贵金属日报 | 2026-01-14 避险溢价加持 贵金属延续强势 市场分析 地缘上，美国总统特朗普称，他已经取消所有与伊朗官员的会谈。美国国务院已要求美国公民立即离开伊朗。美 国防部官员透露，美国总统特朗普已听取关于应对伊朗局势的军事和隐蔽作战选项的简报，这些选项"种类广泛" 且"远超传统空袭"。通胀方面，美国2025年12月CPI同比上涨2.7%，核心CPI上涨2.6%，均与前值持平。受美国联 邦政府此前长时间"停摆"影响，该数据对市场预测美联储未来政策路径的参考价值可能减弱。芝商所FedWatch显 示，市场预期美联储2026年1月按兵不动的概率高达95%。 期货行情与成交量： 2026-01-13，沪金主力合约开于1026.86元/克，收于1027.18元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动0.09%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于1028.82元/克，收于1031.00元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.37%。 2026-01-13，沪银主力合约开于20900.00元/千克，收于21004.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动0.28%。当日成交 量为1141819手， ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2026 01 14 年 月 日 宏观点评 美国 12 月通胀平淡，美联储主席提名出现波折 事件：北京时间 1 月 13 日 21:30，BLS 公布 2025 年 12 月 CPI 数据，美 国 12 月未季调 CPI 同比 2.7%；季调后环比 0.3%，均符合预期。 核心结论：美国 12 月 CPI 符合预期，核心 CPI 略低于预期，整体表现平 淡。CPI 公布后，美联储降息预期变化不大，目前市场依然预期 1 月和 3 月均不会降息、2026 全年降息 2 次。近期美联储新主席提名出现波折， 一方面是沃什和哈塞特的概率十分接近，另一方面是鲍威尔受到刑事指控 引发 2 名共和党参议员不满、并表示将阻止特朗普提名。继续提示：新主 席的最终提名时间、提名结果仍存在较大不确定性，在此期间可能引发市 场对降息预期的反复博弈。 1、美国 12 月 CPI 符合预期、核心 CPI 略低于预期，整体表现平淡。 >整体表现：美国 2025 年 12 月未季调 CPI 同比 2.7%，持平预期和前值， 相比 9 月连续 2 个月回落；核心 CPI 同比 2.6%，略低 ...

Group 1: US Stock Market - The US stock market experienced a decline in late trading, with the Dow Jones falling by 402.46 points, a decrease of 0.81%, closing at 49187.74 points; the Nasdaq dropped by 67.74 points, down 0.29%, at 23666.16 points; and the S&P 500 fell by 23.05 points, a decline of 0.33%, ending at 6954.22 points [3] - The decline in the US stock market is attributed to various factors, including a slightly weaker labor market reflected in the December employment report and a focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7% in December, meeting expectations [3] - Economic uncertainty regarding inflation and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction has led to a fierce debate among market participants, contributing to the stock market's decline [4] Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced a correction after several days of gains, but UBS remains optimistic about the A-share outlook, citing three supporting factors: improved corporate earnings growth, attractive valuations, and continued inflow of domestic and foreign capital [6] - The market environment is expected to be more favorable in the first half of the year, with a focus on earnings realization in the second half; overall liquidity is anticipated to support upward valuation trends in the A-share market [6] - The technology sector is highlighted as a key focus area, with advancements in artificial intelligence and biopharmaceuticals expected to enhance the performance and valuation of related companies [6] Group 3: Precious Metals - Precious metal prices have been on the rise, with COMEX gold futures increasing by 1.29% to $4518.4 per ounce, marking a weekly gain of 4.34% [8] - Factors supporting the rise in precious metals include geopolitical risks, uncertainty in US policies, and ongoing improvements in global liquidity, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets [8] - Silver and other precious metals are also performing well, with both nominal and real prices of silver reaching historical highs; the ongoing improvement in global liquidity suggests that the upward trend in silver prices is far from over [8] Group 4: Commodity Market - The commodity market is experiencing price volatility, with copper prices surging by 22% within a month, nearing $14,000 per ton; Goldman Sachs has raised its price target for the first half of the year but warns of potential corrections in the second quarter [10] - The fluctuations in copper prices reflect changes in market supply and demand, driven by US stockpiling and the AI boom, while supply is affected by mining and transportation factors [10] - The current period is characterized by cyclical fluctuations in the correlation between commodity indices, with expectations of continued divergence in the first half of 2026, potentially shifting towards convergence later in the year [10]

但对于金价未来走势，不少机构仍然看多黄金，全球央行黄金需求整体依然相对稳健。CBSNEWS发文称，美国劳工 统计局周二早些时候发布的最新通胀报告显示，通胀仍然顽固，尽管相比于近年来的水平有所下降；通胀的停滞往往 会促使投资者涌入贵金属市场，以抵御通胀带来的侵蚀性影响，从而推高价格，尽管需要一些时间，最新的通胀数据 才会在整个经济中产生影响，但当这种情况发生时，不要对贵金属的上涨感到惊讶。 来源：环球网 近日多家A股金矿类上市公司发布了业绩预告，受金价大幅上涨影响，相关上市公司预计2025年业绩普遍大幅增长。 具体来看，紫金矿业预计2025年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为510亿元至520亿元，同比增长59%至62%；赤峰 黄金则预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为30亿元到32亿元，同比增长70%到81%。 北京时间1月14日凌晨，国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX黄金期货跌0.44%报4594.40美元/盎司，COMEX白银 期货涨2.08%报86.86美元/盎司。有分析人士称，尽管地缘政治紧张、央行增持黄金及市场不确定性为金价提供支撑， 但美联储官员释放暂不降息信号，压制了黄金的降息预期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [2][4]. - Silver: Reached a new high [2][4]. - Copper: A significant increase in LME cancelled warrants supports the price [2][7]. - Zinc: Volatility at high levels has increased [2][10]. - Lead: A decrease in overseas inventories supports the price [2][14]. - Tin: Broke through the historical high [2][17]. - Aluminum: Operating strongly [2][21]. - Alumina: Continuing to bottom - out [2][21]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Platinum: Trading within a range [2][25]. - Palladium: Trading in a narrow range [2][25]. - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, with wide - range fluctuations [2][29]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel has raised the oscillation center, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [2][30]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Gold - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,027.18 with a daily increase of 0.09%, and the night - session closing price was 1031.00 with a 0.14% increase. Comex Gold 2602 closed at 4594.40 with