Core Viewpoint - The dollar is expected to consolidate after a significant depreciation, but concerns over tariffs could make it vulnerable again [1] Group 1: Dollar Vulnerability - Analysts from Erste Group highlight that the dollar remains weak and could face new pressures if tariff concerns resurface [1] - The potential for a trade war escalation could lead to a loss of investor confidence in U.S. assets, further impacting the dollar [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - Weak U.S. economic growth data is cited as a contributing factor to the dollar's fragility [1] - Criticism from Trump towards the Federal Reserve Chairman adds to the uncertainty surrounding the dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reversal of the US dollar's trend from appreciation expectations to a comprehensive depreciation, highlighting the underlying risks associated with this shift [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance - The US dollar has shifted from a period of expected appreciation to a phase of widespread depreciation, indicating a significant change in market sentiment [1] - This reversal in the dollar's performance may have implications for global trade and investment flows, as a weaker dollar can affect the competitiveness of US exports [1] Group 2: Risks and Implications - The depreciation of the dollar could lead to increased inflationary pressures domestically, as imported goods become more expensive [1] - Investors may need to reassess their strategies in light of the dollar's changing value, particularly in sectors sensitive to currency fluctuations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in supply chain dynamics due to escalating trade tensions, with retailers like Luke Therrien opting to bypass American middlemen and establish direct connections with Chinese suppliers, aiming for a more sustainable and cost-effective supply chain [1][3]. Group 1: Supply Chain Changes - Retailers are increasingly seeking direct relationships with Chinese suppliers to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs and trade tensions [1][3]. - The shift to direct sourcing may lead to longer procurement times and logistical challenges, but it is seen as beneficial in the long run from a pricing perspective [1][3]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Trade Policies - U.S. tariffs and unpredictable trade policies have created chaos in the American market, leading to confusion among exporters regarding customs and tax obligations [3][4]. - Exporters who previously relied heavily on the U.S. market are now considering diversifying their markets due to the instability caused by U.S. trade policies [4][5]. Group 3: Currency and Economic Confidence - The dominance of the U.S. dollar as a trade currency remains significant, providing exporters with predictable payment methods, despite increasing risks [4][5]. - Recent economic turmoil and criticism of U.S. trade policies have shaken confidence in the dollar, with notable figures like Warren Buffett expressing concerns about investing in a currency perceived as unstable [5][6]. Group 4: China’s Response to Trade Tensions - China has taken a firm stance against U.S. unilateral tariff measures, emphasizing its commitment to defending its economic interests while remaining open to dialogue [6]. - The Chinese government has indicated a willingness to engage in discussions with the U.S. regarding tariff adjustments, reflecting a strategic approach to international trade relations [6].

港元汇率再创新高，这背后到底隐藏着怎样的市场玄机？在美联储降息预期的推动下，港元的强势表现 让人眼前一亮，但这真的对香港经济有利？别急，接下来我们就来深扒一下港元升值的双刃剑效应，看 看这波行情究竟是福是祸。 根据香港金管局公布的联系汇率制度，港元兑美元的正常浮动区间为7.75至7.85，金管局会通过买卖美 元来稳定港汇。在美联储降息的不确定性面前，投资者纷纷将目光投向非美货币，以降低风险。无论是 欧元、英镑还是澳元，都成为了投资者眼中的香饽饽，而港元的强势表现也让大家刮目相看。 在美联储即将公布利率决议之际，金管局再度出手，注资605.43亿港元，创下单次注资新纪录。市场普 遍预期，美联储将在5月7日的利率决议中维持利率不变，概率高达97.3%。这次注资是为了应对美元走 弱带来的港元汇率波动，而美联储的货币政策调整将直接影响全球金融市场的走向，尤其是新兴市场货 币的表现。 美联储主席鲍威尔曾表示，央行将等待更明确的信息，以评估关税对经济和通货膨胀的影响。然而市场 显然不这么认为，在投资者眼中，特朗普的政策给美国经济带来的冲击已经不容忽视。 就在市场对美联储利率决议翘首以盼的时候，美元指数却突然大幅下跌。5月 ...

