步入2025年下半年，A股市场震荡上行，交投活跃度提升，投资者情绪随政策预期升温持续回暖。伴 随"十四五"规划进入收官之年，财政政策提效与产业转型升级协同推进，一系列尚未被市场充分定价的 政策红利正步入兑现阶段。接受采访的资深分析师认为，在"两新"政策扩围与"反内卷"产能出清的双轮 驱动下，下沉市场消费升级、银发经济产业链以及"专精特新"企业成为被低估的价值洼地。伴随四季度 中美降息共振预期强化，红利资产防御属性与科技成长板块弹性或将共同主导市场结构性机会，政策与 市场的动态博弈正步入关键阶段。（中国证券报） ...

Group 1: Market Overview and Policy Implications - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound with increased trading activity and improved investor sentiment as policy expectations rise, particularly as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its conclusion [1] - Analysts suggest that under the dual drivers of the expansion of "two new" policies and the "anti-involution" capacity clearance, the upgrading of consumption in lower-tier markets, the silver economy supply chain, and "specialized, refined, and innovative" enterprises are undervalued opportunities [1][9] - The current market strategy is to adopt a dual allocation of "dividend assets as a shield and new tracks as a spear," with dividend assets providing stability amid uncertainty and new tracks driven by policy support and technological innovation [9] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth - Fiscal policy in the first half of the year has been proactive, with increased spending intensity and a focus on urban renewal, human investment, and industrial upgrades [2][3] - The fiscal deficit has increased significantly, with government debt financing reaching 55.2% of the annual plan, indicating the critical role of fiscal policy in stabilizing consumption, investment, and the financial system [3] - The government is expected to introduce additional fiscal measures to support employment, businesses, and market stability, particularly in response to potential declines in tax revenue and land transfer income [3][4] Group 3: Consumer Market and Silver Economy - The introduction of policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods is expected to benefit lower-tier markets and the silver economy, creating significant market opportunities [5][6] - The "old-for-new" policy is anticipated to enhance consumer experiences in lower-tier markets, leading to improved logistics and after-sales services, thus fostering a better consumption environment [5] - The aging population is expected to drive demand in healthcare, elderly services, and related industries, with opportunities in medical devices, innovative drugs, and elder-friendly products [6] Group 4: Industry Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate capacity clearance in traditional industries, benefiting leading companies with strong technical capabilities and efficient production processes [7][8] - Leading enterprises are likely to gain market share and improve profitability as they navigate price pressures and competition, supported by favorable policy measures [7][8] - The competitive landscape may undergo significant changes as policies are implemented, with leading companies becoming primary beneficiaries of the policy dividends [7] Group 5: Investment Opportunities and Market Trends - The investment logic for core assets is shifting from "reassessing resilience" to "reassessing growth," with a focus on companies that demonstrate strong fundamentals and growth potential [10][11] - The anticipated U.S.-China interest rate cuts are expected to lower financing costs for the real economy, benefiting sectors such as real estate and technology, while also enhancing consumer demand [11] - The market is likely to see increased interest in high-dividend, stable cash flow sectors, such as banking and utilities, as investors seek refuge amid potential market volatility [11]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Outlook - China's fiscal policy has maintained a proactive stance in the first half of the year, with increased spending intensity and optimized expenditure structure, indicating significant operational space for the second half [2][3] - Key areas of focus for fiscal support include urban renewal, investment in human capital, and industrial upgrades, reflecting a systematic and forward-looking approach [2][3] - The broad fiscal revenue and expenditure gap has increased by at least 1.6 trillion yuan year-on-year, highlighting the critical role of fiscal policy in stabilizing consumption, investment, and the financial system [3] Group 2: Consumer Market and Policy Incentives - The introduction of policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods is expected to benefit the lower-tier markets and the silver economy, which are seen as undervalued opportunities [4][5] - The "old for new" policy is anticipated to enhance consumer upgrading in lower-tier markets, with significant potential for the home appliance market due to the aging of previous policies [5] - The aging population is expected to drive demand in healthcare, elderly services, and related industries, creating investment opportunities in medical devices, innovative drugs, and elder care services [6] Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The "anti-involution" policy is reshaping the industrial landscape by promoting the exit of inefficient capacity, with leading companies expected to benefit from improved profitability due to their competitive advantages [7] - The focus on "anti-involution" is not merely about capacity reduction but aims at optimizing market mechanisms for high-quality industrial development [7] - The investment logic for core assets in the A50 index is shifting from "reassessing resilience" to "reassessing growth," indicating a potential revaluation of these assets as the real estate cycle stabilizes [9] Group 4: Market Opportunities