北京时间7月31日凌晨2点，美联储公布利率决议。 美联储重申等待关税影响明朗化 决议声明称，尽管净出口的波动影响了数据，但最近的指标表明，经济活动继续以稳健的速度扩张。失 业率仍然很低，劳动力市场状况稳健，通货膨胀率有所上升。 FOMC重申，寻求在长期内实现最大就业率和2%的通货膨胀率。经济前景的不确定性有所增加，委员 会关注其双重任务的双向风险。 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以9-2的方式决定维持利率区间在4.25%-4.50%不变。美联储主席鲍威尔 表示，可以在等待关税政策是否推高通胀的同时保持利率稳定。他透露，尚未就9月可能的政策调整"作 出任何决定"。受此影响，美股尾盘跳水，美元指数逼近100大关，国际金价走弱。 鲍威尔认为，一个合理的基本情况可能是，对通胀的影响将是短期的。但他也警告说，征税可能会导致 更持久的通胀变化，"我们的义务是保持长期通胀预期稳定，防止价格水平的一次性上涨成为持续的通 胀问题。" 鲍威尔随后补充说，美联储将密切关注劳动力市场是否有任何疲软迹象。"尽管如此，劳动力市场也存 在下行风险。在未来几个月，我们将收到大量数据，这些数据将有助于我们评估联邦基金利率适当设置 下的风险平衡 ...

北京时间7月31日凌晨，美联储最新的议息决议将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在4.25%-4.5%不变，符 合市场预期。至此，美联储已连续5次会议维持上述利率不变。去年，美联储累计降息100个基点。 在会后的新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，关税上调开始对部分商品价格产生更明显的效果，但 对经济活动和通胀总体的影响仍有待观察。 "我们的义务是保持长期......通胀预期稳定，并防止一次性价格上涨演变为持续的通胀问题。"鲍威尔说 道。 鲍威尔表示，目前，美联储有能力在进一步了解经济可能的走向和风险平衡的演变后，再调整政策立 场。当前的政策立场足以防范通胀风险。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the announcement of personnel changes in Jilin Province, specifically the appointment of Qiu Jiang as the new head of the United Front Work Department of the Jilin Provincial Committee [1] - Qiu Jiang was born in August 1972 and has held various significant positions in Yunnan Province, including Deputy Secretary of Chuxiong Prefectural Committee and Vice Governor of Yunnan Province [1][2][3] - Prior to his new role in Jilin, Qiu Jiang served as the Secretary-General of the Yunnan Provincial Committee [4] Group 2 - The previous head of the United Front Work Department in Jilin, Han Fuchun, was born in February 1965 and currently serves as the Deputy Secretary and Vice Chairman of the Jilin Provincial Political Consultative Conference [5]

美联储最新利率决议出炉。 北京时间7月31日凌晨2点，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率区间维持在4.25%—4.50%不变，符合市场预期。这是美联储连续第五次议息会议决定暂停降息，且并未发 出9月可能降息的信号。 相比利率决议，美联储的内部分歧成为本次议息会议更大的看点。两名美联储官员在本次会议上投出了反对票，都支持降息25个基点。有分析指出，这凸显联储决 策者对关税影响的共识在破裂。 随后，美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的讲话释放了偏"鹰派"的政策信号。 他表示，美联储"尚未就9月是否调整政策做出任何决定"。这一表态令市场对9月降息 甚至年底前再次降息的预期降温 ，美股三大指数一度集体跳水，盘中由涨转跌。 美联储宣布 北京时间7月31日凌晨，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变，这是美联储连续第五次决定维持利率不变。 回顾此前，美联储自去年9月起连续三次会议降息，合计降幅100个基点，但自今年1月美国总统特朗普上任以来，美联储一直"按兵不动"。 值得一提的是，本次暂停降息的决策没有得到全体联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）投票委员的一致支持，其中美联储负责金融监管的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼 ...

澳洲联储副主席：关税的全部影响尚未显现。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to pause interest rate cuts as expected by the market [1][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The FOMC members, including Powell, supported maintaining the current interest rates, while Waller and Bowman advocated for a 25 basis point cut [2][9]. - The statement removed the phrase indicating that economic uncertainty had diminished and reiterated that uncertainty remains high, changing the description of economic growth from "steady expansion" to "moderate growth in the first half of the year" [3][18][20]. - The decision to pause interest rates marks the fifth consecutive meeting without action, following three rate cuts totaling 100 basis points since last September [10][22]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements - This meeting revealed the largest internal disagreement among Fed officials since the rate cut cycle began, with two officials voting against the decision to maintain rates [4][15]. - The dissenting votes from Waller and Bowman highlight a fracture in consensus regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy [4][17]. - Economists view the statement as more dovish than expected, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in September [5][12]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Fed's statement emphasized that economic uncertainty remains high and noted a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year [18][20]. - The labor market appears robust, but inflation remains above target, which traders interpreted as unfavorable for immediate rate cuts [13][24]. - The Fed plans to continue reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, with a slower pace of balance sheet reduction [21][22].

