Group 1 - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Middle East situation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are driving short-term price volatility in gold, with a potential breakout above $3,450 if conflicts escalate or negotiations fail [2] - The U.S. April CPI shows a year-on-year inflation rate of 2.3%, indicating a decline in inflation; however, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance may limit expectations for interest rate cuts in July [3] - The dollar index is expected to remain high due to Trump's tariff policies, which may suppress gold prices in the short term, while the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs is slowing, reducing the marginal substitution effect of cryptocurrencies on gold [3] Group 2 - Support levels for gold are identified at $3,000 and the $2,920-$2,960 range, while resistance levels are at $3,450 and $3,550 [3] - COMEX gold futures open interest has decreased for two consecutive weeks, indicating short-term speculative profit-taking, while global gold ETF holdings have increased to 3,200 tons, reflecting a 4.7% rise since the beginning of the year [3] Group 3 - Physical demand for gold is showing a mixed trend, with Chinese gold jewelry consumption declining by 8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while investment demand for gold bars and coins has increased by 22% [3] - Central banks are expected to maintain gold purchases at 800-1,000 tons per year, with emerging market central banks like China and India having significant room to increase their gold reserves, which currently account for less than 10% [5] Group 4 - Three potential scenarios for the next six months are outlined: a bullish breakout with a 35% probability if the Fed cuts rates in July and Middle East tensions escalate, a consolidation phase with a 50% probability, and a bearish scenario with a 15% probability if a U.S.-China trade agreement is reached [5] - Short-term strategy suggests building positions in the $3,000-$3,100 range with a stop-loss below $2,920, while a wave strategy recommends adding positions after a breakout above $3,450 with targets of $3,550-$3,650 [5]

Group 1: Tariff Policy Dynamics - The recent US-China tariff truce has temporarily suppressed demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with gold prices dropping to $3,207 per ounce [3] - The tariff agreement, which includes a 90-day buffer period, alleviates concerns over escalating trade tensions, but uncertainty remains regarding future negotiations, potentially supporting gold prices in the long term [3] Group 2: Supply Chain Costs and Inflation Expectations - Tariff policies indirectly affect gold pricing by increasing cross-border trade costs and causing fluctuations in the premium for refined gold, with the London LBMA spot premium varying between $0.3 to $0.5 per ounce [4] - Recurrent global trade tensions could exacerbate supply chain disruptions, reinforcing gold's anti-inflation properties [4] Group 3: Geopolitical Crisis in the Middle East - Escalating conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the Israeli airstrikes in Gaza, have heightened market fears and increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [5] - Ongoing geopolitical events, including US engagements with Houthi forces and delays in Iran nuclear negotiations, have further boosted demand for gold as a "hard currency" [5] Group 4: Restructuring of Safe-Haven Assets - The appeal of US Treasuries and the US dollar as safe-haven assets has diminished, with gold emerging as the dominant safe-haven asset [6] - Gold prices reached historical highs, surpassing $3,500 per ounce, before experiencing a brief pullback to $3,255 per ounce, indicating sensitivity to geopolitical risks [6] Group 5: Market Structure Analysis - The US April CPI rose by 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, yet the Federal Reserve remains cautious about interest rate cuts, leading to conflicting market signals [7] - If inflation continues to decline, expectations for future rate cuts could support upward movement in gold prices [7] Group 6: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3,000 and $2,960, while resistance levels are at $3,450 and $3,550 [8] - Current market indicators suggest a bullish trend, with potential for upward movement if key resistance levels are breached [8] Group 7: Market Outlook - Short-term volatility is expected due to the tariff policy buffer period and fluctuating risk appetite, which may lead to technical corrections in gold prices [8] - In the medium to long term, ongoing geopolitical tensions and rising recession risks, along with central bank gold purchases projected at 1,045 tons in 2024, indicate continued upward potential for gold [8] - Strategic recommendations include monitoring the $3,200-$3,300 support range for short-term opportunities and considering additional positions above $3,450 for long-term holders, targeting above $3,550 [8]

