Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials have differing views on monetary policy, leading traders to reduce bets on further easing after stronger-than-expected economic data [1][2] - The potential government shutdown starting October 1 could delay the release of key economic data, including the closely watched non-farm payroll report [2][5] - The market is pricing in an approximately 80% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's meeting on October 28-29, but more weak data is needed to support the view of a cooling labor market [2][3] Group 2 - The 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.2%, up from a five-month low of just below 4% on September 17, following a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed [3][4] - Recent reports showing a decline in initial jobless claims and robust second-quarter economic growth have led traders to slightly reduce expectations for further easing [3][4] - The market anticipates that the upcoming government data will show an increase of 50,000 non-farm jobs in September, a rebound from an average of less than 30,000 in the previous three months [3] Group 3 - Fed officials are facing conflicting risks of a slowing labor market and rising inflation, with some advocating for more rate cuts while others express concerns about inflation driven by tariffs [4] - The U.S. Treasury options market shows buyers betting that the 10-year yield will drop to 4% or lower by the end of November, while short positions in U.S. Treasuries are increasing [4] - The importance of data not affected by the government shutdown, such as the ADP private employment report, has increased, with a strong employment report potentially influencing interest rate decisions [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term setbacks in interest - rate cut expectations won't change the Fed's medium - term easing pattern. The new Fed chair in 2026 is likely to implement significant monetary easing, which will impact the Fed's policy independence. The rise in precious metal prices reflects the dollar's credit and the Fed's monetary policy. Due to the resilience of US economic data, silver with stronger industrial attributes shows a more robust price performance [3]. - Considering the macro background and precious metal positions, the current strategy suggests buying on dips, especially paying attention to the upward potential of silver prices. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 818 - 850 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 10152 - 11500 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Price Changes**: Shanghai Gold rose 0.88% to 862.50 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 3.90% to 10936.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold fell 0.33% to 3796.50 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver fell 0.07% to 46.63 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.2%, and the US dollar index was 98.16 [2]. - **Position Changes**: The positions of precious metal futures and ETFs increased significantly. The positions of major foreign gold ETFs rose 3.79% to 2261.6 tons this month, and major foreign silver ETFs rose to 27945.91 tons. The total position of Shanghai Gold rose from 422,000 lots at the beginning of September to 454,000 lots, and that of COMEX Gold rose from 417,000 lots to 515,000 lots. The total position of Shanghai Silver rose from 865,000 lots to 912,000 lots, and that of COMEX Silver rose from 153,000 lots to 167,000 lots [2]. 3.2 Strategy View - **Price Data**: The closing prices, previous trading day prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of various precious metal products such as Au(T + D), London Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, etc. are provided. For example, Au(T + D) closed at 852.90 yuan/gram, up 0.11% from the previous day [4]. - **Investment Strategy**: Based on the macro background and precious metal positions, it is recommended to buy on dips, especially focusing on the rise of silver prices. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver main contracts are given [4]. 3.3 Key Data Summary - **Gold**: For COMEX Gold on September 26, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 3789.80 dollars/ounce, up 0.25%; the trading volume was 206,100 lots, down 19.14%; the position was 528,800 lots, up 2.43%; the inventory was 1242 tons, up 0.06%. Similar data for other gold - related products are also presented [7]. - **Silver**: For COMEX Silver on September 26, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 46.37 dollars/ounce, up 1.97%; the position was 165,800 lots, up 1.75%; the inventory was 16496 tons, up 0.08%. Similar data for other silver - related products are also provided [7]. 3.4 Charts and Data Sources - Multiple charts are presented, including the relationship between COMEX Gold price and the US dollar index, the relationship between COMEX Gold price and real interest rate, the price and trading volume of Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver, the near - far month structure of COMEX Gold and Silver, etc. The data sources are mainly WIND and the research center of Wukuang Futures [9][13][20]. 