北京时间7月31日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这一决定符合 市场预期，同时也是今年美联储货币政策会议连续第五次决定维持利率不变。 投票结果为9票赞成、2票反对，1位理事缺席未投票。其中，两张反对票来自由美国总统特朗普任命的两位理事——沃勒和鲍曼，他们倾向于支持降息25 个基点，与特朗普的诉求相呼应。这是自1993年以来，美联储理事首次有两名成员投反对票。 特朗普当天稍早前曾表示，维持高利率正在伤害民众，美联储应该降低利率。在利率决议公布前不久，特朗普还预测，美联储此次可能不会降息，但"听 说9月要降息"。美联储主席鲍威尔则强调，目前仍然存在不确定性，美联储尚未就9月会议做出任何决定。 美联储连续第五次维持利率不变 北京时间周四凌晨，美联储公布最新利率决议。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以9比2的投票结果，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之 间不变。 其中，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒和米歇尔·鲍曼投票反对该决定，支持降息25个基点。这是自1993年以来，美联储理事首次有两名成员投反对票。 联邦公开市场委 ...

韩国总统办公室：韩国在美国关于芯片和药品关税上不会比其他国家更糟。 ...

Summary of FOMC Statement Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change, which aligns with market expectations [1] Interest Rate Decision - There was a notable division in the voting, with members Waller and Bowman advocating for a rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two members voted against the majority [2] Inflation Outlook - The FOMC did not alter its inflation language, indicating that inflation remains somewhat elevated [3] Economic Outlook - Economic growth has slowed in the first half of the year, and uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains high [4] Powell's Press Conference Insights - Current policy stance is considered favorable; no decisions have been made regarding the September meeting, and future decisions will rely on incoming data [5] - Core PCE inflation is projected to rise by 2.7% year-over-year in June, while overall PCE is expected to increase by 2.5%; most long-term inflation expectations align with the Fed's target [6] - The economy is viewed as being in a stable position, although indicators suggest a slowdown in growth; the large infrastructure bill is not seen as particularly stimulative [7] - The labor market remains balanced, but there are evident downside risks [8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary, with 30% to 40% of core inflation attributed to tariffs; it is considered premature to assess the full impact of tariffs [9] - The dissenting members are expected to clarify their positions in the coming days, with both advocating for a rate cut [10] Market Reaction - Following the statement, market volatility was minimal; however, during Powell's remarks, gold prices dropped by $50, the dollar strengthened, and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.38% and the 2-year yield approaching 4% [11] - U.S. stock markets faced downward pressure, and Bitcoin briefly fell below $116,000 per coin [12]

加拿大央行在周三宣布维持基准利率在2.75%不变，为连续第三次会议按兵不动。此举符合市场和经济 学家的广泛预期。央行在声明中强调，尽管美国加征关税带来不确定性，若经济进一步走弱、通胀压力 受控，仍可能进一步降息。 此外，央行预计2025年通胀率将从年初预测的2.3%下降至1.9%，部分反映联邦政府取消碳税对消费者 的影响。 加拿大国家银行分析师表示，央行虽然没有明确释放9月17日会议将降息的信号，但当前政策措辞并未 终结宽松周期。加拿大帝国商业银行经济学家则认为，未来经济数据将比本次声明措辞更关键。 新闻发布会期间，央行高级副行长罗杰斯补充称，央行的资产负债管理计划保持不变，目标结算余额区 间仍维持在500亿至700亿加元之间。 麦克勒姆最后指出，尽管近期特朗普政府与多国达成部分贸易协议，缓解了全球贸易战风险，但这些协 议仍暗示美国并未重回"开放贸易"模式。他表示，加拿大出口至美国的有效关税率自年初以来已上升约 5个百分点，加美贸易局势的不确定性正抑制消费者与企业支出意愿。 行长蒂夫.麦克勒姆表示，核心通胀近期虽有反弹，但央行对其持续性并不确定。同时，加元升值正在 抑制进口成本，就业市场也出现缓和迹象，有助于 ...