A股开盘，上证指数跌0.05%，深证成指跌0.08%，创业板指跌0.07%。 ...

NO.2华泰证券：公募改革落地有望驱动银行板块估值 华泰证券认为公募改革落地有望驱动银行板块估值。证监会最近发布《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方 案》，显著强化业绩比较基准约束力，预计未来基金配置或向业绩基准靠拢。2025年一季度主动权益深 度欠配银行，较沪深300偏离度近10pct，改革驱动下或有较大增配空间。近期一揽子政策落地，驱动经 济修复，此外，被动基金持续扩容，险资加速入市，增量资金持续流入可期，有望进一步支撑板块行 情。个股关注：1)2025年一季度公募低配的股份行；2)稳健大行仍有配置价值；3)质优个股。 NO.3华泰证券：看好暑运旺季航司兑现票价与盈利弹性 5月19日，华泰证券研报表示，往后展望，航空行业供给增速将维持较低水平，配合航司收益管理，全 年收益水平有望低开高走，叠加油价同比下降，航司盈利有望持续提升。看好暑运旺季航司兑现票价与 盈利弹性，推荐航空板块。 ｜2025年5月19日星期一｜ NO.1中国银河证券：长期来看A股市场有望展现出更强韧性 中国银河（601881）证券表示，长期来看，A股市场走势仍将体现"以我为主"的内涵，有望展现出更强 韧性。配置上，建议关注三大方向：第一，外部环 ...

本周（5月12日至16日），A股市场成交连续5日维持在万亿元规模以上。沪指累计上涨0.76%，深证成指上涨0.52%，创业板指上 涨1.38%，沪深300上涨1.12%。 | | A股主要股指行情表现- | | | --- | --- | --- | | 名标 | 年初至今 (%) | 本周涨跌幅 (%) | | 北证50 | 37.06 | 3.13 | | 中证1000 | 1.85 | -0.23 | | 科创50 | 0.64 | -1.10 | | 上证指数 | 0.47 | 0.76 | | 中证500 | -0.17 | -0.10 | | 沪深300 | -1.16 | 1.12 | | 深证成指 | -2.26 | 0.52 | | 创业板指 | -4.77 | 1.38 | 在31个申万一级行业中，本周有20个上涨。美容护理指数涨幅居首，为3.08%；非银金融、汽车、交通运输等指数紧随其后，周 涨幅均超过2%；跌幅居前的行业有国防军工和计算机，行业指数跌幅均在1%以上。 资金流向方面，本周4个行业获得主力资金净流入，分别为美容护理、医药生物、煤炭和建筑材料，净流入额依次为5.94亿元、 4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of the "Joint Statement of the China-U.S. Geneva Economic and Trade Talks" signals a positive development in China-U.S. economic relations, which may help reduce market risk aversion and alleviate potential pressures on domestic economic growth, leading to upward revisions in corporate profit expectations [1] Group 1: Market Implications - The current agreement is a phased outcome of China-U.S. negotiations, with future tariff policies remaining uncertain and subject to fluctuations [1] - The A-share market is expected to demonstrate resilience, reflecting a "self-reliant" approach in the long term [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Focus on three main directions for investment: 1. Defensive sectors with strong earnings certainty and stable dividend returns due to increased external uncertainties [1] 2. The "technology narrative" in the A-share market, with attention to subsequent industry trend catalysts [1] 3. Opportunities in the large consumption sector, supported by policies enhancing service consumption and the expansion and quality improvement of the "two new" policies, which may drive market recovery [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to show stronger resilience, reflecting a "self-centered" approach, with positive signals from the easing of Sino-US trade tensions [1] - The recent joint statement from the Sino-US Geneva economic and trade talks has alleviated potential pressures on domestic economic growth, leading to an upward revision of corporate profit expectations [1] - Investment recommendations include focusing on defensive dividend sectors, technology narratives, and consumer sectors supported by policy initiatives [1] Group 2 - After the release of short-term profit-taking pressure, the A-share market is anticipated to return to a trend of oscillation and upward movement [2] - The introduction of floating rate funds marks the practical phase of fee reform, with a recovery in real financing demand expected to be reflected in upcoming social financing data [2] - The issuance of special government bonds and the increase in central bank support for financial companies indicate that market downside risks are manageable [2] Group 3 - The index is expected to continue oscillating, with sector rotation likely to persist due to easing trade tensions and domestic demand expansion policies [3] - Short-term focus areas include export chains, self-sufficiency sectors, and consumer sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion, particularly in services [3] - High dividend sectors are projected to maintain investment value, with attention on banking, coal, public utilities, and transportation following recent monetary easing [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange is hosting the 2025 Global Investor Conference from May 19 to 20, showcasing the investment value of Chinese assets and the A-share market [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The conference will feature keynote speeches, roundtable discussions, and company roadshows, aimed at promoting high-level openness to the outside world [1] - This event has been held annually since 2020, serving as a bridge for communication and mutual learning between domestic and foreign markets [1] - This year's conference is unprecedented in scale, attracting over 400 domestic and foreign guests and involving more than 100 investment institutions [1] Group 2: Participation and Significance - Several CEOs, investment heads, and investment directors from foreign institutions will attend in person, marking the largest scale and highest specifications in the event's history [1] - The conference is taking place against the backdrop of a new phase in the revaluation of Chinese asset values, indicating significant interest from global investors [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent market trend where the A-share index has experienced a decline with reduced trading volume and outflow of main funds [1] - It highlights a technical analysis indicating a need for the index to pull back to the 60-period moving average after forming a double top divergence [1] - The analysis suggests that the market may see a short-term rebound on the following Monday, but this is expected to be temporary [2] Group 2 - The 60-minute structure analysis indicates that the Shenzhen Composite Index is following a similar pattern, with expectations of a pullback to the 60-period moving average [2] - The article emphasizes that any potential rebound on Monday should be viewed cautiously, as it may not provide a sustainable entry point for investors [2] - A more favorable market condition for sustained investment would arise only after observing two to three consecutive trading days of main funds bottom-fishing [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current market adjustment may present significant mainline opportunities once the adjustment phase concludes, with a cautious approach recommended during this period [2][3]. Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a decrease in trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing below its 5-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [2]. - The market structure shows a clear weakness in heavyweight stocks, while small and mid-cap stocks are showing signs of weak recovery [2][3]. - The trading volume for the day was 1.12 trillion, which is below the average of the past 5 and 10 days, suggesting a lack of momentum [2][4]. Technical Indicators - The Shanghai Composite Index has confirmed a downward trend by breaking below the low of the significant bullish candle from May 14, indicating a potential for further declines [2][3]. - The 60-minute chart shows a double death cross, indicating a need for technical recovery, with attention on the gaps below for potential upward movements [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed near its 10-day moving average, while the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market Index are also trading below their 5-day moving averages, reflecting overall market weakness [4][5]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to wait for the daily indicators to recover before making significant moves, as the current market conditions are complex and uncertain [5]. - Short-term traders may consider opportunities if the market shows signs of recovery near the gap levels, while more conservative investors should remain cautious [4][5].

