期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 31 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏强 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 谨慎持多，轻仓过节 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 触底返弹 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚动空 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints The report presents market analyses and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the supply and demand, market performance, and price trends of each commodity, and provides corresponding trading suggestions based on these factors. Summary by Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market rebounded sharply; influenced by silver's decline and Fed's rate - cut decision; supply remains tight. Suggest waiting for volatility to decline [2]. - **Aluminum**: Price closed slightly lower; supply increased, demand decreased. Expected to oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **Alumina**: Price unchanged; supply decreased due to environmental control, demand remained high. Price to stay weak [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Price rose; supply increased, demand from some industries decreased. Expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Price dropped; supply increased, demand from some sectors decreased, inventory decreased in December. Expected to oscillate at a high level [2][3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Price rose; supply stable, demand from downstream sectors decreased. Suggest waiting for price to decline to enter the market [3]. - **Tin**: Price rebounded; supply tight, influenced by silver and Fed's decision. Suggest waiting for buying opportunities [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Price dropped; inventory decreased, demand weak, supply decreased. Suggest waiting and trying to short the 2605 contract [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Price dropped; supply increased, demand may decrease. Suggest waiting, reference range 765 - 795 [4][5]. - **Coking Coal**: Price rose; supply and demand weak, futures overvalued. Suggest waiting and trying to short the 09 contract [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans oscillate weakly; domestic market is near - strong and far - weak. Core depends on South American output [5]. - **Corn**: Price oscillated; supply - demand contradiction is small. Futures price expected to oscillate [5]. - **Edible Oils**: Market is in oscillation and differentiation. Pay attention to production and bio - diesel policies [5]. - **Cotton**: Suggest buying at low prices, reference range 14300 - 14800 yuan/ton [5]. - **Eggs**: Price oscillated weakly; supply - demand contradiction is small. Futures price expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: Price rebounded; supply - demand pressure eased. Futures price expected to oscillate strongly [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Price oscillated; supply pressure increased but slowed, demand decreased. Suggest buying far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [7]. - **PVC**: Price dropped; supply - demand is weak, macro situation improved. Suggest reverse arbitrage [7]. - **PTA**: PX supply is balanced and loose, PTA supply is balanced and tight. Suggest mid - term long - position for PX and focus on 05 contract for PTA [7][8]. - **Glass**: Price rose; supply - demand expected to improve, undervalued. Suggest waiting [8]. - **PP**: Price oscillated; supply increased, demand decreased. Suggest buying far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [8]. - **MEG**: Price situation; supply is high, inventory increased. Suggest short - position at high prices [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Price oscillated; supply pressure is large, demand is in the off - season. Suggest short - position at high prices [8]. - **Styrene**: Price oscillated; supply - demand is weak in the short - term. Suggest long - position for styrene or reverse arbitrage for pure benzene in the second quarter [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Price rose; supply is large, demand is weak. Suggest short - position [9].

Core Viewpoint - A viral rumor about a "systemically important" bank facing a silver futures market collapse and forced liquidation has circulated widely, but lacks credible evidence to support its claims [1][10]. Group 1: Rumor Details - The rumor originated on social media, claiming that a major bank failed to meet margin requirements and was forcibly liquidated by the futures exchange [1]. - It was reported that the Federal Reserve injected $34 billion into the banking system overnight, following a previous injection of $17 billion [2]. - The bank in question is described as a significant player in the precious metals derivatives market, allegedly breaching risk limits and exhausting credit lines [2]. Group 2: Evidence and Analysis - The Federal Reserve's actual operations included a $17.25 billion injection on December 26, 2025, and a $25.9 billion operation on the following Monday, which are within normal liquidity pressures for year-end [3][6]. - The claim of a $34 billion injection remains unverified, as the New York Fed has not issued any statements supporting this figure [3][6]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) did raise margin requirements for silver trading, but there is no evidence of a major clearing member failing to meet these requirements [7][9]. Group 3: Market Context - The silver market is experiencing high volatility and increased margin requirements, which can lead to forced deleveraging without the need for a bank collapse [15]. - The narrative of a major bank's failure resonates with past events, particularly involving JPMorgan Chase, which has a history of manipulating silver prices [11][12]. - Current data indicates that major U.S. banks, including JPMorgan, are net long in the silver futures market, contrary to the rumors of them being in a precarious position [12].

