研究所 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 1、期货市场：期货盘面震荡，最终报收 2215（-9/-0.04%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1860 元/吨，北线报价 1840 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2000 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1860 元/吨，山西地区报价 1980 元/吨，河南地区报价 2090 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2180 元/吨，鲁北报价 2140 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2050 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2070 元/吨，云贵报价 2040 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2210 元/吨，宁波报价 2240 元/吨，广州报价 2190 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 本周期(20251227-20260102）国际甲醇产量为 874699 吨，较上周减少 14700 吨，装置 产能利用率为 59.96%，较上周下降 1.01%。周期内主要装置变动为马石油 3 号停车。 【逻辑分析】 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 供应端，煤制甲醇利润在 450 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽 松。进口端，美金价格小幅上涨，伊朗大部分装置限气停车，非 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton futures have declined for four consecutive trading days. Holiday - season light trading and a stronger dollar have pressured the cotton market. However, geopolitical turmoil during the holiday benefits crude oil prices, which may be transmitted to cotton prices. In general, short - term Zhengzhou cotton may adjust at the current level, but the bottom support is solid and the downside space is limited [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - ICE 3 - month contract settlement price is 64.32, down 3 points; 5 - month is 65.64, up 1 point; 7 - month is 66.85, up 1 point, with about 37,000 lots traded. Zhengzhou cotton total trading volume is 450,502 lots, and the open interest is 1,106,314 lots. Settlement prices are 14,605 yuan/ton for January, 14,550 yuan/ton for May, and 14,725 yuan/ton for September [2] Important Information - In November, Japan imported 1,701 tons of cotton, a 6.6% decrease from the previous month (1,822 tons) and a 28.3% decrease year - on - year (2,374 tons). From August 2025 to July 2026, Japan has cumulatively imported about 6,692 tons of cotton, a 32.5% decrease year - on - year (9,912 tons) [2] - From December 12 to 18, 2025, the United States graded and inspected 199,300 tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, with 83.7% of the lint meeting ICE futures delivery requirements. As of the same period, the cumulative graded inspection was 2,424,300 tons, and 82.7% of the lint met the requirements [2] - On the 19th, the listed volume of Indian cotton for the 2025/26 season was about 42,000 tons of lint, mainly from Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. CCI auctioned about 72,000 tons on the 19th. The S - 6 auction reserve price was stable at 51,300 rupees/candy, equivalent to about 72.50 cents/pound [2] Market Logic - ICE cotton futures have declined for four consecutive days due to holiday - season light trading and a stronger dollar. Geopolitical turmoil benefits crude oil prices, which may affect cotton prices. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton may adjust, but the bottom support is solid [2] Trading Strategy - Hold the call option with an exercise price of 13,600 yuan/ton for the 05 contract [2]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are preparing for futures trading following the U.S. capture of Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro [1] Group 1 - The event is expected to have significant implications for the Venezuelan economy and its oil industry, which is crucial for global oil supply [1] - The capture of Maduro may lead to changes in U.S. foreign policy towards Venezuela, potentially affecting sanctions and trade relations [1] - Market reactions are anticipated as investors assess the potential for increased stability in Venezuela and its impact on regional dynamics [1]

01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 2026.01.05-01.09 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 目录 中线行情分析 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型综合分析，螺纹钢期货主 力合约运行于2882至3330的横盘整理区间。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量184万吨，表观消费量200万吨，主要钢厂库存133万 吨，社会库存430万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货主力合约运行于横盘整理区间。 2 上周策略回顾 螺纹钢期货主力合约进入震荡整理区间。 本周策略建议 根据长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型，螺纹钢期货主力 合约进入横盘整理区间，可考虑实施大网格交易策略。 现货企业套期保值建议 整理阶段建议观望等待新一轮中线趋势明朗。 整理阶段可考虑网格交易策略，系统策略建议：天线3330，地线 2882，网格间距32，网格数量14。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The urea futures market is experiencing a stable yet cautious environment, with prices showing slight fluctuations and supply conditions remaining relatively loose [1][4]. Market Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the main urea futures contract closed at 1749 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase in open interest by 8168 contracts [1]. - During the week of December 29 to December 31, the urea futures opened at 1729 CNY/ton, peaked at 1763 CNY/ton, and dipped to a low of 1721 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 0.81% [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - On December 31, Yanzhou Coal Mining's urea factory in Xinjiang quoted a price of 1310 CNY/ton with a production capacity of 520,000 tons, while Kuitun Jinjian's urea factory quoted 1350 CNY/ton with a capacity of 700,000 tons, both operating normally [2]. - As of December 24, the inventory of urea production enterprises in China was 106.89 million tons, a decrease of 110,800 tons or 9.39% from the previous week [2]. - The port inventory of urea samples in China was 17.7 million tons, which increased by 30,000 tons or 28.2% compared to the previous week [2]. Futures Market Activity - On December 30, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange recorded 12,381 urea futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 1,631 receipts from the previous trading day [2]. - Over the past week, the total growth of urea futures warehouse receipts was 1,849, representing a growth rate of 17.56%, while the monthly increase reached 4,794 receipts, marking a 63.19% rise [2]. Institutional Insights - Guosen Futures noted that the overall urea market is in a state of loose supply, with the current operating rate of urea production enterprises at 81.6%, slightly down but still within a high range [4]. - Demand remains weak, particularly in agriculture, leading to a market characterized by sporadic replenishment [4]. - Everbright Futures indicated that short-term supply and demand changes are limited, with the futures market showing resilience due to external influences, but lacking sustained upward momentum [4].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日星期三 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 工 | 甲醇 | 震荡偏 多 | 【行情复盘】 周二夜盘主力合约 2605 期货价格上涨 27 元至 2226 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 价格上涨 32 元至 2182 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 37592 手至 49.7 万手，空 头持仓增加 4063 手至 57.9 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 91.2%，环比+0.8%。海外甲醇开工率 60.9%，环比+0.6%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 141.25 万吨，较上一期数据增加 19.37 吨。 其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 20.77 万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少 1.40 万吨。 中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 40.40 万吨，较上期增加 1.28 万吨，环比增 3.28%。 3、需求方面，西北甲醇企业签单 ...

