| 1.前言 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 2.美国经济的基本情况展示 | 2 | | 3.美国重要宏观经济指标预测 | 5 | | 4.大类资产配置时钟信号 | 6 | | 5.其他跟踪指标 | 6 | | 6.总结 | 7 | | 图 | 1：美国重要宏观经济指标 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 2：美大中小企业增长态势 | 2 | | 图 | 3：美国通胀率背板 | 3 | | 图 | 4：美国失业率背板 | 3 | | 图 | 5：美国联邦基金利率背板 | 3 | | 图 | 6：美国马歇尔 K 超额流动性度量 | 4 | | 图 | 7：主要利差走势 | 4 | | 图 | 8：美联储扩表行为 | 4 | | 图 | 9：美国实际利率跟踪 | 5 | | 图 | 10：美国 OECD 预测模型 | 5 | | 图 | 11：美国 CPI 预测模型 | 6 | | 图 | 12：大类资产配置时钟状态 | 6 | | 图 | 13：恐慌指数 VIX 涨跌幅 | 7 | 宏观研究 1.前言 本报告的目的在于，对美国经济情况进行跟踪从而更好的把握海外市场的基本面 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising U.S. Treasury yields, particularly in the long-term bonds, due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. economic policies and fiscal outlook, which have diminished investor confidence [1][2] - The JOLTS report indicates that in April, U.S. job vacancies reached 7.391 million, exceeding economists' expectations of 7.1 million, with a notable increase of 191,000 from March [1] - The U.S. manufacturing new orders fell by 3.7% in April, surpassing the Dow Jones forecast of a 3.3% decline, indicating a retreat in demand following a surge in March [1] Group 2 - The strategy team at Rabobank expressed understanding of the lack of appeal for long-term U.S. Treasuries, attributing it to the ambiguous outlook of U.S. trade and fiscal policies [2] - Morgan Stanley's Bob Michele suggested that the U.S. Treasury Secretary has valid reasons to reduce or cancel the issuance of 30-year bonds, similar to recent actions taken by the UK [2] - Jeffrey Gundlach's DoubleLine Capital recommended avoiding or shorting 30-year U.S. Treasuries, reflecting a cautious stance on long-term bonds [2]

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、王茂宇 联系人 | 王茂宇 摘要 2025年初以来，美国大幅"抢进口"，但"累库存"现象相对滞后。展望未来，美国"抢进口"能否持续，"安 全"库存水平会否提升？ 热点思考： 美国经济："消失的"库存？ 一、2025年初以来，美国累库幅度大幅落后于"超额进口" 年初以来，美国"抢进口"现象极为显著。 特朗普胜选以来，随着加征关税预期升温，美国"抢进口"现象 极为显著。中国出口、美国进口、港口数据对"抢进口"现象均有所反映。5月12日中美日内瓦谈判以来， 中国-美国集装箱预订量大幅提升，新一轮"抢进口"已拉开序幕。 但是，一季度美国补库幅度远弱于商品进口，库存"去哪儿了"？ 美国一季度GDP中，商品进口拖累经济 增速5个百分点（环比年化），但库存仅拉动GDP增速2.6个百分点，幅度仅为商品进口的一半。从月度 数据角度来看，美国商品进口增速也远超库存增速。 二、如何理解美国库存与进口的分歧？一季度内需稳健+库存统计滞后 内需韧性和统计的滞后性可解释"消失"的库存。 1）一季度，美国多数行业库存增速提升，但由于美国 内需保持韧性，尤其是投资需求，导致库销比相对稳定。3月，美国商业库销比仅为1.3 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not comment on the U.S. economy or the FOMC interest rate outlook in his prepared remarks [1] Group 1 - The absence of commentary on the U.S. economy suggests a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy [1] - The lack of insights into interest rate projections may indicate uncertainty in the current economic climate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility of gold prices around the $3,300 per ounce mark, driven by U.S. tariff policies and economic conditions, highlighting the ongoing tug-of-war between bullish and bearish market sentiments [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On June 2, gold prices broke through the $3,300 resistance level, with COMEX gold futures reaching a high of $3,384 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 2%, the largest single-day gain in nearly three weeks [1]. - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to President Trump's announcement of increasing tariffs on imported steel from 25% to 50%, which has led to a rebound in gold as a safe-haven asset [1]. - Gold has experienced significant price fluctuations at the $3,300 level this year, previously hitting a historical high of $3,509 in April before dropping to $3,245 due to profit-taking and easing geopolitical tensions [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The $3,300 level has been a focal point for market participants, with recent price movements indicating a struggle between bulls and bears [2]. - The volatility in gold prices is exacerbated by the fluctuating tariff policies of the Trump administration and the market's expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Economic Indicators - Recent data from the CFTC shows an increase in non-commercial net long positions in COMEX gold futures by 10,203 contracts, bringing the total to 174,184 contracts, which represents 39.8% of total positions [3]. - The total open interest decreased by 10,462 contracts or 2.34%, with 294 total traders in the market [3]. - Economic indicators reveal challenges for the U.S. economy, including a rise in initial jobless claims and a significant decline in corporate profits, which fell by $118.1 billion in Q1 2025, the largest drop since Q4 2020 [3]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook suggests that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is still in play, with expectations of three rate cuts within the year, which could benefit gold prices [4].

