Market Overview - On January 23, U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.58% at 49,098.71 points, the S&P 500 up 0.03% at 6,915.61 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.28% at 23,501.24 points. For the week, the Dow Jones fell 0.53%, the S&P 500 fell 0.35%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.06% [2] - European major indices also showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX up 0.18% at 24,900.71 points, France's CAC40 down 0.07% at 8,143.05 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.07% at 10,143.44 points. For the week, the DAX fell 1.57%, the CAC40 fell 1.4%, and the FTSE 100 fell 0.9% [2] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.26%, with notable movements in popular Chinese stocks: Tencent Music rose over 4%, Yamafin Sports rose over 3%, and New Oriental rose over 2% [3] Intel Performance - Intel's stock plummeted over 17% following a disappointing earnings forecast, with a post-market decline exceeding 1%. The company reported a full-year revenue of $52.9 billion for 2025, unchanged from the previous year, and a fourth-quarter revenue of $13.7 billion, with a 9% year-over-year growth in data center and AI business [5] - CEO Pat Gelsinger expressed confidence in the role of CPUs in the AI era and highlighted the launch of products based on Intel's most advanced semiconductor process technology, Intel 18A. The company aims to enhance supply to meet strong customer demand [5] - Intel expects first-quarter 2026 revenue to be between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with CFO David Zinsner noting that despite industry-wide supply shortages, the fourth-quarter revenue, gross margin, and earnings per share exceeded expectations [5] Gold Market - International gold prices reached a new high, with COMEX gold futures rising 1.42% to $4,983.10 per ounce, marking an 8.44% increase for the week. COMEX silver futures rose 7.15% to $103.26 per ounce, also reaching a historical peak with a weekly increase of 16.63% [7] - Analysts from Huaxi Securities noted that gold prices have been on a significant upward trend over the past three years, driven by expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy, geopolitical conflicts, and concerns over U.S. dollar credit. Central banks' continued gold purchases provide strong support for gold prices [7] - Shenwan Hongyuan's analysis suggests that the upward trend in gold prices is likely to continue, with short-term focus on geopolitical events that could affect market sentiment [7] Oil Market - The main U.S. oil contract rose 3.23% to $61.28 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 3.27%. The Brent oil contract increased by 3.17% to $65.35 per barrel, with a weekly rise of 2.94% [8] - According to Xinda Futures, the core issue in oil price trends revolves around the divergence between OPEC+ policy and expectations from authoritative institutions. OPEC+ maintains an optimistic outlook, anticipating a tightening market in 2026, while the IEA warns of significant oversupply [8] - Demand concerns persist, with the IEA indicating weak demand from major economies and low consumer confidence, despite marginal benefits from China's economic growth. The first quarter is traditionally a low-demand season, leading to significant inventory pressure [9]

转自：智通财经 当地时间周四（22日），美国总统特朗普表示，他已经完成了对下一任美联储主席候选人的所有面试， 并重申他心中已有了人选。 "我很快就会告诉你们。我有一个我认为非常合适的人选，但我不会透露是谁。他是一位备受尊敬、非 常有名的人，我认为他会做得非常好。"他周四告诉记者。 众所周知，最终入围"决赛圈"的有：前美联储理事凯文·沃什、现任理事克里斯托弗·沃勒、国家经济委 员会主席凯文·哈西特以及贝莱德固定收益主管里克·里德。 哈西特一度被视为领跑者，但特朗普后来表示，他可能更倾向于让哈西特继续担任白宫要职。他在前一 日采访中表示，最后一位接受采访的里德"令人印象深刻"，并对所有候选人都给予了高度评价。 鲍威尔将于2026年5月结束美联储主席任期。自特朗普去年上任以来，一直对鲍威尔持强烈批评态度， 多次抨击他降息速度太慢。 前一日，特朗普在达沃斯接受采访时，对目前还有多少候选人在考虑之列给出了模棱两可的信息。负责 遴选工作的财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，目前有四位候选人入围，特朗普可能会在本月底前宣布最终 人选。 "我们得看看会发生什么，"特朗普说："他总是太迟了，总是太迟了，尽管利率一直在下降。" 特朗普还 ...