3.5 Internal - External Price Difference Statistics - **Gold**: On September 26, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference for gold was - 9.15 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was - 16.76 dollars/ounce [50]. - **Silver**: On September 26, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference for silver was 0.06 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference data is also presented [50].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, in collaboration with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, have officially launched a cross-border bond repurchase business to support foreign institutions participating in the onshore bond market [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will introduce a new Renminbi business funding arrangement starting October 9, replacing the existing Renminbi trade financing liquidity arrangement and implementing several optimization measures [1] - The U.S. government funding is set to run out at midnight on September 30, raising concerns about a potential government shutdown if bipartisan negotiations fail [1] Group 2 - President Trump announced a new round of high tariffs on various imported products starting October 1, including a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and a 30% tariff on imported furniture [2] - The U.S. International Trade Commission ruled that corrosion-resistant steel products imported from several countries have harmed U.S. industries, leading to the issuance of anti-dumping and countervailing duty orders [2] - The Federal Reserve's Board member Bowman emphasized the need for rate cuts due to a "fragile" job market and inflation nearing the Fed's target [2] Group 3 - The Kansas City Fed President stated that the Fed may not need to lower interest rates again in the short term as inflation levels remain high [3] - The South Korean government plans to extend foreign exchange market trading hours to 24 hours to eliminate trading time restrictions for foreign investors [3] - The Bank of Indonesia is intervening in the financial market to stabilize the Indonesian Rupiah, which has fallen to record lows [3] Group 4 - The final consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for September dropped to 55.1, the lowest in four months, with one-year inflation expectations at 4.7% [4] - The core CPI in Tokyo, Japan, rose by 2.5% year-on-year in September, unchanged from August [4] Group 5 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.65% to 46,247.29 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also saw increases [4] - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.50% to $3,789.8 per ounce, and silver futures rose by 2.77% to $46.365 per ounce [4] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 1.43 basis points to 3.63%, while the 10-year yield rose by 1.16 basis points to 4.20% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to maintain its policy interest rate at around 0.5% for the fifth consecutive time, reflecting uncertainties in both domestic and international economic conditions, including the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan's economy and domestic political uncertainties [1][2] Monetary Policy Decisions - The BOJ plans to sell approximately 330 billion yen worth of ETFs and 5 billion yen worth of REITs annually, indicating a gradual reduction in monetary easing and a move towards normalizing monetary policy [1] - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged was not unanimous, with two members proposing an increase to 0.75% due to rising inflation risks, but this proposal was rejected by the majority [2] Economic Influences - The impact of U.S. tariffs is seen as a critical factor in determining Japan's interest rate decisions, as rising import prices could suppress consumer spending and economic growth [3] - The recent decline in U.S. labor market indicators suggests negative effects from U.S. government policies, which could lead to a recession in Japan as well [3] Inflation Trends - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, down from 3.1% the previous month, marking the first drop below 3% since November of the previous year [4] - The rise in food prices, driven by supply-side factors, remains a significant contributor to inflation, but analysts expect inflationary pressures to ease in the latter half of the year [4] Political Landscape - Japan's political situation is currently unstable, with the resignation of the current Prime Minister and the upcoming election for a new leader from within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party [4] - The new party leader may seek cooperation with opposition parties on monetary and fiscal policies, potentially challenging the independence of the BOJ [4]

