Report Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings for each industry are provided in the report Core Views - The data reflects China's economic resilience, market risk aversion eases, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures; market interest rates are consolidating, treasury bonds are rebounding slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [2] - Under the "anti - involution" situation, the supply of finished steel may shrink; the expectation of old - city renovation and shantytown transformation has led to the entry of long - position funds, and the price increase of coke by mainstream coking plants will be implemented this week, driving the black sector to rise sharply [3] - Trump's latest tariff measures have escalated the trade war, and the resurgence of market risk aversion has boosted the gold price; the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has decreased, and this week's CPI data should be monitored; gold is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [4] - The spot price of logs is stable, the expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, the supply pressure will ease, and the daily average outbound volume has fallen below 60,000 cubic meters; the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the impact of log futures delivery on log prices should be noted [5] - The production of natural rubber in domestic and foreign producing areas is increasing steadily, and there is still room for the raw material price to decline; port inventories remain high, and the weak fundamentals cannot support the continuous rise of rubber prices [6] - Due to the large arrival volume of soybeans and high - pressure oil extraction by oil mills, the inventories of three major oils are continuously rising; the supply is abundant and it is the off - season for demand, lacking self - driving force; however, palm oil is oscillating strongly due to the popular export, the rising expectation of biodiesel, and the rebound of international crude oil [7] - US tariff policies continue to pressure oil prices, PX is continuously destocking and fluctuates with oil prices; the supply - demand expectation of PTA is weakening and it will follow cost fluctuations in the short term; the raw materials are differentiated, but the supply - demand of MEQ is weakening, and the upside space of the futures price is restricted [8] - The market supply - demand stalemate is obvious; northern livestock farmers are forced to cut prices for promotion due to the pressure of selling livestock, while the south stabilizes the market by adjusting the supply rhythm; weak consumer demand restricts price increases, and the regional price difference is gradually widening; domestic hog prices are expected to maintain small fluctuations [9] Summary by Industry Stock and Bond - Data reflects China's economic resilience, market risk aversion eases, recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures; market interest rates are consolidating, treasury bonds are rebounding slightly, recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [2] Black - Under "anti - involution", finished steel supply may shrink; the expectation of old - city renovation and shantytown transformation has led to long - position funds, and the coke price increase by mainstream coking plants will be implemented this week, driving the black sector to rise sharply [3] Gold - Trump's tariff measures have escalated the trade war, market risk aversion has boosted the gold price; the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has decreased, and this week's CPI data should be monitored; gold is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [4] Logs - Spot price is stable, expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, supply pressure eases, daily average outbound volume has fallen below 60,000 cubic meters; fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the impact of log futures delivery on log prices should be noted [5] Rubber - Production in domestic and foreign producing areas is increasing steadily, raw material price has room to decline; port inventories remain high, and weak fundamentals cannot support continuous rise of rubber prices [6] Oils - Due to large soybean arrival and high - pressure oil extraction, inventories of three major oils are rising; supply is abundant and it is the off - season for demand, lacking self - driving force; palm oil is oscillating strongly due to popular export, rising biodiesel expectation, and international crude oil rebound [7] Oil - related Chemicals - US tariff policies pressure oil prices, PX is destocking and fluctuates with oil prices; PTA supply - demand expectation is weakening and follows cost fluctuations in the short term; raw materials are differentiated, but MEQ supply - demand is weakening, and the upside space of the futures price is restricted [8] Livestock - Market supply - demand stalemate is obvious; northern farmers cut prices due to selling pressure, the south stabilizes the market by adjusting supply rhythm; weak consumer demand restricts price increases, regional price difference is widening; domestic hog prices are expected to maintain small fluctuations [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand conditions. It is expected to have an overall range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal market is in a situation of low valuation, short - term high supply, and cost support, with a mixed long - short situation [2][5]. - The global soybean import cost is currently stable, but there is a risk of unexpected decline due to potential trade war easing or macro - impacts [3]. - The global soybean or protein supply is still in surplus, while the domestic soybean meal market has cost support due to procurement issues related to Sino - US tariffs [5]. - The EPA policy has increased the annual operating center of the oil market, but there are still negative factors such as high production in Southeast Asian palm oil regions, and the market is expected to be volatile [7][10]. - The domestic sugar market may face increased import pressure in the second half of the year, and the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [13]. - The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with potential negative factors such as the possible issuance of sliding - scale import quotas in July - August [16]. - The egg market has a large supply, and the short - term rebound space is limited. It is advisable to wait for a rebound to short [18]. - The pig market has a certain degree of support in the short term, but there are pressures from supply postponement and hedging in the medium term [21]. 