a - 0.31% decrease [4]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 197,421, a decrease of 40,906 from the previous day, and the position was 103,633, a decrease of 12,817 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 98,283 kg, an increase of 630 kg from the previous day [4]. - **News**: US December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased. The University of Michigan's January consumer confidence index reached a four - month high. Trump threatened Iran and was reported to have ordered a plan to "invade" Greenland [4][6]. Silver - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 21030 with a 0.39% increase, and the night - session closing price was 21943.00 with a 4.14% increase [4]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 136,532, a decrease of 29,618 from the previous day, and the position was 72,853, a decrease of 7,320 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 630,066 kg, a decrease of 19577 kg from the previous day [4]. Copper - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 102,290 with a - 1.45% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 103540 with a 1.22% increase. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13,157 with a - 0.12% decrease [7]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 668,804, an increase of 105,862 from the previous day, and the position was 690,536, a decrease of 4,076 [7]. - **Inventory and Cancelled Warrants**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 122,127, an increase of 5,505 from the previous day. The LME Copper inventory was 141,550, an increase of 4,325, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 36.61%, an increase of 20.53% [7]. - **News**: US December core CPI was only 2.6% year - on - year, at a four - year low. The global copper demand is expected to increase significantly by 2040, driven by the AI and defense sectors [7][9]. Zinc - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24280 with a 0.43% increase, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3213.5 with a 2.05% increase [10]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 188273, an increase of 90333 from the previous day, and the position was 111306, an increase of 9828 [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc was 33613 tons, a decrease of 1728 tons from the previous day, and the LME Zinc inventory was 106900 tons, an increase of 100 tons [10]. - **News**: US core inflation slowed down in December, and the market has low expectations for a rate cut this month [10][11]. Lead - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17360 with a - 0.66% decrease, and the LME Lead 3M electronic disk closed at 2053 with a 0.32% increase [14]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 41289, an increase of 5747 from the previous day, and the position was 64233, an increase of 698 [14]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead was 21013 tons, an increase of 4524 tons from the previous day, and the LME Lead inventory was 218925 tons, a decrease of 2525 tons [14]. - **News**: US December core CPI was at a four - year low, and Trump cancelled talks with Iranian officials [14][15]. Tin - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 379,330 with a 0.64% increase, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 49,145 with a 1.96% increase [18]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 470,223, an increase of 187,240 from the previous day, and the position was 42,853, a decrease of 7,782 [18]. - **Inventory and Cancelled Warrants**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,245, a decrease of 88 from the previous day, and the LME Tin inventory was 5,930, an increase of 25. The cancelled warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [18]. - **News**: Global central banks are drafting a statement to support Fed Chairman Powell. Baichuan Intelligence plans to launch an IPO in 2027 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Aluminum** - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24375, a decrease of 275 from the previous day, and the LME Aluminum 3M closed at 299 [21]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 825553, an increase of 170542 from the previous day, and the position was 370981, a decrease of 8100 [21]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 14.90 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 49.40 million tons [21]. - **Alumina** - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2780, a decrease of 144 from the previous day [21]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 964869, an increase of 97851 from the previous day, and the position was 553364, an increase of 123459 [21]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Price**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23165, a decrease of 175 from the previous day [21]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract was 27925, an increase of 10659 from the previous day, and the position was 22099, an increase of 109 [21]. - **News**: After Powell was sued, the New York Fed President warned against undermining the central bank's independence. CME changed the margin setting method for precious metals contracts [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Platinum** - **Price**: The closing price of the platinum futures 2606 was 605.05 with a - 2.85% decrease [25]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum was 32,647 kg, a decrease of 7,907 from the previous day, and the position was 38.440 kg, a decrease of 861 [25]. - **Inventory**: The NYMEX platinum inventory was 624,345 ounces, a decrease of 409 from the previous day [25]. - **Palladium** - **Price**: The closing price of the palladium futures 2606 was 483.25 with a - 