今日重点关注的财经数据与事件：2025年5月14日 周三 ① 待定 欧佩克公布月度原油市场报告 ② 04:30 美国至5月9日当周API原油库存 ③ 14:00 德国4月CPI月率终值 ④ 17:15 美联储理事沃勒发表讲话 ⑤ 21:10 美联储副主席杰斐逊发表讲话 ⑥ 22:30 美国至5月9日当周EIA原油库存 ⑦ 22:30 美国至5月9日当周EIA库欣原油库存 ⑧ 22:30 美国至5月9日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 相关链接 ⑨ 次日05:40 美联储戴利参加一场炉边谈话 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of technical analysis in navigating the fluctuations of the dollar index, likening it to a dynamic ECG that reveals hidden signals in the market [1] - It highlights the effectiveness of trend lines and moving averages in predicting currency movements, particularly during significant market events like the European energy crisis [3] - The article discusses the value of combining technical indicators to enhance predictive capabilities, especially when aligned with fundamental factors such as Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical events [5] Group 1: Technical Analysis - The dollar index's K-line chart serves as a crucial tool for traders to identify key resistance levels and predict strong market trends [1] - The formation of higher peaks and troughs in the dollar index indicates the establishment of an upward channel, particularly noted during the 2022 European energy crisis [3] - The combination of technical indicators, such as MACD and RSI, provides insights into market momentum and trend strength, with specific examples from the dollar/yen exchange rate [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Historical price levels often self-validate, as seen when the dollar/euro exchange rate rebounded after hitting a support level [3] - The emergence of specific price patterns, like the head and shoulders bottom, signals potential trend reversals, while prolonged consolidation phases can lead to significant price movements [3] - Market sentiment, indicated by the VIX index, can create trading opportunities when it inversely correlates with the dollar index [3] Group 3: Investment Tools - Doo Financial offers a multi-dimensional analysis framework and real-time monitoring systems to help investors navigate the complexities of the market [5] - The integration of technical signals with fundamental developments is crucial for making informed investment decisions in a rapidly changing environment [5]

以下文章来源于金十数据 ，作者金十数据 金十数据 . 金十数据官方服务号。汇聚金融投资行业的各类数据和资讯，数据资讯快、准、全。 来源 | 金十数据 北京时间20:30，美国将公布4月CPI数据。尽管中美贸易谈判取得重大进展已彻底重塑宏观格 局，使得CPI数据的前后对比失去意义，但市场仍可能对即将公布的CPI数据做出条件反射式反应 ——哪怕只是短暂波动，以及紧随其后的"特朗普咆哮"（特朗普常在关键数据公布后发文评 论）。 华尔街预计： 食品方面，摩根士丹利和万神殿宏观经济学家指出， 鸡蛋价格显著下跌 （今年前三个月CPI食品 通胀的主要推手），禽流感病例减少或缓解了供应压力。 经济学家与政策制定者正密切关注反映可选消费变化的服务类别。花旗集团经济学家维罗妮卡·克 拉克（Veronica Clark）和安德鲁·霍伦霍斯特（Andrew Hollenhorst）指出，机票和租车等旅行 相关价格连续下跌，3月的疲软数据与4月进一步回落 印证了旅行需求降温的趋势 。 此外，占CPI权重最大的住房类别（含租金）在3月强劲上涨后预计将放缓。万神殿宏观经济学家 塞缪尔·汤姆斯（Samuel Tombs）和奥利弗·艾伦（Ol ...

周一美国和中国宣布达成暂时削减对等关税的协议后，今晚市场继续迎来本周的重磅数据——美国4月CPI，即便上周美联储决议刚过，但这是首份能够更 加充分体现特朗普关税政策影响的重要通胀报告，所以将从经济和美联储政策前景的指引变化上给市场带来关键的指引。 许多经济学家预计，随着时间的推移，其影响将变得更加明显，关税对通胀的全面影响可能会在未来三到六个月内显现。美国银行将4月份的通胀数据描述 为"关税风暴"前的平静。因关税将大幅推高通胀，可能从今年夏天开始，届时美国企业将耗尽现有库存，需要开始以更高的价格销售新产品。 这有助于解释消费者对通胀、经济和就业市场日益增长的担忧。预计周四公布的美国零售额数据将在一定程度上反映出这种担忧；在第一季度末实现1.5% 的健康增长后，经济学家预测4月份零售额将基本持平，因为前期汽车需求有所降温。 同脏压力跟随关税升温 根据FactSet的普遍预期，预计4月份CPI环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.3%。不包括食品和能源成本的核心通胀预计将上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.8%。由于能源价格 拖累通胀压力下降，3月份CPI环比下降，为2020年以来首次。 因此如果数据符合预期，则标志着美国消费者价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the joint statement of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks was released, with each side canceling 91% of tariffs and suspending 24% of tariffs, alleviating concerns about a US economic recession and boosting global risk appetite. Domestically, China's exports in April far exceeded expectations, and the joint statement led to a short - term boost in domestic risk appetite, with the RMB exchange rate and domestic stock markets strengthening. [2] - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks may rebound in the short - term; bonds may experience short - term shock and correction; commodities in different sectors have different short - term trends such as shock, shock and rebound, or high - level shock. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the China - US Geneva talks eased concerns about a US recession, and the US dollar index rebounded. Domestically, China's April exports were strong, and the joint statement boosted domestic risk appetite. Stocks may rebound in the short - term, bonds may correct, and different commodity sectors have different short - term trends. [2] - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors like military, humanoid robots, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market rose. With strong exports and the joint statement, short - term cautious long positions are recommended. [3] - **Precious Metals**: Gold futures prices dropped. Trade tensions eased, the US dollar rose, and geopolitical risks decreased. Gold may be under short - term pressure but has long - term support. Silver is recommended for short - term observation. [4][5] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market rebounded on Monday. The Geneva talks boosted risk appetite. Currently at the peak - to - off - season transition, demand is weak, and supply may peak and decline. Short - term rebound is possible. [6] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices rebounded. Steel mill profits are good, but steel demand is weakening. Supply may increase in the second quarter. Short - term rebound is possible, but the medium - term trend is downward. [6] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Prices rebounded slightly. Iron alloy demand is weakening. Supply is also decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. [7][8] Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The trade truce relieved the commodity market, and oil prices rebounded. Although still bearish overall, the extremely bearish stance has softened. [9] - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices followed oil prices up. Supply is low, demand is being boosted, and inventory transfer and depletion are occurring. It will follow oil prices and fluctuate at a high level. [9] - **PX**: The trade truce benefited the weaving end. PX has many overhauls, and it will remain strong in the short - term. [9] - **PTA**: Tariff cancellation and upstream overhauls led to a rise in the basis. Supply is decreasing and demand is increasing, but there are some factors that may affect future trends. It may be strong in the short - term. [10][11] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The polyester chain benefited from tariff cancellation. Supply is high, but downstream demand is strong, and it will remain strong. [11] - **Short - Fiber**: The yarn mill's operation is stable, and short - fiber prices have rebounded. It will remain strong in the short - term. [11] - **Methanol**: The price in Jiangsu Taicang is strong. Supply pressure is prominent, but there is short - term price repair and medium - term downward pressure. [12] - **PP**: The domestic PP market had a weak morning and a rising afternoon. Production is high, demand is weak, and the LP spread may strengthen in the short - term. [13][14] - **LLDPE**: The PE market adjusted. With increased device overhauls, decreased inventory, and rising oil prices, the price is expected to repair in the short - term. [14] - **Urea**: The domestic urea price increased. Supply is high, but there are short - term positive factors. Future trends depend on export policies. [15] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The China - US talks boosted market sentiment. Supply - side processing fees are falling, and demand may be boosted by tariff cuts. Short - term price is volatile, and mid - term short - selling opportunities may be sought. [16] - **Aluminum**: The tariff situation is complex, and it is recommended to close long positions on rebounds and look for short - selling opportunities later. [16] - **Tin**: Supply may increase as mines are expected to resume production. Demand is entering the off - season, and short - term prices are volatile with risks from production resumption and weakening demand. [17]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 13 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： 建议观望或逢高做空 | | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 走势偏弱 | | ◆玉米： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆豆粕： | 低 ...