and Investment Strategies - The current market strategy involves a dual approach of "dividend assets as a shield" and "new tracks as a spear," with dividend assets providing stability amid uncertainty and new sectors driving structural opportunities [8] - The expectation of synchronized interest rate cuts in China and the U.S. is likely to lower financing costs for the real economy and attract foreign investment into the A-share technology growth sector [10] - The anticipated decline in financing costs may stimulate demand in the real estate sector and consumer goods, enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese exports [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the current economic conditions in China, focusing on various sectors such as electricity generation, industrial production, infrastructure, real estate, and consumer goods, indicating a mixed recovery with some areas showing growth while others are experiencing declines. Group 1: Electricity Generation and Industrial Production - As of July 24, the cumulative electricity generation from coal-fired power plants increased by 3.3% year-on-year, reaching a high for the year, influenced by high temperatures and increased air conditioning usage [1][5]. - The operating rates of upstream industrial raw materials are generally better than previous values, with the operating rate of blast furnaces increasing by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [6][7]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Construction - There has been a slight improvement in infrastructure physical workload, with the national cement shipment rate recorded at 39.9%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - However, the funding availability rate for construction sites remains a concern, with a national average of 58.7%, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.4 percentage points [8]. Group 3: Real Estate Market - Real estate sales continue to show weakness, with the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities down 18.3% year-on-year [11][12]. - The number of second-hand housing transactions in 82 cities decreased by 18.7% year-on-year, indicating a significant slowdown in the market [12]. Group 4: Consumer Goods and Retail - Retail sales of passenger cars grew by 9% year-on-year from July 1 to 27, a slowdown compared to the previous month's 15% growth [12][14]. - Sales growth for major home appliances remains relatively high, although there is a noted slowdown in the latter half of July [14]. Group 5: Export and Shipping - Container throughput at domestic ports increased by 5.6% year-on-year, indicating a slight recovery in export activities [16][17]. - The data shows a gradual normalization of exports to the U.S., with container shipping numbers showing a small positive increase compared to previous months [16][17].

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has outlined key tasks for the second half of 2025, focusing on stabilizing employment, expanding domestic demand, and promoting the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative [1][2] - The NDRC reported that China's economy has shown resilience and vitality, with positive performance in major economic indicators and effective risk prevention in key areas [1] - The NDRC plans to enhance investment and consumption, with over 300 billion yuan allocated for the third batch of "two new" construction projects in 2025 [1] Group 1 - The NDRC aims to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations while strengthening domestic circulation and optimizing external circulation [1] - The focus for the second half of the year includes nine key areas, such as stabilizing investment and promoting consumption [1] - The NDRC has issued a total of 800 billion yuan for "two new" construction projects this year, with all project lists now finalized [1] Group 2 - The NDRC, in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance, has allocated 69 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the consumption upgrade policy [2] - Plans are in place to issue an additional 69 billion yuan in special long-term bonds in October to continue supporting local consumption initiatives [2] - The NDRC emphasizes the need to eliminate "involution" competition and promote healthy development of the private economy through reforms in bidding and investment practices [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.77% and 1.62% respectively, with a total trading volume of 1,843.965 billion yuan [2][7] - In the Shenwan industry classification, steel, oil and petrochemicals, and media sectors led the gains, while electric equipment, computers, and automobiles lagged behind [2][7] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong decreased by 1.36%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 2.72% [2][7] - In the U.S. market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.38%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.12%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.15% [2][7] Important News - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October 2025, focusing on the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development [3][8] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, indicating that it is too early to predict a rate cut in September due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and inflation [3][8] Industry Performance Light Industry - The light industry sector's performance in the first half of 2025 was lackluster, with a pre-profit rate of 46%. As of July 28, 2025, 165 A-share companies in this sector had a