据报道，美国人口与经济第一大州加州州长纽森的一项举动，如巨石投入平静湖面，激起千层浪。他宣布就关税问题起 诉特朗普政府，直言特朗普政府滥用关税政策的行为"违法"，这一行为严重扰乱了美国经济，给美国经济带来了巨大破 坏。 特朗普（资料图） 加州此番起诉绝非心血来潮。作为美国最大的进口州与制造业中心，加州在国际贸易中占据着举足轻重的地位。2024 年，加州进出口总额高达6750亿美元，对墨西哥、加拿大和中国的出口占比达45%。特朗普一系列激进的关税政策，无 疑是对加州经济的沉重打击。供应链中断，原材料成本飙升12%-15%，6万家小企业出口受阻，港口运营陷入瘫痪，农场 主损失惨重，科技公司无奈停工。如此种种，让加州经济伤痕累累，也成为加州起诉特朗普政府的直接导火索。 加州打响的这第一枪，可能只是暴风雨的前奏。鉴于加州在民主党阵营中的影响力，预计其他由民主党控制的州会纷纷 响应，形成一股强大的反对力量。而且，加州的起诉理由直击要害，指出特朗普政府援引《国际紧急经济权力法》单方 面对全球多国加征关税属于"非法越权"。该法原本用于应对国家安全危机，从未被当作关税工具，且并未明确赋予总统 征收关税的权力。倘若美国法院认可 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the US dollar will depreciate by approximately 9% by mid-next year due to anticipated interest rate cuts and slowing economic growth, potentially reaching levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic [1] Economic Impact - The report highlights that a commonly used dollar index is expected to decline from its current level, reflecting the ongoing pressures on the dollar from trade tensions [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that while the financial situation of American consumers remains stable, their outlook on the future economy is cautious, reflecting a mix of stability and concern [1][3][7] - Approximately 73% of American adults reported their financial situation as "fair" or "comfortable," a figure that remains consistent with 2023 but slightly lower than the 78% recorded in 2021, indicating a stable yet not historically high perception of financial health [1][3] - The percentage of adults able to cover an unexpected expense of $400 remains stable at 63%, similar to previous years, highlighting ongoing economic vulnerability despite a relatively high percentage [1][3] Group 2 - Only 29% of respondents believe the economic situation in 2024 will be "good" or "excellent," a slight increase from 2023 but significantly lower than the 50% recorded in 2019, suggesting persistent long-term economic concerns among consumers [3][7] - The proportion of adults who feel their financial situation has worsened compared to the previous year is 29%, down from a peak of 35% in 2022, yet still above pre-pandemic levels, indicating ongoing economic pressure [3][7] - Inflation remains a significant challenge for consumers, particularly with rising prices for food and everyday goods, although the percentage of those affected has decreased compared to 2023, suggesting improved adaptability among consumers [7] Group 3 - Housing affordability continues to be a pressing issue, with median rent increasing by approximately 10% annually since 2022, leading to greater financial strain on many households [7] - The survey reflects complex consumer emotions in the face of an uncertain economic environment, with stable financial conditions juxtaposed against low confidence in future economic prospects [7] - High prices and housing pressures are identified as the most prominent challenges in the current economy, emphasizing the need for policymakers to address these issues while maintaining economic growth [7]

5月的最后一个交易日，美元走势还是偏弱。今天过后，美元指数5月份预计下跌0.4%，为连续第五个月收跌。 市场分析指出，美元这一罕见走势背后，是特朗普反复无常的贸易政策与日益恶化的财政状况所引发的市场信心危机。同时，投资者对美国经济前景的担忧日 益加剧。 经济数据难以缓解衰退担忧 美国劳工部周四发布的最新数据显示，截至5月24日当周，首次申请失业救济人数激增1.4万人至24万人，远超分析师预期的22.6万人。此外，受消费支出和进 口拖累，美国一季度经济按年率计算萎缩0.2%不及预期。 关税政策混乱，美国资产光环褪色 本周，美元因贸易政策反复而波动不断。 据新华社29日报道， 美国上诉法院恢复实施关税政策，给特朗普政府带来喘息空间。 而就在一天前， 美国一家贸易法院刚刚下令立即阻止这些关税 。 这种朝令夕改的政策环境让投资者无所适从。 当前，法律程序的不确定性已经对市场产生了实质冲击。 关税政策反复就宛如一颗"定时炸弹"，让市场充满谨慎情绪，投资者纷纷撤离美国资产寻求替代选 择，担心特朗普变幻莫测的政策可能挑战美国资产市场的强势地位。 Capital.com高级金融市场分析师Kyle Rodda指出： （法院）这 ...

Economic Growth - Recent data indicates a slowdown in US GDP growth, with certain industries showing insufficient growth momentum [3] - Manufacturing PMI data has been hovering near the expansion threshold, indicating obstacles in manufacturing growth [3] - Although the service sector remains relatively stable, it faces challenges due to fluctuations in consumer spending willingness [3] - The job market shows signs of easing, with a decrease in the number of new jobs despite a relatively low unemployment rate [3] Inflation Concerns - Current inflation levels, while lower than previous peaks, remain above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% [3] - Core inflation persists at elevated levels due to factors such as energy price volatility and lingering supply chain issues [3] - The potential for rising inflation poses a significant threat to long-term economic stability, complicating the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts [3] Market Expectations - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions show significant divergence, with a 97.8% probability of maintaining current rates in the short term [4] - By July, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut rises to 22%, indicating growing market concerns about the US economic outlook [4] - Recent declines in US Treasury yields reflect market expectations of potential rate cuts to stimulate economic growth [4] Monetary Policy Implications - Rate cuts could lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, potentially stimulating investment and consumption [5] - Lower interest rates may enhance the competitiveness of the US economy amid global economic slowdowns and trade tensions [5] - Political factors may influence the Fed's decisions, especially in election years, as there may be pressure to lower rates to stimulate the economy [5] Conclusion - The Fed's interest rate decision is currently in a delicate balance, with considerations for inflation control and economic stimulation [5] - Future decisions will depend on dynamic economic data, inflation trends, and evolving market expectations, impacting both the US economy and global financial markets [5]