Group 1 - The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data from the US aligns with market expectations, indicating no substantial impact on the current monetary policy framework [1] - The overall PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in November, with core PCE also at 2.8%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, consistent with market forecasts [1] - Energy prices have temporarily increased, pushing short-term inflation readings higher, while food prices remain stable, indicating a lack of substantial change in the inflation structure [1] Group 2 - The third quarter GDP final value shows an annualized growth rate of 4.4%, the fastest in nearly two years, with initial jobless claims remaining low, reinforcing the view that the economy has not significantly cooled [2] - There is a notable imbalance in growth dynamics, with high-income groups and large enterprises being the main support for consumption and investment, while middle and low-income households face more significant constraints [2] - Market pricing of the Federal Reserve's policy path is stabilizing, with investors generally accepting the view of maintaining high short-term interest rates while continuing to digest potential rate cut space in the medium term [2] Group 3 - Uncertainty in policy due to Trump's fluctuating statements on trade, fiscal issues, and central bank independence has become a variable that the market cannot ignore, increasing volatility and interest in non-dollar assets [3] - Recent volatility in the Japanese bond market has brought the "widow trade" back into focus, with discussions around yen financing arbitrage and global interest rate linkage risks [3] - The November PCE inflation data has not shaken the Federal Reserve's short-term policy anchor, with economic resilience and persistent inflation leading to a continued wait-and-see approach in monetary policy [3]

Group 1 - The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data shows a slight increase in inflation levels, but overall trends remain within market expectations, not significantly impacting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path [1] - The PCE price index for November rose by 2.8% year-on-year, with core PCE also recording a 2.8% increase, aligning with market expectations [1] - Despite a slowdown in personal income growth, consumer spending recorded a 0.5% month-on-month increase, indicating resilience in demand [1] Group 2 - The third quarter GDP final value indicates an annualized growth rate of 4.4%, the highest in nearly two years, while initial jobless claims remain low, reinforcing the view that the economy has not significantly cooled [2] - There is an uneven growth performance, with high-income groups and large enterprises being the main support for consumption and investment, while middle and low-income households face more significant adjustment challenges [2] - Market pricing of the Federal Reserve's policy path is stabilizing, with investors generally accepting the baseline assumption of a "high plateau" for short-term policy [2] Group 3 - Trump's fluctuating statements on trade policy, fiscal direction, and central bank independence have reintroduced policy uncertainty as a risk variable that needs reassessment [3] - The recent volatility in the Japanese bond market has brought the "widow trade" back into institutional focus, with yen financing arbitrage and global interest rate linkage risks becoming discussion points [3] - Overall, the November PCE inflation data has not shaken the Federal Reserve's short-term policy anchoring, with economic resilience and inflation persistence coexisting, keeping monetary policy in a wait-and-see mode [3]

Group 1: U.S. and Greenland Island Dispute - The U.S. President Trump expressed intentions to negotiate the purchase of Greenland, emphasizing its strategic importance to U.S. national security [3][8] - Trump criticized Denmark for its perceived ingratitude regarding Greenland and stated that no other country could ensure its security [3] - The international response included strong opposition from European leaders, particularly the UK, asserting that the future of Greenland should be determined by its people and Denmark [8] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - U.S. stock indices saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 418 points and the Nasdaq index increasing by over 1% [5] - Notable increases in Chinese concept stocks were observed, with Baidu rising by 7.12% and iQIYI by 7.03% [5][8] - The market reacted to Trump's comments, with gold prices initially dropping by $40 before stabilizing at $4849.49 per ounce [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Trump announced plans to nominate a new Federal Reserve Chair, indicating dissatisfaction with current Chair Powell's timing on interest rate adjustments [7] - Economists predict that the Federal Reserve will maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged during the January meeting, contrary to previous expectations of potential rate cuts [7] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased, with Trump criticizing its failure to lower rates and the Justice Department threatening investigations into the Fed [7]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Performance - Precious metals continue to rise, with silver experiencing a four-day increase, and Hunan Silver rising over 8% [1] - Gold prices reached a record high of $4,967.37 per ounce, while silver surpassed $96 per ounce, marking significant gains [3] - The China Securities Company suggests that continued interest rate cuts by major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, could support gold prices [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Historical patterns indicate that a substantial shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and a comprehensive improvement in the U.S. economy are critical signals for market direction [6] - The company recommends maintaining an overweight position in gold and Chinese stocks while considering