前言： 美国通过了"大而美"法案，听起来气势十足，但这事真的"美"吗？背后可能隐藏着一场金融海啸。这不只是美国的事，全世界的钱包都可能被牵连。 特朗普的大手笔，到底有多大？ 最近，美国总统特朗普签署了一项法案，名字听起来挺喜感的——"大而美"。 可这名字不只是夸张，它的内容也确实够"夸张"。 这部法案最核心的一条，就是把美国债务上限直接提高了 5万亿美元。 什么意思？简单说，美国又多了5万亿的"借钱额度"。 原本众议院提的是增加4万亿，结果参议院一拍脑门，干脆多加1万亿，直接冲上41万亿总额。 美国银行的首席投资官哈特内特直接给出了警告： 按照这个节奏，到2028年美债就可能飙到 43万亿，到2032年，超过 50万亿 都不是梦。 还没完。哈特内特还说： 这中间很可能再来一波经济衰退，或者一次新疫情，到时候财政刺激一上，额外还得再加 10万亿。 美国要继续借钱，市场要承压 现在的问题是—— 财政部在猛抽，美联储却没放，甚至还在偷偷抽。 为什么这么说？ 问题来了，美国这么借钱，有底气吗？答案是：现在还真没有。 从今年开始，美国财政部其实就一直在"省着用钱"。 因为之前国会卡住了债务上限，财政部就只能靠TGA账户 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - President Trump continues to challenge the Federal Reserve, criticizing Chairman Powell's performance and pushing for interest rate cuts, which could drive gold prices higher if the Fed responds to his pressure [2] - Trump's recent imposition of a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU may negatively impact the dollar's credibility, leading to a depreciation of the dollar that would benefit gold prices [2] - Technical analysis indicates a strong short-term bullish trend for gold, with a focus on resistance at $3392 and support at $3343 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Ongoing ceasefire negotiations in Gaza are creating uncertainty in the Middle East, which is expected to provide support for oil prices [4] - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. decreased to 424, suggesting a potential decline in U.S. crude oil production, which could also support oil prices [4] - The IEA's monthly report has raised oil supply forecasts for the next two years while lowering demand expectations, indicating limited upside potential for oil prices [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Recent strong performance in copper prices has led to a significant breakout above previous highs, suggesting a high probability of maintaining a strong short-term trend [7] - Short-term focus is on testing support at $5.35 after a strong upward movement [7] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is currently experiencing weak fluctuations, with indicators showing a downward trend below the 20-day moving average, raising concerns about further declines [8] - Attention is on testing support at 38879 [8]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has reached a market capitalization of $4 trillion, making it the first company to achieve this milestone, surpassing the total market capitalization of several countries [1][2] - The article argues that Nvidia's stock is a bubble asset rather than a safe-haven asset, especially in the current economic downturn [2][4] Group 1: Market Context - The current global economic environment is in a downturn, making it crucial to identify safe-haven assets rather than pursuing bubble assets [2][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the pricing logic behind assets, which is often overlooked by investors [2][3] Group 2: Currency and Inflation - Since the 1970s, the U.S. dollar has entered an era of fiat currency, leading to unlimited money printing and a decrease in the real value of money [3][4] - The article highlights that inflation is a result of the declining real value of currency, which affects the perceived value of assets [4][5] Group 3: Asset Valuation - Using a gold standard for asset pricing, the dollar has depreciated by 94.6% since 1971, indicating that the real value of assets like Nvidia's stock may be inflated [5][6] - The article suggests that even when using oil prices as a benchmark, the dollar has depreciated by approximately 31.5% since 1971 [5][6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The expansion of U.S. debt and the potential for further dollar depreciation could lead to inflated asset prices, including Nvidia's market cap [6][7] - The article warns that if the dollar loses its status as the dominant global currency, it could lead to a significant devaluation of dollar-denominated assets [6][7] Group 5: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on defensive assets that provide stable cash flow and interest income, rather than chasing high-flying stocks [7] - The article encourages a long-term investment approach, emphasizing the selection of low P/E ratio companies with strong fundamentals [7]

美联储穆萨莱姆：美元贬值可能会推动通胀。 ...

美联储MUSALEM表示，美元贬值可能导致通胀。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global wealth has been declining, with a 2.4% drop in total private net wealth and a 3.6% decrease in per capita wealth, equating to a loss of approximately $3,200 per person [1][2] Group 1: Global Economic Context - The debt-driven development model established post-World War II is no longer sustainable, leading to a universal wealth shrinkage across nations [1][2] - Global public debt is projected to exceed $102 trillion in 2024, with the U.S. accounting for one-third of this total [1][3] Group 2: U.S. Debt Policy - The recent passage of the "Great American Rescue Plan" will increase U.S. debt by $3.4 trillion, indicating a refusal by U.S. elites to address the debt issue responsibly [2][3] - The U.S. is currently in a deleveraging phase, while other countries are opting for different paths, such as reducing debt levels [4][5] Group 3: Debt Cycle Analysis - The debt cycle consists of five stages, with the U.S. currently in the fourth stage of deleveraging, while continuing to expand its debt [3][6] - Historical debt crises have shown that high debt levels can lead to significant economic repercussions, particularly for the U.S., which is the largest debtor nation [6][7] Group 4: Dollar Depreciation - The U.S. dollar has depreciated by 10% this year, with potential further declines of up to 50% anticipated due to both active and passive factors [7][8] - Historical instances of dollar depreciation have often preceded significant economic crises, suggesting that the current situation may lead to substantial market impacts [8][9] Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to reduce exposure to dollar-denominated assets and consider reallocating funds into safe-haven assets such as commodities and high-dividend stocks [9][10] - The current market trend indicates a strong preference for high-dividend bank stocks, reflecting a shift towards risk mitigation strategies [10]