Morning session notice 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘主力合约期货 BZ2603 价格下跌 62 元至 5470 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价 格 5360 元/吨（环比+35），山东地区现货价格 5206 元/吨（环比+39）。持仓方面， 多头持仓增加 652 手至 1.72 万手，空头持仓增加 1863 至 2.2 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，11 月国内纯苯产量 191.8 万吨，同比-0.93%。12 月计划内检修偏多。 10 月纯苯进口量 49.67 万吨，环比+14.1%。市场消息：华东某炼厂计划 1 月对 1000 万吨常减压以及一套重整检修，影响纯苯产能 60 万吨。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | 纯苯 | 震荡 | 2、库存方面，截至 2025 年 12 月 22 日，中国纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：29.3 万 吨，较上期库存 28 万吨累库 1.3 万吨，环比上升 4.6 ...

联系方式：0371-65617380 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 30 日星期二 Morning session notice 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘2603合约涨幅0.54%，收于2249元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示，昨日深加工企业收购价涨跌互现。东北地区深加工企 | | | | | 业收购价2127元/吨，较上周五涨9元/吨；华北地区深加工企业收购价2266元/吨， | | | | | 较上周五跌9元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，昨日港口价格明显上涨。锦州港收购价2265-22 | | | | | 80元/吨，较上周五涨25元/吨；蛇口港成交价2410元/吨，较上周五涨20元/吨。 | | | ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 30 日星期二 Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘主力合约期货 BZ2603 价格下跌 62 元至 5470 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价 格 5360 元/吨（环比+35），山东地区现货价格 5206 元/吨（环比+39）。持仓方面， 多头持仓增加 652 手至 1.72 万手，空头持仓增加 1863 至 2.2 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，11 月国内纯苯产量 191.8 万吨，同比-0.93%。12 月计划内检修偏多。 10 月纯苯进口量 49.67 万吨，环比+14.1%。市场消息：华东某炼厂计划 1 月对 1000 万吨常减压以及一套重整检修，影响纯苯产能 60 万吨。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | 纯苯 | 震荡 | 2、库存方面，截 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡整理 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周一持仓量减仓 3632 手，成交量相比上一 交易日略微缩量，成交量 1051146 手。日内震荡运行，最低 3116，最高 3150， 收于 3130 元/吨，上涨 22 元/吨，涨幅 0.71%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3300 元/吨，相 比上一交易日上涨 10 元。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 170 元/吨。期货贴水较大，一定程度上继续支撑 期货价格。 二、基本面数据 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 库存端：库存连续去化，截止 12 月 25 日当周，总库存周环比下降 18.29 万吨至 434.25 万吨，连续 8 周去化，但同比仍高 34.51 万吨，其中社 会库存294.19万吨，周环比下降18.81万吨，去库有所放缓，钢厂库存140.06 万吨，微增 0.52 万吨，社库去库显示当下需求韧性。但本周库存去化速度 放缓，整体库存压力仍可控。 ■宏观面：中央经济会议 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：反弹乏力，关注上方压力 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素低开高走，日内收平。市场氛围一般，企业开启降价吸单，山 东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1620-1690 元/吨，多较 上周五下调 10-20 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端。基本面来看，目前日产 20 万 吨，前期停车企业有停车，1 月份西南地区气头装置依然有停车减产计划，但 1 月份也有大量前期停车装置复产，难有新低日产数据。复合肥工厂本期开工负 荷继续下滑，环比下降 1.62 个百分点，其中主要受华北地区环保限产的影响， 开工率多有下降，但东北及西南等地区相对稳定，上周开会后重点磷肥生产企 业与下游主要采购企业达成共识，后续磷肥保供稳价为主，后续预计冬储市场 稳定运行，环保限制解除后，开工或有回升，原料采购端有韧性。本期库存去 化幅度增大，主要系近期上下游的装置均有部分减产，目前同步去年偏低 45.61 万吨。尿素今日拉涨乏力，上方压力明显，目前尚未到农需旺季，淡季 备肥为主，价格难有大幅涨跌，短期小幅震荡为主，若无利多政策，预计震荡 回调，短期偏弱，中长期偏强。 【 ...

