Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets—and may continue to in the future. Here’s what you need to know: Gold surged above $4,200/oz this week despite Friday’s sharp sell-off, marking its first-ever close at that level. Market anxiety deepened over the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and renewed ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, particularly in the technology sector, which fell nearly 4%, with the Hang Seng Index breaking the support level of 25,700 [1] - The decline is attributed to the risk exposure of U.S. regional banks, but its direct impact on Hong Kong stocks is limited. The resulting decrease in U.S. Treasury yields and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts may be beneficial [1] - The market correction is seen as a result of excessive prior gains, with tariffs also contributing to a suppression of risk appetite [1] Group 2 - In the trading session, only two Hong Kong stock ETFs experienced redemptions, with one related to negative news about two automotive companies. The remaining ETFs saw net inflows, with 13 products collectively gaining over 1.256 billion shares [2] - The Hong Kong technology ETF received significant attention, with a net subscription of 84.85 million shares, indicating strong investor interest despite the market downturn [3] Group 3 - Long-term investors are advised to view the current market adjustment as a buying opportunity, particularly in leading technology and innovative pharmaceutical stocks, which have seen substantial corrections [3] - The copper-to-oil ratio is highlighted as a potential indicator of market trends, with a higher ratio suggesting stronger economic growth and lower inflation, serving as a predictive tool for market movements [3]

特朗普：中国一直在寻求优势。100%的关税不可持续，是他们（中国）逼我这么做的。我们会和中国打好关系，必须达成公平的协议。我们拭目以待。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普称，将于两周后与习近平会面。（接受福克斯新闻访问） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific energy and chemical product, the short - term outlook is mainly "oscillating" [1][3][5][6][8]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the current energy and chemical market is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, international policies, and crude oil price trends. Most product prices are expected to show oscillating trends, with some facing downward pressure due to factors like increased supply or geopolitical influences [1][3][5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices declined. WTI November contract closed down $0.81 to $57.46 per barrel, a 1.39% drop; Brent December contract closed down $0.85 to $61.06 per barrel, a 1.37% drop; SC2511 closed at 435.1 yuan per barrel, down 8.1 yuan per barrel, a 1.83% decline. U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels to 423.8 million barrels last week, and EIA crude oil production reached a record high of 13.64 million barrels per day. India may reduce Russian oil imports. Overall, oil prices will continue to decline under supply - demand pressure [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.94% to 2,694 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2512 rose 0.03% to 3,159 yuan per ton. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased. Short - term high - sulfur fundamentals may be slightly stronger than low - sulfur, but under the pressure of Trump's new tariffs on oil prices, the absolute prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils will oscillate weakly [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2511 rose 0.55% to 3,250 yuan per ton. This week, domestic asphalt shipments increased, but the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased. There is still some construction rush expectation after the holiday, but previous significant production increases may suppress prices. Under the pressure of Trump's new tariffs on oil prices, asphalt will oscillate weakly in the short term, with a smaller decline than crude oil and fuel oil [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures contracts all rose on Thursday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were differentiated, with an average of about 60%. PTA and EG production capacity increased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. Polyester chain prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices in the short term, and cost reduction may stimulate polyester factories' restocking demand [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts RU2601, NR, and BR all rose. The main rubber - producing areas are in normal tapping season. The basis of the 20 - type rubber strengthened, and the inventory of downstream tire products is high. The price of natural rubber will oscillate [5]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol spot prices showed different trends. The domestic supply has recovered, and overseas Iranian devices have resumed production, but future production increases are limited due to winter gas restrictions. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on methanol and short on polyolefins and the positive spread strategy between months [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, polyolefin prices showed different trends. The short - term supply will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand in October will gradually decline. With the weakening of crude oil prices, polyolefin prices will be weak [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC prices in different regions showed oscillating trends. The supply remains high, domestic demand has slowed down, and exports are expected to be weak. The total inventory pressure is large, and PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on October 16 and 15, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - U.S. President Trump said that Indian Prime Minister Modi promised to stop purchasing Russian crude oil, but India did not comment. Some Indian refiners are preparing to reduce Russian oil imports. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed that last week, U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected, and EIA crude oil production reached a record high [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [15][16][17][19][20][22][24][28][29][30]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [31][35][36][39][42][43]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [45][47][50][53][56][58]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It presents the spread charts between different products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [60][65][66][67]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the cash - flow chart of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit charts of PP and LLDPE [69][71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and relevant qualifications [75][76][77][78]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [80].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures - medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds - hold off [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal - range trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - hold off [1][7][8] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper - cautiously hold long positions on dips, avoid chasing highs; Aluminum - wait for a pullback to go long; Nickel - hold off or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - buy on dips; Silver - range trading [1][10][17] - Energy Chemicals: PVC - oscillate weakly; Caustic soda - oscillate; Soda ash - short on 01 contract; Styrene - oscillate weakly; Rubber - oscillate; Urea - oscillate; Methanol - oscillate; Polyolefins - wide - range oscillation [1][22][32] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn - oscillate; PTA - oscillate weakly; Apples - oscillate strongly; Jujubes - oscillate strongly [1][34][36] - Agricultural and Livestock: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range oscillation; Soybean meal - range oscillation; Oils - oscillate strongly [1][38][44] Core Viewpoints - The report provides investment strategies for various futures products based on market analysis, including macro - economic factors, supply - demand dynamics, and international trade situations. It also emphasizes the need to pay attention to key events and data such as policy changes, trade negotiations, and inventory levels [5][7][23] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Index futures: On October 16, A - shares fluctuated, with most stocks falling. Trading volume shrank. Before Sino - US negotiations, the index may continue to oscillate. Medium to long - term, it is bullish, and investors can buy on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: Futures are divided. The trading theme may revolve around Sino - US relations. It is recommended to hold off for now [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal and rebar: Coking coal prices are volatile due to rain and weak demand. Rebar prices may be weak first and then strong in October, with a focus on the 3000 level for the RB2601 contract [7] - Glass: Some companies raised prices slightly, but shipments were restricted. Supply increased, and demand was weak. It is recommended to hold off and focus on production line changes in Shahe [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Global trade tensions and supply disruptions have affected copper prices. Fundamentals are solid, and prices are expected to remain high - level oscillating. It is advisable to hold long positions on dips [10] - Aluminum: Ore prices declined, and production capacity increased slightly. Demand is in the peak season. It is recommended to go long after a pullback [12] - Nickel: Indonesia's new policy may affect supply. Supply is expected to be loose in the medium - long term. It is recommended to hold off or short on rallies [17] - Tin: Supply is tight, and demand is recovering. It is recommended for range trading, with a reference range of 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 11 contract [18][19] - Gold and silver: Due to factors such as delayed non - farm data and expected interest rate cuts, prices are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after a full pullback [19][20] Energy Chemicals - PVC: High supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain exports. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the 01 contract facing pressure at 4800 [23] - Caustic soda: Short - term oscillation, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2380 - 2530 range [24] - Soda ash: Supply is in excess, and prices may decline. Short the 01 contract [32][33] - Styrene: High inventory, weak demand, and expected weak oscillation. Focus on the 6900 resistance level [26] - Rubber: Supply is expected to increase, but raw material prices have a limited downside. It is expected to oscillate, with a focus on the 15000 support level [27][28] - Urea: Supply has increased, and demand is scattered. It is expected to oscillate [29] - Methanol: Supply has recovered, and demand from the main downstream is strong. Inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate [31] - Polyolefins: Supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory has increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the L2601 contract focusing on 6900 support and the PP2601 contract on 