increased commodity allocations to hedge against potential economic overheating [6] Group 3: Industrial Metals Outlook - Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions are expected to enhance the reliability of physical assets like industrial metals, leading to potential valuation increases [7] - Copper's long-term supply constraints are driven by insufficient capital expenditure and declining ore grades, which may lead to a structural shortage in the global copper market [10] - The aluminum market is also expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with domestic production facing constraints and positive demand factors emerging [10] Group 4: Performance of Non-Ferrous Mining Index - The non-ferrous mining ETF has shown a nearly 15% annualized growth over the past decade, reflecting strong price elasticity in response to rising metal prices [11] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry saw a 41.43% year-on-year increase in net profit, with a significant rise in the third quarter [11][12] - The non-ferrous mining index has outperformed other indices, with a one-year increase of 128.68%, indicating a strong correlation with commodity price cycles [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On January 22, 2026, most domestic commodity futures markets closed higher, with chemicals leading the gains [14]. - The US economy maintains a "slight to moderate" expansion, inflation continues to cool, and consumption shows a "K-shaped" characteristic [14]. - In 2025, China's consumer market scale exceeded 50 trillion yuan, with service retail sales growing faster. In 2026, consumption is expected to grow steadily [14]. - In the short term, risk assets may continue to adjust, but in the medium term, it is recommended to go long on stock indices, non - ferrous metals, gold, and silver [14]. Summary by Directory Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 22, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4719.4, down 0.26; the SSE 50 futures price was 3061.2, down 0.61; the CSI 500 futures price was 8400, up 0.25; the CSI 1000 futures price was 8292.6, up 0.56 [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures price was 102.408, down 0.02; the 5 - year was 105.835, down 0.04; the 10 - year was 108.15, down 0.04; the 30 - year was 112.17, down 0.03 [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 98.7693, up 0.23; the US dollar central parity rate was 6.9646, down 57 pips [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.4952%, up 0.04%; the 10 - year Chinese treasury bond yield was 1.8312%, down 0.14 bp; the 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.26%, down 4 bp [3]. Popular Industry Fluctuations - On January 22, 2026, industries such as national defense and military industry, steel, and petroleum and petrochemicals had relatively large daily increases, while industries such as food and beverage, non - bank finance, and banking had declines [6]. Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: On January 21, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $59.52, up 0.3%; ICE Brent crude was at $64.62, up 0.67%; NYMEX natural gas was at $3.891, up 25.39%; ICE UK natural gas was at $105.29, up 12.07% [9]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold was at $4769.1, up 3.78%; COMEX silver was at $94.46, up 6.69% [9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper was at $12810, up 0.44%; LME aluminum was at $3115, up 0.24%; LME zinc was at $3175, up 0.06% [9]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans were at $1053, down 0.45%; CBOT soybean oil was at $54.05, up 2.83%; CBOT corn was at $424, down 0.18% [9]. Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - On January 22, 2026, most domestic commodities rose. Chemicals, new energy materials, non - metal building materials, energy products, etc. all had increases, while precious metals had declines [14]. Macro Summary - **Today's Market**: Domestic commodity futures markets closed mostly higher, with chemicals leading the gains [14]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy maintains a "slight to moderate" expansion, inflation cools, and consumption shows a "K - shaped" characteristic. Attention should be paid to upcoming GDP and inflation data [14]. - **Domestic Macro**: In 2025, China's consumer market scale exceeded 50 trillion yuan, and in 2026, consumption is expected to grow steadily [14]. - **Asset Views**: The scenario of no interest rate cut in January is basically confirmed, and the first interest rate cut by the Fed within the year is expected to be postponed to June. Short - term risk assets may adjust, while in the medium - term, it is recommended to go long on certain assets [14]. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock markets continue to wait for the main line, and bond markets still have disturbing factors. The short - term judgments for stock index futures, index options, and treasury bond futures are oscillatory rise, oscillation, and oscillation respectively [15]. - **Precious Metals**: After oscillatory adjustment, they maintain an upward trend. Gold and silver are expected to rise oscillatory [15]. - **Shipping**: Pay attention to the resumption of voyages in the far - month. The short - term judgment for the container shipping European line is oscillation [15]. - **Black Building Materials**: Fundamentals are lackluster. Most varieties are expected to oscillate [15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Wait for the macro - situation to become clearer. Base metals are oscillating and consolidating. Some varieties are expected to rise oscillatory, while others are expected to oscillate [15]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The trade tension eases slightly, but the supply - demand pattern is still under pressure. Most varieties are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Agriculture**: Sentiment warms up but trends diverge. Some varieties are expected to rise oscillatory, while others are expected to oscillate or decline oscillatory [17].

