bank will not rush into raising interest rates without clear signs of inflationary pressure [1] - The emphasis on stable economic conditions highlights the Bank of Japan's commitment to maintaining a balanced approach in its monetary policy [1]

日本央行行长植田和男：如果美国总统特朗普将关税降至零或维持在较低水平，则可能更快地加息。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：如果我们对下一财年晚些时候实现2%的通胀目标有足够的信心，那么加息是 有可能的。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：推迟实现通胀目标的时间不等于推迟加息。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：基础通胀增长放缓并不意味着加息将会推迟。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The timing of changes in inflation trends does not necessarily correlate with the timing of interest rate hikes [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasizes that inflation trends can shift independently from interest rate adjustments [1]