Core Insights - The report suggests a long-term bullish outlook on gold, with recommendations to buy silver after significant pullbacks in gold prices, particularly when gold experiences a maximum drawdown of 15% or more [7] - The report emphasizes that the weakening of the US dollar's credit is a key premise for investing in silver, especially during periods of "overheating to stagflation" in the US asset allocation cycle [7][19] - Historical data from 2016 to 2025 indicates that a combined strategy of "gold + silver" has significantly outperformed both London gold and Shanghai gold, achieving higher annualized returns with only a slight increase in maximum drawdown [7][50] Investment Strategy - The report outlines a three-step strategy for trading gold, focusing on macroeconomic perspectives, asset allocation views, and short-term disturbances [10][12] - It highlights that the long-term trend of gold prices is influenced by the weakening of the US dollar's credit and inflation expectations, while stagflation provides a favorable environment for gold price increases [10][19] - The report provides a detailed framework for executing the "gold + silver" enhancement strategy, indicating specific conditions under which to buy or sell silver based on gold's price movements and economic indicators [44][50] Historical Performance - The report includes a review of silver trading opportunities from 2016 to 2025, demonstrating that silver tends to outperform gold during periods of economic recovery or when the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish stance [23][40] - It presents data showing that during various historical periods, silver has significantly outperformed gold under specific economic conditions, reinforcing the strategic importance of silver in a diversified precious metals portfolio [23][45] Conclusion - The report concludes that the "gold + silver" enhancement strategy is superior to a simple buy-and-hold approach for London gold or Shanghai gold, with higher annualized returns and improved risk-adjusted performance metrics [50][46]

高盛的分析显示，美国经济在多项关键指标上展现出强劲表现。 据高盛称，其美国宏观经济意外指数（US MAP surprise index）近期大幅飙升，本周的初请失业金人数 也令人鼓舞。该行全球投资研究部（GIR）预计，美国第三季度GDP环比年化增长率将达到2.6%的健康 水平。 高盛最新警告，一系列因素正显著增加美国经济"重新加速"的风险，将为2026年的货币政策路径带来截 然不同的前景和挑战。 9月28日，高盛分析师Cosimo Codacci-Pisanelli和Rikin Shah在最新报告中称，美国经济面临重新加速的 风险正在上升，这一预期建立在劳动力市场韧性、财政刺激预期以及宽松金融环境等多重利好因素基础 之上。 该行分析师认为，当前美国经济在多项指标上表现强劲，本周公布的首次申请失业救济人数数据令人鼓 舞，而高盛全球投资研究部门预计第三季度美国GDP增长率将达到健康的2.6%（环比年化率）。这为 明年上半年的增长提供了有力支撑。 报告称，这一经济重新加速的前景将对美联储货币政策路径产生重要影响，特别是在美联储选出新主席 人选的背景下。高盛指出，关键问题在于美联储是否会在经济健康运行时仍将利率降至中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market-A" for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating an expected return that will exceed the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [4]. Core Views - The copper market may enter a bull market phase due to significant production cuts at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine, disrupting the global supply-demand balance [1]. - Precious metals prices continue to rise, with silver breaking through historical highs, driven by geopolitical risks and monetary policy uncertainties [2]. - The G7 and EU are discussing setting a price floor for rare earths, which is expected to positively impact rare earth prices in the short term [1][10]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper prices have shown a week-on-week increase, with LME copper closing at $10,205 per ton (+2.1%) and SHFE copper at 82,470 CNY per ton (+3.3%) [3]. - Supply constraints are evident as Freeport announced a production cut of over 200,000 tons this year due to a landslide at the Grasberg mine [3]. - Demand remains stable, with copper rod and wire cable enterprises operating at 73.78% and 65.44% capacity, respectively [3]. - Social copper inventory as of September 19 is 140,100 tons, a decrease of 8,800 tons from the previous week [3]. Precious Metals - COMEX gold and silver closed at $3,756.8 and $46.1 per ounce, reflecting increases of 2.2% and 8.2% respectively [2]. - The U.S. core PCE price index rose by 0.2% in August, aligning with expectations, while geopolitical tensions have increased due to the U.S. Congress's actions and international recognition of Palestine [2]. Aluminum - LME aluminum closed at $2,649 per ton, down 1.0% from the previous week, while SHFE aluminum was at 20,755 CNY per ton, down 0.24% [4]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production cost is approximately 16,283 CNY per ton, with industry average profits expanding to around 4,487 CNY per ton [4]. Tin - SHFE tin futures closed at 273,600 CNY per ton, up 1.9% [9]. - Market attention is shifting back to fundamentals, with slow recovery in Myanmar and low inventory providing price support [9]. Strategic Metals - Rare earth prices have shown slight declines, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 562,500 CNY per ton and terbium oxide at 7,050,000 CNY per ton [10]. - The G7 and EU's consideration of a price floor for rare earths is expected to provide short-term support for prices [10].

