前言： 2026年的第一缕阳光，祝大家大年初一新年快乐。此刻，窗外是爆竹声声，我坐在屋内看盘。作为一名 黄金分析师，常年跟K线和数据打交道，越是节假日，越要保持清醒。但今天，我想把这份清醒化作一 份祝福。马年代表着活力，也代表着远方。新的一年，我们做交易不仅是为了盈利，更是为了给家人一 份安稳的未来。祝各位马年策马奔腾、财源广进！ 进入2026年，市场将面临更加复杂的挑战，无论是贵金属市场，还是股票市场，都将迎来新的更大的机 会和挑战，当很多人眼里看到机会的时候，我反而看到了风险，这个世界，真理永远掌握在少数人手 中，大部分的认知和决策，一定是错的，羊群效应在投资市场上最直白的体现就是跟风，而跟风绝不可 能立足于市场。作为普通人，我们需要磨练的是自己的认知和提前预判的感知能力以及专业水平，而不 是关注市场如何运行，任何时候，账户的掌舵人是自己，而不是市场。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周二（2月17日）亚市早盘时段，现货黄金震荡走低，现交投与每盎司4960美元附近，日内跌幅约 0.5%。由于周一美国市场因总统日休市，而中国新年假期市场休市，在流动性清淡的交投中，金价震 荡走低近 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company expresses optimism about the Chinese economy's resilience and the capital market's potential for growth in 2026, emphasizing a commitment to client-centric investment management and wealth creation [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - By the end of 2025, China's GDP is projected to achieve a growth target of 5%, with exports exceeding expectations, contributing to global economic recovery [3]. - The A-share market has shown significant recovery, with major indices rebounding over 15 months and the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points, marking a ten-year high [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The company plans to leverage a combination of fiscal leadership, stable exchange rates, and supportive monetary policies to navigate the economic landscape [4]. - Investment opportunities are anticipated in the equity market, shifting from valuation recovery to profit-driven growth, particularly in sectors like AI and cyclical industries [4]. - The fixed income market is expected to maintain a stable interest rate environment, with convertible bonds likely benefiting from equity market trends [4]. Group 3: Company Initiatives - The company aims to enhance its research and investment capabilities to provide sustainable returns across various market conditions [5]. - A comprehensive product service system will be developed to meet market trends and client needs, focusing on pension solutions and lifecycle investment products [5]. - A robust risk management framework will be established to protect investors' interests, ensuring transparency and compliance [5]. - The company will upgrade investor engagement services through diverse channels, promoting long-term and value-based investment philosophies [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to reinforce its rationale for resuming tightening policies in the February meeting minutes, highlighting persistent inflation, strong demand, and ongoing capacity pressures without indicating any significant shift from previous policy guidance [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The minutes will detail the logic behind the RBA's decision to raise interest rates for the first time in over two years [1] - The focus will be on subtle details regarding the emphasis on strong demand, tight labor market, and capacity constraints in the overall economy [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - Investors are likely to scrutinize the extent to which the committee has highlighted strong demand and limited supply capacity, which have intensified price pressures [1] - The minutes may reinforce the stance that policy remains data-dependent and maintains a tightening bias [1] Group 3: Future Implications - If demand growth continues to outpace supply and inflation does not effectively ease, further interest rate hikes remain a realistic possibility [1]