Group 1 - The signing of the US-China trade agreement has provided a temporary boost to global markets, but underlying economic risks remain [1] - Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Wilson predicts a year-end target of 6500 points for the S&P 500, indicating a 12% upside potential, as the retreat of tariff threats allows the Federal Reserve to shift its policy focus [3] - Apollo's Chief Economist Slok observes that traders are adjusting their interest rate cut expectations from 3-4 cuts to 2, signaling a shift in market sentiment as recession fears diminish [3] Group 2 - Evercore's founder Altman warns that the current agreement is merely a "90-day high tariff suspension" and highlights that the overall tariff rate remains significantly elevated, which could lead to inflationary pressures [4] - The market is experiencing a cognitive restructuring, balancing short-term risk appetite with long-term structural challenges, as the trade agreement may temporarily boost corporate earnings but does not eliminate the risk of renewed trade tensions [4] - The agreement alters the risk pricing logic for investors, necessitating a more sophisticated warning mechanism for asset portfolios as policy uncertainty transitions from acute risks to chronic variables [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma between preventing inflation caused by tariff policies and avoiding excessive tightening that could lead to an economic hard landing [3] - Market expectations indicate a potential 100 basis points rate cut by the end of the year, reflecting a significant shift in sentiment despite the Fed's current stance [3] - The PCE price index for May showed a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, slightly below expectations, while the core PCE index rose by 0.3% month-on-month, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4] Group 2 - The trade policies of the Trump administration are creating conflicts that challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve, as tariffs raise import prices and undermine business investment confidence [5][6] - The non-farm payroll report for May indicated an addition of 177,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, but the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, highlighting ongoing economic challenges [6] Group 3 - The global capital allocation strategy is undergoing significant changes, with the dollar index facing depreciation pressure and a slowdown in dollar reserve accumulation by central banks [7] - Emerging market bonds, particularly in Asia, are attracting global capital due to higher yields and stable fundamentals, while the Shanghai Composite Index shows long-term investment value despite geopolitical risks [7] Group 4 - dbg markets has introduced three strategies to navigate the complex market environment: establishing a policy shock scenario analysis model, creating dynamic hedging portfolios, and capitalizing on regional economic disparities [8] - The platform emphasizes advanced trading technology and regulatory safeguards, providing a stable trading environment for various asset classes [8] Group 5 - The global financial system is undergoing profound restructuring, and investors are encouraged to seek certainty amid uncertainty as a guiding principle [9] - dbg markets aims to enhance service quality and trading solutions for clients in the evolving landscape of Federal Reserve policy shifts and global economic changes [9]