这是2024年7月29日在美国首都华盛顿拍摄的美国财政部大楼。新华社记者胡友松摄 新华财经北京5月19日电（卜晓明）30年期美国国债收益率19日盘中突破5%。美国彭博新闻社当天评论，"卖出美国"再现。 彭博社认为，国际信用评级机构穆迪下调美国主权信用评级，这一举动推升30年期美国国债收益率并拉低美国股指期货。与此同时，10年期美债收益率19日 盘中突破4.5%。 穆迪16日宣布决定将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，缘于美国政府债务和利息支付比例增加。穆迪同时将美国主权信用评级展望从"负面"调整为"稳 定"。 法国《星期日论坛报》17日援引欧洲中央银行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德的话报道，美元对欧元汇率近期下跌反映出"金融市场某些部分对美国政策抱有不确定 性并失去信心"。 英国媒体4月29日报道，英国中央银行正在评估美元近期走软可能引发的影响，暗示美元已失去避险货币地位。 围绕穆迪下调美国主权信用评级一事，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特回应："穆迪是落后指标，每个人都如此看待信用评级机构。" （文章来源：新华社） 穆迪下调美国主权信用评级后，美国在三大主要国际信用评级机构中的主权信用评级均失去了Aaa最高等级。另两 ...

你没听错，美国政府的信用评级被穆迪降级了，从最顶级的Aaa降到了Aa1。这就好比是你一直以为自己是 全班学习委员，结果突然被老师通知：对不起，你现在只是普通班干部。 而且穆迪还特意强调一句："放心，我们现在对你的评级是稳定的，意思是你虽然已经掉下去了，但短期 内还不会再掉。"听起来就像医生跟你说："你虽然胖了20斤，但短期内不会再胖了。"这能叫安慰吗？ 一听这消息，美股立马开始抖了，纳指和标普500 ETF盘后跌了0.4%。债券市场也开始跟着神经质，美国 10年期国债收益率飙到4.48%，两年期也跟着兴奋了一把——这要是债券也会说话，它肯定在喊："终于轮 到我上热搜了！" 更热闹的是，这已经不是第一次美国被降级了。前有惠誉（Fitch），再有标普（S&P），现在连**穆迪 （Moody's）**也下手了——这仨评级机构就像是三位前女友，轮番在社交平台上发文："我早就说过他不 靠谱！"结果现在，美国三大信用评分全军覆没，正式退出"三A俱乐部"。 你问为啥降级？原因其实也不复杂——**美国政府太会花钱，不会存钱。**穆迪直说了：你这十多年来债 务和利息狂飙，已经甩同龄人几条街了！就像一个朋友每年都说"我要存钱买房 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent downgrade of the United States' credit rating by Moody's, marking the first time all three major credit rating agencies have downgraded the U.S. from its previous AAA status due to rising government debt and fiscal challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, with a stable outlook, following similar actions by S&P and Fitch [1][2]. - The downgrade is primarily attributed to increasing government debt and the rising proportion of interest payments relative to revenue [2][5]. Group 2: Fiscal Deficits and Debt Levels - The U.S. fiscal deficit has approached $2 trillion annually, with total nominal debt exceeding $36 trillion, representing over 6% of GDP, which is the highest in peacetime history [2][5]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary acknowledged that the country is on an unsustainable fiscal path, with projections indicating that the federal deficit could reach nearly 9% of GDP by 2035 [5][7]. Group 3: Rising Interest Costs - High interest rates have led to increased debt servicing costs, with net interest expenditures expected to rise by approximately 130% by 2024 compared to 2019 levels [5][8]. - The average interest rate on outstanding U.S. debt is projected to be 3.324% in 2024, with total debt burden reaching 98% of GDP [5][8]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The trade war initiated by Trump has resulted in weakened economic conditions, leading to decreased consumer spending and increased corporate costs, which in turn affects government revenue and debt repayment capacity [8][11]. - The Yale Budget Lab estimates that proposed tax legislation could increase government debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, potentially reaching $5 trillion if certain temporary provisions are extended [8][12]. Group 5: Market Reactions - Following the downgrade announcement, the S&P 500 index ETF experienced a decline of over 1%, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose from 4.44% to above 4.48% [13][15]. - The article suggests that rising bond yields could lead to increased pressure on the U.S. government to address fiscal challenges, potentially impacting future economic policies [15].

