Gold Market - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% during the January meeting, with Chairman Powell emphasizing that the monetary policy does not have a predetermined path and will rely on data moving forward [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, are expected to support gold prices as President Trump warned of severe consequences for Iran's actions, while Iran's foreign minister stated that their armed forces are on high alert [2] - Analyst Chen Yu from Baillieau believes the current gold market sentiment is bullish, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and discussions about the next Federal Reserve chair [2] - Technically, the gold market shows strong upward momentum, with the 20-day and 62-day moving averages indicating a clear bullish trend, and a short-term focus on the support level around $5,500 [2] Oil Market - Geopolitical factors are critical in influencing oil prices, with Secretary of State Rubio indicating that the Trump administration is prepared to use military force to ensure cooperation from Venezuela's interim president [3] - Following unsuccessful discussions with Iran regarding its nuclear program, President Trump is considering significant military action against Iran, which could lead to volatility in oil prices [3] - Despite long-term oversupply pressures in the oil market, recent cold weather in North America has caused a sharp decline in U.S. production, while demand growth remains weak [3] - Technically, the oil market is currently in a strong upward trend, with the 20-day and 62-day moving averages forming a golden cross, suggesting potential for further price increases, with a focus on the support level around $63.73 [3] Dollar Index - The dollar index has shown weakness recently, influenced by President Trump's actions regarding Greenland and ongoing sales of U.S. debt by Europe, leading to a significant depreciation of the dollar [4] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain current interest rates and lack of a clear policy path has contributed to the dollar's decline, although Powell's comments on the next Fed chair's independence may help limit further depreciation [4] - Technically, the dollar index is currently under pressure, with recent trading showing a potential for a rebound, while short-term bearish sentiment remains dominant [4] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is currently experiencing a period of high-level consolidation, with previous corrections finding support at the 62-day moving average [5] - The index remains above the 62-day moving average, indicating potential for further upward movement, with a short-term focus on the support level around 53,104 [5] Copper Market - The copper market is showing strong performance, with prices expected to break out of recent consolidation patterns [6] - The market is currently above the 62-day moving average, indicating a bullish overall trend, with a short-term focus on the support level around $6.10 [6] Market Overview - Reports indicate that President Trump and Senate Minority Leader Schumer are moving towards a potential agreement to avoid a government shutdown [7] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that the independence of the Federal Reserve does not imply a lack of accountability, with a new Fed chair candidate expected to be announced soon [7] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand is expected to reach a new high by 2025, with central banks purchasing a net 230 tons of gold in Q4 [7] Upcoming Data/Events - Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 24 will be released at 21:30 [8] - U.S. factory orders for November will be reported at 23:00 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts is in line with market expectations, and the interest rate guidance reflects significant internal differences among officials. Powell emphasized that the current policy is not "significantly tight," and raising interest rates is not the basic assumption for anyone's next move. There is still a possibility of interest rate cuts this year, sending a dovish signal. The Fed is likely to open the window for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year due to the support of the short - term US economic fundamentals, the marginal mitigation of the downward risk in the employment market and the upward risk of inflation, and the better - than - expected economic resilience shown by retail sales data [1][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Decision - On the early morning of January 29, 2026, after three consecutive interest rate cuts since September 2025, the Fed suspended interest rate cuts as expected, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% - 3.75%, and the reserve balance rate and discount rate at 3.65% and 3.75% respectively. Since the start of the interest rate cut cycle in September 2024, the Fed has cut interest rates by a total of 175BP [1][3]. 