Morning session notice 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡偏弱，截至夜盘收盘2603合约跌幅0.54%，收于2229元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示，昨日深加工企业收购价涨跌互现。东北地区深加工企 | | | | | 业收购价2133元/吨，较前一日涨6元/吨；华北地区深加工企业收购价2264元/吨， | | | | | 较前一日跌2元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，昨日港口价格北强南稳。锦州港收购价2282-22 | | | | | 85元/吨，较前一日涨15元/吨；蛇口港成交价2410元/吨，较前一日持平。 | | | | | 3、12月30日，玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增减0手，共计39395手。 | | | | | 4、12月30日，中储粮公司举行玉米采购交易，计划采购玉米量3.9万吨，成交量1. | | | | | ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 31 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏强 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 谨慎持多，轻仓过节 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 触底返弹 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚动空 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints The report presents market analyses and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the supply and demand, market performance, and price trends of each commodity, and provides corresponding trading suggestions based on these factors. Summary by Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market rebounded sharply; influenced by silver's decline and Fed's rate - cut decision; supply remains tight. Suggest waiting for volatility to decline [2]. - **Aluminum**: Price closed slightly lower; supply increased, demand decreased. Expected to oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **Alumina**: Price unchanged; supply decreased due to environmental control, demand remained high. Price to stay weak [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Price rose; supply increased, demand from some industries decreased. Expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Price dropped; supply increased, demand from some sectors decreased, inventory decreased in December. Expected to oscillate at a high level [2][3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Price rose; supply stable, demand from downstream sectors decreased. Suggest waiting for price to decline to enter the market [3]. - **Tin**: Price rebounded; supply tight, influenced by silver and Fed's decision. Suggest waiting for buying opportunities [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Price dropped; inventory decreased, demand weak, supply decreased. Suggest waiting and trying to short the 2605 contract [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Price dropped; supply increased, demand may decrease. Suggest waiting, reference range 765 - 795 [4][5]. - **Coking Coal**: Price rose; supply and demand weak, futures overvalued. Suggest waiting and trying to short the 09 contract [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans oscillate weakly; domestic market is near - strong and far - weak. Core depends on South American output [5]. - **Corn**: Price oscillated; supply - demand contradiction is small. Futures price expected to oscillate [5]. - **Edible Oils**: Market is in oscillation and differentiation. Pay attention to production and bio - diesel policies [5]. - **Cotton**: Suggest buying at low prices, reference range 14300 - 14800 yuan/ton [5]. - **Eggs**: Price oscillated weakly; supply - demand contradiction is small. Futures price expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: Price rebounded; supply - demand pressure eased. Futures price expected to oscillate strongly [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Price oscillated; supply pressure increased but slowed, demand decreased. Suggest buying far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [7]. - **PVC**: Price dropped; supply - demand is weak, macro situation improved. Suggest reverse arbitrage [7]. - **PTA**: PX supply is balanced and loose, PTA supply is balanced and tight. Suggest mid - term long - position for PX and focus on 05 contract for PTA [7][8]. - **Glass**: Price rose; supply - demand expected to improve, undervalued. Suggest waiting [8]. - **PP**: Price oscillated; supply increased, demand decreased. Suggest buying far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [8]. - **MEG**: Price situation; supply is high, inventory increased. Suggest short - position at high prices [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Price oscillated; supply pressure is large, demand is in the off - season. Suggest short - position at high prices [8]. - **Styrene**: Price oscillated; supply - demand is weak in the short - term. Suggest long - position for styrene or reverse arbitrage for pure benzene in the second quarter [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Price rose; supply is large, demand is weak. Suggest short - position [9].

Core Viewpoint - A viral rumor about a "systemically important" bank facing a silver futures market collapse and forced liquidation has circulated widely, but lacks credible evidence to support its claims [1][10]. Group 1: Rumor Details - The rumor originated on social media, claiming that a major bank failed to meet margin requirements and was forcibly liquidated by the futures exchange [1]. - It was reported that the Federal Reserve injected $34 billion into the banking system overnight, following a previous injection of $17 billion [2]. - The bank in question is described as a significant player in the precious metals derivatives market, allegedly breaching risk limits and exhausting credit lines [2]. Group 2: Evidence and Analysis - The Federal Reserve's actual operations included a $17.25 billion injection on December 26, 2025, and a $25.9 billion operation on the following Monday, which are within normal liquidity pressures for year-end [3][6]. - The claim of a $34 billion injection remains unverified, as the New York Fed has not issued any statements supporting this figure [3][6]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) did raise margin requirements for silver trading, but there is no evidence of a major clearing member failing to meet these requirements [7][9]. Group 3: Market Context - The silver market is experiencing high volatility and increased margin requirements, which can lead to forced deleveraging without the need for a bank collapse [15]. - The narrative of a major bank's failure resonates with past events, particularly involving JPMorgan Chase, which has a history of manipulating silver prices [11][12]. - Current data indicates that major U.S. banks, including JPMorgan, are net long in the silver futures market, contrary to the rumors of them being in a precarious position [12].