智通财经APP获悉，安联投资全球固定收益首席投资总监MichaelKrautzberger表示，美国经济未来可能 面临增长放缓和通胀上升的局面，这与美联储追求充分就业和维持物价稳定的双重使命背道而驰。特朗 普政府的贸易政策使美联储陷入困境，并导致金融市场、家庭和企业面临高度政策不确定性。安联投资 认为，目前的宏观和政策环境有利于美国收益率曲线陡峭化。此外，预期美元在2025年将面临持续的阻 力，因此倾向于在投资组合中减少美元敞口。 他续指，由于对经济增长前景的日益担忧，短期利率市场已普遍预期美联储将在年底前降息约四次。如 果未来几个月美国经济衰退的风险显著上升，且全球贸易紧张局势进一步升级，市场可能会进一步提前 对降息时间点的预期。贸易政策的不确定性将在未来几个月继续成为金融市场波动的来源。 他续指，美国贸易政策的不确定性，以及美国总统特朗普施压美联储降息，也引发了市场参与者对美国 政策可信度的质疑。受此影响，美国长期债券的期限溢价因此上升，反映出投资者要求更高的风险补偿 以持有美国国债。同时，美元也面临贬值压力。尽管美联储主席鲍威尔的任期至2026年5月才届满，且 特朗普总统无权提前将其罢免，但未来几年美联 ...

Group 1: Asian Currency Surge - The New Taiwan Dollar surged 4.6% against the US dollar, reaching a high of 29.64, the highest since June 2022, with a weekly appreciation of 5.5% [1] - The Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso also saw gains, with the Peso rising 0.3% to 55.465, the highest since September 2024 [1] - The offshore Chinese Yuan broke the 7.20 mark against the US dollar for the first time since November, with a two-day increase of nearly 900 points [1] Group 2: Factors Behind Currency Movement - Key factors driving the rise in Asian currencies include the increasing probability of a US economic recession, which may lead to lower interest rates [3] - Exporters are anticipating further depreciation of the US dollar, prompting them to sell off their dollar holdings [3] - Positive economic fundamentals in Asia, such as record travel data from China, are expected to inject more growth momentum [3] - Increased foreign exchange hedging operations by Taiwanese life insurance companies are also contributing to the currency strength [3] Group 3: Dollar Index Trends - The US dollar index has dropped below the 100 mark, currently at 99.6386, with an 8% decline this year, raising questions about the potential onset of a new bear market [4][6] - Historical trends indicate that the dollar index has experienced multiple bull and bear cycles, with the current period potentially signaling a shift [6] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil opened down 5% due to OPEC+ announcing an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day [7][9] - Major investment banks have revised their oil price forecasts downward, with Goldman Sachs predicting an average Brent crude price of $60 per barrel for 2025 [9] - The market is anticipating an oversupply of oil, leading to a potential price war and increased volatility in the oil sector [12]

