智通财经C50风向指数调查：6月流动性宽松延续 买卖国债能否重启市场预期分化 智通财经6月7日电，新一期智通财经"C50风向指数"结果显示，6月存单到期量将大幅提升至4.2万亿 元，面对密集到期压力，市场普遍预期银行将加大同业存单发行力度，以对冲潜在流动性缺口，但对整 体资金面扰动有限，尤其在央行开展万亿元买断式逆回购操作背景下，市场机构预计流动性延续宽松。 在20家参与调查的市场机构中，19家预计6月流动性合理充裕，16家认为2025年货币政策维持宽松基 调。对于央行买卖国债能否重启，12家市场机构预计有望适时重启，8家认为还需根据债券市场供需等 综合研判。（智通财经记者 夏淑媛） ...

Group 1 - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are currently seen as having more opportunities than risks, with trading volume returning to 1.3 trillion [1] - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, which is expected to lead to a rise in core assets and a revaluation of the market [3] - Large funds are anticipated to drive the Shanghai Composite Index above 3400 points, with expectations of a quick rally in key sectors such as liquor, pharmaceuticals, and financial real estate [5] Group 2 - The A-share market is expected to catch up with the significant rebound seen in the Hong Kong market, with predictions of increased trading volume potentially reaching 1.5 trillion or even 2 trillion [6] - The market is poised for a broad-based rally, with expectations that both large-cap and mid-cap stocks will rise, benefiting from the overall market sentiment [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that while the micro-cap style has shown strong performance, its advantages may weaken over time, although there are still structural opportunities available [1] Policy Support - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released guidelines on May 16 to optimize the regulation of mergers and acquisitions, which encourages the integration of small and micro enterprises, providing additional funding sources and reducing liquidity pressure for micro-cap stocks [2] - The impact of the new restructuring guidelines on micro-cap stocks is expected to be marginally weaker compared to previous policies, but it still offers long-term support to the market [2] Market Environment - The current financial market in China is characterized by a relatively loose liquidity environment, supported by synchronized expansion in social financing and M2 growth, along with comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts by the central bank [2] - This loose liquidity environment provides systematic support for the performance of high-elasticity styles, including micro-cap stocks [2] Predictive Indicators - The report indicates that the current low concentration of institutional holdings and the lower popularity of large-cap styles are favorable for micro-cap styles [2] - The decreasing PB ratio of large-cap to small-cap stocks since the second half of 2024 suggests a gradual shift of funds towards small-cap styles, enhancing the funding support and popularity for micro-cap styles [2] Funding Types - As of May 27, 2025, among the 400 stocks in the Wind Micro-Cap Index, 72 stocks have a financing participation ratio of 3% or more, and 19 stocks have a financing participation ratio of 5% or more, indicating a high level of participation from high-risk preference funds [3] - Institutional investors have shown increased interest in micro-cap stocks, although they remain cautious in their investment strategies due to risk considerations [3] Calendar Effect - Historical data shows a higher probability of price increases for micro-cap stocks in May, with specific months exhibiting distinct calendar effects [3] - The performance of micro-cap stocks is significantly influenced by the timing of earnings announcements due to their smaller size and initial growth stage [3] Crowding Risk - Currently, the micro-cap style has not triggered any crowding signals, indicating a lower risk of short-term pullbacks due to excessive crowding [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong performance of the micro-cap style is attributed to multiple factors, including macro policies, market environment, and event effects, with the Wind Micro-Cap Index leading the market with a monthly increase of 9.31% and a year-to-date return of 24.37% as of May 27, 2025 [1][6]. Group 1: Policy Benefits - The release of policies aimed at invigorating small and micro enterprises has positively impacted the micro-cap style, particularly following the China Securities Regulatory Commission's guidance on optimizing mergers and acquisitions [2][7]. - The new policies have streamlined approval processes and reduced funding pressures for micro-cap companies, encouraging private equity participation and enhancing support for technology innovation [7][8]. Group 2: Market Environment - A relatively loose liquidity environment, characterized by synchronized growth in social financing and M2, has provided systemic support for high-elasticity styles like micro-cap stocks [2][9]. - The M2 growth rate reached 8.0% in April 2025, the highest in nearly a year, indicating a favorable liquidity backdrop for micro-cap performance [9][11]. Group 3: Predictive Indicators - The current low concentration of institutional holdings and declining large-cap to small-cap PB ratio are favorable for micro-cap style, suggesting increased attention to potential investment opportunities [3][12]. - As of May 2025, institutional holdings remain at a historically low concentration, indicating a broader market focus on smaller companies [12][13]. Group 4: Funding Types - High-risk preference funds have shown significant participation in micro-cap stocks, with 72 out of 400 index constituents having a financing participation ratio of 3% or more [3][16]. - Institutional investors are cautiously increasing their allocation to micro-cap stocks, seeking opportunities while remaining mindful of risk [16][24]. Group 5: Calendar Effects - Historical data indicates a higher probability of micro-cap style gains in May, following a downturn in April, attributed to the resolution of earnings-related concerns [3][25]. - The analysis shows that micro-cap stocks tend to perform well in May due to reduced market anxiety over potential delistings and improved valuation recovery [25][26]. Group 6: Crowding Risk - Current indicators suggest that the micro-cap style has not triggered crowding signals, indicating a lower risk of short-term pullbacks due to excessive crowding [4][30]. - The micro-cap index's crowding score remains low, suggesting minimal risk of significant downturns from overexposure [30][32]. Group 7: Future Outlook - The micro-cap style may experience diminishing advantages, but structural opportunities are likely to persist, supported by ongoing policy backing for small and micro enterprises [5][33]. - Investors are expected to focus more on high-growth quality small and micro enterprises, with potential volatility in the market as liquidity conditions evolve [33][34].