6600 support [30][31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Global cotton supply and demand are both increasing, but there is uncertainty between China and the US. It is expected to oscillate with a bearish outlook [34][35] - PTA: Oil prices are weak, and supply - demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the 4350 - 4600 range [35] - Apples: High - quality apples are in high demand, and prices are polarized. It is expected to oscillate strongly [36] - Jujubes: New - season jujubes are about to be harvested. Pay attention to the progress of orchard orders [37] Agricultural and Livestock - Hogs: Supply is high in the short - term, and long - term supply remains under pressure. Short on rallies for 01, 03, 05 contracts; be cautious about bottom - fishing for 07, 09 contracts [38][40] - Eggs: Short - term supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Partially take profit on short positions for the 11 contract; short on rallies for 12, 01 contracts [41][42] - Corn: New crops are coming on the market, and the market is expected to be bearish in the short - term. Look for shorting opportunities on rebounds for the 11 contract [43][44] - Soybean meal: Affected by harvest pressure and slow exports, it is expected to oscillate at low levels [44][45] - Oils: Short - term correction is limited. Look for long - entry opportunities after the correction for 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils [46][51]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline, with all three major indices closing lower. The Dow Jones fell by 0.65% to 45,952.24 points, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.63% to 6,629.07 points, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.47% to 22,562.54 points [4][5][3] - The VIX, a measure of market volatility, surged to its highest level since May, indicating increased investor anxiety [8] Government Funding and Economic Concerns - The U.S. Senate failed to advance a temporary funding bill for the tenth time, as the Republican party requires 60 votes to proceed with the funding plan intended to sustain government operations until the end of November [6] - Economic uncertainty has resurfaced, with concerns about potential credit losses in the banking sector [19] Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector faced significant declines, with the S&P Regional Banking Select Industry Index plummeting by 6.3%, marking its largest drop since April [15] - Major banks such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Bank of America all reported losses, with JPMorgan down over 2% and Citigroup down over 3% [17][18] - Zion Bank's stock fell by 13.1% due to substantial provisions for bad debts, while Western Alliance Bancorporation's stock dropped by 10.8% following fraud allegations against a borrower [14] Commodity Market Movements - Oil prices fell to a five-month low, with WTI crude settling at $57.46 per barrel and Brent crude at $61.06 per barrel, influenced by expectations of increased Russian oil supply following potential discussions between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin [21][20] - Gold prices reached a record high, with spot gold rising by 2.9% to surpass $4,331 per ounce, driven by investor expectations of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [22][23] Technology Sector Developments - Major technology stocks mostly declined, with Tesla down over 1%, Facebook and Apple both down 0.76%, and Amazon down 0.51%. However, Nvidia and Google saw slight gains [10][11] - Apple is preparing to launch a new MacBook Pro featuring a touch display, expected to be released in late 2026 or early 2027, potentially at a higher price point due to increased component costs [12] - Google introduced new services aimed at Microsoft 365 users to address service interruptions, enhancing its competitive position in the market [12]

Market Overview - US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.65% at 45,952.24 points, the S&P 500 down 0.63% at 6,629.07 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.47% at 22,562.54 points [2] - The VIX index surged to its highest level since May, indicating increased market volatility [5] Government Funding and Economic Concerns - The US Senate failed to advance a temporary funding bill for the tenth time, with a vote of 51 to 45, as the government shutdown enters its third week [4] - Economic uncertainty has resurfaced, with expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, though a 25 basis point cut is more likely [4] Banking Sector Performance - Concerns over bad debts in the banking sector led to significant declines in bank stocks, with ZION Bank's stock plummeting 13.1% due to large provisions for bad debts [10] - The S&P Regional Banking Select Industry Index fell 6.3%, marking its largest drop since April [10] - Major banks like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Bank of America all experienced declines, with JPMorgan down 2.25% and Citigroup down 3.52% [11][12] Commodity Prices - Oil prices fell to a five-month low, with WTI crude down 1.4% to $57.46 per barrel and Brent crude also down 1.4% to $61.06 per barrel, amid expectations of increased Russian oil flow [13] - Gold prices reached a record high, with spot gold rising 2.9% to over $4,331 per ounce, driven by expectations of continued monetary easing from the Federal Reserve [13] Technology Sector Developments - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Tesla down over 1%, Facebook down 0.76%, and Apple down 0.76%, while Nvidia and Google saw slight gains [7] - Google launched new services aimed at Microsoft 365 users to address service