Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of the first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism in London, highlighting it as a significant opportunity for both parties to resolve differences through equal dialogue [1] - The article discusses the balanced benefits of China-U.S. trade relations, noting that the U.S. trade deficit with China is a result of structural issues in the U.S. economy and the comparative advantages of both countries [1][2] - It is mentioned that the U.S. service trade surplus with China is projected to reach $27.3 billion in 2024, indicating a significant advantage for the U.S. in the service sector [1] Group 2 - The article points out that the U.S. trade deficit with China, when calculated based on trade value added, would be significantly reduced, suggesting that China does not actively pursue a trade surplus [2] - It highlights that the U.S. trade deficit with China has decreased as a percentage of its total trade deficit, from 47.5% in 2018 to 24.6% in 2024, indicating a shift in the U.S. trade dynamics [2] - The article criticizes the U.S. for politicizing economic issues and implementing discriminatory measures against China, which hinder U.S. companies from capitalizing on market opportunities in China [2] Group 3 - China is actively promoting high-level openness and expanding imports, providing more opportunities for countries, including the U.S., through various trade exhibitions and initiatives [3] - The article asserts that the true nature of China-U.S. economic relations is one of complementary advantages and mutual benefits, advocating for the removal of artificial barriers to enhance cooperation [3] - It expresses optimism that through equal consultation and pragmatic cooperation, both countries can find mutually beneficial solutions that will contribute to global economic recovery and growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions between China and the United States have led to significant shifts in trade patterns, particularly in the oil sector, with China halting imports of U.S. crude oil for two consecutive months, resulting in the lowest U.S. crude oil export levels since 2020 [1][8]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - The U.S.-China trade war began in 2018, initiated by the Trump administration's imposition of tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods, citing trade deficits and intellectual property concerns [1][3]. - China responded with tariffs ranging from 5% to 25% on U.S. products, significantly impacting U.S. agricultural exports, particularly soybeans [3]. - The trade conflict escalated with the U.S. targeting Chinese tech firms like Huawei, leading to further tariffs on $1.2 trillion and $1.8 trillion worth of Chinese goods [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The U.S. trade deficit has increased from $950.2 billion in 2018 to $1,211.75 billion in 2024, indicating that the tariffs have not achieved their intended goal of reducing the trade deficit [7]. - Over 90% of the tariff costs have been passed on to U.S. importers, downstream businesses, and consumers, leading to increased prices and living costs in the U.S. [7]. - Despite facing some export pressures, China has shown resilience by expanding domestic demand and diversifying trade partnerships, maintaining stable economic growth [7]. Group 3: Energy Sector Dynamics - The halt in U.S. crude oil imports by China is attributed to the U.S. tariff policies, which have diminished the price advantage of U.S. crude oil for China [8]. - The U.S. shale oil producers are projected to face losses of at least $10 billion due to the absence of the Chinese market, with U.S. crude oil exports dropping to 3.883 million barrels per day, a 4% decrease [8]. - China is actively seeking to diversify its energy imports, with agreements in place with Russia and Qatar to secure alternative oil and gas supplies [8]. Group 4: Global Economic Implications - The trade war has disrupted global supply chains, forcing multinational companies to reallocate resources and adjust production strategies, thereby increasing operational costs and risks [10]. - The unilateral actions by the U.S. have undermined the multilateral trade system, leading to slower progress in global trade negotiations and increasing trade disputes among nations [10]. - Some Southeast Asian countries have benefited from the trade war as they become alternative production bases for multinational companies, while those reliant on U.S.-China trade face economic slowdowns [10].

Group 1 - The core focus of the US-Japan tariff negotiations is the trade deficit, with Japan's strong stance against making unprincipled concessions to the US [1] - Japan holds significant leverage in the negotiations due to its substantial holdings of US Treasury bonds, which could impact the US economy if sold off [1] - Japan's proposal includes a comprehensive cooperation plan targeting China in key areas such as rare earths, semiconductors, and liquefied natural gas [3][5] Group 2 - Japan aims to reduce the trade deficit with the US while aligning with US efforts to counter China's technological advancements [3] - The internal divisions within the US negotiation team complicate the discussions, with differing views among key officials [5] - The historical context of US-Japan relations shows a shift from a subordinate relationship to a more balanced negotiation dynamic, with Japan leveraging its economic position [8]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20250608 5 月非农超预期带动降息预期进一步降温 2025 年 06 月 08 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 ◼ 5 月非农：新增就业与时薪略超预期令降息预期进一步降温，但数据细 节或暗示美国劳务市场"外强中干"。美国 5 月新增非农就业+13.9 万， 预期+12.6 万，前值由+17.7 万下修至+14.7 万，前两个月数据累计下修 9.5 万。失业率 4.2%，持平预期与前值。时薪环比+0.4%，预期+0.3%， 前值+0.2%。从结构上看，新增就业的主要贡献来自教育医保（+8.7 万） 和休闲餐旅（+4.8 万）。整体来看，5 月略超预期的新增就业和时薪令市 场交易美国经济不着陆，降息预期进一步降温，截至最新联邦基金期货 市场预期 9 月降息概率下降至 68.3%，到 25 年底 ...