3.2 Interest Rate Statement - The Fed's judgment on the economic outlook has improved compared to December, especially in the employment aspect. There are still differences among officials on interest rate cuts. Milan and Waller voted against the decision. Milan has voted against four times in a row, and Waller, as a potential candidate for the new Fed chairman, voted against and supported a 25BP interest rate cut. In terms of economic description, it changed from "expanding at a moderate pace" in December to "expanding at a robust pace." Regarding employment, the Fed said that "the unemployment rate has shown certain signs of stabilization." For inflation, the description changed from the trend judgment of "inflation has risen compared to the beginning of the year" in December to the absolute - level judgment of "inflation is still slightly high" [1][6][9]. 3.3 Labor Market - The downward risk of employment has been marginally alleviated, and the unemployment rate has tended to be stable. Since July 2025, the US unemployment rate has remained in the range of 4.3% - 4.5%, and the weekly initial jobless claims have not increased further. However, non - farm payrolls are still at a low level, and the scale of new jobs in the government and private sectors is relatively limited. The supply and demand sides of the employment market have slowed down, but the risk of a significant weakening has decreased significantly, reducing the need for short - term interest rate cuts and supporting the Fed's wait - and - see stance [1][11]. 3.4 Inflation - Concerns about inflation rebound have subsided, but the absolute level is still higher than the long - term target. In December, the year - on - year CPI and core CPI in the US were 2.7% and 2.6% respectively, and the month - on - month were 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. Among the sub - items, the prices of household goods and clothing related to tariffs in core commodities continued to rise, the prices of leisure services increased significantly, the prices of education services decreased significantly month - on - month, and housing inflation remained resilient. Although the December inflation data alleviated market concerns about inflation rebound, the absolute level of inflation has not returned to the policy target, which restricts the Fed's subsequent easing operations [1][16]. 3.5 Other Issues - Powell did not make substantial responses to political issues such as the Cook case, the Department of Justice subpoena, and the dollar fluctuation at the press conference. He has no plans for his future after his term as chairman expires in May. He also said that the lawsuit against Fed Governor Cook might be the most significant case in the Fed's history, emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence, and suggested that the next Fed chairman should stay away from elected politics [1][18].

Core Perspective - Viewing the United States as a large corporation named "American Group" provides clarity on its complex structure and operations, contrasting it with a unified state like China [1][3]. Group Structure - The headquarters of the company is located in Washington, D.C., where the White House and Congress serve as the main offices and board of directors [4]. - The President acts as the rotating CEO, with leadership changing frequently [4]. Power Dynamics - The board consists of two factions competing for resources and influence, but the fundamental goal remains profit generation and maintaining the company's dominant position [5]. - The Federal Reserve functions as the chief financial officer, managing monetary policy to stabilize the economy and maintain global trust in U.S. Treasury bonds [5]. Key Business Units - The military-industrial complex is a significant department, responsible for lobbying Congress for large defense budgets and showcasing products globally to create market demand [6][8]. - The immigration system operates as the human resources department, focusing on attracting top talent and providing a labor force for low-wage jobs [9][11]. Economic Strategies - The "petrodollar" system ties global oil transactions to the U.S. dollar, ensuring demand for the currency and solidifying its stability [14]. - The company utilizes its financial instruments, such as Treasury bonds, to fund various initiatives, including military actions and infrastructure projects [5][21]. Operational Coordination - When the board decides to demonstrate power