Core Insights - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate that foreign holdings of U.S. assets remain stable despite fluctuations in the stock market and short-term Treasury yields [1] Group 1 - The U.S. dollar index has continued to decline, aligning with a significant downward adjustment in the growth outlook for the U.S. relative to other major economies [1] - Foreign investors have increased currency hedging flows towards U.S. assets due to the depreciation of the dollar [1] - The sensitivity of the dollar exchange rate to domestic economic surprises has not fundamentally changed [1]

Core Viewpoint - The decline of the US dollar, influenced by Trump's tariffs and rising national debt, is prompting global investors to reconsider their reliance on the dollar [1][3][5]. Group 1: Dollar Decline and Economic Impact - The dollar index fell by 10.8% in the first half of 2025, marking the worst start since the end of the gold-backed Bretton Woods system [1]. - The US economy is facing significant issues, including a 0.5% contraction in Q1 GDP and a consumer confidence index drop to 93, alongside a national debt exceeding $37 trillion [3]. - The trend of de-dollarization is evident, with BRICS countries increasing their local currency settlements by 47%, and the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves dropping to 58%, the lowest since 1995 [3]. Group 2: Trump's Influence on Dollar Value - Trump's imposition of widespread tariffs during his second term has contributed to the dollar's decline, creating market uncertainty [3][6]. - The weakening dollar is seen as beneficial for US exports, potentially reducing the trade deficit, as it makes American goods cheaper on the international market [6][10]. - Despite the short-term benefits of a weaker dollar, there are concerns that it may undermine the dollar's credibility and accelerate the trend of de-dollarization [6][10]. Group 3: Historical Context and Comparisons - The current dollar crisis mirrors the events of 1973, when the dollar depreciated due to the end of the gold standard and the oil crisis, leading to global inflation and a significant stock market decline [4]. - The weakening dollar has led to a stronger euro and yen, with capital flowing back to European and Japanese markets, while emerging markets like India attract foreign investment [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline of the US dollar, highlighting that it has experienced its worst first half since the early 1970s, with a nearly 11% drop in the ICE dollar index in the first six months of 2025, raising concerns about a potential long-term depreciation cycle for the dollar [2][5]. Group 1: Factors Contributing to Dollar Weakness - **Increased Foreign Exchange Hedging Demand**: Following the 2008 financial crisis, foreign investors had minimal need to hedge currency risks due to the strong performance of the US stock market. However, recent strong performances in international markets and uncertainties surrounding trade policies have led to a rise in hedging demand, contributing to the dollar's decline [8][9]. - **Anticipation of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts**: The expectation of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as indicated by market tools, adds downward pressure on the dollar. Many analysts believe that the Fed has more room to cut rates compared to other major central banks, which could further weaken the dollar [10][12]. - **De Facto Weak Dollar Policy**: The current US administration's policies appear to align with a "de facto weak dollar policy," which may enhance the competitiveness of US exports. This could benefit large US companies with significant overseas revenues, as a weaker dollar may lead to increased profitability [13].

美元刚刚经历了自20世纪70年代初以来最糟糕的上半年表现。而不少业内人士表示，下半年美元的 前景可能也好不到哪里去…… 在2025年的前六个月，ICE美元指数累计下跌了近11%，这是自1973年尼克松时代以来该指 数在历年上半年的最大跌幅。 而1973年也正是布雷顿森林体系最终彻底崩溃的一年，西方国 家在当时放弃了固定汇率制，转而实行浮动汇率制。 事实上，过去十年间，美元也曾经历过其他疲弱期，但正如下图所示，没有哪一次像过去六个 月时间里发生的那样严重。 这一次，风向似乎正在彻底转变，且对美元不利。如今，华尔街很少有人预期美元在未来一年 左右时间会走强。有些人甚至认为这可能是美元长期贬值周期的开始。美元汇率的持续下跌， 也正开始使其作为全球顶级避险资产的地位，受到愈发尖锐的质疑。 对此， 杰富瑞集团全球外汇主管Brad Bechtel表示，"我认为美元的整体趋势仍将走低。" 外汇对冲需求 Bechtel和其他一些业内人士盘点了美元目前面临的三大利空： 通常，这些以本国货币计算回报但投资于以其他货币计价资产的投资者，会使用远期等衍生品 合约来对冲货币风险。多年来，随着美国股市和美元持续攀升，持有美股和美债的外国 ...