要说特朗普为啥这么反复，还得看看美国那边的情况，贸易战打到现在，美国自己也快吃不消了。关税战不仅没让美国占到多少便宜，反而让国内的经济和 政治压力直线上升。眼瞅着明年就是美国中期选举，各州的地方政府都急得像热锅上的蚂蚁。贸易战让不少州的出口产业受到重创，经济数据一个比一个难 看。 尤其是加利福尼亚州，作为美国经济人口第一大州，外贸是命根子，关税战一打，出口订单哗哗往下掉，当地企业叫苦不迭，其他州的情况也好不到哪儿 去，共和党州和民主党州的地方官员难得统一了战线，纷纷对特朗普的政策开炮。有些州甚至直接把特朗普当局告上了法庭，指责贸易战让地方经济雪上加 霜。 中美贸易战打了一个多月，特朗普这边刚嚷着要谈，转头又翻脸说不降税，弄得人有点摸不着头脑，中方这边倒是稳得住，始终不慌不忙，同意接触但一点 不示弱，这场博弈，表面看是关税和贸易的较量，实际上是双方底气的比拼，特朗普的态度为啥这么反复？接下来的接触还能不能谈出个结果呢？ 文案|编辑：清 中美贸易战已经持续了一个多月，双方你来我往，局势始终僵持不下，就在这节骨眼上，美国总统特朗普的态度却像过山车一样，忽上忽下，让人看得眼花 缭乱。先是美方频频放风，说想跟中方坐下来 ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 基本面方面，巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，播种进度 99.97%，2024 年总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉压力比 较大。国内新疆新棉播种已经结束，并未出现异常天气，今年丰产概率 增大。美棉已经进入播种期，后续 7、8 月美国天气值得关注，从整体 上，25、26 年度预期全球依然是高产年份。近期美国宏观数据显示疲 弱，美联储释放鸽派信号，叠加中美贸易战进入新的阶段，中美双方开 始进行接触，并且国务院降息降准等刺激政策落地，市场情绪有所缓和， 但由于中美贸易战不确定性仍存，以及全球经济的衰退预期上升，在消 费端存在下滑的可能性，供增需弱，对长远趋势看弱，未来的 6 月份显 得比较关键，如果中美握手言和，取消对等关税，美联储开始降息，行 情还有转机的机会，如果不能，则会一直发展不利。短期国内基本面无 变化，操作建议，依然是保持谨慎，有反弹做好套保对冲思路。（数据 来源：中国棉花信息网 TTEB） ◆ PTA：偏强震荡 本周 PTA 低位反弹，一方面是基本面成本与供需利好支撑，另一方面 宏观回暖与国内政策支持，短期 PTA 价 ...

所以，对于这周六开始的第一轮谈判，大家别抱太大希望！我们还是坚持做自己，能谈就谈，不能谈也不迁就。面对美国的关税政策，东方大国绝对不是好 惹的，美国先加征10%关税，咱们就先加征10%关税；美国再加征5%，咱们就再加征5%。 中美"第二阶段"贸易协定的事儿，到底会谈里会不会提？商务部都回应了。可川普又开始"变脸"，说了一堆乱七八糟的，搞得我们不得不再次出来"敲 打"他。中方的态度很明确，绝不会接受美方说一套、做一套，必须拿出点诚意来！我之前就说过，这次谈判，他肯定又会蛮横地提一堆无理要求。 二、美联储公布利率决议，维持基准利率在4.25%～4.50%不变。 一、中美贸易战正式升级！中美5月9日至12日将在瑞士开启首轮谈判！ 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，让我们做时间的朋友，享受价值投资带来的收获。对于近期股市有什么看法，欢迎读者在下方评论区讨论。 沪深两市全天成交额1.29万亿，较上个交易日缩量1749亿。指数昨天提到算是有效突破，今天缩量震荡，从筹码角度看资金还是比较惜售。 明天大概率还是会有冲高的预期。题材看，除军工外其他题材还是轮动为主，重点关注军工的持续性，如果继续走强，板块容易走出主线行情。 四、涨停复盘 ...

Group 1: Trade War Overview - The current US-China trade war is an escalation of the 2018 trade conflict, with the US imposing an average import tariff of 134.7% on Chinese goods, with some products facing tariffs as high as 245%[11][15]. - Historically, the US has initiated seven rounds of trade wars, with the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act being a significant example that worsened the Great Depression[5][8]. - The trade war has led to increased volatility in global capital markets and a restructuring of the global trade system[7]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The trade war is expected to impact China's GDP growth by approximately 0.9-1.6 percentage points under neutral scenarios, with potential declines of 2.0-2.6 percentage points in pessimistic scenarios[6][26]. - China's exports to the US are heavily reliant on specific sectors, with textiles and light industrial products being particularly vulnerable, where over 50% of certain products are exported to the US[27][28]. - The US trade deficit with China decreased from 2.0% of GDP to 1.0% from 2018 Q3 to 2024 Q3, while the deficit with other countries increased from 2.2% to 3.0%[14]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - China has implemented countermeasures, including reciprocal tariffs and diversifying export markets to reduce reliance on the US, with exports to Vietnam increasing by 1.4% over the past five years[27][28]. - The Chinese government is focusing on expanding domestic demand and technological advancements to mitigate the impact of tariffs, emphasizing investment in high-tech sectors[6][26]. - Long-term strategies include reforming state-owned enterprises and enhancing social security to boost consumer spending and economic resilience[6][26].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price experienced a decline, closing at $3341.69 per ounce, down 0.67% from the previous day, with a trading range between $3366.36 and $3319.82 [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates but highlighted increasing risks related to inflation and unemployment, complicating the economic outlook [1] - The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for gold, with a key support level at $3303 and resistance at $3350, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds [3] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices are expected to rebound, potentially surpassing $60 per barrel, amid expectations that the US-China trade war has peaked [4] - Recent declines in Brent and WTI crude oil prices were attributed to market skepticism regarding trade negotiations and positive signals from Iran's nuclear talks [4] - The technical outlook for oil shows a downward trend, with a potential target of $50, and a recommendation to sell on rebounds with resistance at $60.3 and support at $57.0 [5]