or engage in military action, the process involves media preparation, budget allocation for military production, and financial market stabilization by the Federal Reserve [20]. - The execution of these plans often relies on immigrant labor and local low-wage workers, who bear the costs of these operations [21]. Systemic Functionality - The American Group attracts global talent with the promise of the "American Dream," while maintaining a system that prioritizes its survival and strength over individual employee welfare [22][23]. - The majority of ordinary individuals within this system function as expendable resources, replaced as needed to sustain operations [22][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Stronger than the market: Expected to outperform the market by more than 5% in the next 6 months [5] - Neutral: Expected to perform within ±5% of the market in the next 6 months [5] - Weaker than the market: Expected to underperform the market by more than 5% in the next 6 months [5] Core View of the Report - In the January 2026 meeting, the Fed decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 3.5 - 3.75%, with Governors Milan and Waller voting against and advocating a 25BP rate cut [2] - The Fed's statement changes mainly include modifying the description of economic growth from "moderate" to "solid" and indicating that the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization [2] - Powell affirmed the economic resilience and still did not consider rate hikes as the baseline scenario. The next rate cut will comprehensively consider inflation and employment [2][3] - There was not much incremental information in this meeting, and Powell's stance was generally mild. The US Treasury yields fluctuated little, and the market's forecast of the rate cut amplitude this year remained at around 46BP [2][4] - In terms of strategy, the resilience of the US fundamentals in Q1 may limit the downward space of long - term yields. Short - term US Treasuries have certain allocation value [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fed Meeting Decisions - The Fed kept the policy rate at 3.5 - 3.75% in the January 2026 meeting, and two governors voted against and proposed a 25BP rate cut [2] Changes in the Fed's Statement - The description of economic growth was changed from "moderate" to "solid", and it was stated that the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization, while the description of paying attention to employment downside risks was removed [2] Powell's Stance - Powell affirmed the economic resilience, stating that the economy has once again surprised with its strength [2][3] - He believed that the current policy rate is at the upper edge of the neutral rate forecast range, and it is more in the neutral or slightly restrictive range [2][3] - Rate cuts may still be the baseline expectation. The next rate cut will comprehensively consider inflation and employment, and rate hikes are not the Fed's baseline expectation [2][3] Asset Price Performance - After the meeting, US Treasury yields fluctuated little, and the market's forecast of the rate cut amplitude this year remained at around 46BP [2][4] Investment Strategy - The resilience of the US fundamentals in Q1 may limit the downward space of long - term yields. Short - term US Treasuries have certain allocation value. If January inflation continues to exceed expectations seasonally, it may provide a better short - term allocation window [2]

地缘升温叠加偏鸽预期 贵金属延续强势表现 市场分析 利率方面，美联储维持基准利率在3.50%-3.75%不变，在连续三次降息25个基点后暂停行动，符合市场预期。美联 储主席候选人沃勒支持降息25个基点，与特朗普"钦点"理事米兰立场一致。美联储在声明中指出，失业率已现初 步企稳迹象，通胀仍处于相对高位，经济前景的不确定性依然较高。美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，加 息并非任何人对下一步行动的基本假设，不相信美联储会丧失独立性，将建议下一届美联储主席远离政治。地缘 方面，美国总统特朗普再次对伊朗发出威胁称，下次对伊朗的打击将更加猛烈。特朗普称，一支庞大的舰队正前 往伊朗，已准备好迅速履行其使命。针对特朗普威胁，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示，伊朗武装力量高度戒备，将对任 何针侵略作出迅速而果断的回应。 期货行情与成交量： 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-29 2026-01-28，沪金主力合约开于1146.80元/克，收于1186.20元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动3.29%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于1189.60元/克，收于1196.80元/克，较昨日午后收 ...

新华财经纽约1月28日电（记者刘亚南）由于美国宏观经济和就业指标整体改善，美国联邦储备委员会 在28日结束的货币政策会议上决定维持利率不变，再次进入观望模式。 同时，围绕联邦政府政府对美联储的刑事调查、美国最高法院对联邦政府解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克案 的审理、新任美联储主席的提名、美联储内部运行等出现的挑战仍在继续发酵，美联储独立性成为绕不 开的话题。 宏观形势解读偏向乐观 联邦公开市场委员会当日发布的公告和美联储主席鲍威尔均描绘了较为乐观的宏观形势，从通胀和就业 形势两方面看，暂时没有继续降息的迫切性。当日的决定也与鲍威尔在12月货币政策会议后释放将暂停 降息的信号一致。 鲍威尔在28日午后举行的记者会上表示，美国经济去年以坚实的步伐扩张，并在进入2026年时表现坚 实。虽然新增就业岗位数量依然处于低位，但失业率已经表现出一些企稳迹象，通胀则依然在一定程度 上处于高位。 美国2025年第三季度美国国内生产总值环比按年率计算增长4.4%，四季度预计也会有不错的增速，去 年12月失业率则回落至4.4%。尽管消费者信心指数等仍然较为糟糕，决策者在通胀压力尚未缓解的情 况下倾向于继续观察。 鲍威尔对通胀形势给出相对 ...

