新华财经伊斯坦布尔7月25日电（记者许万虎）土耳其央行24日将主要政策利率大幅下调300个基点至 43%，超过市场预期。这是自3月以来土央行首次下调基准利率，意味着此前因金融和政治动荡而中断 的降息周期重启。 分析人士指出，在主要反对派政治人物被捕引发市场剧烈反应后，如今局势趋稳，为政策放松创造了空 间。此次降息可能表明央行政策制定者认为市场已足够稳定，可以重新推进宽松政策。 此次降息决定公布后，里拉兑美元和欧元汇率基本保持稳定。土耳其央行最新调查显示，此次降息幅度 比市场平均预期高出约50个基点。与此同时，伊斯坦布尔BIST100基准股指一度上涨1%。 虽然重启降息周期，但土央行在声明中表示："在实现价格稳定之前，紧缩的货币政策立场不变，未来 将通过抑制国内需求、推动里拉实际升值和改善通胀预期，来支持通胀回落进程。" 土央行强调，未来是否继续降息，将"以通胀前景为重点，逐次会议审慎评估"。 凯投宏观（Capital Economics）新兴市场经济学家尼古拉斯·法尔表示，尚不清楚土耳其央行为何采取如 此激进的降息行动，但从声明来看，政策制定者"对通胀压力减弱更加有信心"，也"可能受益于汇率压 力减轻带来的鼓 ...

日本东京7月核心通胀率意外放缓至2.9%，增加了日本央行下周维持宽松货币政策不变的可能性，加息议程或将继续推迟。 7月25日，日本官方数据显示，东京7月核心消费者价格指数（不含生鲜食品）同比上涨2.9%，低于6月的3.1%涨幅，符合Quick调查的经济学家一 致预期。作为全国通胀趋势的先行指标，这一数据为下周即将召开的日本央行政策会议提供了重要参考。 | 07:30 | . | 日本7月东京CPI(除生鲜食品及能源)同比 | ★★★ | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | (ii) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 07:30 ● | | 日本7月东京CPI(除生鲜食品)同比 | ★★★ | 2.9% | 3% | 3.1% | ( गा | | 07:30 ● | | 日本7月东京CPI同比 | ★★★ | 2.9% | 3% | 3.1% | (ili | 然而，尽管东京整体通胀有所放缓，但食品价格压力仍在加剧，剔除生鲜食品的食品价格涨幅从6月的7.2%扩大至7.4%。这一趋势反映出日本消 费者仍面临严峻的生活成本压力。 民间 ...

Economic Growth - Malaysia's GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year in Q2, exceeding market expectations and slightly higher than the previous quarter's 4.4% [1] - The growth was primarily driven by strong domestic consumption, with significant contributions from the services and agriculture sectors [1] Sector Performance - The services sector was the main driver of economic growth in Q2, growing by 5.3% compared to 5.0% in Q1, supported by wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and business services [1] - Agriculture showed notable improvement with a 2.0% growth in Q2, up from 0.6% in Q1, largely due to increased palm oil production [1] - The construction industry continued its strong growth, achieving an 11% increase in Q2, despite a slowdown from 14.2% in Q1, driven by non-residential and specialized construction activities [2] - Manufacturing growth slowed to 3.8% in Q2 from 4.1% in Q1, but key sectors like electrical, electronic, and food processing remained robust [2] - The mining and quarrying sector faced challenges, contracting by 7.4% in Q2, worsened from a 2.7% decline in Q1, primarily due to falling oil and gas production [2] Domestic Consumption - Strong domestic consumption was a key factor in Q2 economic growth, supported by a stable labor market and low unemployment rates, which bolstered household spending [2] - Government cash assistance programs, such as SARA and STR, provided additional support to household spending, alleviating economic pressure on families [3] Trade and Policy Challenges - Despite exceeding growth expectations, Malaysia's economy faces challenges from global trade uncertainties, with exports unexpectedly declining by 3.5% in June [3] - Potential tariffs from the U.S. on Malaysian exports, particularly a proposed 25% tariff effective August 1, could significantly impact the export market [3] - The slowdown in major export markets may also affect export demand, alongside domestic policy adjustments that could pressure economic growth [3] Future Outlook - The central bank anticipates a slowdown in economic growth in the second half of the year but expects the annual growth rate to exceed 4.5% [4] - Continued domestic demand growth and government policy support are expected to provide some buffer for the economy [4] - The central bank is closely monitoring trade and tariff developments and is likely to implement further interest rate cuts later in the year to support economic growth [4]

金十数据7月24日讯，据知情人士透露，欧洲央行内部主张再次降息的决策者正面临愈发艰难的阻力。 一些官员表示，9月维持利率不变正成为基本情景。消息人士指出，支持进一步宽松的官员需要为自己 的立场提供充足理由，而反对者则不再需要解释立场。欧洲央行周四宣布自一年多来首次暂停降息，等 待欧美贸易关系的更多明确信号。行长拉加德表示，目前通胀已回到2%目标，经济运行亦符合或略优 于预期，央行处于"观望模式"。在拉加德表态之后，市场明显下调了对9月降息的预期。当前交易员预 计9月降息概率约为25%，低于她发言前的40%。 知情人士：欧洲央行内部鸽派面临阻力 9月基本预期是继续按兵不动 ...