Core Viewpoint - The increase of tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% is expected to significantly raise costs for various industries in the U.S., leading to higher prices for consumers and potential job losses in sectors reliant on these materials [4][10][25]. Group 1: Impact on Industries - The steel cable industry, represented by companies like Walz's, faces severe challenges due to increased raw material costs and competition from foreign products [1]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly metal manufacturing, is projected to incur an additional cost of $22.4 billion for imported steel and aluminum, with derivative product costs rising by $29 billion [7]. - The construction industry anticipates an increase in average new home costs by over $10,000 due to the tariffs, exacerbating existing pressures from high housing prices and mortgage rates [16][18]. Group 2: Consumer Impact - The tariffs are expected to raise prices across a wide range of consumer goods, including automobiles, household appliances, and canned foods, disproportionately affecting low-income households [10][14]. - The cost of essential items, such as canned foods and housing, is likely to rise significantly, impacting affordability for ordinary families [14][16]. Group 3: Employment Effects - The tariffs may lead to a net loss of jobs, with estimates suggesting that while the steel industry could gain around 1,000 jobs, other sectors like manufacturing and construction could lose approximately 75,000 jobs [25][29]. - The overall economic outlook is pessimistic, with recent data showing a slowdown in job creation, indicating that the tariffs may be counterproductive to the goal of protecting American jobs [22][25].

Group 1 - France's trade balance recorded a deficit of €7.968 billion in April, marking the largest deficit since September 2024 [1] - The industrial output in France for April showed a month-on-month decline of 1.4%, representing the largest decrease since May 2024 [1]

法国4月 贸易逆差79.68亿欧元，前值由逆差62.48亿欧元修正为逆差62.72亿欧元。 ...

美国《纽约时报》指出，4月进口额较3月下降16.3%，很大程度上反映了这样一个事实：美国进口商在 特朗普年初加关税的威胁下，大量进口商品到美国。随着4月初特朗普正式宣布对美国所有贸易伙伴国 加征关税，进口开始枯竭并扭转经济数据。 【文/观察者网 王一】美国总统特朗普关税政策造成的冲击已经开始显现，4月美国进口额、商品和服 务贸易逆差齐下降，创下这两个数据有记录以来最大的月度降幅。 当地时间6月5日，美国商务部公布的数据显示，4月美国进口额环比下降16.3%至3510亿美元。受此影 响，商品和服务贸易逆差也降至616亿美元，为2023年9月以来的最低水平。美国商务部表示，这是有记 录以来进口额和贸易逆差的最大月度降幅。 具体来看，4月美国商品和服务进口环比下降16.3%，至3510亿美元，为历史最大降幅。由于药品进口 额下降了260亿美元，整体消费品进口下降32%至699亿美元。工业用品和材料、汽车零部件的进口也急 剧下降。 美国从大部分主要贸易伙伴国进口的商品均有所减少。美国4月从欧盟的进口额下降了超290亿美元，从 加拿大、墨西哥的进口额均分别下降了60多亿美元，从中国的进口额也下降了40亿美元。美国商务部 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - Chinese assets experienced a significant surge, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising over 1.4% and leveraged ETFs gaining more than 3% [1][3] - Major Chinese concept stocks saw substantial increases, including Kingsoft Cloud up over 9% and Alibaba, NetEase, and Baidu rising over 1% [3] Group 2: U.S. Trade Data - The U.S. trade deficit in April recorded a historic decline of 55.5%, reaching $61.6 billion, the lowest level in 2023 [3][4] - Exports amounted to $289.37 billion, a 3% month-over-month increase, while imports fell sharply by 16.3% to $350.99 billion, marking the largest decline on record [4][6] Group 3: Employment Market Signals - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 247,000, the highest level since October 2022, indicating a cooling labor market [9][10] - The ADP report showed that private sector job growth slowed to just 37,000 in May, the lowest increase in over two years, suggesting a weakening employment landscape [13]

Group 1 - Canada's trade deficit with the world surged from 2.3 billion CAD in March to approximately 7.1 billion CAD in April, marking the largest deficit on record [1] - Total goods and services trade deficit reached about 7.5 billion CAD in April [1] - Canadian goods exports fell to approximately 60.4 billion CAD in April, representing a 10.8% month-over-month decline, the largest drop in five years [1] Group 2 - Major declines in goods exports were observed in motor vehicles and parts, consumer goods, and energy products, with motor vehicle exports decreasing by 17.4% and passenger car and light truck exports dropping by 22.9% [1] - Consumer goods exports fell by 15.4% to 7 billion CAD, the lowest level since December 2023 [1] - Energy product exports have declined for the third consecutive month due to decreased demand amid economic uncertainty [1] Group 3 - In April, Canada's total goods imports decreased by 3.5% to approximately 67.6 billion CAD, with significant declines in motor vehicles and parts, industrial machinery, and consumer goods [1] - However, imports of unrefined gold, silver, and platinum group metals saw a substantial increase [1] Group 4 - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 15.7% in April, marking the third consecutive month of decline, while imports from the U.S. also fell by 10.8% [2] - The trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed to 3.6 billion CAD, the smallest surplus since December 2020 [2] - Exports to countries outside the U.S. increased by 2.9%, with the largest growth seen in exports to China, the UK, Algeria, and Brazil [2] Group 5 - Imports from countries outside the U.S. rose by 8.3% to a record 29 billion CAD, with total goods trade with non-U.S. countries reaching 47.3 billion CAD, also a monthly historical high [2] - The international services trade deficit narrowed from 500 million CAD in March to approximately 300 million CAD in April, with both service imports and exports declining slightly [2]