disclosure rate of 33% [9] - 17% of light industry companies reported losses for the first half of 2025, with 37% of companies experiencing continuous losses [9] Paper Industry - The paper sector showed a higher pre-profit rate of 67%, while the packaging and printing sector's loss ratio decreased [10][11] - The paper industry is expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" initiative, which aims to eliminate backward production capacity and restore profitability [11] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector had a pre-profit rate of 51% for the first half of 2025, with 43 out of 107 A-share companies disclosing their performance [13][14] - The proportion of companies reporting losses increased from 28% to 35%, while the percentage of companies with profit growth decreased from 28% to 23% [13][14] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The agriculture sector showed an overall positive trend with a pre-profit rate of 69%, and the proportion of companies reporting profit growth increased significantly [17][18] - The animal husbandry and animal health sectors performed particularly well, with a notable reduction in the number of companies reporting continuous losses [17][18] Inverter Exports - In June 2025, China's inverter exports amounted to 6.576 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 10.23% and a year-on-year increase of 0.92% [19][21] - The Asian market maintained high growth, particularly in the Middle East, while the North American market showed signs of recovery [19][21][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the paper industry that can benefit from the "anti-involution" policy and have cost advantages [11] - In the textile sector, attention is drawn to companies with strong brand power and those likely to benefit from improved consumer demand [15] - The agriculture sector's leading companies, particularly in animal husbandry, are recommended for investment due to their improved profitability outlook [17]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued the third batch of 69 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds this year to support the consumption of old goods replacement [1][2] - Since 2025, 280 million people have applied for subsidies under the old goods replacement policy, leading to sales exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan [1] - Retail sales of major household appliances and related products have seen significant year-on-year growth, with increases of 30.7% for home appliances, 25.4% for audio-visual equipment, 24.1% for cultural and office supplies, and 22.9% for furniture [1] Group 2 - The NDRC plans to issue another 69 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds in October to continue supporting local implementation of the old goods replacement policy [2] - The NDRC, in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce, aims to ensure balanced and effective use of funds across regions and sectors [2] - Continuous improvement of policy implementation mechanisms is emphasized, including product quality and price regulation to prevent fraudulent practices [2]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% compared to the market index in the next six months [4][27]. Core Insights - The light industry performance forecast is subdued, with a pre-profit rate of 46%. As of July 28, 2025, 54 out of 165 A-share companies in the light industry have released performance forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 33%, ranking 6th among eight major consumption sectors [1][9][24]. - The paper-making sector shows a higher pre-profit rate of 67%, while the packaging and printing, home goods, and entertainment goods sectors have pre-profit rates below 50% [2][14][24]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the number of companies in the light industry experiencing losses, with 17% of companies forecasting their first loss in the first half of 2025, and 37% of companies continuing to report losses for two consecutive years [1][10][24]. Summary by Sections Light Industry Performance - The light industry has a pre-profit rate of 46%, ranking 8th among consumption sectors. The number of companies forecasting profit growth has decreased compared to the previous year, with only 17% expecting an increase and 0% expecting slight increases [1][10][24]. Paper-making Sector - The paper-making sector has a pre-profit rate of 67%, indicating stable profitability. The disclosure rate for this sector is 39%, with a notable performance differentiation among companies [2][14][15]. - In the first half of 2025, the paper-making sector saw a mix of performance forecasts, with 1 company expecting profit growth, 3 expecting a decrease, and 2 companies turning losses into profits [2][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on opportunities related to the "anti-involution" initiative, which aims to eliminate excessive competition and promote reasonable pricing based on actual costs. This is expected to help restore profitability in the paper-making sector [3][24][25]. - Additionally, the report recommends paying attention to opportunities arising from the "two new" policies, which aim to stimulate investment and consumption through government support for equipment upgrades and consumer goods replacement [3][24][25].