金十数据7月24日讯，美国银行策略师Alex Cohen表示，围绕美联储领导层前景的不确定性正在削弱美 元表现，相关疑虑"显然比其他资产更早影响到美元"，并可能是美元迟迟未能反弹的主要阻力。"即便 未来领导层更换以较常规方式进行，市场也开始预期一个更加宽松的美联储环境，"科恩指出。特朗普 持续向美联储主席鲍威尔施压，要求其降息，今日还计划到访美联储总部，进一步凸显政治干预迹象。 美银：美联储独立性存疑施压美元 市场担忧加剧宽松倾向 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Portuguese government has nominated Alvaro Santos Pereira, the chief economist of the OECD, to be the next governor of the Bank of Portugal, succeeding Carlos Costa, whose term ended on July 19 [1] Group 1: Appointment Details - Alvaro Santos Pereira will replace Carlos Costa, who was known as a "dove" representative advocating for loose monetary policy within the European Central Bank [1] - The governor of the Bank of Portugal is nominated by the cabinet for a five-year term, which can be renewed once [1] - Carlos Costa had previously expressed a willingness to continue in the role of governor [1] Group 2: Nomination Process - The new nominee must undergo questioning by a parliamentary committee, although this committee does not have the authority to veto the nomination [1] - Following the committee's questioning, the government can proceed with the official appointment of the new governor [1]

金十数据7月24日讯，土耳其央行周四宣布将基准利率下调300个基点至43%，超出市场预期。随着市场 趋于平稳、通胀持续回落，土耳其央行再次转向降息。该央行表示，未来的降息步幅将以审慎方式逐次 会议决定，并将其利率走廊的上限从49%下调至46%。土耳其央行在4月将政策利率从42.5%上调至 46%，逆转去年12月启动的降息周期，原因是3月伊斯坦布尔市长、总统政敌伊马莫卢被捕后引发的市 场波动。土耳其央行表示，6月核心通胀趋势保持平稳，预计本月受一次性因素影响，月度通胀将出 现"暂时上行"。货币政策委员会指出，最新数据显示，需求对通胀的抑制效应正在增强。 土耳其央行重启宽松周期 大幅降息300个基点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights positive developments in trade agreements between the U.S. and Japan, as well as potential agreements with the EU, which have led to a significant rise in U.S. stock markets [4][5]. Trade Agreements - The U.S. and Japan have reached a trade agreement that includes a 15% "reciprocal" tariff on goods exported to the U.S. from Japan [4][8]. - The U.S. is reportedly close to finalizing a trade agreement with the EU, which may involve a 15% tariff on European imports, preventing a potential increase to 30% [4]. - The EU is preparing a retaliatory tariff plan that could reach up to €93 billion, with a maximum rate of 30%, if an agreement is not reached by August 1 [4]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the trade agreements, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 400 points, reflecting strong market optimism [5]. - Analysts suggest that the clarity in trade policies is beneficial for market stability and could lead to continued stock market gains [9]. Federal Reserve Expectations - There is increasing speculation regarding a change in leadership at the Federal Reserve, which may lead to a more accommodative monetary policy [11][12]. - Market participants are betting on a significant interest rate cut in 2026, with expectations rising from a 25 basis point cut in April to a 76 basis point cut now [11]. - The potential for a new Fed chair who favors rate cuts is influencing investment strategies on Wall Street [12].

Core Viewpoint - Bond traders are increasing their bets that the Federal Reserve will implement more aggressive interest rate cuts in 2026, driven by speculation that a potential leadership change at the Fed will lead to a more accommodative monetary policy as desired by President Donald Trump [1] Group 1 - Traders are focusing on the yield spread between SOFR futures maturing in December 2025 and December 2026, which reflects market expectations for the Fed's rate cuts during that period [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic performance in the first half of the year, highlighting a GDP growth of 5.3% and the necessity for continued policy support to achieve the annual growth target of 5% in the second half of the year [2][4][6]. Economic Performance - The actual GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, with the first quarter at 5.4% and the second quarter at 5.2%, exceeding the annual target [4][6]. - The nominal GDP growth in the second quarter was only 3.9%, with a GDP deflator index decline of 1.2%, indicating persistent supply-demand imbalances [4][6]. Policy Drivers - Economic growth was supported by proactive policies and early implementation of consumption-boosting measures, such as the "trade-in" policy, which significantly improved retail sales in various categories [6][9]. - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5% year-on-year, with categories related to the "trade-in" policy showing substantial growth, such as home appliances and communication equipment [6][9]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by only 2.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment at 4.6% and manufacturing investment at 7.5%, while real estate investment declined by 11.2% [9]. - Investment in equipment and tools surged by 17.3%, contributing 86% to overall investment growth [9]. Export Performance - Exports showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% in dollar terms, despite a 10.9% decline in exports to the U.S. [13][20]. - Diversification of exports helped mitigate the decline in U.S. exports, with significant growth in exports to Africa, ASEAN, and the EU [13][20]. Economic Concerns - Despite positive growth indicators, there are concerns about potential weaknesses in the economy, particularly in consumer spending, manufacturing investment, and real estate [15][16]. - The "trade-in" policy's impact on consumer spending may weaken in the second half due to lower absolute funding compared to the first half and higher base effects from last year [16]. Policy Outlook - The article anticipates that the second half of the year will see targeted policies rather than large-scale stimulus, focusing on optimizing existing budget allocations and supporting key sectors [27][28]. - Consumption policies may be refined to benefit lower-income groups and address unreasonable restrictions on consumer spending [29]. Investment and Infrastructure - Infrastructure investment is expected to be a key growth driver, with ongoing projects and new policy tools aimed at supporting technology innovation and stabilizing foreign trade [31][32]. - The government is likely to focus on urban renewal and improving housing quality while avoiding excessive stimulus measures [34]. Monetary Policy - A slight reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates may occur, but significant monetary easing is not anticipated in the short term [36][37]. - The stability of the RMB against the USD is expected to be maintained, with potential slight depreciation against other currencies [36][37].