3. Summary by Catalog Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: On Monday, the US soybean price slightly declined. The good - excellent rate of US soybeans increased by 4% to 70%. The North American weather is good, and the potential impact of the trade war on exports continues to put pressure on US soybeans. However, the valuation of US soybeans is slightly low, and recent sales of old - crop soybeans and biodiesel policies support demand. The domestic soybean meal futures slightly rose on Monday. According to MYSTEEL statistics, last week, the domestic soybean crushing volume was 2.2954 million tons, and this week, it is expected to be 2.3803 million tons. Last week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 886,200 (+64,000) tons, and the port soybean inventory was 8.231 (+0.343) million tons [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The import cost of foreign soybeans is currently oscillating. The domestic soybean meal market is in a situation where long - short factors are intertwined. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the upper end, waiting for progress in Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side [5]. Fats and Oils - **Important Information**: High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 are expected to increase by 5.31% - 12%. From July 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit increased by 35.43%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and the output increased by 35.28%. India's palm oil imports in June increased by 60% month - on - month, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8%, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8%. The total vegetable oil imports in June were 1.549825 million tons, a 30.6% increase from May. Last week, the total inventory of the three major domestic oils was 2.298 (+0.04) million tons, mainly due to seasonal inventory accumulation of palm oil and soybean oil, and the year - on - year high inventory was due to high rapeseed oil inventory and slow destocking [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US biodiesel policy draft has exceeded expectations and supported the center of the oil market. If demand countries maintain normal imports from July - September and palm oil production in the producing areas remains at a neutral level, the inventory in the producing areas may remain stable. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upward space is restricted by factors such as the annual - level production increase expectation, high palm oil production in the producing areas, and the undetermined RVO rules. The market should be viewed as volatile [10]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Monday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated. The closing price of the September contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,817 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan or 0.12% increase from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups were stable compared with the previous trading day. According to the latest data from the Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week of July 9, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 90, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.6855 million tons [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic sugar market is currently in the best import profit window in the past five years, and the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year. Assuming that the external market price does not rebound significantly, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [13]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Monday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to oscillate. The closing price of the September contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,875 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan or 0.07% decrease from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (CCIndex 3128B) increased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. As of the week of July 11, the spinning mill's operating rate was 70.4%, a 0.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the weaving mill's operating rate was 39.3%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 2.61 million tons, a 140,000 - ton decrease from the previous week [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Sino - US trade agreement has not been finalized, the price of Zhengzhou cotton has rebounded to the level before the announcement of US equivalent tariffs, partially reflecting the positive expectation. In the short term, the cotton price is expected to be volatile, waiting for new drivers [16]. Egg - **Spot Information**: The national egg price was mostly stable, with a few increases. The average price in the main production areas rose by 0.01 yuan to 2.75 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, the downstream sales speed was normal, and the inventory in each link was generally small. Today, the egg price is expected to be stable, with a few fluctuations [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to continuous losses, the degree of production capacity clearance is still limited, and the large supply has postponed the seasonal rebound of the spot price. The short - term rebound space is restricted by inventory. Considering the high premium of the futures market and large positions, it is advisable to wait for a rebound to short [18]. Pig - **Spot Information**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price mainly declined. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.08 yuan to 14.65 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped by 0.17 yuan to 13.84 yuan/kg. The slaughter volume may remain stable, and the supply - demand situation is in a stalemate. Today, the pig price may be stable or decline [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Since late June, the spot price has significantly rebounded, accompanied by a reduction in slaughter volume and weight decline, indicating a seasonal supply reduction in the middle of the year. In the short term, there is support for the market, but in the medium term, there are pressures from supply postponement and hedging [21].