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（资料图） 据金融界报道，韩国产业部副部长Park Sung-taek日前表示，由于所涉及问题的复杂性和政治不确定性，韩国认为在6月3日总统大选之前不可能与美国达成 全面贸易协议。Park表示，韩国政府本周将派代表团前往华盛顿进行工作组级别会谈，以推进上周的进展，但6月初之前就任何一揽子措施达成协议"在理论 上是不可能的"。美国财政部长Scott Bessent上周表示，继上周在华盛顿举行贸易谈判后，两国可能最快在本周达成"谅解协议"。Bessent表示，谈判进展比预 期更快，有望在7月8日关税生效的最后期限前完成。 特朗普上台100天，美国就出现了"债股汇"三杀，经济衰退已经成为了一个极大概率事件。然而，美国一向缺乏解决内部矛盾的智慧，他们惯于向外转移压 力。随着美国认清了我国的现有实力，特朗普政府决定从盟友身上开刀，最大程度地从盟友国家手中攫取利益。特朗普此前要求韩国开放汽车市场，并限制 钢铁出口，而韩方坚持要求特朗普豁免25%汽车关税，和10%铝制品关税。值得注意的是，韩国代表团在首次正式关税会谈后，特意向美方强调了当前"代 总统执政"的特殊政治状态。 据北晚在线报道，日前，日 ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 基本面方面，巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，播种进度 99.97%，2024 年总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉压力比 较大。国内新疆新棉播种已经结束，并未出现异常天气，今年丰产概率 增大。美棉已经进入播种期，后续 7、8 月美国天气值得关注，从整体 上，25、26 年度预期全球依然是高产年份。近期美国宏观数据显示疲 弱，美联储释放鸽派信号，叠加中美贸易战进入新的阶段，中美双方开 始进行接触，并且国务院降息降准等刺激政策落地，市场情绪有所缓和， 但由于中美贸易战不确定性仍存，以及全球经济的衰退预期上升，在消 费端存在下滑的可能性，供增需弱，对长远趋势看弱，未来的 6 月份显 得比较关键，如果中美握手言和，取消对等关税，美联储开始降息，行 情还有转机的机会，如果不能，则会一直发展不利。短期国内基本面无 变化，操作建议，依然是保持谨慎，有反弹做好套保对冲思路。（数据 来源：中国棉花信息网 TTEB） ◆ PTA：偏强震荡 产业服务总部 棉纺团队 2025-5-8 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2 ...

Group 1 - The trade negotiations between China and the United States are ongoing, with China asserting that it will not accept any vague attitudes or preconditions from the U.S. [1] - China emphasizes the mutual benefits of trade but insists on not being coerced into accepting unequal terms imposed by the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with the ChiNext index rising by 2%, indicating a focus on technology and small-cap stocks [3] - The continuation of the market rally depends on trading volume; sustained volume is necessary for the market to rise further [3] - Key resistance levels are identified at the 60-day and half-year moving averages, with a target of 3326 points [3] Group 3 - A significant trading volume of 1.36 trillion yuan was recorded, an increase of 170 billion yuan from the previous day, with nearly 5000 stocks rising [5] - The positive market conditions are attributed to the appreciation of the yuan and easing tariff expectations, leading to a favorable outlook for May [5] - The market is expected to remain strong, with a focus on maintaining upward trends in stock prices [5] Group 4 - The A-share market opened positively in May, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% and returning to the 3300-point level, with nearly 5000 stocks in the green [7] - The market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of more favorable conditions ahead, as previous negative factors have been addressed [7] - A gradual upward trend is preferred over rapid increases, as there are still significant resistance levels to overcome [7]

德国商会：86%在华德企受中美贸易战影响 汽车、机械行业尤甚 智通财经5月7日电，德国商会发布的针对中美贸易战对在华德国企业影响的调查报告显示，86%的在华 德国企业受到了关税贸易战的影响，其中机械行业、汽车行业受影响的企业比例分别高达86%、93%。 ...

Group 1 - The chief economist of Apollo Global Management warns that the rapid decline in trade between the US and China could lead to empty store shelves in the US within weeks, similar to shortages experienced during the pandemic [1] - The economist indicates that the US inflation level is likely to worsen due to China's role as a major supplier of many consumer goods [1] - Following Trump's announcement of a 90-day delay on certain tariffs, economists felt slightly reassured, but concerns about a potential US economic recession remain [3] Group 2 - As the effective date for a 145% tariff on Chinese goods approaches, US retailers and consumers are expected to face a "winter of product shortages and price increases" [5] - Retailers began stockpiling goods in anticipation of the tariffs, but many canceled orders after the announcement, leading to a halt in shipping from China [5] - The article emphasizes the heavy reliance of American households on Chinese imports for essential goods, with many items in homes being predominantly sourced from China [6]