基本面来看，矿端国产矿供应平稳，氧化铝企业采购施压，部分地区价格微跌。进口矿方面，几内亚前 期停采矿企复采，新建、国营矿企陆续开采，后续供应预期增加，氧化铝市场将维持过剩。需求端，氧 化铝开工仍处于偏高水平，供应充足，下游电解铝开工虽小幅提升，但需求增量有限。仓单库存16.1万 吨，周内减少1.9万吨。现货市场方面，元旦假期前，持货商有清库存压力，市场货源供应宽松。下游 电解铝企业存在节前备货补货需求，市场交投较为兴旺，在阶段性需求释放带动下市场交投活跃，今日 全天交易量继续增加。 整体来看，政策面利多提振氧化铝市场情绪，且期价处于成本下方、价值洼地，低位做多意愿集中。但 基本面过剩现状及预期未改，短时多为情绪反弹，后续上涨受限，建议谨慎追涨，关注供应端政策及减 产情况。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 长江有色网12月29日讯，今日氧化铝承压震荡，主力月2605合约走势承压，盘中维持区间震荡运行姿 态；截止当日15：00收盘，氧化铝主力月2605合约报2751元，收涨3元，涨幅0.11%；15个合约累计成 交1702712手，比前 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For p-xylene options approaching expiration, consider buying options for directional trading [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Data 3.1.1 Futures Market Statistics - Various agricultural product futures showed different closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, corn (c2603) closed at 2222 with a price increase of 33, trading volume of 729,771 (up 468,659), and open interest of 1,014,722 (up 17,278) [3] 3.1.2 Options Market Statistics - Different agricultural product options had varying trading volumes, PCR (Put-Call Ratio) changes, open interest, and PCR changes. For instance, corn options' main contract had a trading volume of 132,095 (up 77,780), PCR of 0.3494 (up 0.0136), open interest of 265,650 (up 3,485), and PCR of 0.4557 (up 0.026) [5] 3.1.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - Each agricultural product option had specific remaining trading days, at-the-money volatility, volatility changes, 60-day quantiles, HV10, HV20, skew, and skew changes. For example, corn (c2603) had 37 remaining trading days, at-the-money volatility of 10.12% (up 0.46%), 60-day quantile of 65.0%, HV10 of 9.63%, HV20 of 9.18%, skew of 16.16% (down 2.49%), and 60-day skew quantile of 83.33% [6] 3.2 Energy and Chemical Data 3.2.1 Futures Market Statistics - Energy and chemical futures had different closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, PTA (ta2605) closed at 5280 with a price increase of 128, trading volume of 1,936,584 (up 324,031), and open interest of 1,478,489 (up 68,925) [7] 3.2.2 Options Market Statistics - Options in the energy and chemical sector had varying trading volumes, PCR changes, open interest, and PCR changes. For instance, PTA options' main contract had a trading volume of 735,602 (up 220,883), PCR of 0.4889 (up 0.0608), open interest of 254,635 (up 16,834), and PCR of 1.0724 (up 0.0587) [8] 3.2.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - Each energy and chemical option had specific remaining trading days, at-the-money volatility, volatility changes, 60-day quantiles, HV10, HV20, skew, and skew changes. For example, PTA (ta2602) had 10 remaining trading days, at-the-money volatility of 35.88% (up 8.33%), 60-day quantile of 100.0%, HV10 of 18.83%, HV20 of 19.32%, skew of 32.59% (up 5.71%), and 60-day skew quantile of 96.67% [10] 3.3 Black Data 3.3.1 Futures Market Statistics - Black futures showed different closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, iron ore (i2605) closed at 783.0 with a price increase of 4.5, trading volume of 291,118 (up 145,309), and open interest of 580,731 (up 13,627) [11] 3.3.2 Options Market Statistics - Black options had varying trading volumes, PCR changes, open interest, and PCR changes. For instance, iron ore options' main contract had a trading volume of 103,210 (up 63,177), PCR of 1.1848 (down 0.3322), open interest of 122,845 (up 5,018), and PCR of 1.5185 (down 0.1206) [11] 3.3.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - Each black option had specific remaining trading days, at-the-money volatility, volatility changes, 60-day quantiles, HV10, HV20, skew, and skew changes. For example, iron ore (i2602) had 15 remaining trading days, at-the-money volatility of 16.56% (up 1.65%), 60-day quantile of 38.33%, HV10 of 10.43%, HV20 of 12.52%, skew of 1.47% (up 4.45%), and 60-day skew quantile of 100.0% [12] 3.4 Metal Data 3.4.1 Futures Market Statistics - Metal futures had different closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, gold (au2602) closed at 1016.3 with a price increase of 7.54, trading volume of 224,588 (up 4,452), and open interest of 180,712 (down 1,467) [13] 3.4.2 Options Market Statistics - Metal options showed varying trading volumes, PCR changes, open interest, and PCR changes. For instance, gold options' main contract had a trading volume of 79,266 (up 22,923), PCR of 0.2866 (down 0.0513), open interest of 88,080 (up 5,003), and PCR of 0.5676 (up 0.026) [14] 3.4.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - Each metal option had specific remaining trading days, at-the-money volatility, volatility changes, 60-day quantiles, HV10, HV20, skew, and skew changes. For example, gold (au2602) had 19 remaining trading days, at-the-money volatility of 25.99% (up 3.46%), 60-day quantile of 85.0%, HV10 of 15.28%, HV20 of 13.04%, skew of 44.39% (up 7.65%), and 60-day skew quantile of 100.0% [15]