多家信息源近日警示，居民持有的存款和现金，可能正面临新一轮的购买力缩水。 尽管美国在军事开支上不遗余力，但其作为当今世界首屈一指的强大国家，其金融霸权体系至今仍无可匹敌。全球外汇储备中，美元的占比依 旧高达百分之五十六点九，这使得世界金融市场常常因美联储的一举一动而风起云涌。 我们注意到，2025年广义货币供应量M2预计同比增长8.5%，净增约26.5万亿元。若2026年继续维持此增长速度，全年M2的增量将达到约29万 亿元。如此巨量的资金流入社会，对物价水平的影响将是显而易见的，这也恰恰是我国经济发展的既定目标之一。 自中央经济工作会议确立促进经济稳定增长的基调以来，央行和发改委相继明确将促进物价合理回升作为2026年货币政策的重要考量。因此， 央行在最新的货币政策执行报告中新增"降准降息"的表述，便不足为奇了。 从目前主流机构的观点来看，降息降准的操作窗口期，有望在"两会"结束后开启，为"十五五"规划的开局赢得一个良好的开端。毫无疑问，一 旦降准降息落地，流入社会的资金将进一步增加，物价上涨的目标也将随之实现。与此同时，无论是我们的存款还是现金，其购买力都将不可 避免地下降，面临一场"贬值潮"。 需要强调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent market volatility is primarily driven by algorithmic trading rather than fundamental changes in the economy, creating pricing errors that present opportunities for active investors [1][5]. Group 1: Algorithmic Trading and Market Dynamics - Algorithmic trading adjusts risk exposure mechanically based on rules rather than fundamental analysis, leading to indiscriminate selling during market downturns [3]. - This feedback loop can disproportionately affect both strong and weak companies, as algorithms do not differentiate between them [3][5]. - The current market environment is characterized by a "climbing a wall of worry," which historically indicates a strong bull market [5][6]. Group 2: Structural Transformation in Technology - The market is undergoing a transition from a one-size-fits-all SaaS model to highly customized AI-driven platforms, which has led to excessive market reactions against traditional SaaS companies [4][5]. - Active investors are focusing on companies that are successfully transitioning to AI platforms, as algorithmic trading fails to recognize these distinctions [5][6]. Group 3: Capital Expenditure and Market Sentiment - Concerns over the aggressive capital expenditures of major tech companies (Mag 7) are misplaced; the current environment resembles 1996, not the peak of the 1999 bubble [6][7]. - The market's reaction to increased spending by tech giants indicates a cautious investor sentiment rather than irrational exuberance [6][7]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Implications of AI - The rise in productivity driven by AI could lead to a decrease in inflation, challenging the traditional narrative that growth always leads to inflation [10][11]. - Predictions suggest that the U.S. could achieve a budget surplus by the end of the current presidential term, driven by increased productivity and economic growth [10][22]. Group 5: Employment Trends and Entrepreneurship - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with significant downward revisions in employment numbers, but there are positive trends among younger workers, indicating potential for entrepreneurial growth [15][16]. - The accessibility of AI tools is expected to spur a wave of new startups, contributing to productivity gains [17][16]. Group 6: Inflation and Consumer Sentiment - Current inflation indicators show a downward trend, with real-time metrics suggesting inflation is significantly lower than government statistics indicate [12][40]. - Consumer sentiment remains low due to job market concerns and affordability issues, despite some positive economic indicators [15][36]. Group 7: Market Indicators and Investment Strategy - The relationship between the S&P 500 and gold, as well as oil prices, suggests a favorable environment for consumers and businesses, with oil price declines acting as a tax cut [41][42]. - The current market conditions present significant investment opportunities, particularly in sectors poised for growth due to technological advancements [44][45].

野村（Nomura）研究分析师称，印度央行预计将维持利率不变，至少到2027年底。这些分析师在一份 报告中写道，新CPI系列下的通胀走强以及更积极的增长前景意味着印度央行不太可能很快降息。 这些分析师补充说，通胀轨迹基本未变，新的CPI系列预计不会改变印度央行的看法，即基本通胀依然 温和，且牢牢锚定在其4%的中期目标。这些分析师称，与美国和欧盟的贸易协议、印度的"扩张性"预 算以及以往降息的滞后效应，也都为2027财年更强劲的GDP增长奠定了基础。 责任编辑：刘明亮 野村（Nomura）研究分析师称，印度央行预计将维持利率不变，至少到2027年底。这些分析师在一份 报告中写道，新CPI系列下的通胀走强以及更积极的增长前景意味着印度央行不太可能很快降息。 这些分析师补充说，通胀轨迹基本未变，新的CPI系列预计不会改变印度央行的看法，即基本通胀依然 温和，且牢牢锚定在其4%的中期目标。这些分析师称，与美国和欧盟的贸易协议、印度的"扩张性"预 算以及以往降息的滞后效应，也都为2027财年更强劲的GDP增长奠定了基础。 责任编辑：刘明亮 ...

按年率计算，日本2025年第四季度产出增长0.2%，不及1.6%的预期；上一季度产出则下降2.3%。技术 性衰退通常被定义为连续两个季度的收缩。数据公布后，日经225指数开盘上涨0.12%，但日元兑美元 汇率下跌0.25%。明治安田的经济学家Maeda指出，"最新数据显示，经济复苏的动能显然不够强劲，消 费、资本支出和出口——这些我们原本预期增长的领域，现在来看都未达到预期。"三菱UFJ研究咨询 首席经济学家Shinichiro Kobayashi表示："央行加息不会导致经济停滞，日本央行的重点很可能是如何 控制通胀。" 日本官方数据显示，世界第四大经济体的国内生产总值（GDP）在第四季度仅增长0.1%，低于市场预 期的0.4%。日本内阁府的数据显示，日本经济2024年收缩0.2%，2025年增长1.1%。在第四季度经济增 长之前，上一季度的数据为-0.6%，向下修正后为-0.7%。 ...