interruptions, enhancing its competitive position in the market [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that while monetary and fiscal policies are expected to support the European economy, the actual impact is yet to be realized, with marginal weakening observed in Q3 data [3]. Economic Activity - The overall European economy is maintaining a slow recovery, with Eurozone GDP showing a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q2 2025, slightly below Q1 but above market expectations [3]. - The manufacturing PMI showed a slight decline in September after a rapid recovery, while the services PMI remains at a high level [3]. - The Eurozone's economic surprise index has shown a notable weakening since mid-September, driven by disappointing retail sales and investment data [5][3]. Consumption - Consumer spending is steadily recovering, with actual retail growth (excluding automobiles) at 1.3% in August, slightly below pre-pandemic levels [7]. - Consumer confidence remains cautious, with high savings rates and limited willingness to spend, despite rising real wages and a recovering labor market [7]. - Factors supporting continued recovery in consumer demand include rising real wages, declining interest rates, and potential for further decreases in savings rates [7]. Investment - Investment data remains weak in Q2, influenced by tariffs, with only minor improvements in fixed capital investment outside of intellectual property [9]. - Some sectors, like construction, are seeing increased investment activity due to relaxed monetary policy, but investor confidence remains volatile [9]. - Future improvements in investment are anticipated as monetary policy transmission continues and tariff uncertainties diminish [9]. Industrial Production - Industrial production recovery is fragile, with Germany's industrial production index remaining low [11]. - Consumer goods production is relatively strong, while capital goods production growth is weak but shows a recovery trend [11]. - Overall industrial confidence remains weak, but capacity utilization is steadily recovering [11]. Labor Market - The Eurozone unemployment rate remains at historical lows, with wage growth rebounding in Q2 [14]. - Despite a slight weakening in the PMI employment index, real wages continue to rise above inflation levels [14]. Inflation - Headline inflation in the Eurozone is around 2%, with service inflation contributing significantly [17]. - Service inflation was recorded at 3.1% in August, indicating resilience despite downward pressures from tariffs and external competition [17]. - Future wage growth is expected to slow, potentially alleviating some inflationary pressures [17]. Monetary and Credit Conditions - The monetary policy easing cycle is pausing, with credit growth continuing to recover [21]. - The ECB has maintained the policy rate at a neutral level of 2%, with market expectations for minimal rate cuts in the coming year [21]. - Loan demand is recovering, particularly in the housing sector, although there are signs of tightening credit conditions for households [21]. Trade - Eurozone trade data shows a rise in imports and a decline in exports, with July data indicating a 0.1% year-on-year increase in exports and a 3.7% increase in imports [25]. - The decline in export growth is attributed to reduced "export grabbing" towards the U.S., with trade balances showing a significant drop since April [25]. Forward Outlook - The Eurozone economy is expected to see slow recovery in domestic demand, supported by the delayed effects of monetary easing and fiscal policies [27]. - Key areas to monitor include the EU's ability to implement substantial reforms and the extent of consumer recovery amidst high savings rates [27]. - The overall performance of European assets has been stagnant, with equities underperforming global indices since May [27].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor, Michelle Bowman, stated that there has not been a substantial drag on economic growth due to tariffs [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's assessment indicates that tariffs have not significantly impacted the overall economic growth rate [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. budget deficit for 2025 decreased to $1.78 trillion, a reduction of $41 billion or 2.2% compared to fiscal 2024, aided by record tariff collections and a September surplus of $198 billion [2][3]. Group 1: Budget Deficit and Tariff Collections - The federal government experienced a budget shortfall of $1.78 trillion, which is historically high but improved due to a significant increase in customs duties [2][3]. - Tariff collections reached $202 billion for the year, marking a 142% increase from 2024, with September alone contributing $30 billion, a 295% rise year-over-year [3][5]. Group 2: National Debt and Interest Payments - Interest payments on the national debt, which stands at $38 trillion, exceeded $1.2 trillion, nearly $100 billion more than in 2024, indicating a growing financial burden [4]. - Net interest payments, excluding Treasury earnings, totaled $970 billion, surpassing defense spending by $57 billion and ranking just behind Social Security, Medicare, and healthcare costs in the national budget [5]. Group 3: Economic Context and Federal Reserve Response - The fiscal year concluded with the U.S. generating $5.2 trillion in revenue while expenditures exceeded $7 trillion, highlighting a significant fiscal imbalance [6]. - Federal Reserve officials anticipate lowering the benchmark interest rate further, expecting any price increases from tariffs to be temporary, with the current rate set between 4.00% and 4.25% [6].