在对话中，洪灏直言美联储降息是为了预防特朗普风险。在他看来，美联储从来没有真正意义上的独立过。 尽管在他看来，美国通胀的前景高于市场预期，但目前数据尚未反应通胀压力，此时是鲍威尔的喘息窗口，"在这个时候降息没有人会指责，所以我相信他 是想应付来自特朗普的压力"。 洪灏还提醒表示，再过几个月，当货币执行委员会成员中，"特朗普的人越来越多，共和党人越来越多，这个时候才是真正需要担心美联储货币政策选择的 时候"。 凤凰网财经讯 9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行。本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学界精 英，共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 莲华资产管理有限公司管理合伙人洪灏出席本次论坛。在论坛期间，他发表"相信牛市真的到来""每十年中国都会出现一波史诗级的牛市"等观点，引发热烈 讨论，同时也让人们好奇他的更多看法。主题发言后，他应邀与凤凰网财经进行更深入的对话。 近年来，伴随政治极化以及央行角色不断扩大，美联储维护其独立性的难度正在增加。来自特朗普的公开施压，打破了长期以来总统至少在表面上尊重美联 储独立性的传统。特朗普多次公开猛烈抨击美联储及其主席杰罗 ...

尽管美联储本月首次降息，特朗普仍对鲍威尔谨慎的货币政策表达强烈不满。他此前多次批评鲍威尔降息过于缓慢，并给其起 绰号"太迟鲍威尔"。鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于2026年5月结束。 特朗普又在社交平台喊话"开除"鲍威尔，或进一步引发市场对央行独立性的担忧。 当地时间周六（9月27日），美国总统特朗普在其社交平台Truth Social发布了一张卡通图片，画面显示他对美联储主席鲍威尔喊 出标志性的"你被解雇了！（You're fired）"，后者手持装有个人物品的纸箱。 这张图片显示他用手指着鲍威尔，背景是美联储的官方印章。据视觉分析，该图像为AI生成或数字插图。分析指出，特朗普这 一举动再次升级了其与美联储之间的公开冲突。 最高法院最近的判决表明，总统无权随意罢免美联储官员。鲍威尔此前多次强调，解雇他"不被法律允许"。 法律专家指出，解雇美联储主席在美国历史上史无前例，最高法院最近的判决显示总统无权随意罢免美联储官员。但经济学家 警告，提前解雇鲍威尔可能导致长期利率上升，市场担忧美联储独立性受损。 特朗普又威胁"开掉"鲍威尔 特朗普此前将鲍威尔称为"无能"和"太慢"，不断抨击美联储主席在降息问题上的犹豫态度。分 ...

Global Asset Price Performance - Gold prices continue to rise, with London gold increasing by 2% this week [2] - European and Japanese stock markets saw gains, while US stock markets declined, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq dropping by 0.9%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively [2] - Global bond yields generally increased, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising by 6 basis points [2] - Oil prices also saw an uptick, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices rising by 2.7% and 2.5% respectively [2] - The US dollar index strengthened by 0.6% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Disagreements among Federal Reserve officials are evident, with Powell indicating economic growth is slowing and employment risks are increasing, yet maintaining a neutral stance on future policy [4] - Concerns about inflation were raised by two FOMC members, while others advocated for quicker rate cuts [4] US Economic Dynamics - New home sales in the US surged by 20.5% month-on-month in August, marking the largest monthly increase since August 2022, attributed to lower mortgage rates and increased sales incentives from builders [9] - The second quarter GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, significantly higher than the initial estimate of 3% [9] - The PCE price index for August showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points to 2.7%, indicating stable inflation pressures [9] - A potential government shutdown looms if Congress fails to reach an agreement by September 30, with significant partisan disagreements complicating negotiations [10] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in September, while the services PMI rose to 51.4, indicating a mixed economic outlook [17] - Japan's manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.4, the lowest since March, while the services PMI remained robust at 53 [17]