本周美联储会议纪要携PCE数据登场，中国多地市场因春节假期休市 随着本周美联储会议纪要的发布以及PCE数据的亮相，全球金融市场再次迎来了一场瞩目的焦点。在这 样的背景下，中国多地市场因春节假期休市，暂时避开了一场可能的金融风暴。 首先，美联储会议纪要的公布，为我们揭示了美联储对于未来货币政策走向的最新思考。其中可能涉及 的加息、缩表等议题，无疑将对全球金融市场产生深远影响。尤其是美元汇率的走势，将直接影响到全 球资金流向和各类资产的价格。同时，PCE数据的发布也为市场提供了更多关于美国通胀、经济增长等 方面的信息，有助于市场预测未来的利率走势。 然而，就在这样的全球金融大潮中，中国多地市场因春节假期休市，暂时避免了可能的冲击。春节作为 中国最重要的传统节日之一，市场在此期间的休市，既是尊重传统，也是对投资者的一种保护。在春节 期间，投资者有更多的时间陪伴家人，享受节日的欢乐，暂时避开市场的波动。 当然，虽然市场休市，但并不意味着中国的金融市场与全球金融市场的联系就此断开。实际上，全球金 融市场的每一次波动都可能对中国市场产生影响。因此，即使在休市期间，投资者也需要密切关注全球 金融市场的动态，以便为节后市场的 ...

日本政府2月16日公布的初步数据显示，2025年10至12月当季实际GDP环比增长0.1%，此前一季度为环 比萎缩0.7%，这一复苏为日本央行进一步收紧货币政策提供了空间。日本执政联盟伙伴日本维新会代 表吉村洋文表态称，加息事宜应由日本央行独立决定，政界不应干预，政府应通过相关财政举措打造强 劲经济，以应对加息可能带来的冲击，同时推动落实为期两年的8%食品消费税暂缓征收计划。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 前日本财务省负责国际事务的副大臣中尾武彦表示，日本央行当前政策行动"落后于形势"，提高利率将 有助于解决通胀问题并稳定市场。 "稳步且渐进的加息可以应对通胀，遏制日元过度贬值，并稳定长期债券收益率。"中尾武彦指出，从全 球视角来看，在通胀持续的背景下，日本政策立场缺乏连贯性，日本央行必须关注汇率，即便相关法律 未明确规定，检查汇率稳定性也是理所应当的。他补充称，"汇率受货币政策的影响非常大。疫情结束 后，日本央行没有很快调整利率，而美联储虽然曾被批评行动迟缓，但从2022年开始非常迅速地提高了 政策利率。" 来源：市场资讯 ...

Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a decline, with the latest price reported at $4986.47 per ounce, down 0.65% from an opening price of $5019.14 per ounce, reaching a high of $5030.62 and a low of $4954.42 [1] - The U.S. inflation data for January was below expectations, reigniting hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, overshadowing the strong employment data from the previous week [1] - The S&P 500 index saw a slight increase due to favorable inflation data, while the Nasdaq index declined under pressure from major tech stocks [2] - The market is cautious ahead of the U.S. Presidents' Day holiday, with significant volatility expected as midterm elections approach and potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership loom [2] Gold Market - Gold prices rose over 2% last Friday, closing the week higher at $5022.06 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.2% [3] - The easing inflation concerns have alleviated market tensions, leading to a bullish sentiment for gold, with expectations of a cumulative rate cut of 63 basis points this year, the first cut anticipated in July [3] - Demand for gold remains strong in China ahead of the Spring Festival, while the Indian market has shifted to a discount [3] - ANZ has raised its second-quarter gold price forecast to $5800 per ounce, citing increased attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Oil Market - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with Brent crude futures rising by 0.3% to $67.75 per barrel, and U.S. crude futures up by 0.08% to $62.89 per barrel [4] - Despite the slight rebound, both benchmarks recorded weekly declines, influenced by concerns over OPEC+ potentially resuming production increases [4] - The U.S. inflation data has improved risk appetite, which may positively impact economic growth and energy demand [4] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar remained stable against major currencies, with January inflation data suggesting the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged [5] - The Japanese yen experienced its strongest weekly gain in about 15 months, supported by political stability following the recent election [6] - The Australian dollar has shown significant performance, becoming the best-performing major currency of 2026 so far, despite a slight decline at the end of the New York session [7]