Investment Rating - The report indicates an expectation that the US effective tariff rate will settle closer to 18% rather than the current 13.4% [1] Core Insights - The new tariff measures are projected to raise the average effective US tariff rate to 16.9%, significantly higher than the 2.3% at the end of 2024, but below the 22.4% in force on April 2 [10] - The report highlights that the effective tariff increases scheduled for August 1 will include a 50% tariff on copper and a potential 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals [5][17] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff adjustments are expected to have a direct impact on global GDP growth, with a projected drag increasing from 0.5 percentage points to 0.7 percentage points under the new tariff regime [23] Summary by Sections Tariff Rates - The effective US tariff rates are expected to increase significantly, with specific rates such as 50% on copper and reciprocal tariffs on various countries [5][10] - The report outlines that the effective tariff rates for several countries will revert to the April "Liberation Day" levels if no new tariff letters are issued [14] Economic Impact - The report estimates that the direct GDP impact for the US from the new tariffs could be around -0.8 percentage points, with emerging markets in Asia, particularly those excluding China, facing the highest exposure [24][32] - Global GDP growth is projected to expand at a sub-potential rate of 1.8%, with a notable downgrade in expectations since the US election [18] Sector-Specific Insights - The report discusses potential sectoral tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and critical minerals, indicating that these sectors are under active investigation and may face significant tariff increases [15][17] - Exemptions for certain sectors still imply lower effective tariff rates for many countries, but the risk of higher tariffs remains elevated due to ongoing investigations [17]

Group 1 - The U.S. has announced high tariffs on goods from 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, with rates ranging from 25% to 40% [1][3] - The tariffs have triggered strong international backlash, with leaders from affected countries condemning the U.S. actions as humiliating and unfair [3][4] - The financial markets reacted negatively, with significant drops in major indices and stock prices of Japanese automakers [6] Group 2 - The "Big Beautiful Bill Act" signed by Trump has led to increased logistics costs for Chinese e-commerce and heightened tax burdens for semiconductor companies [8] - China's export controls on rare earth elements have impacted the U.S. military supply chain, highlighting vulnerabilities in U.S. reliance on Chinese resources [9] - The global trade landscape is shifting, with trade volumes in Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East growing faster than the global average, indicating a move towards a multipolar trade environment [11]

Group 1 - The core issue discussed is the escalation of the trade dispute between the EU and the US, particularly regarding the proposed 30% tariffs on EU imports by President Trump [1][2] - The EU is currently deliberating on how to respond to the US tariffs, with a focus on maintaining unity among member states while considering both negotiation and retaliation strategies [1][2] - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has indicated a preference for negotiation, extending the suspension of retaliatory measures against US tariffs until August 1 [1][3] Group 2 - European Parliament's International Trade Committee Chairman Bernd Lange has expressed skepticism about the EU's approach, advocating for a stronger stance against Trump's tariffs, which he deems unreasonable [2] - French President Emmanuel Macron has emphasized the need for the EU to demonstrate its commitment to defending European interests, suggesting the use of all available tools, including countermeasures [2] - German Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil has stated that if negotiations fail, decisive countermeasures must be prepared to protect European jobs and businesses, although he does not advocate for immediate action [3]

Core Viewpoint - Silver has surged to its highest level since 2011, driven by investor demand as an alternative to gold and concerns over potential U.S. tariffs disrupting global metal supplies, with a year-to-date increase of 35% compared to gold's 28% gain [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR) have spiked, while silver miner ETFs like Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) and ETFMG Prime Junior Silver ETF (SILJ) have reached multi-year highs, indicating leveraged gains in a rising metal market [2] - The renewed threat of trade wars, particularly the announcement of sweeping tariff measures by President Trump, has led to increased physical buying of silver, further accelerating its rally [3] - Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding the Trump administration's trade policies enhance silver's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset during financial and political instability [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The silver market is facing a sustained supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year, primarily driven by surging industrial demand from sectors like green energy and electronics [5] - Approximately 50% of silver's total demand comes from industrial applications, with the remaining 30% from jewelry, silverware, coins, and medals [6] - The global push for green energy, increasing demand in 5G technology, and a rebound in global computer shipments are expected to continue boosting silver demand, particularly in solar panels and electric vehicles [7] Group 3: Price Influencers - The spread between London spot prices and September futures in New York remains unusually wide, contributing to bullish momentum in the silver