4.33% decrease [25]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Palladium was 22,262 kg, a decrease of 1,916 from the previous day, and the position was 15.204 kg, a decrease of 59 [25]. - **Inventory**: The NYMEX palladium inventory was 210,908 ounces, a decrease of 398 from the previous day [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel** - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 138,450, a decrease of 5,750 from the previous day [30]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 1,277,690, an increase of 194,488 from the previous day [30]. - **Industry Chain**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 981, an increase of 9 from the previous day [30]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Price**: The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 13,790, a decrease of 65 from the previous day [30]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the stainless steel main contract was 347,554, a decrease of 9,430 from the previous day [30]. - **News**: The Indonesian government has restricted the issuance of new smelting licenses, and plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities [30][31].

Group 1 - The US dollar index is trading around 99.237, while spot silver opened at $86.90/oz and is currently around $88.69/oz, indicating a rise in silver prices due to increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1] - On January 13, the dollar index rose by 0.29% to close at 99.186, while spot silver increased by 2.06% to $86.91/oz, reaching a historical high of $89.12 before retreating [1] - The upcoming economic data to watch includes the US November retail sales month-on-month and the November PPI data [1] Group 2 - As of January 13, silver ETF holdings decreased by 26.79 tons to 16,321.16 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The US CPI growth rate remained stable in December, with core CPI slightly below expectations, leading to comments from Trump advocating for significant interest rate cuts by Powell [2] - The ADP weekly employment report indicates that private sector employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week over the four weeks ending December 20, 2025 [3] Group 3 - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange plans to launch a 100-ounce silver futures contract on February 9 [5] - The silver market experienced fluctuations, opening at $85.362, hitting a low of $83.348, and then rising to a high of $89.124 before closing at $86.891 [6]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 14 日 铂：区间整理 钯：窄幅震荡 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 605. 05 | | -2. 85% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 599. 38 | | -2. 21% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2338. 00 | | -0. 99% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2331. 20 | | -0.76% | | | | 锂金期货2606 | 483. 25 | | -4. 33% | | | | 人民币现货纪金 | 447.00 | | 0. 00% | | | 价格 | 纽约肥主连(前日) | 1.887.00 | | -1.28% | | | | 伦敦现货锂金(前日) | 1.831.35 | | -1.06% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and gives corresponding trend intensities and trading suggestions for each commodity [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and foreign gold futures and spot have different performances, and investors have almost erased their bets on a January rate cut. The trend intensity is 1 [7][9] - **Silver**: It has reached a new high. The prices of domestic and foreign silver futures and spot have increased, and the trend intensity is 1 [7] - **Platinum**: It is in range consolidation. The prices of platinum - related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [28][30] - **Palladium**: It has a narrow - range fluctuation. The prices of palladium - related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [28][30] Base Metals - **Copper**: The large increase in LME cancelled warrants supports the price. Although the prices of domestic and foreign copper futures have declined, the cancelled warrant ratio has increased significantly. The trend intensity is 1 [10][13] - **Zinc**: The high - level volatility has increased. The prices of domestic and foreign zinc futures have increased, and the trend intensity is 1 [14][17] - **Lead**: The reduction of overseas inventory supports the price. The prices of domestic and foreign lead futures have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [18][19] - **Tin**: It has broken through the historical high. The prices of domestic and foreign tin futures and spot have increased significantly, and the trend intensity is 1 [21][23] - **Aluminum**: It is in a strong - running state. The prices of domestic aluminum futures and related products have different performances, and the trend intensity is 1 [25][26] - **Alumina**: It continues to explore the bottom. The prices of domestic alumina futures and related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [25][26] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The prices of domestic cast aluminum alloy futures and related products have different performances, and the trend intensity is 1 [25][26] - **Nickel**: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, and it runs in a wide - range fluctuation. The prices of domestic nickel futures and related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [32][37] - **Stainless Steel**: The increase in nickel - iron raises the oscillation center of gravity, and the market bets on Indonesian policies. The prices of domestic stainless - steel futures and related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [33][37] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It has a strong - side oscillation, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. The prices of domestic carbonate - lithium