Core Viewpoint - The current bull market is characterized by resilient macro data, improving earnings, and easing trade tensions, but it is considered the "least popular" rally due to the predominant buying from retail investors and corporations [1][2] Group 1: Market Conditions - Employment and consumer data are showing positive trends, with Nvidia expected to return to high growth, supported by trade agreements being reached [2] - The non-farm payroll data from May indicates that tariff impacts are unlikely to be reflected in the data, with potential upside surprises in June [2] - Retail sales data may underperform expectations but is still expected to support market growth, driven by strong consumer confidence [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Predictions - Nvidia's outlook is optimistic, with expectations for double-digit growth in earnings, supported by seasonal performance trends in June and July [3] - The S&P 500 index is projected to reach historical highs of 6144 points this quarter [1] - The rise in 10-year Treasury yields is prompting investors to shift towards high-quality stocks, particularly large tech stocks, while putting pressure on consumer staples and utilities [6] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Despite a significant market rebound, hedge funds are still net selling, and leverage remains near historical lows, indicating a cautious market sentiment [7] - There is a prevailing skepticism in the market, suggesting that if the current rebound is sustained, unexpected outcomes may arise [8] Group 4: Sector Insights - The industrial sector showed resilience during the market rebound, with cyclical stocks outperforming the broader market, indicating active buying rather than passive recovery [9] - Consumer spending data as of May 6 shows positive trends, reinforcing the optimistic outlook for the consumer sector [10] Group 5: Market Dynamics - The "Mag 7" stocks are returning to a traditional pattern where large tech stocks are favored during macroeconomic concerns [11] - There has been a reversal in the trend of capital flowing out of U.S. risk assets, with funds now returning to these assets, narrowing the gap in performance [12]

盾博发现在全球金融市场的剧烈波动中，美债收益率作为衡量经济预期与货币政策走向的关键指标，始终 是投资者关注的焦点。近日，摩根大通由 Jay Barry 牵头的策略师团队发布最新预测，大幅上调对美国 10 年期国债收益率和两年期国债收益率 2025 年年底的预期，引发市场广泛热议。其中，10 年期国债收益率 预期从先前的 4% 上调至 4.35%，两年期国债收益率预期也从 3% 提升至 3.5%。这一调整不仅体现了华尔 街大行对美国经济前景的重新评估，更折射出贸易局势缓和背景下，货币政策与市场预期之间的复杂博 弈。 经济基本面的改善直接影响了市场对美联储货币政策的预期。长期以来，市场普遍认为美联储将通过降息 来刺激经济增长，但随着美国经济因贸易局势缓和而展现出更强韧性，美联储的货币政策路径出现了明显 转变信号。此前，摩根大通的经济学家们已经将美联储降息时间的预期从 9 月份推后至 12 月份，而此次 策略师对美债收益率预期的上调，进一步印证了市场对美联储延迟降息的判断。在经济增长提速的背景 下，美联储更倾向于维持现有利率水平，以避免因过早降息引发通胀压力，这也使得债券市场收益率曲线 随之发生变化。 从债券市场的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced a decline, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.4472% and the 2-year yield falling to 3.9629%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1] Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 8.91 basis points, closing at 4.4472% after a day of continuous decline [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield fell by 8.79 basis points, ending at 3.9629%, with a notable drop starting at 14:00 [1] - The 2/10 year Treasury yield spread remained roughly stable at +48.227 basis points, with significant fluctuations following the release of PPI data [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of U.S. retail sales data at 20:30, there was a brief uptick in yields before they hit a new daily low [1] - The 10-year yield reached a daily low of 4.4374% at 01:13, reflecting ongoing market adjustments [1] - The yield spread peaked at +51.942 basis points at 20:54 after the PPI data was published, indicating increased market volatility [1]

美债收益率回到了4月美债抛售潮期间的高点。 美债收益率"高烧"不退。5月15日，美国10年期美债收益率自2月以来首次收于4.5%以上，偿债成本回到了4月美债抛售潮期间的高点，市场对美联储降息的 预期再次被削弱。 相比之下，中国债市并未受到明显影响，债市受到上周降准降息的提振，而本周各期限债券收益率相较于关税缓和之前的水平仅略有回升。 贝莱德基金首席固定收益投资官刘鑫在15日接受第一财经记者采访时表示，随着汇率掣肘消退，未来中国或仍有1次降息，带动短端利率下行10~20BP（基 点），整体资金利率的下降也有助于在债券供给放大下维护债市稳定，因而短债更受到利好，考虑到5~6 月政府债融资增加和逆周期政策落地刺激需求，预 计长债走势偏震荡。 美债收益率"高烧"不退 5月15日，美债收益率进一步上行5-7BP，10年期美债收益率自2月以来首次收于4.5%以上，30年期则逼近5%，市场对美联储降息的预期再次被削弱。期货市 场上有大型投资者买入看跌美债期权，目标收益率已高达4.8%。 美联储副主席杰斐逊隔夜表示，关税及相关不确定性今年可能减缓增长并推高通胀，但货币政策准备好适时应对。若已宣布的关税措施持续，可能会阻碍通 ...

美债收益率持续下跌，2年期收益率最新下跌6.3个基点，至3.99%。 ...

美债收益率小幅走低，市场等待数据公布 金十数据5月15日讯，在当天晚些时候公布一系列数据之前，美国国债小幅走强，各期限国债收益率下 跌1-2个基点。美国将于周四公布的数据包括PPI、零售销售、每周初请失业金人数和工业生产。 Neuberger Berman经济学家埃里克·克努岑在一份报告中表示，尽管如此，贸易冲突现在已经平静下来， 人们更多地关注经济，而不是关税的不确定性，而且美国国债收益率已经脱离了特朗普总统4月初宣布 对等关税以来的峰值。 ...