Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticizes the Federal Reserve's current interest rates, claiming they are too high and urging for a reduction to alleviate refinancing costs for the government [2][3]. Group 1: Trump's Influence on Monetary Policy - Trump asserts that the current interest rates are "at least 3 percentage points too high," leading to an additional annual cost of $360 billion for refinancing [2]. - He emphasizes that there is "no inflation" and that businesses are "pouring into America," pushing for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [2]. - The proposal of appointing a "shadow chairman" before Powell's term ends raises concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence and credibility [3][5]. Group 2: Implications for the Next Fed Chair - The next Fed chair may face skepticism regarding their integrity and potential compromises made for nomination, especially if they are perceived as being aligned with Trump's interest rate reduction agenda [5][6]. - Trump's push for a "shadow chairman" could undermine Powell's authority and complicate the decision-making process within the Federal Reserve [6][7]. - The market's reaction to potential early nominations and the uncertainty surrounding monetary policy could lead to confusion and volatility [7][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Financial markets typically dislike uncertainty, particularly in sensitive areas like monetary policy, which could lead to adverse reactions if Trump's proposals are implemented [6][8]. - The upcoming FOMC meeting minutes are expected to provide further insights into the Federal Reserve's stance, with expectations of a potential rate cut in September [8].

Core Viewpoint - Metro Supply Chain's application for a Hong Kong IPO has become invalid, marking the third failed attempt, leading to increased uncertainty regarding its listing prospects [1][2][4]. Company Overview - Metro Supply Chain, originally a German brand, opened its first store in Shanghai in 1996, focusing on B2B operations with a membership and cash-and-carry model [2]. - In October 2019, Metro China was acquired by Wumart Group, which integrated it into its operations [2]. Financial Performance - From 2021 to 2023, Metro Supply Chain reported revenues of RMB 27.82 billion, RMB 27.10 billion, and RMB 24.86 billion, with net profits of RMB 0.33 billion, a loss of RMB 0.47 billion, and a profit of RMB 0.25 billion respectively [6]. - In the first seven months of 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 14.82 billion, a year-on-year decline of 0.96%, with a net loss of RMB 41 million, a reduction of 54.19% compared to the previous period [6]. Business Segments - The main business segments of Metro Supply Chain include retail distribution solutions, food service and distribution solutions, welfare gift solutions, and wholesale [5]. - The retail distribution solutions segment is heavily reliant on Wumart Group, which accounted for over 60% of the company's revenue in recent years [9][11]. Client Dependency - In 2022, 2023, and the first seven months of 2024, revenue from Wumart Group was RMB 16.89 billion, RMB 15.40 billion, and RMB 9.11 billion, representing 62.3%, 62.0%, and 61.4% of total revenue respectively [9]. - The company's dependency on Wumart has raised concerns about its operational sustainability, especially as Wumart's store count decreased by approximately 15% [11][12]. Profitability Challenges - The gross margin for the retail distribution solutions segment was only 3.8% in the first seven months of 2024, compared to 18.7% for food service and distribution solutions [12]. - The overall gross margin for Metro Supply Chain was reported at 9.7% [12]. Future Outlook - Metro Supply Chain aims to reduce its reliance on Wumart by expanding its client base, having recently added two independent third-party retail clients in Hunan and Hubei [11]. - Despite efforts to diversify, revenue from other clients remains minimal, contributing only RMB 2.3 million in the first seven months of 2024 [11].

两位名叫"凯文"的共和党人，目前正成为角逐下任美联储主席的最大热门。 据素有"新美联储通讯社"之称的Nick Timiraos援引知情人士透露，这两位"凯文"分别是：现 任美国国家经济顾问委员会主任凯文·哈塞特和前美联储理事凯文·沃什。 其中，之前呼声还并不算高的哈塞特，如今正逐渐成为美联储下任主席的有力竞争者。他的崛 起甚至已经开始威胁到了凯文·沃什的地位。 沃什曾是该职位的早期热门人选，自从八年前特朗普未选择他而选择鲍威尔以来，沃什一直在 暗暗谋求此位。不过，一些与总统关系密切的人士担心，不属于特朗普核心圈子的沃什，可能 不会轻易支持降息。 Timiraos对此撰文形容称，瑞正在发生的事情似乎具有典型的特朗普风格：让两个雄心勃勃的 男人在一场高风险竞赛中争夺他的认可，这与特朗普曾在真人秀节目《学徒》中推崇的董事会 博弈如出一辙…… 注：红线代表哈塞特当选概率 哈塞特正异军突起？ 据知情人士透露，哈塞特在6月份已至少两次与特朗普会面讨论美联储职位的问题。这些讨论 标志着哈塞特的转变，他之前曾告诉盟友自己对此不感兴趣，但现在却表示如果被邀请，他会 接受这份工作。 现年63岁的哈塞特是一位书卷气十足的博士经济学 ...