futures and related products have increased, and the trend intensity is 0 [38][40] - **Industrial Silicon**: The downstream production has been cut, and the demand has decreased marginally. The prices of domestic industrial - silicon futures and related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [41][44] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the factory's quotation. The prices of domestic polysilicon futures and related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [42][44] - **Iron Ore**: The valuation is relatively high, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing up. The prices of domestic iron - ore futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is - 1 [45] - **Rebar**: It oscillates repeatedly. The prices of domestic rebar futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [47][51] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: It oscillates repeatedly. The prices of domestic hot - rolled - coil futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [47][51] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: It has a wide - range oscillation. The prices of domestic silicon - ferrosilicon futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [52][55] - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: It has a wide - range oscillation. The prices of domestic manganese - ferrosilicon futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [52][55] - **Coke**: It oscillates at a high level. The prices of domestic coke futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [56][57] - **Coking Coal**: It oscillates at a high level. The prices of domestic coking - coal futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [56][57] - **Steam Coal**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price has a narrow - range adjustment in the short term. The prices of domestic steam - coal futures and spot have different performances, and no trend intensity is mentioned [58] - **Log**: It oscillates repeatedly. The prices of domestic log futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [60][63] - **Para - Xylene**: The cost support is relatively strong. The prices of domestic para - xylene futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 1 [64][69] - **PTA**: The polyester plans to cut production, and attention should be paid to the implementation strength. The prices of domestic PTA futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 1 [64][69] - **MEG**: The downward valuation space is limited. The prices of domestic MEG futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 1 [64][69] - **Rubber**: It has a wide - range oscillation. The prices of domestic rubber futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [72][73] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It oscillates at a high level. The prices of domestic synthetic - rubber futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [76][78] - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products remains at a low level, and the spot price has increased, with the basis turning positive. The prices of domestic LLDPE futures and spot have increased, and the trend intensity is 0 [79][80] - **PP**: The downstream export rush supports propylene, and the cost support for PP is relatively strong. The prices of domestic PP futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [81][83] - **Caustic Soda**: It oscillates weakly. The prices of domestic caustic - soda futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is - 1 [84][87] - **Pulp**: It oscillates. The prices of domestic pulp futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [89][91] - **Glass**: The price of the raw sheet is stable. The prices of domestic glass futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [94][95] - **Methanol**: It oscillates with support. The prices of domestic methanol futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 1 [97][100] - **Urea**: It oscillates. The prices of domestic urea futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [101][104] - **Styrene**: It oscillates in the short term. The prices of domestic styrene futures and related products have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [105][108] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The prices of domestic soda - ash futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [109][111] - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight, and the geopolitical disturbance is strong. The prices of domestic LPG futures have increased, and the trend intensity is 0 [114][119] - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand has tightened, and the trend is strong. The prices of domestic propylene futures have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [115][119] - **PVC**: It oscillates weakly. The prices of domestic PVC futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is - 1 [123][124] - **Fuel Oil**: The geopolitical factor drives up the price, and there is still support below. The prices of domestic fuel - oil futures and spot have increased, and the trend intensity is 2 [126] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It mainly follows the upward trend, and the high - low - sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market has continued to rebound. The prices of domestic low - sulfur - fuel - oil futures and spot have increased, and the trend intensity is 2 [126] Agricultural Products - **Short - Fiber**: It oscillates strongly. The prices of domestic short - fiber futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [144][145] - **Bottle - Chip**: It oscillates strongly. The prices of domestic bottle - chip futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [144][145] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Short