Group 1 - The insurance securities ETF (515630.SH) increased by 0.41%, while its associated index 800 Securities Insurance (399966.SZ) rose by 0.55% [1] - Major constituent stocks such as China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, and China Life saw increases of 1.58%, 2.27%, and 1.74% respectively [1] - CITIC Securities' latest research report indicates that the brokerage sector's valuation is expected to stabilize and rebound due to liquidity benefits from interest rate cuts, strong year-on-year growth in semi-annual reports, and the implementation of a package of financial policies [1] Group 2 - The brokerage sector's valuation has adjusted to a reasonable level, with positive catalysts from fundamentals, policies, and liquidity benefits, as well as merger and acquisition themes stimulating the sector's elasticity [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan's research highlights that value-style active equity funds have a structure more aligned with broad-based indices like CSI 300 and CSI 800, indicating a high overlap with the constituent stocks of the 800 Securities Insurance index [1] - Guotai Junan Futures emphasizes that the financial sector's performance is closely related to macroeconomic recovery expectations, and attention should be paid to the marginal impact of policies on the insurance securities industry [1]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [18]. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations with a small upward trend, supported by strong performances in the automotive, battery, shipping, and chemical pharmaceutical sectors [3][7]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 13.84 times and 36.88 times, respectively, which are at the median levels over the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][17]. - The first quarter GDP growth was reported at 5.4%, indicating strong economic recovery momentum, with improvements in corporate profit growth and cash flow providing fundamental support for the market [3][17]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On May 21, the A-share market opened flat and experienced slight upward movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3394 points. The market showed a general upward trend throughout the day, with significant performances in the automotive and battery sectors [2][7]. - The total trading volume for both markets reached 12,146 billion, which is above the median of the past three years [3][17]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, with structural market conditions likely to continue. Policy support and a loose liquidity environment are anticipated to provide a bottom support for the market [3][17]. - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in the automotive, battery, shipping, and chemical pharmaceutical sectors [3][17].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the continued liquidity easing and the potential outperformance of small-cap stocks in the current market environment, supported by favorable monetary policies and improving credit conditions for small enterprises [2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - A comprehensive monetary policy package was announced, leading to a decline in funding rates, which alleviates financial pressure [2]. - Since 2025, credit spreads have been on a downward trend, indicating an improved credit environment for small-cap companies, which enhances their relative performance [2]. Group 2: Support for Specialized Small and Micro Enterprises - Recent policy initiatives aim to promote the development of specialized and innovative small and micro enterprises, indicating a structural optimization in the industry that holds significant growth potential [3]. Group 3: Investment Value of the CSI 2000 Index - The CSI 2000 Index reflects the overall performance of small and micro-cap listed companies in A-shares, focusing on growth potential in technology manufacturing sectors [4]. - The majority of the index's constituent stocks have a free float market capitalization of less than 5 billion, highlighting its small-cap focus [4]. Group 4: Industry Distribution and Profitability - The CSI 2000 Index has a high allocation in machinery, electronics, and computer sectors, showcasing a strong technology manufacturing characteristic [5]. - The index demonstrates resilient performance with stable revenue growth and superior sales gross margins compared to other small-cap indices [5]. Group 5: Valuation and R&D Investment - As of May 9, 2025, the CSI 2000 Index has a price-to-book ratio of 2.37, with a projected net profit growth rate of 103.07%, indicating strong earnings expectations that support its current valuation [5]. - R&D expenditures and their proportion are steadily increasing within the index, providing innovative momentum for future profit growth [5]. Group 6: Index Performance - The CSI 2000 Index has outperformed other representative indices in both short and long-term periods, with short-term performance showing greater elasticity [6].