Core Insights - The core PCE price index for November 2025 in the U.S. is reported at an annual rate of 2.8% and a monthly rate of 0.2%, both meeting expectations [2] - The PCE data indicates that inflation in the U.S. economy has not significantly rebounded, providing sufficient room for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance on monetary policy suggests that the interest rates are likely to remain unchanged in the January meeting [2] Monetary Policy Implications - Despite pressure from the U.S. government, Powell is determined to uphold the independence of the Federal Reserve, indicating that interest rates may remain stable until at least May when he is expected to step down [2] - The potential for sustained interest rates implies that negative pressures on the U.S. economy from interest rates will not be alleviated in the short term, complicating the maintenance of current economic growth [2] Economic Outlook - The Trump administration is expected to strive to maintain economic growth trends despite the pressures of the midterm elections, but this does not eliminate the negative pressures facing the U.S. economy [2] - Investors are advised to approach the situation with caution due to the possibility of unusual economic conditions arising [2]

11月份美国核心CPI年率为2.6%，低于9月份的3%。CPI和PCE虽然样本数据不完全相同，但都描述消费 者支出情况，共振性强。11月份核心CPI数据下降，意味着11月份PCE数据也有可能同步下降。基于 此，PCE最终公布值低于2.8%机构预期的可能性仍存。 ▲ATFX图 来源：市场资讯 1月22日，北京时间23：00，美国商务部将公布11月核心PCE指数年率，该数据本应在12月份发布，因 为政府停摆对统计工作的影响而延迟。 金融机构预期值2.8%，高于2%的温和通胀标准。10月份的PCE数据未发布，前值追溯至9月份的2.8%， 与预期值持平。 11月上旬，美国政府停摆尚未结束，当月数据采集受影响，数据准确性存疑。PCE本身对美联储的货币 政策有指导作用，但11月份的PCE可能会被市场忽略。除非数据发布值大超预期，不然对美元黄金的影 响可能偏弱。 ▲ATFX图 长周期看，PCE数据已经不再充满"惊喜"，而是平稳运行。2024年5月，核心PCE跌破3%，宣告"2"时代 的来临。一年多时间，数据一直围绕3%上下波动。11月份预期值2.8%，依旧处于3%附近，即便稍微偏 离预期，市场人士也不会感到意外。 行情方面 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged during the upcoming meeting, with a significant reduction in the likelihood of rate cuts this quarter, potentially delaying monetary easing until after Chairman Powell's term ends in May [1] - A survey of 100 economists indicated that all respondents expect the Fed to keep the benchmark rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75% during the January 27-28 meeting, with 58% predicting rates will remain unchanged throughout the first quarter [1] - This marks a notable shift from last month, where most economists anticipated at least one rate cut in March [1] Group 2 - According to a report by Shenwan Hongyuan, U.S. inflation may exhibit a "high then low" characteristic in 2026, influenced by tariff transmission and tax cuts, with potential core PCE year-on-year rates of 2.8%, 2.6%, and 2.5% depending on the tariff transmission rate [2] - The macroeconomic outlook for the first half of the year suggests resilient growth, stable employment, and peak inflation, leading the Fed to potentially pause rate cuts, while the second half may see a resumption of rate cuts as deflation begins [2] - Key economic data to watch includes the UK CBI retail sales balance, U.S. Q3 GDP final annualized rate, initial jobless claims, personal spending, and PCE price index for November [2] Group 3 - Gold prices surged to a new historical high, driven by heightened risk aversion due to trade tensions, although recent comments from President Trump eased some of these tensions, limiting further gains [3] - The current trading price for gold is around 4820, with resistance expected near 4870 and support at approximately 4770 [3] Group 4 - The USD/JPY pair experienced slight gains, trading around 158.70, supported by short covering and a rebound in the dollar index due to easing trade tensions, although concerns over potential Bank of Japan intervention limited upside [4] - Resistance is noted around 159.50, with support at approximately 158.00 [4] Group 5 - The USD/CAD pair rebounded slightly, trading at around 1.3820, supported by short covering and technical buying near the 1.3800 level, while rising oil prices constrained further gains [5] - Resistance is expected near 1.3900, with support around 1.3700 [5]