不过，多名行业人士和专家学者在接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时表示，深入剖析案件细节与法律逻辑后能够发现， 所谓该案"击穿"家族信托系误读。 案件始末：刑事犯罪牵出的信托执行争议 这场争议源于一场刑事判决与巨额退赔。 21世纪经济报道记者 郭聪聪 北京报道 近日，南通市崇川区人民法院的一份执行裁定书在金融界掀起波澜。该裁定书显示，法院直接扣划被执行人崔某名下 价值4143万元的"家族信托基金"用于执行退赔。 这一消息受到行业关注后，部分市场人士将其解读为"家族信托被击穿"，进而引发了业内对信托资产保护功能的广泛 讨论，也让部分公众对家族信托的资产保护功能产生了猜疑。 法院裁决书显示，被执行人崔某因行贿罪和合同诈骗罪被判处有期徒刑十四年，并处罚金80万元，同时需向华润医药 商业集团有限公司退赔七千余万元。 2023年10月，案件进入执行阶段，法院不仅扣划了崔某的多个银行账户五百余万元的存款，更对其"委托第三方保 理"的四千余万元"家族信托基金"进行了直接扣划。 刑事裁定书截图 图示来源：中国裁判文书网 这笔超过4000万元的"家族信托基金"成为本次执行中的关键财产，法院直接扣划的操作也成为了行业争议焦点。裁定 书 ...

Group 1 - The competition for the next Federal Reserve Chair is intensifying, with Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh as the main contenders [1][2] - Hassett's momentum is rising, having met with President Trump multiple times, while Warsh faces skepticism due to his earlier popularity and "hawkish" stance [2][4] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is also rumored to be interested in the Fed Chair position, with suggestions of him potentially holding both roles [2][9] Group 2 - Hassett, a seasoned economist with a strong academic background, has shifted his stance to align more closely with Trump's views, becoming a vocal critic of current Fed Chair Powell [3][4][5] - Warsh, with a high-profile financial background, is attempting to reshape his "hawkish" image and has proposed aggressive rate cuts in collaboration with Mnuchin [6][7] - Mnuchin's dual role as an advisor and potential candidate adds complexity to the selection process, with his comments possibly exacerbating divisions within the Fed [8][9] Group 3 - Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell has fueled the search for a new Fed Chair, emphasizing the need for rapid interest rate cuts to support economic growth [10][11] - The expectation for the next Chair to prioritize rate cuts is clearer than during Trump's first term, raising concerns about the potential impact on Fed independence and inflation expectations [11]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Impact - The dollar index experienced its worst start to a year since 1973, with a decline of 10.8% by July 1, 2025, dropping below the 97 mark to a low of 96.36 [2] - The decline in the dollar is attributed to uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to a withdrawal of investments from U.S. assets [2][3] - The performance of the dollar has shown a clear divergence, with traditional safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc strengthening, while the euro gained approximately 14% against the dollar since the beginning of the year [4][5] Group 2: U.S. Tariff Policies and Market Reactions - The "exceptionalism" narrative regarding the U.S. economy has reversed since Trump's tariff policies were implemented, leading to a decline in both U.S. stocks and bonds as investors shifted their focus away from U.S. assets [3][4] - The U.S. government has faced challenges in negotiating trade agreements, with only limited agreements reached with the UK and Vietnam, while negotiations with Japan and the EU remain slow and contentious [4][5] - As the deadline for tariff negotiations approaches, market volatility is expected to increase, with potential further adjustments to the dollar if the U.S. maintains a strong stance [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence and Economic Outlook - Trump's repeated criticisms of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and calls for interest rate cuts have raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, impacting investor confidence in the U.S. economy [6][8] - Despite pressures, the U.S. economy has shown resilience, with a stable unemployment rate of 4.1% and job growth exceeding expectations, complicating the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts [15][16] - The Fed's cautious stance on interest rate cuts reflects ongoing concerns about inflation and labor market conditions, with Powell indicating that any decisions will depend on forthcoming economic data [7][9] Group 4: U.S. Debt Concerns - The U.S. federal debt has reached $36.2 trillion, with public debt accounting for nearly 80%, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. government debt amid rising interest rates [12][13] - The recent tax reform is projected to increase the federal deficit by an additional $2.4 trillion to $3.3 trillion over the next decade, exacerbating existing debt concerns [12][13] - The combination of high debt levels and rising interest costs could undermine the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency, leading to a potential shift in investment flows towards other currencies like the euro [13][17]

据了解，特朗普在周二一次内阁会议上发言时称鲍威尔"糟糕透顶"，并告诉记者们，如果有关他在美联 储总部翻修问题上欺骗国会的指控被证实，那将是其迅速下台的最核心理由。"那么他应该立即辞 职。"特朗普表示，"我们应该找一个会降低利率的人来接替他。" 随后在社交媒体的一则帖子中，特朗普再度施压鲍威尔立即降息，他指责这位美联储主席"几个月来像 个孩子一样为不存在的通货膨胀率抱怨，并拒绝做正确的事情"。"降低利率，鲍威尔——现在是时候 了!"特朗普写道。 在特朗普内阁会议发表上述言论后，美联储发言人拒绝发表评论。 智通财经APP获悉，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，如果一位美国政府官员提出的有关美联储主席杰罗 姆·鲍威尔误导国会议员的指控属实，鲍威尔应"立即辞职"，同时加大了他对这位美联储负责人的个人 攻击，理由是其长期维持不变的利率政策不适合当前美国经济。 尽管长期以来的传统是美国政府官员避免对利率决策发表评论——这一传统在特朗普任期中屡屡被打 破，普尔特并非近来唯一公开批评鲍威尔的政府官员。 特朗普多次猛烈抨击鲍威尔今年维持利率不变的决定，上个月还表示他会选择一位愿意降息的美联储主 席继任者。鲍威尔的主席任期将于2026 ...