positions should be established at high prices. The prices of domestic offset - printing - paper futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is - 1 [147][148] - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates mainly in the short term. The prices of domestic pure - benzene futures and spot have increased, and the trend intensity is 0 [152][154] - **Palm Oil**: There are doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO is expected to narrow. The prices of domestic palm - oil futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [156][161] - **Soybean Oil**: The momentum of US soybeans is limited, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude oil. The prices of domestic soybean - oil futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [156][161] - **Soybean Meal**: It may follow US soybeans to digest the USDA report, and the market is weak. The prices of domestic soybean - meal futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is - 1 [162][164] - **Soybeans**: The spot price is stable and strong, and the market may oscillate. The prices of domestic soybean futures have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [162][164] - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot price. The prices of domestic corn futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [165][168] - **Sugar**: It runs weakly. The prices of domestic sugar futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is - 1 [169][172] - **Cotton**: It continues the adjustment trend. The prices of domestic cotton futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [174][177] - **Eggs**: The spot market is profitable, but the sentiment in the far - month contracts has weakened. The prices of domestic egg futures have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [180][181] - **Hogs**: There is a negative feedback in demand, and the release of supply is further postponed. The prices of domestic hog futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [183][185] - **Peanuts**: It oscillates. The prices of domestic peanut futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [188][191] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It runs weakly. The prices of domestic container - freight - index (European - line) futures have declined, and the trend intensity is - 1 [128][143]

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 398.21 points, a decrease of 0.80%, while the Nasdaq dropped by 0.1% and the S&P 500 declined by 0.19% [1] - Bank stocks experienced a widespread decline, with the KBW Bank Index down by 1.3% and JPMorgan Chase falling by 4.2% [1] - Technology stocks showed mixed results, with Intel rising over 7% to reach a nearly two-year high, while AMD increased by over 6%. However, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft all fell by more than 1% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped by 1.86%, with notable declines in Pinduoduo (over 5%), NIO and Xpeng (over 3%), and JD.com and Li Auto (over 1%) [1] Commodity Market - The FTSE China A50 Index futures closed down by 0.01% at 15,398 points [2] - Crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 2.90%, closing at 450.40 RMB per barrel [2] - Spot silver increased by 2.11%, reaching $86.92, with an intraday surge exceeding 4% [3] - Both New York and Brent crude oil prices rose by over 2% [5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with a core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 2.6% [8] - The U.S. government recorded a fiscal deficit of $145 billion in December 2025, a 67% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high for that month [8] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley noted that the December inflation data may contain "technical noise" due to the previous government shutdown, potentially affecting its predictive value for future Federal Reserve policy [8] - The market currently anticipates a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting [8] Federal Reserve Outlook - St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem indicated that inflation-related risks are diminishing, and he expects prices to align more closely with the Fed's target later this year [9] - Musalem stated that current monetary policy is appropriately positioned to address risks related to both price stability and employment [9] - Investors believe the likelihood of a rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting is low, but anticipate two rate cuts in 2026, each by 25 basis points [9] Venezuela Market Developments - Following significant political changes in Venezuela, the country's benchmark stock index surged over 130% since January 3, driven by expectations of economic recovery and U.S. government proposals for oil revitalization [9][10] - The U.S. White House has requested major oil companies to invest in Venezuela to restore its oil extraction infrastructure [10] - Teucrium, an ETF issuer, has applied to establish what is believed to be the first ETF focused on companies with exposure to Venezuela, indicating a potential opening for global capital into this previously closed market [10]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-14 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-14 所长 早读 特朗普继续给美联储及鲍威尔施压 观点分享： 美东时间 13 日，特朗普在离开白宫前往底特律发表经济演讲时对记者表示，鲍威尔 "超预算了几十亿美元，这不是无能就是腐败。我不知道是哪种，但显然他干得并不好。" 周二 CPI 公布后，特朗普称美国的通胀率非常低，这让行动迟缓的鲍威尔有机会"给我们带 来一次漂亮的大幅降息"。特朗普还表示，将在未来几周内宣布美联储主席人选，司法部调 查不会影响此时间表。鲍威尔被起诉后，纽约联储主席 John Williams 周一发表讲话，既为 鲍威尔辩护，又明确表示当前货币政策立场稳健，无需在短期内调整利率。北京时间 1 月 13 日，各国央行行长在一份联合声明中表示，"中央银行的独立性是我们为所服务的公民维护 价格、金融和经济稳定的基石。因此，在完全尊重法治和民主问责制的前提下，维护这种独 立性至关重要。"特朗普政府以司法手段施压央行、威胁鲍威尔不仅不得人心，恐怕也难以 取得效果。反之如果真的不幸看到鲍威尔或美联储屈服，那恐怕对美国乃至全球 ...