Core Viewpoint - The small-cap stocks are outperforming in the current market, reflecting a "small-cap bull" trend driven by liquidity easing, policy support, and positive fundamental expectations [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI 2000 Index has risen over 9% this year, leading the mainstream small and mid-cap indices [1]. - The performance of small-cap stocks is significantly influenced by liquidity conditions, with small-cap stocks showing higher sensitivity to liquidity compared to large-cap stocks [3][9]. Group 2: Policy and Economic Factors - The central bank has indicated a "moderately loose" monetary policy, with expectations for further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, which benefits small-cap stocks [3][9]. - The government is increasing support for "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" enterprises, particularly in sectors like AI, semiconductors, and robotics, which are well-represented in the CSI 2000 Index [5][8]. Group 3: Structural Opportunities - The ongoing state-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms and debt reduction policies are expected to enhance the potential of small-cap stocks through industry consolidation [8]. - In the early stages of economic recovery, small-cap stocks tend to exhibit faster earnings growth, benefiting from their agility in adjusting business strategies [8][9]. Group 4: Investment Trends - As of May, there is a noticeable return to small-cap growth styles, driven by continued liquidity easing and a recovery in market risk appetite [8][9]. - The CSI 2000 ETF has shown significant performance, with a net value growth rate of 24.24% since its inception, outperforming its benchmark [12].

Market Overview - The bond market continued to show weakness, with long-term bonds experiencing larger adjustments, leading to a decline in government bond futures across the board [1][2] - The interbank bond yield rose by approximately 2 basis points, indicating a general upward trend in yields [1][2] Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a net injection of 43 billion yuan in the open market, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and flexibility in monetary policy [1][5] - The monetary policy report emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to stimulate consumption and support economic growth [5][6] Yield Movements - The yields on various government bonds increased, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 2 basis points to 1.7175% and the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 2.6 basis points to 1.902% [2] - In the North American market, U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed results, with the 2-year yield rising by 0.87 basis points to 3.889% while the 10-year yield fell by 0.98 basis points to 4.382% [3] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China showed a slight increase of 0.1% month-on-month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures [7] - The core CPI remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, suggesting limited inflationary pressures in the economy [7] Institutional Insights - Institutions like Huatai and Zhongjin expressed cautious views on the global economy, highlighting risks from tariffs and market volatility, while maintaining a neutral outlook on the domestic economy [8] - The expectation of further monetary easing is prevalent, with potential for a new round of interest rate cuts to support economic growth [8]

Market Overview - On May 8, the A-share market opened lower but rose slightly throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3359 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3352.00 points, up 0.28%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10197.66 points, up 0.93%[8] - Total trading volume for both markets was 13,219 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day[3] Sector Performance - Strong performers included communication equipment, cultural media, batteries, and liquor industries, while precious metals, fertilizers, shipping ports, and jewelry sectors lagged[3] - Over 70% of stocks in the two markets rose, with notable gains in aerospace, communication equipment, and photovoltaic sectors[8] Valuation and Investment Strategy - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 13.68 times and 36.02 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3] - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend, driven by both policy and performance factors, with a focus on sectors with high earnings certainty and clear policy catalysts[3] Policy and Economic Outlook - Recent signals from the Political Bureau indicate potential interest rate cuts and support for technological innovation, enhancing expectations for liquidity easing[3] - The focus is shifting towards expanding domestic demand, with attention on fiscal policy implementation and consumption stimulus measures this month[3] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy and economic recovery delays, and macroeconomic disturbances[4]