market [8] - The weakness of the U.S. dollar has made dollar-denominated assets like silver more attractive to foreign buyers, further fueling the rally [9]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around Brazil's response to the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on Brazilian metal products, which includes retaliatory measures against U.S. soybean and corn imports [1][3] - The U.S. claims that Brazil's judicial processes harm American business interests, while Brazil's government views this as interference in its internal affairs, particularly following investigations into former President Bolsonaro [3] - Brazil's trade data contradicts U.S. claims of trade imbalance, with U.S. exports to Brazil reaching $78.2 billion in 2024 and a surplus of $12.7 billion [3] Group 2 - Brazil has been reducing its dependency on the U.S. market, with exports to the U.S. dropping from 23% in 2018 to 16% in 2024, while soybean exports to China have increased by 47% over three years [5] - The BRICS nations have seen their internal trade exceed $1.8 trillion, with Brazil's currency settlements with India and South Africa tripling year-on-year [5] - The U.S. agricultural sector may face significant losses, with predictions indicating a potential 5% loss in U.S. soybean market share to Brazil, resulting in over $1.2 billion in annual losses for Midwestern farmers [5] Group 3 - Brazil's Senate Foreign Relations Committee has initiated an assessment of trade relations with the U.S., aiming to coordinate tariffs with Mercosur countries by October [7] - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns that ongoing trade tensions could lead to the loss of 12,000 jobs in the U.S. South American region [7]

银价上涨的背后是现货市场供应紧张和借贷成本激增。一个月期银价借贷的隐含年化成本已跳升至6%以上，远高于通常接近零的水平。 美国贸易政策担忧也进一步推高了银价，墨西哥作为最大的银生产国和美国市场的关键供应商，面临高达30%的关税威胁。此外，作为避险资产 和工业用金属，银价受益于地缘政治冲突、贸易紧张局势以及太阳能板等工业需求的推动。 现货市场供需失衡加剧 银价攀升至近十四年高位，投资者在金价接近历史纪录的背景下寻求替代性贵金属投资。 周一，现货白银延续了上周4%的涨势，日内一度上涨1.9%，突破每盎司39美元至近十四年高位，今年以来累计涨35%，超过黄金28%的涨幅。 银价需求目前受益于贸易战威胁，以及黄金价格对许多投资者来说过于昂贵。 墨西哥面临的关税威胁尤其引人关注。据央视新闻，当地时间7月12日，美国总统特朗普宣布自2025年8月1日起，美国将对来自墨西哥和欧盟的输 美产品征收30%的关税。 作为全球最大的银生产国，墨西哥是美国市场的关键供应商。尽管《美墨加协定》暂时将银价排除在关税清单之外，但市场担心这一豁免可能不 会持续。 伦敦现货价格与纽约9月期货合约之间的价差异常宽泛，类似于年初特朗普激进贸易政策 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest still existing. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment has suppressed expectations of interest rate cuts. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short term, fluctuate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] - Gold price trends serve as an anchor for silver prices. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have reduced their positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 1.06%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.11%. [1] - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war enters a new stage; economic recession and geopolitical risks remain; US economic stagflation risk increases; strong employment suppresses interest - rate cut expectations. [1] - **Safe - Haven Attribute**: Trump escalated the trade war, threatening to impose a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: Fed officials' views on interest - rate prospects differ due to different expectations of how tariffs may affect inflation. Strong US employment growth has eliminated the possibility of a near - term Fed interest - rate cut. The market now expects the next Fed interest - rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest - rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index has faced pressure in its rebound, and the strong RMB has suppressed domestic prices. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] Silver - **Price Anchor**: Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices. [5] - **Capital and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have reduced their positions again, and the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly. [5] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the Fed's total assets are $67,132.36 billion, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.50%. [8] - **US Treasury and Dollar Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.60%, the US dollar index is 97.86, the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.51, and the US Treasury yield spread (2 - year to 10 - year) is - 0.02. [8][10] - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, CPI month - on - month is 0.20%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.80%, core CPI month - on - month is 0.20%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.34%, and core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.68%. [10] - **Economic Growth Data**: US GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 1.90%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is - 0.50%, the unemployment rate is 4.10%, and non - farm payrolls monthly change is 14.70 million. [10] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index is 132.88, the VIX index is 17.65, the CRB commodity index is 303.52, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1706. [11] Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations The probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate levels at different meetings from July 2025 to December 2026 is presented in a table, showing the changing market expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions over time. [12]

7月9日，特朗普突然宣布对巴西加征50%的进口关税。这一消息令人震惊，因为在今年4月，特朗普就曾针对全球范围内的贸易进行加税时，巴西的关税仅 为10%。然而，现在巴西面临的关税跃升至全球最高的50%，这一突如其来的决定让全球经济界议论纷纷，许多人纷纷猜测特朗普此举的真正动机是什么。 更加引人注目的是巴西总统卢拉的反应。他不仅坚决拒绝了特朗普的加税提案，而且直言不讳地表示，巴西完全不依赖美国，照样能够生存下去。这番话显 示了卢拉不畏强权、敢于直面挑战的姿态，让全球媒体纷纷将目光聚焦于巴西和特朗普之间的复杂博弈。 实际上，特朗普的关税政策最初主要针对那些与美国有贸易顺差的国家，他希望通过加税手段来减少美国的贸易逆差。过去15年里，美国与巴西之间的贸易 顺差已超过4000亿美元，意味着美国大量商品以零关税进入巴西市场，赚取了丰厚利润。然而，现在特朗普将巴西的进口关税从10%提高到50%，这一调整 几乎使巴西的进口成本暴涨，成为全球贸易中最高的税率。这使得全球贸易界一时困惑不解，特朗普到底是想达成什么样的目的？ 从背后的动机来看，特朗普此举很大程度上带有明显的私怨。特朗普与巴西前总统博尔索纳罗的关系非常亲密，两人在政 ...