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report 2025/7/29 [1] - Data Source: Third - party - Researcher: Liao Hongbin - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F30825507 - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0020723 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - On Tuesday, Treasury bond spot yields weakened collectively, and Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank continued net injections, and the weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.56%. Domestically, the decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed in June, but weak PPI remained a drag. Industrial growth rose slightly, fixed - asset investment and social retail sales declined slightly, and the unemployment rate remained stable. Socially - financed growth exceeded expectations, credit demand improved marginally, and deposit activation increased. Overseas, the US July S&P Global Composite PMI rebounded unexpectedly, the labor market was stable, and global trade tensions eased. Affected by policy themes, risk appetite increased, and the bond market was under pressure. If relevant policies are further introduced, the bond market may continue to face pressure in the short - term, and interest - rate bonds may be adjusted. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short - term and allocate after stabilization [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Disk - **Closing Prices**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.25%, 0.17%, 0.06%, and 0.78% respectively [2] - **Trading Volumes**: T and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 94 and 5157 respectively, while TF and TS main contract trading volumes decreased by 1398 and 677 respectively [2] 2. Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, and TS2512 - 2509 spreads decreased by 0.09, 0.02, and 0.01 respectively; T09 - TL09, TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, and TS09 - TF09 spreads increased by 0.64, 0.09, 0.21, and 0.12 respectively [2] 3. Futures Positions - **Main Contract Positions**: T and TS main contract positions decreased by 625 and 2929 respectively, while TF main contract positions decreased by 32, and TL main contract positions increased by 488 [2] - **Top 20 Long and Short Positions**: T top 20 long positions decreased by 379, and short positions increased by 1659; TF top 20 long positions increased by 1156, and short positions increased by 309; TS top 20 long positions increased by 149, and short positions decreased by 2562; TL top 20 long and short positions increased by 3633 and 3786 respectively [2] 4. CTD (Cheapest to Deliver) - The net prices of various CTD bonds, such as 220010.IB, 250007.IB, etc., all decreased [2] 5. Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of active Treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 1.75bp, 2.05bp, 2.50bp, 2.25bp, and 1.75bp respectively [2] 6. Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, Shibor overnight, and 7 - day interest rates all decreased [2] 7. Industry News - The national child - rearing subsidy system implementation plan was announced on July 28. From January 1, 2025, a subsidy of 3600 yuan per child per year will be provided for children under 3 years old [2] - In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. The profits of new - kinetic - energy industries represented by the equipment industry grew rapidly. From January to June, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size were 3436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The profits of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased 13.7 times year - on - year, and the profits of the mining industry decreased by 30.3% year - on - year [2] 8. Key Data to Focus On - July 29, 22:00, US July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index - July 30, 20:15, US July ADP Employment (in ten thousand people) [3]

Macro and Strategy Research - In the first half of 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 4.3% in June [2][3] - The industrial added value increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, supported by increased working days and the delayed effect of tariff suspension on exports [3][4] - The operating income grew by 2.5% year-on-year, while the profit margin decreased to 5.15%, down 4.8% year-on-year, indicating pressure on enterprise profits [3][4] Fiscal Data Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 115,566 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 3.4% to 141,271 billion yuan [6][9] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 2.4% to 19,442 billion yuan, but expenditure surged by 30% to 46,273 billion yuan, indicating a strong push in fiscal spending [6][10] - The overall fiscal expenditure (public fiscal expenditure + government fund expenditure) increased by 8.9% year-on-year, reflecting a robust fiscal support environment [10] Fund Research - All major indices in the equity market were raised, with public fund scale surpassing 34 trillion yuan, indicating a positive market sentiment [12][14] - The week saw a net inflow of 19.22 billion yuan into the ETF market, with significant inflows into cross-border ETFs, while stock ETFs experienced net outflows [14][15] - The issuance of new funds decreased, with 23 new funds launched, raising 276.61 billion yuan, reflecting a slight contraction in market activity [14][15] Industry Research - The paper industry is experiencing a rebound driven by "anti-involution" sentiments, with a 5.07% increase in the paper sector from July 1 to 25, 2025 [16][20] - The third batch of national subsidies amounting to 69 billion yuan has been allocated to support the consumption of old goods, which is expected to stabilize furniture product sales [20] - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the market, while the textile and apparel sector lagged behind, indicating sector-specific performance variations [16][20]