在全球储备货币地位受到质疑的背景下，资金从美元流出。亚洲货币在美元疲软的推动下，正在经历一轮强烈的涨幅。 周一，新台币周五以4%的涨幅领涨亚洲股市，创1988年以来最大涨幅；离岸人民币兑美元升穿7.20关口，为去年11月以来首次，日内涨超100 点；港元连续第二天触及交易区间强方。 特朗普反复无常的关税政策加剧了市场对美国经济衰退的担忧。投资者对持有美国资产的意愿正在减弱，投机交易者对美元的看空程度达到了自9 月以来最高水平。 彭博数据显示，衡量亚洲地区货币表现的指标在周五飙升至2022年以来最高水平，而衡量新兴市场外汇回报的指标则创下历史新高。Jefferies的全 球外汇主管Brad Bechtel表示： "解决贸易紧张局势的自然方式是通过美元的贬值，因此，押注美元对亚洲货币的下跌可能是有意义的。" 新加坡银行指出，在贸易谈判乐观预期的推动下，中国台湾出口商抛售美元以及寿险公司外汇对冲操作的力度进一步加大，从而推动新台币兑美 元强劲升值；中国台湾"中央银行"在外汇市场的干预力度减弱，可能也是新台币上涨的原因之一。 港元连续第二个交易日触及其允许交易区间的强端，盘中一度升至区间上限7.75，此后抹去涨幅，目 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Asian currency rally, led by the New Taiwan Dollar, is likely to continue as investors bet that the worst impact of tariffs has passed, with potential concessions from both negotiating parties in the coming months [1] Currency Performance - The New Taiwan Dollar appreciated by 4% against the US Dollar, reaching 29.79 TWD shortly after the market opened [1] - Other Asian currencies have also seen significant appreciation due to the weak performance of the US Dollar, prompting central banks to intervene to prevent excessive volatility [1] Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs analysts, led by Kamakshya Trivedi, indicated that the pressure on the US Dollar, combined with rising recession risks in the US, may lead to lower interest rates [1] - This shift in the economic landscape alters the risk and reward structure for Asian exporters holding US Dollar deposits [1] Future Predictions - Goldman Sachs forecasts continued appreciation of Asian currencies, including the Renminbi, New Taiwan Dollar, and Malaysian Ringgit [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the US dollar's value, attributing the decline to global investor sentiment and the impact of Trump's economic policies rather than direct actions from major foreign holders like Japan and China [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Depreciation Factors - The US dollar index (DXY) has decreased by 9% this year, raising questions about who is selling dollars and the underlying motivations [1]. - Initial speculation pointed to Japan and China as potential culprits for the dollar's decline, but there is insufficient evidence to support this claim [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the uncertainty stemming from Trump's inconsistent economic policies has led to a broad withdrawal of investors from the US market [2]. Group 2: Foreign Bond Sales - Japan has reportedly sold $20 billion worth of foreign bonds recently, but it remains unclear if this is linked to the volatility in the US bond market [2][3]. - There is no substantial evidence that hedge funds are behind the dollar's decline, as recent reports from the CFTC show no significant liquidation of leveraged positions [3][4]. - Both China and Japan lack a strong incentive to sell US bonds, as doing so would likely lead to currency appreciation and negatively impact their export markets [4]. Group 3: Global Investment Trends - A broader trend of investors seeking to distance themselves from the US market is evident, with many now viewing it as a risk asset rather than a safe haven [5][8]. - The shipping industry reflects this trend, with a significant increase in "blank sailings" to the US, indicating reduced trade activity due to tariff policies [5][8]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs predict that as long as the trade war continues, the depreciation of the dollar is likely to persist, with ongoing reassessment of risk and return associated with dollar assets [8].

"这是我的第60次年度大会，是规模最大的一次，也将是最好的一次。"巴菲特说。 当地时间5月3日，被称作"投资界春晚"的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司年度股东大会在美国内布拉斯加州奥马 哈举行。当天，巴菲特宣布计划在年底退休，这或许也将是他作为公司CEO出席的最后一次年度股东大 会。 在长达四个半小时的问答中，巴菲特就关税战、美国财政赤字、美元贬值及人工智能等问题分享见解， 并推荐了自己的"接班人"。 "贸易不应该成为武器" 首个问题直指关税。巴菲特此前曾形容，美政府的关税政策"是一种战争行为"。 美国商务部最新数据显示，美国一季度GDP自2022年以来首次出现萎缩。当天，巴菲特对美国政府的财 政状况提出警告。 "我在年度报告中就简要提到过，美国的财政政策让我害怕。"巴菲特说。 他认为，美国的财政状况不可持续，"我们不知道这意味着两年还是二十年，因为从没有一个国家像美 国这样，但这种情况不可能永远持续下去。" 当天，巴菲特指出，各国之间的贸易平衡是更好的选择，但美政府大范围征收关税的做法并非正确之 举。 "我们应该与世界其它国家开展贸易，做我们最擅长的事，而他们做他们最擅长的事。"巴菲特认为，世 界其它地区越繁荣，就会变 ...