Core Viewpoint - The future trend of the US dollar index is likely to be a downward fluctuation, which may lead to a stable or rising trend in the RMB to USD exchange rate, benefiting China's cross-border capital flow and the internationalization of the RMB [2][11]. Group 1: Historical Analysis of the US Dollar Index - Since 1971, the US dollar index has experienced three long cycles of decline followed by rise, with significant percentage changes in each cycle [2][5]. - The first cycle saw a decline from 120.5 to 82.1 (31.9% drop) and a rise to 164.7 (100.6% increase) [2]. - The second cycle had a decline from 164.7 to 78.3 (52.5% drop) and a rise to 120.9 (54.4% increase) [2]. - The third cycle experienced a decline from 120.9 to 71.3 (41.0% drop) and a rise to 114.1 (60.0% increase) [2]. Group 2: Current Dollar Index Trends - From September 2022 to June 2025, the dollar index is projected to decline from 114.1 to 96.9, a decrease of 15.1% [4]. - The end of the previous Federal Reserve interest rate hike cycle and the beginning of a rate cut cycle in September 2024 suggest a new long-term downward trend for the dollar index [4]. Group 3: Characteristics of Dollar Index Cycles - The highest and lowest points of the dollar index in the three cycles show a gradual downward trend, indicating a weakening of the US economic advantage relative to other developed countries [5]. - The duration of the cycles has been increasing, with the downward phases lasting around 7-8 years and the upward phases extending significantly [5]. - The relationship between the dollar index and interest rates has changed, with recent trends showing a lower correlation between the two [6]. Group 4: Future Predictions for the Dollar Index - The dollar index is expected to continue a downward trend for an extended period, potentially lasting another 6-7 years [10]. - The lowest point of the current downward cycle may fall below the previous cycle's low of 71.3, but it is unlikely to drop below 80 due to issues in other developed economies [10]. - The correlation between the dollar index and US interest rates may remain low, impacting the RMB to USD exchange rate positively [11].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - A significant increase in pessimism regarding the global economic outlook has been observed among central banks, with a shift from expectations of a soft landing to a belief that stagflation is the most likely scenario [2][3] - Concerns over U.S. policy uncertainty have intensified, with 74% of respondents indicating that the potential impact of the Trump administration's trade and international alliance policies has overtaken geopolitical issues as the primary risk [2] Group 2: U.S. Dollar and Reserve Currency Status - Despite 80% of respondents predicting that the U.S. dollar will remain the world's reserve currency, there is a notable trend towards diversification, with the euro and renminbi gaining attention [4] - Approximately 29% of central banks plan to reduce their investments in U.S. assets in the near future, reflecting a gradual decline in the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [3][4] Group 3: Gold as a Preferred Asset - Gold continues to be a primary target for global central banks, with 52% planning to increase their gold holdings in the coming year, and 67% believing it will be the best-performing asset class by the end of the decade [5][6] - Since the end of 2022, gold prices have surged over 100%, leading to a significant acceleration in gold purchases by central banks, particularly after the freezing of Russian foreign exchange reserves [6][7] Group 4: Concerns Over U.S. Political Environment - Two-thirds of central bank reserve managers express concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, fearing that political interference may undermine its ability to set monetary policy effectively [3] - The political environment in the U.S. is seen as a barrier to investment in dollar assets, with 70% of central banks indicating that it has hindered their investment decisions, a figure that has more than doubled from the previous year [7]

证券代码：605268 证券简称：王力安防 公告编号：2025-054 王力安防科技股份有限公司 关于变更会计师事务所的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ? 拟聘任的会计师事务所名称：致同会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙）（以 下简称"致同"） （一）机构信息 名称：致同会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙） 统一社会信用代码：91110105592343655N 类型：特殊普通合伙企业 注册地址：北京市朝阳区建国门外大街 22 号赛特广场五层 首席合伙人：李惠琦 成立日期：1981 年（工商登记日期：2011 年 12 月 22 日） ? 原聘任的会计师事务所名称：天健会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙）（以 下简称"天健"） ? 变更会计师事务所的简要原因及前任会计师的异议情况：鉴于原聘任的 天健已连续多年为公司提供审计服务，根据《国有企业、上市公司选聘会计师事 务所管理办法》（财会〔2023〕4 号）的相关要求，为进一步确保审计工作的独 立性和客观性，并综合考虑公司业务发展和整体审计需要，公司拟聘任致同为 行 ...