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations[2] - The Fed's statement reflects increased optimism about the economy, with the term "robust" replacing "moderate" in describing economic expansion[3] - The unemployment rate has stabilized at 4.4%, alleviating concerns about further declines in employment[3] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target, with December CPI and core CPI year-on-year growth at 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively[4] - The Fed's cautious stance on inflation indicates that the path to lower inflation is not smooth, leading to a pause in rate cuts[5] - The Fed is expected to enter a data observation period, with potential rate cuts delayed until around June, despite two possible cuts within the year[6] Political Considerations - The Fed's decision to pause rate cuts may also be influenced by political pressures, particularly with midterm elections approaching[8] - The new Fed chair, expected to take office in June, may implement the first rate cut of the year during that meeting[9] Future Projections - Economic growth may slow in the second half of the year as fiscal stimulus wanes, but inflation pressures are anticipated to ease by mid-2026[9] - The Fed is likely to continue its reserve management purchase (RMP) strategy to support liquidity during the pause in rate cuts[9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent FOMC meeting signals a shift in market expectations for gold, influenced by changes in the Federal Reserve's policy stance and economic outlook [1][3][5] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the first pause after three consecutive rate cuts in 2025 [5][7] - The statement from the meeting removed references to "rising employment risks" and emphasized improvements in certain areas of the economy, indicating that the Fed does not feel compelled to continue easing immediately [5][7] - Internal divisions among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts suggest uncertainty in monetary policy direction, with some officials still favoring further cuts [7] Group 2: Impact on Gold Market - Gold is highly sensitive to interest rate expectations; a weakened logic for urgent rate cuts could lead to significant price volatility in the gold market [5][7] - The potential for a prolonged observation period by the Fed may increase the likelihood of a dollar rebound, which could lead to a divergence where macroeconomic logic remains unchanged but prices adjust prematurely [7][9] - Investors are cautioned against blindly entering the gold market based solely on long-term bullish sentiment, as short- to medium-term drivers may create a vacuum [7][9] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Strategy - The Fed's decision to pause is seen as a signal for patience and observation, suggesting that restraint may be more valuable than impulsive actions during this period [9] - While gold retains its long-term value as a hedge against uncertainty, the market needs time to digest previously priced-in easing expectations [9] - Understanding the shift in logic is deemed more critical than chasing emotional price points, as the future trajectory of gold may involve complex fluctuations rather than a straightforward upward trend [9]

美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说，现有指标显示美国经济活动在"稳健扩 张"，但经济前景的不确定性仍在高位。就业增长持续低迷，失业率有一些企稳迹象，通胀仍处较高水 平。 鲍威尔回避了有关新任美联储主席提名后过渡期、近期美元汇率波动和他自己遭受刑事调查等话题 的提问。不过，他表示，如果央行失去独立性，将很难恢复。他本人和同事均强烈致力于维护美联储独 立性。 鲍威尔还对下一任美联储主席提出建议："不要卷入选举政治。不要这么做。" 美国司法部9日向美联储送达传票，威胁对鲍威尔2025年6月在参议院银行委员会就美联储办公楼翻 新项目作证一事提起刑事诉讼。鲍威尔随后发表声明说，美国联邦检察官对其相关指控都是"借口"，直 言遭调查是因为美联储"没有遵从总统意愿"来设定利率。 新华社纽约1月28日电（记者刘亚南）美国联邦储备委员会28日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣 布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不变，符合市场预期。美联储主席鲍威尔会后回避 有关自己未来去向的提问，但建议继任者不要卷入政治纷争。 鲍威尔在当日下午举行的发布会上表示，美联储未来的货币政策决定将基于新的数据。 公告显示，联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, while indicating ongoing economic uncertainty and inflation concerns [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its meeting with 10 out of 12 members supporting the decision to keep rates unchanged, while two members advocated for a 25 basis point cut [1] - Powell stated that the current federal funds rate is generally considered "neutral" and highlighted that core inflation in December 2022 likely reached 3% [1] - The Fed may consider easing monetary policy if inflation peaks and begins to decline as previously anticipated [1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Economic activity in the U.S. is described as "robustly expanding," but there are high levels of uncertainty regarding the economic outlook [1] - Employment growth remains sluggish, with some signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate, while inflation continues to be at elevated levels [1] Group 3: Independence and Future Leadership - Powell emphasized the importance of maintaining the Federal Reserve's independence and advised the next chair not to engage in political disputes [2][3] - The market perceives an 88.6% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in the next policy meeting, an increase from 82.7% the previous day [3]