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations with a general upward trend in individual stocks, while banks and liquor stocks are undergoing adjustments [1][3] - The trading volume has significantly decreased, indicating potential signs of a market peak [1] Investor Sentiment - There is a prevailing pessimism among investors, with many believing the market is in a continuous decline [1][7] - The current market sentiment suggests that a cautious approach is advisable, as trading with negative emotions can lead to further losses [1][7] Market Predictions - The expectation is for the market to rebound after a period of decline, with a potential rise to above 3500 points, which could improve investor sentiment [3] - The current market environment is characterized by a lack of significant upward movement, with large funds likely waiting for a more opportune moment to act [3][5] Sector Analysis - Key sectors such as real estate, securities, and liquor are highlighted as critical areas to watch, especially in light of recent favorable news that did not lead to expected price increases [5] - The market is currently seeing a significant divergence in performance among small and mid-cap stocks, particularly in technology-related sectors [3][5] Trading Dynamics - The market is expected to continue its oscillation, with a focus on patience and waiting for the right opportunities rather than engaging in short-term trading [5][7] - The current trading environment is not conducive to short-term speculative opportunities, as many stocks are experiencing temporary price increases without sustained momentum [5][7]

那么沪指就很容易跌破5天均线。从今天A股全天的走势来看，沪指小跌0.68%，收报3380点3400点，得 而复始，科创50指数跌超一个点，创业板指数跌近2%，从赚钱效应来看，今天仅有1000407家上涨，有 380056家下跌。昨天也是跌多涨少的，成交量萎缩至一点19万亿。技术指标上看，沪指60分钟级别已经 出现双死叉，有指标修复破5天均线的技术需求。综上所述，中间日线级别双金，可以判断是反弹末端 短线有震荡调整的技术需求。左侧结构下，我依然非常谨慎。我们看盘面，本周指数还可以，虽然说今 天跌了0.68%，但昨天上证指数可是涨了0.86%，但是赚钱效应一般，那这种行情就要非常小心，这个 位置日线级别指标只要修复，我就会讲波段行情。 日线级别指标不修复，我会一直谨慎下去。从技术面来看，60分钟级别，这个双死叉，很明显的双死差 有指标修复的技术需求。那指标修复过后，看一下120分钟级别，指标修复，那120分钟级别，60分钟级 别指标修复，那日线级别如果还是双金状态，我觉得还有波段向上的可能性，但是日线级别一旦有效双 死。Dear poof，这个平台就要注意形成套牢盘，那震荡结构就会延长，这是上证指数。那上证指数从 ...